Kiev Is Burning

[BansheeOne]

9 minutes ago, mkenny said:

I noticed the Russians have an example on display in Moscow in the 'Captured Weapons' display. It  looks undamaged and is in among all the other NATO equipment they collected from Ukraine. Its not in the 'old' clips of this exhibition but a recent one. Was one captured?

 

It is at 14:04

 

It's a Tunguska. The only major Western AFVs captured by Russia are one each AMX-10 RC and CV-9040.

[Roman Alymov]

14 minutes ago, mkenny said:

I noticed the Russians have an example on display in Moscow in the 'Captured Weapons' display. It  looks undamaged and is in among all the other NATO equipment they collected from Ukraine. Its not in the 'old' clips of this exhibition but a recent one. Was one captured?

It is not Gepard but Tunguska ( SA-19 Grison )  And it is standing on opposite side of this display ground  from "Captured" exposition (but it is not obvious from this video - i can tell it as former department head of Patriot Park :)))

Edited November 24, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Josh]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Yes, we know that.  That's why literally just a few days ago yourself, myself and Strannik were discussing whether the Russians might want to to mount  Lancet or Shahed style drones on carrier missiles in order to conduct deeper range strikes with reusable delivery platforms.   At that point you didn't see the reason why they'd want to do that because Ukraine is close by to Russia.  Now, just days later, you can see the reason perfectly.

I don’t see why they would want to do that in the short term because they have no suitable off the shelf platform to achieve that result and Russia can always throw some cruise missiles, or even Iskander, at anything it deems worthy enough. I don’t think such a deployment scheme works against NATO for very different reasons, not the least of which is the lack of ability to maintain a direct link to the munitions. NATO airpower probably also gets a vote as to how many slow drones get to cross into NATO airspace for hundreds of miles.

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

When you say that none of it's "new toys" are capable of overcoming the range problem, well, that's  not quite true.  What it seems from my POV to require is a re-assembly of the existing toys into new toys.  For example, the latest Lancets have AI autonomous targeting capability, but maybe only 70km range.

Prove it. I’ve seen nothing to support autonomous target ID and I believe even Roman was skeptical in one of his posts.

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Shaheds have 1,600 mile range, but can apparently only target by Glonass signal.  So what if they mount the Lancet AI targeting system on the Shahed 1600 mile range drone?

That seems a little generous; I thought more like 1600km. In any case, that would give them a weapon with a flight profile worse than a WWII torpedo bomber. If they are blowing up civilian infrastructure, sure. Any airbase with a Gepard level of air defense is probably going to have sporadic interruptions of service at worst. Any aircraft in a HAS, which most NATO airbases have all the way to the UK, is safe from the dinky non penetrating 20kg/40lb warhead delivered at 100 mph/150kph. This assumes the Russian have that level of terminal homing, which I doubt, see above.

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Then, step two is stockpile 50,000 of them.  That's only 3,300 tons of drones, right?   At 25 a day it would take about 5 years.

 

Again, where is Russia going to get 50,000 autonomous seekers in five years? They almost certainly can’t produce them and China likely can’t provide that many in that time frame even if they wanted to. At a minimum, I know of no Chinese weapon with autonomous target identification capabilities that exists in anywhere like those numbers. If you do, please specify.

I also am skeptical Russia can make 50,000 Shaheds even just using satellite guidance and nothing sophisticated. Is there anything to support that number or is it made up?

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Another example would be the Iskander/Kinzhal complex.  Currently they sport a 1000-1500lbs warhead.  But in the future, and not too distant a one, I think they will be fitted with  AI guided submunitions.  Maybe a missile sprays 50 of the the things over a target and they're self-guiding darts descending from 100,000 feet looking for targets.  Aircraft shelters won't help much - they just require the AI submunition to hit it at hypersonic speeds.

Russia isn’t doing AI and Iskanders aren’t exactly growing on trees right now. Nor will they be. That system would also still leave the majority of NATO bases out of range.

And again, when you talk about AI weapons and autonomous targeting, you speculate about things even China hasn’t fielded. When I talk about US weapons that might have that capability a few years from now, I can mention existing munitions and known development programs like SDB II (everything you want magical Russian Shahed to be guidance wise but a glide bomb) or Golden Hoard (giving munitions swarming intelligence and prioritizing high value target engagement - not AI but a simpler rules based swarm).

Im sure China has there own secret programs, but Russia doesn’t enter the conversation when it comes to AI, and China is hardly going to compromise its capabilities by providing any.

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

It'll be a battle between the air force struggling to maintain operational tempo and the drone and missile forces trying to disrupt that tempo in conjunction with air defenses.

CONUS based units would not be interrupted, even if we buy into your fantasy. A dozen B-52s can deliver 240 JASSMs. A half dozen B-1s can deliver 144. Three B-2s can deliver 240 500# JDAM. The US could maintain that sortie level every day easily without a bomber or even tanker ever touching the ground in Europe, assuming the Russians did to all of NATO what they cannot do to Ukraine.

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

No.   I'm assuming the Americans cannot outproduce the Chinese.

 

The Chinese are a separate fight and thread. It is possible they might sell the Russians weapons in the future, but they are not yet and they most certainly won’t give anything away. For years you have stated that China will enable the Russians and for years, even now with a full on war, they never have. Why would they? If they pick a fight with the US, they will do it directly.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

So they want Russia to stop people who are so eager to reach paradise Garden that are ready to challenge the hardships of Northern Russian weather at winter? It would be humane for Russia to assist this freedom loving men and women (and all other genders), soon to become proud citizens of Finland, in their journey - for example, transport them by warm trains/busses.....

I'm sure Moscow would be more than happy to shut down the flow if Finland stops sending weapons to Ukraine.  But that might not be likely.  Interesting to look at the border and ponder ways for large numbers of civilians to move into Finland.  A big boating club in Vyborg seems logical.  Hiking clubs all over the border region for summer.  But I also see some lakes where enterprising tourists could start their toot on the Russian side and land for some hiking on the Finnish side.  

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by glenn239

[mkenny]

9 minutes ago, Josh said:

For years you have stated that China will enable the Russians and for years, even now with a full on war, they never have. Why would they? If they pick a fight with the US, they will do it directly.

It is no secret China is next on the Neocon hit-list. With a Russian Alliance China secures her food and energy needs across a land border and is  no longer is as  vulnerable to naval blockade.  Russia is China's resource-rich cornucopia.

Edited November 24, 2023 by mkenny

[mkenny]

4 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I'm sure Moscow would be more than happy to shut down the flow if Finland stops sending weapons to Ukraine. 

 

It is amusing to see  how the west believes it can do what it wants to 'sanction'  Russia and they will not be able find ways to return the favour.

[Josh]

6 minutes ago, mkenny said:

It is no secret China is next on the Neocon hit-list. With a Russian Alliance China secures her food and energy needs across a land border and is  no longer is vulnerable to naval blockade.  

The US isn’t going to pick a fight with China so long as China doesn’t pick a fight with Taiwan, the Philippines, or Japan.

The majority of Sino-Russo trade is still by ship, for infrastructure reasons. But more over, why would the PRC waste resources on Europe rather than focus them in its own back yard? Backing Russia is a poor investment. Anything the Chinese want from Russia they can simply buy without any other commitments.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I'm sure Moscow would be more than happy to shut down the flow if Finland stops sending weapons to Ukraine.  A big boating club in Vyborg seems logical.  Hiking clubs all over the border region for summer.  But I also see some lakes where enterprising tourists could start their toot on the Russian side and land for some hiking on the Finnish side.  

 

You forgot to mention ski clubs   

   By the way boeiers (ice yachts) were routinely used in the area in WWII on frozen sea and lakes, and this sport is still alive  -might be useful for people with basic knowlege of sail, but no experience of ski walking.

 

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, Josh said:

Prove it. I’ve seen nothing to support autonomous target ID and I believe even Roman was skeptical in one of his posts.

I was pointing out Lancet "AI" (as former programmer, i would prefer to call it "software") is only detecting and suggesting potential targets/suspicious objects, and locking on one chosen by operator (or just guided by operator - see my earlier post linked below). In theory, if enough Lancets available, it is possible to exclude operator and just lock on any potential target - as target distribution/prioritisation between missiles in salvo was done by Soviet anti-ship missiles 40 years ago, no programming magic in it. 

 

[Josh]

Target priorities are one thing, target recognition is another. Things like facial or vehicle recognition based on imagery are more recent then the Cold War, particularly in disposable munitions. Perhaps Russia has some but I’d want to learn more about it, and I sincerely doubt it’s a capability that Russia can scale the way Glenn thinks it can since no one to my knowledge has.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Josh

[Stefan Kotsch]

AI should not be confused with mathematical algorithms.

 

 

[mkenny]

43 minutes ago, Josh said:

The US isn’t going to pick a fight with China ...............

Even Nelson would baulk at the amount of wilful blindness needed to claim that.

 

 

 

[mkenny]

47 minutes ago, Josh said:

Backing Russia is a poor investment. Anything the Chinese want from Russia they can simply buy without any other commitments.

Russia is resource rich and on a scale that dwarfs any other country which is why 'the west' is so keen on destroying it and exploiting (i.e taking over) the area.  Having access to those riches is a positive for any nation and together the pair are pretty much immune from western sanction. 

 

[Josh]

11 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Even Nelson would baulk at the amount of wilful blindness needed to claim that.

Any US-PRC war will destroy the world economy regardless of who “wins”. Any US government that does that will be immediately voted out of power. Why would any administration even attempt it, assuming it was even possible? What is the benefit?

[Josh]

10 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Russia is resource rich and on a scale that dwarfs any other country which is why 'the west' is so keen on destroying it and exploiting (i.e taking over) the area.  Having access to those riches is a positive for any nation and together the pair are pretty much immune from western sanction. 

 

And anything China wants from Russia it can buy. Why would China do anything more than simply purchase what it wants? It owes Russia nothing, it has not helped Russia to date, and it is the single biggest market for Russian commodities. It can let Russia wither and die and pick over the corpse for goods just by paying cash, just like it is now. Who else is Russia going to sell the bulk of its commodities to? Why would China ever give Russia anything more than the money it owes for goods?

Edited November 25, 2023 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Russia is resource rich and on a scale that dwarfs any other country which is why 'the west' is so keen on destroying it and exploiting (i.e taking over) the area.  Having access to those riches is a positive for any nation and together the pair are pretty much immune from western sanction. 

That explanation is too simplistic and fails to explain why West was not ready to accept decades of comprador Russian elite begging to be allowed to sell resources to West at affordable price in exchange for minor personal benefits for this elite personally plus some basic face-saving gifts that would allow them to keep Russian grassroots under control. More over, West was so eager to get hold of Russian resources that they blew up pipelines that were providing them with free NG (yes it was de-facto free since currency paid for it was first printed monetary eased in unlimited amount, and then returned to Western banks as Russian assets - providing West with de-facto unlimited cycle of prosperity).

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

That explanation is too simplistic and fails to explain why West was not ready to accept decades of comprador Russian elite begging to be allowed to sell resources to West at affordable price in exchange for minor personal benefits for this elite personally plus some basic face-saving gifts that would allow them to keep Russian grassroots under control. More over, West was so eager to get hold of Russian resources that they blew up pipelines that were providing them with free NG (yes it was de-facto free since currency paid for it was first printed monetary eased in unlimited amount, and then returned to Western banks as Russian assets - providing West with de-facto unlimited cycle of prosperity).

I think the west was fine with the status quo until Crimea. Even then, it mostly still traded in most respects until the current misjudgment.

[mkenny]

2 minutes ago, Josh said:

Any US-PRC war will destroy the world economy regardless of who “wins”. Any US government that does that will be immediately voted out of power. Why would any administration even attempt it, assuming it was even possible? What is the benefit?

The 'Exceptionalism' myth? Ego should never be taken out of the equation.  

Is this all  sarcasm because I simply can not accept you don't see what is actually going on. 

The USA does have China firmly in its sights and unless China accepts a USA  'Rules Based' subservient position (which it won't) then resistance/conflict is inevitable from the losing country. 

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

I think the west was fine with the status quo until Crimea. Even then, it mostly still traded in most respects until the current misjudgment.

Crimea reintegration only became possible because of West pushing the situation to the limit of Russian elite facing the choice of finally doing something or loosing the last remains of popularity among Russian public. Note RusGov was reluctant to support Donbass (end entire Eastern Ukraine, as Kharkov, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk were initially more active than Donetsk and Lugansk).

[mkenny]

13 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

 More over, West was so eager to get hold of Russian resources that they blew up pipelines that were providing them with free NG 

It was not 'the west' that blew up the pipeline  and though the victims of this madness have kept their anger private they are for certain furious at the culprits. In The UK they have just announced gas and electricity price rises for January. This is going to all feed into the election expected in the spring and it will almost certainly result in the removal of the current Conservative Government.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58090533

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by mkenny

[mkenny]

The current UK government had a recent purge of the far-right nutcases and appears to be going back to the type of Conservative Party we had before Boris took it over and wrecked it. Cameron is most definitely not looking for a fight with China.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67517955

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, mkenny said:

It was not 'the west' that blew up the pipeline  and though the victims of this madness have kept their anger private they are for certain furious at the culprits. In The UK they have just announced gas and electricity price rises for January. This is going to all feed into the election expected in the spring and it will almost certainly result in the removal of the current Conservative Government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58090533

Who cares about price rises for British (and other) households when it global game of Garden vs. Jungle is on, and global dominance is at stake?   Most people would not even remember the name of current PM, so replacing him with another one will change nothing.

[mkenny]

11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Who cares about price rises for British (and other) households when it global game of Garden vs. Jungle is on, and global dominance is at stake?   Most people would not even remember the name of current PM, so replacing him with another one will change nothing.

Who cares? They people currently fighting to govern the UK. Just like the recent Dutch elections it will result in a different attitude towards the current conflicts. Not much different but different. 'Every little helps' ( © TESCO)

 

[Strannik]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well, only most stupid of it, who failed to change tune when time came.

  Still, there are some positive steps. For example, today former Prime Minister of Russia ( 2000–2004 ) Mikhail Kasyanov was added to list of official foreign agents. Now he is excile. No reason to believe he was less "foreign agent" when he was top Gov official of Russia   - and the logical question to ask is who had appointed him to this job?

Putin iirc.  But at that time Putin was still a believer that Russia would get a seat at the table and otherwise was a rookie.  Now, he is ostracized, Hauge is calling and he is a different man coming full circle vis-a-vis West.

 

 

 

 

 

[bojan]

  

11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Good video from Kremennaya forest, note new 82mm mines and new plastic boxes for them

https://t.me/npo_dvina/12115

Still using silk sawn bags that have to be manually tied down to the projectile for additional charges ? Talk about old school...