Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

Rare 9К55 «Grad-1» MLRS (compact version of Grad, on ZIL-131 chassis, originaly created for Marines) in use by pro-Russians https://t.me/ZParaBellumMD/4341

[Roman Alymov]

   Gepard AA gun somewhere in Kiev region https://t.me/c/1771711124/1849

[glenn239]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

I just don’t think any of their current or near term capabilities are a significantly increased threat compared to pre war. 

I think the Washington neocon 4 dimensional chess  'quagmire' theory is not panning out.  Russian  vehicles and shells will be replaced, Ukrainian loses will not, so NATO has gained nothing and lost quite a bit.

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Their new loitering munition weapons and their future derivatives (Lancet, Shahed) are limited platforms in terms of range, speed, and/or guidance. There’s also the fact that NATO has 1-2 new members as direct result of this war.

The additional members of NATO were already NATO members in all but name, so the gain with Finland and Sweden is on paper, illusory.  The range and AI swarm characteristics of Russian drones are precisely what Russian industry will now seek to improve

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Fair enough, but given the massive technical and numerical discrepancy between Ukraine and NATO, the fact that sorties still happen and manage to land blows on strategic AD sites, air bases, and ports hardly is encouraging for the Russians.

NATO and Russia are not going to have a war.  Once this war is over, Russia is going to assert itself in the former territories of the Soviet Union.  In terms of air defense, one of the problems with Russian pre-war doctrine as I saw it was an overreliance on air defense, rather than investing in offensive tech like drones and missiles.  Thanks to Joe Biden, they are well on the way to correcting this deficiency.

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The US has a much greater ability to deliver large numbers of weapons far deeper behind the front line than any projected Russian UAVS. It also is hardly beyond the ability of NATO to build its own loitering munitions.

Maybe, but planes on the ground are now targets.  In the case of the USAF, big, fat, hugely expensive and impossible to replace quickly targets.

Edited November 24, 2023 by glenn239

[Dark_Falcon]

An armored train-based BMP-2 with a camo paint scheme:

 

 

[Markus Becker]

Dozens of Russian marines were killed by a Ukrainian strike during an awards ceremony in Donetsk Oblast on Nov. 19, the Ukrainian army's strategic communications unit reported on Nov. 22.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-military-dozens-russian-marines-144930115.html

 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

I think the Washington neocon 4 dimensional chess  'quagmire' theory is not panning out.  Russian  vehicles and shells will be replaced, Ukrainian loses will not, so NATO has gained nothing and lost quite a bit.

What has NATO lost? Almost none of the donated equipment was in service. Meanwhile, how many years do you think it will take for Russia to rebuild its modern vehicle fleet and amass anything like its pre war artillery levels? How much of its sovereign wealth fund will be drained running military production in three shifts indefinitely? You act like new Russian equipment production is made from free money and is overwhelming, when most indications are they aren’t even keeping up with losses. A massive buy from North Korea isn’t something they would do if their artillery production was outstripping their consumption, and seems very likely that happened even if we have no direct evidence of it yet.

IMO, Ukraine could surrender tomorrow and NATO would face a Russia with exhausted artillery and vehicle reserves and no ability to quickly fill the gap. And open ended war levels of production will cost them cash for the rest of the decade just to get back to zero. Win for NATO, even if a loss for Ukraine.

 

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The additional members of NATO were already NATO members in all but name, so the gain with Finland and Sweden is on paper, illusory.  The range and AI swarm characteristics of Russian drones are precisely what Russian industry will now seek to improve

You like to add AI to everything and assume it is a game changer without noticing that the US is probably more technologically advanced in the field than China and that Russian is not even a player. The first AI enable swarming munitions will probably be American and they absolutely will not be Russian.

The reason the Russians use so many FPV and man in the loop munitions is because it makes up for their pitiful ISR and strike planning capabilities. There is a huge void in their recon above the Orlan10 level. FPV allows the munitions to be the recon element to help fill that space. It’s a weakness, not a strength, IMO.

 

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

NATO and Russia are not going to have a war.

Then there is no issue, and they are going to waste a lot of money preparing for one.

 

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Once this war is over, Russia is going to assert itself in the former territories of the Soviet Union.

Good luck to them. I don’t think they find themselves as welcome as they were pre war, now that ex Soviets know the emperor has no clothes.

 

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

In terms of air defense, one of the problems with Russian pre-war doctrine as I saw it was an overreliance on air defense, rather than investing in offensive tech like drones and missiles.  Thanks to Joe Biden, they are well on the way to correcting this deficiency.

They have focused on simple munitions with either range or guidance limitations that so far haven’t even been successful enough to bring Ukraine to heel. I don’t think their mopeds or lancets will be anything more than a man annoyance to NATO. One lacks strategic range, one lacks significant guidance, both have fairly tactical sized warheads. Compared to the thousands of JASSMs or tens of thousands of SDB, or > hundred thousand JDAM, they are small potatoes. Again, you seem to assume western production and weapon development hold still while Russia rebuilds.

 

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Maybe, but planes on the ground are now targets.  In the case of the USAF, big, fat, hugely expensive and impossible to replace quickly targets.

US bombers would never even touch the ground in Europe during a conflict. If Russia wants to engage them, it will have to do so internationally. Even F-15Es with twenty SDBs can still carry three drop tanks and be based in England with minimal refueling. Which fancy Russian toy it going to handle those?

If Russia wants to engage NATO aircraft on the ground, it’s going to have to do it at ranges far exceeding its current campaign against the Ukrainian Air Force. And none of its new toys are sufficiently capable for that. I’ll grant you the NATO membership right on the Russian border will have some issues, but that really doesn’t address the USAF at all. If anything, the war proved the Russian strike complex was never going to be nearly as effective as most thought it would be even in their own back yard against a second string player.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Dozens of Russian marines were killed by a Ukrainian strike during an awards ceremony in Donetsk Oblast on Nov. 19, the Ukrainian army's strategic communications unit reported on Nov. 22.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-military-dozens-russian-marines-144930115.html

Probably, they mean recent case, when concert hall in village Kumachevo (Starobeshevo district, about 50 km from frontline) was hit by five HIMARS missiles. There was a concert for military personnel (Army, not Marines) in this hall, and total number of KIA is stated to be from 7 to 25 by most sceprical pro-Russian sources who are newer shy to expose stupidity of top brass who allowed mass events within reach of enemy. The case became widely known as among those killed was theater director and choreographer from StPete Polina Men'shikh

 

One HIMARS hit the scene area

and another exploded in the library above the hall only partly damaging the hall - significantly reducing the effect. see no shrapnel damage on wall and seats

The same case covered by NYT

Video shows Russian actress killed on stage by Ukrainian missile (nypost.com)

Her friends said her groom died fighting in Donbass back in 2014, so it was important for her to take part in events there.

[Perun]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Rare 9К55 «Grad-1» MLRS (compact version of Grad, on ZIL-131 chassis, originaly created for Marines) in use by pro-Russians https://t.me/ZParaBellumMD/4341

Do you have some other linik, I cant see this one

[glenn239]

47 minutes ago, Josh said:

What has NATO lost?

Ukraine.  

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Meanwhile, how many years do you think it will take for Russia to rebuild its modern vehicle fleet and amass anything like its pre war artillery levels?

On artillery shells maybe 4-5 years to replenish a full war reserve.  For vehicles much faster to replace from stores, but modernizing the fleet to fight a modern war?  This will take a long time.

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IMO, Ukraine could surrender tomorrow and NATO would face a Russia with exhausted artillery and vehicle reserves and no ability to quickly fill the gap. 

Frankly, I'm not seeing where armored vehicles in the Ukraine war are making a case for being indispensable to modern warfare.  

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Ukraine.  

First and foremost, NATO (or, rather, West) lost Russia, turning loyal junior parthner controlled by West-dependent elite into enemy.

[Strannik]

30 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

First and foremost, NATO (or, rather, West) lost Russia, turning loyal junior parthner controlled by West-dependent elite into enemy.

That and Ukraine.

And EU will have already lost and continue to loose competitiveness due to lost access to cheap Rus energy.  Which depending on the circumstances of how it will all go over next few years can undermine EU proper and/or particular countries transatlantic special relationship.

Russia will gain at least a part of UA and the rest would be rendered harmless as far as a functioning Western anti-Rus outpost.

And the Rus comprador class has been dealt a permanent blow.

To summarize: tactical losses  but strategic gains.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Strannik

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

If Russia wants to engage NATO aircraft on the ground, it’s going to have to do it at ranges far exceeding its current campaign against the Ukrainian Air Force. And none of its new toys are sufficiently capable for that.

Yes, we know that.  That's why literally just a few days ago yourself, myself and Strannik were discussing whether the Russians might want to to mount  Lancet or Shahed style drones on carrier missiles in order to conduct deeper range strikes with reusable delivery platforms.   At that point you didn't see the reason why they'd want to do that because Ukraine is close by to Russia.  Now, just days later, you can see the reason perfectly.   

When you say that none of it's "new toys" are capable of overcoming the range problem, well, that's  not quite true.  What it seems from my POV to require is a re-assembly of the existing toys into new toys.  For example, the latest Lancets have AI autonomous targeting capability, but maybe only 70km range.  The Shaheds have 1,600 mile range, but can apparently only target by Glonass signal.  So what if they mount the Lancet AI targeting system on the Shahed 1600 mile range drone?    Then, step two is stockpile 50,000 of them.  That's only 3,300 tons of drones, right?   At 25 a day it would take about 5 years.

Another example would be the Iskander/Kinzhal complex.  Currently they sport a 1000-1500lbs warhead.  But in the future, and not too distant a one, I think they will be fitted with  AI guided submunitions.  Maybe a missile sprays 50 of the the things over a target and they're self-guiding darts descending from 100,000 feet looking for targets.  Aircraft shelters won't help much - they just require the AI submunition to hit it at hypersonic speeds.  

 

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Compared to the thousands of JASSMs or tens of thousands of SDB, or > hundred thousand JDAM, they are small potatoes. 

It'll be a battle between the air force struggling to maintain operational tempo and the drone and missile forces trying to disrupt that tempo in conjunction with air defenses.  

 

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Again, you seem to assume western production and weapon development hold still while Russia rebuilds.

No.   I'm assuming the Americans cannot outproduce the Chinese.

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

Another example would be the Iskander/Kinzhal complex.  Currently they sport a 1000-1500lbs warhead.  But in the future, and not too distant a one, I think they will be fitted with  AI guided submunitions

With Ai guided submunitions? AI? And not too distant a one? I think that's an illusion.

[Sardaukar]

7 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

With Ai guided submunitions? AI? And not too distant a one? I think that's an illusion.

It's "glennspace".

Bit detached from reality. 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

And the Rus comprador class has been dealt a permanent blow.

Well, only most stupid of it, who failed to change tune when time came.

  Still, there are some positive steps. For example, today former Prime Minister of Russia ( 2000–2004 ) Mikhail Kasyanov was added to list of official foreign agents. Now he is excile. No reason to believe he was less "foreign agent" when he was top Gov official of Russia   - and the logical question to ask is who had appointed him to this job?

Edited November 24, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

With Ai guided submunitions? AI? And not too distant a one? I think that's an illusion.

We shall see. If you watch some of the updates on the internet these days, the most modern Lancet version is reported to be able to acquire targets on their own now.  

Edited November 24, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

Finland is now telling the Russians that they must stop allowing migrants to flow across their border,

Finland shuts more Russia border points, says asylum inflow must stop (msn.com)

Russia must stop sending illegal migrants to its frontier with Finland in what amounts to a "hybrid attack", Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Friday, after the Nordic nation temporarily shut all border passenger crossings bar one.

 

[Roman Alymov]

20 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Finland is now telling the Russians that they must stop allowing migrants to flow across their border,

Finland shuts more Russia border points, says asylum inflow must stop (msn.com)

Russia must stop sending illegal migrants to its frontier with Finland in what amounts to a "hybrid attack", Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Friday, after the Nordic nation temporarily shut all border passenger crossings bar one.

So they want Russia to stop people who are so eager to reach paradise Garden that are ready to challenge the hardships of Northern Russian weather at winter? It would be humane for Russia to assist this freedom loving men and women (and all other genders), soon to become proud citizens of Finland, in their journey - for example, transport them by warm trains/busses.....

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

With Ai guided submunitions? AI? And not too distant a one? I think that's an illusion.

It depends on your definition of AI - for example, AT landmine got basic "AI"  - is able to tell tank from foot soldier.....

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 minute ago, Roman Alymov said:

is able to tell tank from foot soldier.....

Thats not AI. 

[X-Files]

How 'dummy tanks' and decoys in Ukraine war help deceive enemy forces (msn.com)

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Thats not AI. 

There is a famous quote from great Polish Sci-Fi writer Stanisław Lem : "The intelligence of a bee is quite enough for an ordinary soldier, as long as he is transformed accordingly. Combat effectiveness and intelligence are different things, at least on the battlefield."

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

With Ai guided submunitions? AI? And not too distant a one? I think that's an illusion.

It’s not the most sophisticated tech though. US has something quite similar where individual cluster bomblets can detect a target on the ground, spin towards its and detonate an EFP at a certain distance. 
 

US used it once in Iraq over an Iraqi armored division (this was back in 2003). The only concern I have is that it was dropped from a B-52, and no mention was made on just how many individual bombs were dropped to have the intended effect. 
 

Given that two decades since then, I’m assuming the tech is probably refined. And something from 2003 tech wise is probably something the Russians can easily achieve. Just a matter of then actually doing it and implicitly it…they seem to have prototypes but never go beyond that..

[mkenny]

7 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

   Gepard AA gun somewhere in Kiev region https://t.me/c/1771711124/1849

I noticed the Russians have an example on display in Moscow in the 'Captured Weapons' display. It  looks undamaged and is in among all the other NATO equipment they collected from Ukraine. Its not in the 'old' clips of this exhibition but a recent one. Was one captured?

 

It is at 14:04

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by mkenny

[glenn239]

47 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Thats not AI. 

 

 

Around the 40 second mark, indicates that the newest Lancet, something called product 53, flies in swarms and communicates amongst themselves to find targets and share targeting information.   Now, in Glenn space, it's a shit ton harder for drones to hunt and find tanks on a huge battlefield than it is for them to be dropped near the target and search an airbase looking for big fat airplanes sitting on the tarmac.  

System is indicated as being in service now.  If you look at the launch cannisters (around the 1:14 mark), they look like they could be adapted to a custom designed missile, maybe 8 per round. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by glenn239