Kiev Is Burning

[BansheeOne]

As always, divide claims about enemy losses by the other side by three and work from there.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Josh]

13 hours ago, mkenny said:

The basis for your claim of ' eye watering costs' is?

There is shortage of equipment littering the area.

[Strannik]

Uke air flight commander defected with his Su-27 to Rus.  A media event is forthcoming.

[seahawk]

36 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Uke air flight commander defected with his Su-27 to Rus.  A media event is forthcoming.

Great news!

[Stuart Galbraith]

44 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Uke air flight commander defected with his Su-27 to Rus.  A media event is forthcoming.

'Ruaf takes delivery of 4th generation fighter!'

[Daan]

Ukrainian infantry squad on the attack, supported by a YPR:

This channel has much 1st person footage.

[Angrybk]

On a whim I subscribed to what I think(?) are the two Substacks that are getting all the attention for telling The Truth(tm) about the war (Simplicitus the Thinker and Big Serge) and the goal-post-moving is just hilarious.

Russia invades a smaller country next door with the expectation of an immediate pushover victory only to be met with desperate, very-surprisingly-successful resistance followed by massive amounts of NATO aid, the destruction of much of Russia's warfighting capability, Ukraine launches a counter-attack that ends up to be a stalemate and they're like "why is the West lying about Russia's victory!"

Edited November 18, 2023 by Angrybk

[Yama]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

'Ruaf takes delivery of 4th generation fighter!'

Su-27 is 3rd generation...

Saw the claim, but no evidence provided yet. Probably the story is very least exaggerated.

Meanwhile, interview of Ukrainian company commander, who was seriously wounded in June offensive:

https://censor.net/ru/resonance/3453607/komandir_roti_47_brigadi_mikola_melnik_rosyani_znali_nash_shlyahi_visuvannya_tudi_letlo_vse_152t_120t

Machine translated and some choice bits:

-He volunteered back in 2014 already, and underwent quite a long training in USA in 2022-23 in preparation for the offensive.

-Says that some of the "ATO veterans" were not terribly useful in counteroffensives, as they only know how to hide in trenches. Interestingly this matches the critique of a Finnish officer who trained Ukrainians.

-During the training period he and other people kept getting reassigned, kicked around like a football, and it frustrated them. 

-He's quite positive about training in USA. To quote, "in Ukrainian army they show you a BMP, but give no fuel, no ammo, and tell them to not touch anything lest it breaks". By contrast all resources were plentiful in US and they got to drive Bradley around until they knew it inside out.

-He thinks Bradley is great compared to BMP-2 (which he calls 'Battle grave') as it can soak much more damage and yet personnel inside survives. Only thing it couldn't handle was helicopters and their heavy ATGM's.

-Battle plan for summer offensive was rather optimistic, Robotyne was Day 1 objective (!). He thinks that assumption was that Russians would run away, like in Kharkiv offensive. He says his brigade did well in initial battle nevertheless, but he was wounded as he stepped into a mine, he thinks it may have been MLRS deployed 'butterfly mine' as Russians were laying down craploads of them.

-Amusingly, tactical objectives were codenamed after soccer clubs. There was 'Benfica position', Real, Dynamo...

-His leg is a goner as it got infected during medevac chaos. He would like to return to some sort of role in defending Ukraine, but says he "doesn't have enough limbs left" to participate in future offensives. 

[mkenny]

23 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

and the goal-post-moving is just hilarious.

Isn't it just.

 

23 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

Russia invades a smaller country next door with the expectation of an immediate pushover victory only to be met with desperate, very-surprisingly-successful resistance followed by massive amounts of NATO aid, the destruction of much of Russia's warfighting capability, Ukraine launches a counter-attack that ends up to be a stalemate and they're like "why is the West lying about Russia's victory!"

Or:

Russia invades a smaller country and negotiates a deal where they get almost  all they want.

They  withdraw from the  Kiev area because the Ukrainians appear to be serious and they have  initialed the deal.

The USA, The UK and Germany tell Ukraine NOT to sign the deal and they will bankroll them.

They promise they will  isolate, bankrupt and destroy the Russian economy in just a few months and that it will be an assured Ukrainian win.

The Ukrainians then attack and the Russian fall back into the territory they  really want and no further.

The Ukrainians launch their much hyped summer offensive where the war-winning game-changing high-tech western wunder-waffen are expected to sweep the Russian out of the Crimea in  week and then out of Ukraine.

Ukrainian offensive gains a couple of miles in 4 months, is quietly forgotten about and then claimed to  'not' have been an offensive after all!

The Western Economic War on Russia is a total failure. 

 

 

Which side  do you believe is closest to its objectives?

 

 

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

Su-27 is 3rd generation...

Saw the claim, but no evidence provided yet. Probably the story is very least exaggerated.

Meanwhile, interview of Ukrainian company commander, who was seriously wounded in June offensive:

https://censor.net/ru/resonance/3453607/komandir_roti_47_brigadi_mikola_melnik_rosyani_znali_nash_shlyahi_visuvannya_tudi_letlo_vse_152t_120t

Machine translated and some choice bits:

-He volunteered back in 2014 already, and underwent quite a long training in USA in 2022-23 in preparation for the offensive.

-Says that some of the "ATO veterans" were not terribly useful in counteroffensives, as they only know how to hide in trenches. Interestingly this matches the critique of a Finnish officer who trained Ukrainians.

-During the training period he and other people kept getting reassigned, kicked around like a football, and it frustrated them. 

-He's quite positive about training in USA. To quote, "in Ukrainian army they show you a BMP, but give no fuel, no ammo, and tell them to not touch anything lest it breaks". By contrast all resources were plentiful in US and they got to drive Bradley around until they knew it inside out.

-He thinks Bradley is great compared to BMP-2 (which he calls 'Battle grave') as it can soak much more damage and yet personnel inside survives. Only thing it couldn't handle was helicopters and their heavy ATGM's.

-Battle plan for summer offensive was rather optimistic, Robotyne was Day 1 objective (!). He thinks that assumption was that Russians would run away, like in Kharkiv offensive. He says his brigade did well in initial battle nevertheless, but he was wounded as he stepped into a mine, he thinks it may have been MLRS deployed 'butterfly mine' as Russians were laying down craploads of them.

-Amusingly, tactical objectives were codenamed after soccer clubs. There was 'Benfica position', Real, Dynamo...

-His leg is a goner as it got infected during medevac chaos. He would like to return to some sort of role in defending Ukraine, but says he "doesn't have enough limbs left" to participate in future offensives. 

Some peculiar tidbits like "we were making up to 74 shots daily in training [from Bushmaster]",   "but the tankers never fired from the "Leopard"! "Don't worry, they did in the T-72!"

On the ability to maneuver:  "And the situation was quite simple: ATGMs in every landing.  The Russians knew our routes of advance, and everything flew along these routes - the 152nd, 120th, and Grad.. So you are leaving, and where will you maneuver? Only back and forth because everything else is mined.  By us btw."

Edited November 19, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

Also nice that apparently all that West trained force is severely mauled, except for his company of course:

"Yes, it was chaos.  Due to this chaos, some companies finished in 15 minutes, some - in 30, other brigades  demonstrated "records".  My company didn't run out, we had minimal losses.  Yes, vehicles were hit.  I was the first to be hit, the 152nd got us.."

[Strannik]

And this is from the author who is a self proclaimed nationalist and proud that one side of his family served in Hitlerjugend and the second one in UPA:

"I don't think that there is even one person who wants to join the army.  But... We all want to continue to defend Ukraine."

[Yama]

7 minutes ago, Strannik said:

And this is from the author who is a self proclaimed nationalist and proud that one side of his family served in Hitlerjugend and the second one in UPA:

"I don't think that there is even one person who wants to join the army.  But... We all want to continue to defend Ukraine."

I think that was in jest, note his comment about not getting enough sleep...

[Strannik]

10 minutes ago, Yama said:

I think that was in jest, note his comment about not getting enough sleep...

In jest was about him, because he is a "terminator"

[Detonable]

On 11/17/2023 at 8:20 AM, mandeb48 said:

For debate: Finishing off seriously wounded people on the battlefield. A drone cannot provide aid nor intimate surrender but it can finish off. Is it a crime or is an injured person still a legitimate target? What do you think?:

 https://lostarmour.info/news/drone_23_11_16_01_rusich_army +18

  That was painful to watch.

[mkenny]

14 minutes ago, Detonable said:

  That was painful to watch.

No different to Allied airmen incinerating German babies in WW2. 

[sunday]

53 minutes ago, mkenny said:

No different to Allied airmen incinerating German babies in WW2. 

Ahem... Planes do not take prisoners. Regardless of the side.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, Yama said:

Su-27 is 3rd generation...

Saw the claim, but no evidence provided yet. Probably the story is very least exaggerated.

Meanwhile, interview of Ukrainian company commander, who was seriously wounded in June offensive:

https://censor.net/ru/resonance/3453607/komandir_roti_47_brigadi_mikola_melnik_rosyani_znali_nash_shlyahi_visuvannya_tudi_letlo_vse_152t_120t

Machine translated and some choice bits:

-He volunteered back in 2014 already, and underwent quite a long training in USA in 2022-23 in preparation for the offensive.

-Says that some of the "ATO veterans" were not terribly useful in counteroffensives, as they only know how to hide in trenches. Interestingly this matches the critique of a Finnish officer who trained Ukrainians.

-During the training period he and other people kept getting reassigned, kicked around like a football, and it frustrated them. 

-He's quite positive about training in USA. To quote, "in Ukrainian army they show you a BMP, but give no fuel, no ammo, and tell them to not touch anything lest it breaks". By contrast all resources were plentiful in US and they got to drive Bradley around until they knew it inside out.

-He thinks Bradley is great compared to BMP-2 (which he calls 'Battle grave') as it can soak much more damage and yet personnel inside survives. Only thing it couldn't handle was helicopters and their heavy ATGM's.

-Battle plan for summer offensive was rather optimistic, Robotyne was Day 1 objective (!). He thinks that assumption was that Russians would run away, like in Kharkiv offensive. He says his brigade did well in initial battle nevertheless, but he was wounded as he stepped into a mine, he thinks it may have been MLRS deployed 'butterfly mine' as Russians were laying down craploads of them.

-Amusingly, tactical objectives were codenamed after soccer clubs. There was 'Benfica position', Real, Dynamo...

-His leg is a goner as it got infected during medevac chaos. He would like to return to some sort of role in defending Ukraine, but says he "doesn't have enough limbs left" to participate in future offensives. 

I know, I was blatently taking the piss about Russia's capacity to over inflate any success.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, mkenny said:

Isn't it just.

 

Or:

Russia invades a smaller country and negotiates a deal where they get almost  all they want.

They  withdraw from the  Kiev area because the Ukrainians appear to be serious and they have  initialed the deal.

The USA, The UK and Germany tell Ukraine NOT to sign the deal and they will bankroll them.

They promise they will  isolate, bankrupt and destroy the Russian economy in just a few months and that it will be an assured Ukrainian win.

The Ukrainians then attack and the Russian fall back into the territory they  really want and no further.

The Ukrainians launch their much hyped summer offensive where the war-winning game-changing high-tech western wunder-waffen are expected to sweep the Russian out of the Crimea in  week and then out of Ukraine.

Ukrainian offensive gains a couple of miles in 4 months, is quietly forgotten about and then claimed to  'not' have been an offensive after all!

The Western Economic War on Russia is a total failure. 

 

 

Which side  do you believe is closest to its objectives?

 

 

Or, put another way, Russia gets its Sudetenland, and will desire no more European conquests?

You can go to Putins Crimean address of 2014, where he takes to task Western critics like myself when we suggest he will carve off more Ukrainian territory. 'We dont need that' he says.

And still you take his word as his bond. Why?

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603

I also want to address the people of Ukraine. I sincerely want you to understand us: we do not want to harm you in any way, or to hurt your national feelings. We have always respected the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state, incidentally, unlike those who sacrificed Ukraine’s unity for their political ambitions. They flaunt slogans about Ukraine’s greatness, but they are the ones who did everything to divide the nation. Today’s civil standoff is entirely on their conscience. I want you to hear me, my dear friends. Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea. We do not want to divide Ukraine; we do not need that. As for Crimea, it was and remains a Russian, Ukrainian, and Crimean-Tatar land.

 

There were a good many folks here whom suggested I was 'anti Russian' back in 2014 when I suggested such things. I note none of them have issued retractions since.

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Stuart Galbraith

[Pavel Novak]

On 11/17/2023 at 6:21 PM, glenn239 said:

The price of Russia doing that is Ukraine can now attack Russian soil in return, but with Denmark I rather suspect that they would want to do a blockade and without being a military target in return?  

I think that Russia expected that nobody would do anything with that and Ukraine would fold quicky in subsequent invasion - might makes right thinking.

On 11/17/2023 at 6:34 PM, glenn239 said:

That's exactly how I think of Ukraine and Russia.

I understand this.

Imagine if Russia was for the whole time explaining that they have just problem with Ukraine. That they respect others and have no desire for anything else. Kinda what Hitler did up to 1938.

But what Russian officials actually says and I wrote this here so many times already and not a single opponent against helping Ukraine even tried to response to it --- Russia officially demanded NATO 1997 border. Please look at map how far west it is.

And this is not some kind of political rumbling so one can say ok he just wrote that book about some kampf but in politcal reality he will be moderate. No, this is actually what they presented officially. If we look at crazy political rumbling we can find that saying from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

And now imagine if Ukraine fold in that three days. Will it be end? Or rather on fourth day also Moldavia falls? We have saying with food taste increases. So please explain to me what is realistic approach to this threat.

 

[seahawk]

Would be a 1997 NATO be bad for any relevant country?

[Pavel Novak]

25 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Would be a 1997 NATO be bad for any relevant country?

It would be just first step for from Lisbon to Vladivostok dream.

[Perun]

1 minute ago, Pavel Novak said:

It would be just first step for from Lisbon to Vladivostok dream.

That was good plan but unfortunately didnt work

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Pavel Novak said:

It would be just first step for from Lisbon to Vladivostok dream.

And that would be bad - because?