Kiev Is Burning

[mkenny]

Demographics  

 

 

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/ukraine-sitrep-bad-demographics-end-of-support.html

[Strannik]

3 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Demographics  

 

 

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/ukraine-sitrep-bad-demographics-end-of-support.html

Yep.  Eligible 30-40-50 yo are hard to catch ;)

In end of May Rada (Uke parliament) lowered conscription age from 27 to 25.

Current suggestion to go to 20.

[Roman Alymov]

Results of what is believed to be 1500kg JDAMsky hit of underground command bunker of "Soledar" tactical group, the same bunker President Zelensky have visited in August. Reportedly a number of high-ranked personnel killed, injured survivors, including froreigners, urgently evacuated to Poland.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/99263

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/99206

Edited October 3, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[R011]

On 9/30/2023 at 1:13 PM, BansheeOne said:

Actually, the US kept the UK afloat even after the war, extending a 4.34 bn dollar loan in 1945, at the time double the size of the entire British economy. The Brits were a little miffed since they had expected a gift in recognition of their expenses in lives and treasures during the war, particularly in the two years before the US got in; but they had to accept since they were indebted by about that sum while their foreign income had halved over the war. They eventually paid off the last rate in 2006. Canada also granted another 1.25 bn.

The loan was at extremely low interest and payments were stertched out for half a century with the option to skip a year or so if necessary.

[seahawk]

8 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Results of what is believed to be 1500kg JDAMsky hit of underground command bunker of "Soledar" tactical group, the same bunker President Zelensky have visited in August. Reportedly a number of high-ranked personnel killed, injured survivors, including froreigners, urgently evacuated to Poland.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/99263

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/99206

Hope they got a lot of high ranking fascists.

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 hours ago, R011 said:

The loan was at extremely low interest and payments were stertched out for half a century with the option to skip a year or so if necessary.

Dont fancy doing that again, do you?

 

[RETAC21]

2 hours ago, seahawk said:

Hope they got a lot of high ranking fascists.

But of course:

[Josh]

Heard a report that elements of 3-4 VDV divisions are attempting a pincer of the Robotyne pocket.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Josh

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thats like 2 or 3 Brigades then.

'Steiner, vere is Steiner?' etc etc etc.

[Perun]

On 9/30/2023 at 10:27 PM, Roman Alymov said:

Iskander (or Tornado  -not known for sure) strikes on pro-Ukrainian training ground and railway train being loaded with vehicles. Note dense fragments hit field https://t.me/milinfolive/107314?single

How large is radius of fragments hit zone

Edited October 4, 2023 by Perun

[Colin]

On 9/29/2023 at 7:19 PM, mkenny said:

The same way all the previous 'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'    did? 

NATO air power as a whole would deplete the Russian missile stocks far faster than they can produce them. I think NATO would be initially shocked at the loss ratio of their aircraft. But they would eventually adapt and be able to force the Russian AD back to the point where their frontline is now exposed to fairly constant air attack. While the R37M is still a major threat, the Russian Air Force is going to have to operate in a very hostile environment and won't be able to venture forward and will have to stay in their AD bubble. 

That change then makes it harder to stop mine clearing activity and makes Russian artillery even more vulnerable than they are now. It would also mean at least another 250,000 fresh, well trained and equipped troops into the fight, supported by the Ukrainians forces. 

[Colin]

On 9/30/2023 at 6:05 AM, ex2cav said:

Nah, the British had an empire to draw from. The US helped alot, but the empire had plenty to draw from to continue without direct support. Secondly, the Germans couldn't get across the channel. You are comparing apples and oranges again. 

I don't think the US ever paid the British salaries to keep them in the fight. This is a whole another level of support that belies the Ukrainians don't have an economy. The British manufactured plenty of their own equipment. The Ukies need Nato replacements or very little would be available.

If the Ukrainian nationalists want to keep fighting the US will support them. The stated goal of Nato is to drain the Russians, so they are likely telling the Ukies whatever they want to hear to keep them fighting. However, if the US says "stop", and cuts the money and supplies off, the Ukie government and army collapse. Your logic doesn't make sense. 

That said, the US is not going to want another US supported "friendly" government collapse. They will rather watch Ukraine burn than pull out. It will take a major  change in US politics for that to happen. There is a presidential election in 2024, and they have indicted the main presidential challenger with all sorts of crimes to try and cut him off at the knees. We will see. 

Ukraine  is a bit more like South Korea in the early days of the Korean war and aftermath. Lot's of internal issues to fix and the US supported them through it.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Perun said:

How large is radius of fragments hit zone

Well, here is what looks to be standard Soviet passanger railway car (usually DDR-made, Ukr trains were known for their old passanger cars well before 2014)

Here are the dimensions

http://caredenis.ru/resources/techsr/html/IMG/09/img0901.jpg

You could calculate the radius yourself according to where it end up to you -as for me it is about 75m

 

[Colin]

On 10/1/2023 at 1:33 PM, bojan said:

Most explosions of projectile in the bore is not due the faulty fuse but due the cracks in explosive filler, which can lead to  unintentional detonation or deflagration of explosive filler during acceleration. Same can happen with some fillers if due the repeated heating and cooling explosive starts developing crystals.

Also, if bore is worn enough or projectile driving band is bad, projectile can wobble and hit muzzle break on way out.

Our C3 are showing signs of cracking where the barrel was machined for the threads that hold the muzzle break. It's hard to avoid making a 90 degree cut in the metal which acts as a crack propagator. 

[Perun]

24 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well, here is what looks to be standard Soviet passanger railway car (usually DDR-made, Ukr trains were known for their old passanger cars well before 2014)

Here are the dimensions

http://caredenis.ru/resources/techsr/html/IMG/09/img0901.jpg

You could calculate the radius yourself according to where it end up to you -as for me it is about 75m

 

Thanks.

I mesured 150 m

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Perun said:

Thanks.

I mesured 150 m

It depends on how you define fragments hit zone - no doubt some fragments will go even further than 150m. 

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

Heard a report that elements of 3-4 VDV divisions are attempting a pincer of the Robotyne pocket.

Read that two days ago. Unsure what the results will be given that Ukraine has a lot at stake there and won’t necessarily let Robotyne fall. I expect the pincer to fail 

[mkenny]

2 hours ago, Colin said:

NATO air power as a whole would deplete the Russian missile stocks far faster than they can produce them. I think NATO would be initially shocked at the loss ratio of their aircraft. But they would eventually adapt and be able to force the Russian AD back to the point where their frontline is now exposed to fairly constant air attack. While the R37M is still a major threat, the Russian Air Force is going to have to operate in a very hostile environment and won't be able to venture forward and will have to stay in their AD bubble. 

That change then makes it harder to stop mine clearing activity and makes Russian artillery even more vulnerable than they are now. It would also mean at least another 250,000 fresh, well trained and equipped troops into the fight, supported by the Ukrainians forces. 

As the Spartan said. 'If'.

[R011]

14 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Dont fancy doing that again, do you?

 

I didn't the first time.  As for my country, I don't know what terms Canada requested for wartime and post-war aid.

[KV7]

12 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Read that two days ago. Unsure what the results will be given that Ukraine has a lot at stake there and won’t necessarily let Robotyne fall. I expect the pincer to fail 

I suspect some of this is Russia talking up various threats as an attempt to make Ukraine more cautious, not for military reasons as much as they want the political heat associated with Ukraine offensive to go away. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 hours ago, R011 said:

I didn't the first time.  As for my country, I don't know what terms Canada requested for wartime and post-war aid.

I hope you twisted our arm, you had earned it.

[Roman Alymov]

JDAMsky(?) vs. small landing groups near Antonovsky bridge: pro-Ukrainains (or, more correct, NATO command) are exchanging the lives of their infantry in cheap boats on relatively expencive RusAF munitions https://t.me/dva_majors/26770

[Roman Alymov]

Fresh-looking Leopard-2 stuck in trench somewhere near Rabotino, probably result of night driving https://t.me/infomil_live/430

P.S. Minor shrapnel/bullet damage visible on closeup https://t.me/milinfolive/107568

Edited October 5, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[mkenny]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Fresh-looking Leopard-2 stuck in trench somewhere near Rabotino, probably result of night driving https://t.me/infomil_live/430

P.S. Minor shrapnel/bullet damage visible on closeup https://t.me/milinfolive/107568

Its been there since the end of July. This drone strike was on the RH running gear and a small fire is started. A second drone hit on the back of the turret/engine deck also started a fire.

 

 

 

 

Fire after the second drone hit  

 

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by mkenny

[seahawk]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

JDAMsky(?) vs. small landing groups near Antonovsky bridge: pro-Ukrainains (or, more correct, NATO command) are exchanging the lives of their infantry in cheap boats on relatively expencive RusAF munitions https://t.me/dva_majors/26770

Win-win for NATO. A dead pro-Ukrainian is a dead Russian, as is a dead pro-Russian. The goal of NATO is to kill Russians and destroy Russia.