Kiev Is Burning

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

With all my respect to great Slovak nation, support for Ukraine from Slovakia is definitely not the decicive factor of this war.

You're trying to say that Slovakia turning its back on the war is a blow to Russia.  That makes no sense.  Every NATO country that says, "we're done with this stupid war" is a blow to NATO and a victory for Russia, because what Slovakia does today Italy might do next week and Germany next month.  Eventually, if Trump wins in 2024 and Moscow plays its diplomatic cards right, it might be Russia, the UK and the Poles, with the President saying, "NATO is not involved".

Quote

The problem with your logic is that many of this people are decorated veterans with years of frontline exoperience, and they will be the people dieing in process of "Russian army falls flat on its face". One of this people, whom i know personally for years, was injured last year while defending Krasny Liman in improvised volunteer unit

The Ukrainians have fired millions of drone-directed artillery rounds and tens of thousands of GPS directed HIMARS rounds.  I am amazed, quite frankly, that the Russians have managed to keep their casualties as low as they have.  

Quote

Actually the closer are people to frontline, or more engaged they are in volunteer support of Army, the less illusions they got about big brass&Co "know what they are doing". 

Said the grunts of every army in every war of all time.  

Edited October 2, 2023 by glenn239

[Markus Becker]

A Ukrainian soldier called up Russian tech support when his captured Russian tank wouldn't start: report

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-soldier-russian-tech-support-captured-russian-tank-wouldnt-work-2023-10

 

It would be the strangest think to have happened so far. 

[Josh]

25 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Sorry, but the graph says the number of fires have increased?   What you want to know is whether the number of Russian troop casualties have increased to cluster rounds.  That has nothing to do with forest fires.  I think that is related to the fact that it's the dry season over there?

The graph seems to very likely indicate that the volume of Ukrainian artillery fire has increased relative to the volume of Russian artillery fire. Weather conditions would effect both sides more or less equally. Cluster munitions might be superior at starting fires, giving an outsized signal compared to the Russia side of the chart, but the difference between the two readings is great enough it seems very unlikely that this was due to ammunition type alone. That I consider significant.

I agree that this doesn't tell us anything directly about casualties, but it does support the argument that Ukraine has met or exceeded artillery parity with the Russians. I've read reports that one rocket and two howitzer independent artillery brigades are actively working over the Russian positions around the Robotyne pocket. If that is true, then it is very possible the Russians are on the wrong side of the attrition equation in this sector.

[Josh]

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

You're trying to say that Slovakia turning its back on the war is a blow to Russia.  That makes no sense.  Every NATO country that says, "we're done with this stupid war" is a blow to NATO and a victory for Russia, because what Slovakia does today Italy might do next week and Germany next month.  Eventually, if Trump wins in 2024 and Moscow plays its diplomatic cards right, it might be Russia, the UK and the Poles, with the President saying, "NATO is not involved".

It seems to me that individual small NATO countries changing governments doesn't have a significant impact, particularly those that have already cleaned out their old inventory already. The US can probably shoulder the supply situation on its own, so long as the various host NATO countries at least continue to allow supplies to go through their territory. So the 2024 US election is probably the pivotal moment as to how long NATO continues to supply Ukraine regardless of most anything else. Biden has made it clear he will continue the supply as long as Congress cooperates (and so far there is bipartisan support even in the House, despite the weird CR situation). Trump has heavily implied, if not all but stated, he'll push Ukraine and Russia to accept the current line of control and call it a day.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. M1126 Stryker, somewhere near Rabotino https://t.me/milinfolive/107414

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

A Ukrainian soldier called up Russian tech support when his captured Russian tank wouldn't start: report

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-soldier-russian-tech-support-captured-russian-tank-wouldnt-work-2023-10

 

It would be the strangest think to have happened so far. 

Probably not very strange to be honest. Weapon manufacturers for the West have answered calls from troops before.

 

https://www.inc.com/larry-kim/this-epic-story-about-a-marines-machine-gun-failing-during-battle-will-make-you-see-value-of-stellar-customer-service.html

I just don't think there's an easy way to determine whether a Russian or Ukrainian is on the line. Especially since a LOT of folks in Ukraine can speak Russian. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by crazyinsane105

[Roman Alymov]

51 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Probably not very strange to be honest. Weapon manufacturers for the West have answered calls from troops before.

 

https://www.inc.com/larry-kim/this-epic-story-about-a-marines-machine-gun-failing-during-battle-will-make-you-see-value-of-stellar-customer-service.html

I just don't think there's an easy way to determine whether a Russian or Ukrainian is on the line. Especially since a LOT of folks in Ukraine can speak Russian. 

Actually it is just indication of how low is Western press opinion of its readers: journalists take for granted nobody will watch the actual video and be able to understand Russian.

The phone call is not to "tech support" but to unknown person, probably UVZ employee whose phone number was available online, and this person is saying something like "it is not in my competence, but on Tuesday i will be on the plant and will ask people on how to help you with your problems" (pro-Ukr guy pretend to cpomplain about oil "spilled out" and air compressor not pumping enough pressure). 

   So it is just regular phone prank, nothing more. But the very fact it is made the way to international press is indicative of amount of "good news" generated by so-much-waited spring-autumn NATO offencive.

[Strannik]

ZSU General Staff is lobbying Zelensky admin to lower conscription age to 20.  Current average age at the front lines ~40.

[crazyinsane105]

27 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Actually it is just indication of how low is Western press opinion of its readers: journalists take for granted nobody will watch the actual video and be able to understand Russian.

The phone call is not to "tech support" but to unknown person, probably UVZ employee whose phone number was available online, and this person is saying something like "it is not in my competence, but on Tuesday i will be on the plant and will ask people on how to help you with your problems" (pro-Ukr guy pretend to cpomplain about oil "spilled out" and air compressor not pumping enough pressure). 

   So it is just regular phone prank, nothing more. But the very fact it is made the way to international press is indicative of amount of "good news" generated by so-much-waited spring-autumn NATO offencive.

Ah thanks for that. Was just a silly prank, that's all. 

Even if it wasn't, I don't really think the advice they'd give over the phone would be ground breaking by any means...probably whatever they'd say is common knowledge 

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Strannik said:

ZSU General Staff is lobbying Zelensky admin to lower conscription age to 20.  Current average age at the front lines ~40.

I'm affraid it is not ZSU General Staff, but real masters of the game

“The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but… just as Britain did in 1939 and 1941, perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilization,” <Ben> Wallace wrote in an opinion piece published by The Telegraph on Sunday.

https://www.rt.com/news/583877-ukraine-mobilization-scale-wallace/

 

[Roman Alymov]

Another drone-assisted trench battle: one Pacific Fleet Marine vs. 5 pro-Ukrainians who attempted to take pro-Rus trenches near Novomayorskoye https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/29702

[crazyinsane105]

Oh, remember a few months back when the Russians were going to blow up the Zaphorizia nuke plant? Or cause a meltdown? Some media outlets and random sources were very very sure it would happen.

Strange how all that talk kinda vanished. 

[Strannik]

15 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Oh, remember a few months back when the Russians were going to blow up the Zaphorizia nuke plant? Or cause a meltdown? Some media outlets and random sources were very very sure it would happen.

Strange how all that talk kinda vanished. 

Are you questioning the western narrative here? A slippery slope.  Next thing you will be ... refusing to donate $1 to Ukraine!

 

 

[Josh]

To be fair, that seemed to assume that Ukraine was in any position to retake the power plant, which IMO seemed unlikely. I don’t think anyone thought Russia was going to blow up its own electricity production for no reason. The plant may not be operating now, but presumably whoever has it post war will use it, if it is intact.

ETA: I always assumed the allegation was that it would be destroyed if over run.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

10 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Lancet vs. M1126 Stryker, somewhere near Rabotino https://t.me/milinfolive/107414

P.S. Location https://t.me/creamy_caprice/2438

I wonder what was the point of having the group of at least 3 Strykers hiding in the plantations 16 km away from contact line. 

[Roman Alymov]

VDV's own Gurkhas? The guys are reported to be volunteers from Nepal, but more likely some students of Nepal origin who have voluntered into Russian Army (as their Russian is too god for fresh arrivals) https://t.me/milinfolive/107432?single

[BansheeOne]

14 hours ago, Josh said:

It seems to me that individual small NATO countries changing governments doesn't have a significant impact, particularly those that have already cleaned out their old inventory already. The US can probably shoulder the supply situation on its own, so long as the various host NATO countries at least continue to allow supplies to go through their territory. So the 2024 US election is probably the pivotal moment as to how long NATO continues to supply Ukraine regardless of most anything else. Biden has made it clear he will continue the supply as long as Congress cooperates (and so far there is bipartisan support even in the House, despite the weird CR situation). Trump has heavily implied, if not all but stated, he'll push Ukraine and Russia to accept the current line of control and call it a day.

Roman's worries about Eastern European agents of the "Appeasement of the West Party" in the Kremlin sabotaging the Russian will to victory through pro-Russian politics aside, 😁 there is of course indeed something like a "populist belt" among the East European NATO/EU members stretching from Poland to Bulgaria which may act unpredictably at election time. And some of these guys are always in campaign mode, because populists need to be seen executing the "will of the people" all the time.

Polish foreign minister Zbigniew Rau, embattled over a visa-for-cash-affair that would contradict the PiS government's fundamental anti-immigration platform, recently said that restoring the level of mutual relations with Ukraine prior to the current spat over grain imports would require a "titanic effort", and suggested it would be Ukraine's choice. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned that additional import bans could be considered if Ukraine would "escalate" further. There have been dark mutterings from Warsaw to remember that Poland is a main transit country for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which depending on how you want to could be read as an offended reminder to be bloody grateful, or a threat.

For all their volatility, the ultimate driver here is not even the PiS; they're getting pressure from the ascendant Konfederacja to their own right, which strangely enough for Poland seems to include some actual pro-Russian characters among the wide range of their constituting groups, and lately have been accusing the government of being "subservient" to Ukraine. As a self-declared third-path party which has stated not to cooperate with either of the major two, mostly over their libertarian stance on welfare, they would prevent a majority for both big camps at current polling. Though the recent government course seems to have reversed their poll hike for now.

Again, such election antics are hardly unique to Poland or Eastern Europe, if you look at Gerhard Schröder's 2002 campaigning against US intervention in Iraq which contributed to a major rift within NATO. Though even then, as an ally of five decades, Germany remained overall dependable in military cooperation; Schröder never banned the US from using its German bases for OIF, which would actually have all but prevented the war, and host nation support continued to the point that at one moment the entire German Navy's minesweeper fleet was moored so their crews could pull guard duty at said bases to relieve US troops.

Not giving the US what they really wanted, which was UN approval, was more of an accident as it was thought that athorization by the UNSC would not depend upon the German vote. But as it turned out it encouraged others, and next thing you know, there was a French-German-Russian-Chinese axis of opposition which made the US withdraw its draft resolution to approve intervention - but still didn't prevent the quagmire that Iraq became. So I don't worry about Eastern European allies suddenly blocking transfer of aid to Ukraine across their territory as much as about potential effects on a common European stance.

We already have Hungary trying to throw spanners into the EU's multi-year programs of financial support. Facing a possible drawdown of US aid which would make European commitments, already greater than the American ones, pretty much the main pillar holding up Ukraine, we don't need even small members like Slovakia, much less bigger ones like Poland extending their usual "we will obstruct Brussels' evil pro-LGBT immigrants dictat policy (unless they give us even more money)" shtick to that, too - because being surrounded by enemies but valiantly protecting national interests against them, including the ungrateful Ukrainians, plays well to their governments' domestic base.

Then again, you got to see that such divisions within the Western camp are played up by pro-Russian propaganda to look more threatening as they are. Few in Germany even note, much less care about the frequent anti-German attacks in the Polish election campaigns, for example, because they're just that. The local pro-Russian crowd is most likely to take offense, because their media sources make an effort to get them to. Similar for supposedly anti-Ukrainian developments like now in Slovakia and Poland. But then propaganda has real effects, and I don't simply disregard the threat.

[Roman Alymov]

18 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Roman's worries about Eastern European agents of the "Appeasement of the West Party" in the Kremlin sabotaging the Russian will to victory through pro-Russian politics aside, 😁 there is of course indeed something like a "populist belt" among the East European NATO/EU members stretching from Poland to Bulgaria which may act unpredictably at election time. And some of these guys are always in campaign mode, because populists need to be seen executing the "will of the people" all the time.

Here is discussion of that

But as cynical Russian i got no doubt this political forces will be reined in by EU funding choked and other means. 

[Roman Alymov]

Rare video of Russian artillery (MLRS) crew under cluster munitions counterbattery fire https://t.me/dva_majors/26675

[seahawk]

10 hours ago, Strannik said:

Are you questioning the western narrative here? A slippery slope.  Next thing you will be ... refusing to donate $1 to Ukraine!

 

 

It is good that more people with influence speak the truth and are openly against the melding of the West in the Russian Civil War.

[Roman Alymov]

M1132 Stryker ESV with LWMR mine-clearing set filmed by pro-Russians burning near their positions somewhere in Zaporozhye. Strange choice of vehicle for assault task...

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/99209

Edited October 3, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[mandeb48]

another map with the changes on the front. Ukraine recovered 25 km2 in september:

https://goo.gl/maps/ZB195JxTzBqLkX418

 

UKraine losses (photo / video only) of september:

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7552?single

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7553?single

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7555?single

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7556?single

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7557?single

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7558?single

Nearly 1/2 of July

Edited October 3, 2023 by mandeb48

[bojan]

9 hours ago, Josh said:

ETA: I always assumed the allegation was that it would be destroyed if over run.

If they wanted power plant to be forever unable to be used they could activate emergency boric acid injection into reactors. No way to start that reactor ever again.

Whole "they are gonna blow it" is a simple scaremongering, mostly coming from "OMG, nuke PP, horrible" crowd. Or from same retards that claimed that Russians are shelling themselves at the territory of NPP.

Edited October 3, 2023 by bojan

[alejandro_]

Changes in territory





https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html

[ink]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

Changes in territory





https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html

Almost makes you think that maybe territory isn't the point.