Kiev Is Burning

[txtree99]

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically significant field fortifications have changed hands several times.

The Russian information space continues to falsely portray Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in order to discourage continued Western support for Ukraine.

The status of the Wagner Group remains unclear amid reported negotiations about the Wagner Group’s future cooperation with the Russian government.

ISW will revise its assessment about the prospects for the Wagner Group to reemerge an as effective military organization if the Wagner Group successfully reconstitutes as a large, unitary organization under Rosgvardia, the Russian MoD, or a similar organization.

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 30 to October 1.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. 

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially announced the beginning of its regular fall 2023 conscription cycle on October 1.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2023

[Josh]

Just now, crazyinsane105 said:

I’m wondering if it has to do with Russia not experiencing cluster munition usage on such a large scale and having to adapt to it. 

This graph only describes increasing artillery usage, not effects. In fact, it measures increased thermal effects, and cluster munitions may start more fires than unitary, so this should not be taken as an absolute indicator even of volume of fire. And we have no idea if this increased volume of fire has resulted in more casualties. Anecdotely, that seems to be the case, but the FIRMS information does not address that aspect.

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, seahawk said:

I think he means better for the Russian people, if the government would be no longer controlled by the pro-West party. And to achieve this the chance of a negotiated solution with the West must be non-existent. In the long rin, he will be correct, as the Western aggression towards Russia will not end.

What Roman calls the "pro-Western" party is just the the Russian government following a coherent strategy in the war.  Looks to me they are trying to split NATO between the doves and the hawks, so that they can start dealing with the hawks without further entangling themselves with the doves.  What Roman calls the "pro-Russia" party are revolutionaries that want to destabilize the Russian  government in order to gain power for themselves.  Hence, the spin that everything the Russian government and army does is either stupid or 'pro-Western'.  

Edited October 2, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

14 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I’m wondering if it has to do with Russia not experiencing cluster munition usage on such a large scale and having to adapt to it. 

I'm not seeing what useful information on the military situation is being conveyed in the graph?   

[glenn239]

...

Edited October 2, 2023 by glenn239

[Josh]

7 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I'm not seeing what useful information on the military situation is being conveyed in the graph?   

Ukraine’s volume of artillery fire has increase, especially when compared to Russia’s. You yourself have directly tied volume of artillery fire to casualties, to the point of inventing mathematical formulas for such. Surely you must consider evidence of Ukrainian fire superiority relevant?

Edited October 2, 2023 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

A pro-Russian outcome in Slovakia is the election of a government that is pro-Russia and terminates support for Ukraine.  

With all my respect to great Slovak nation, support for Ukraine from Slovakia is definitely not the decicive factor of this war. But this elections outcome will be widely used by anti-mobilization gang to promote their point of view, resulting in extra hundreds (and possibly more) Russian soldiers KIA and WIA on frontline while our gov is pretenmding "business as usual, Army got everything it needs".

20 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

A Slovakian election result has nothing to do with the Russian industrial mobilization.

Of course it is not Slovakian election result by itself that matters, but how it will be used in internal Russian debate.

23 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I wonder who paid Surkov to say that.  Russia seems to have alot of self-declared "patriots" that are hoping the Russian army falls flat on its face.   With this Slovakian thing the real issue seems to be that Russians who want the Russian army to fail, (so that they can sweep in and "rescue" Russia from itself),

The problem with your logic is that many of this people are decorated veterans with years of frontline exoperience, and they will be the people dieing in process of "Russian army falls flat on its face". One of this people, whom i know personally for years, was injured last year while defending Krasny Liman in improvised volunteer unit (that defence by two voluntee battalions, combined with defence of Balakleya by Police SWAT that happened to be on the way of pro-Ukr offencive and was not ordered to retreat as it was not Army unit, de-facto stopped "Kharkov offencive" short of its goals). And it is not the only example, even among people i know personally. 

31 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

are not receptive to the idea the Russian government and army actually know what they are doing. 

Actually the closer are people to frontline, or more engaged they are in volunteer support of Army, the less illusions they got about big brass&Co "know what they are doing". 

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, Josh said:

Ukraine’s volume of artillery fire has increase, especially when compared to Russia’s. You yourself have directly tied volume of artillery fire to casualties, to the point of inventing mathematical formulas for such. Surely you must consider evidence of Ukrainian fire superiority relevant?

Actually it is impossible to tell it from that data, as location of fire is attributed by territory control - and most of fighting is going on on territory that was Russian-controlled (at least initially). De-facto Russian artillery is firing on positions previously controlled by Russian infantry, and enemy artillery is also firing on Russian positions. It makes impossible to judhe whom the fire "belongs" to. By the way i wonder if artillery shots are recorded, or only impacts....

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I'm not seeing what useful information on the military situation is being conveyed in the graph?   

Total activity, but no way to tell what side it comes from.

[Oblomovens]

54 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Please provide sources.

Also for your reputation here sake I expect it to be tangible and not akin to infamous Iraq chem warfare evidence (a couple of dozen of rusty shells lying here and there, missed during disposal)

And then we will compare financing,  arming and training the small army vs.  whatever you will provide to assess the adequacy of your claim.

Anger wasted on trolls? Please 😂

My first suggestion had been Google. You may find the Republic of Mahabad there, who armed and financed it and sheltered, educated and supplied its leaders for years afterward for a second try. It makes your claim, that the SU did not support forces opposed to Turkey for their own geopolitical gain false.

I'll await your mobile goalposts about financing and expect it to be backed up by some glorious Excel sheets. You know, for your reputation.

[Josh]

6 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Actually it is impossible to tell it from that data, as location of fire is attributed by territory control - and most of fighting is going on on territory that was Russian-controlled (at least initially). De-facto Russian artillery is firing on positions previously controlled by Russian infantry, and enemy artillery is also firing on Russian positions. It makes impossible to judhe whom the fire "belongs" to. By the way i wonder if artillery shots are recorded, or only impacts....

The lines of control have generally been tracked fairly well this conflict, and certainly this year have been static enough to be publicly pretty well known. There might well be areas that fall into "gray zone" fire that could be attributed to either side, and we would have to know more about the methodology of determining who's "side" was being fired on to have a good idea of the accuracy of the information. But the broad trend, particularly when overlaid with Ukrainian activity and artillery donations, seems pretty conclusive.

The FIRMS satellite tracks thermal signature, so the data in its raw form is mostly the indirect fires caused by artillery and not the artillery explosions themselves. As such it is only a rough gauge of volume of fire, as the conditions of what is being hit will alter the resultant fires caused and the type of ammunition itself may be a determining factor. This graph should not be considered  a truly quantitative measurement of anything. But again, the broad trend seems clear.

[Roman Alymov]

37 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

What Roman calls the "pro-Western" party is just the the Russian government following a coherent strategy in the war.  Looks to me they are trying to split NATO between the doves and the hawks, so that they can start dealing with the hawks without further entangling themselves with the doves.  What Roman calls the "pro-Russia" party are revolutionaries that want to destabilize the Russian  government and lose the war in Ukraine in order to gain power for themselves.  Hence, the spin that everything the Russian government and army does is either stupid or 'pro-Western'.  

I'm sorry but it is just wrong. "Russian Government" ios looking for good terms of surrender for themselves, and nothing is adding more to destabilization than own actions of this big bosses (see for example recent scandal created by Dume head of commetee for interethnic affairs crazy article). It is not war bloggers who are "shaking the boat"  - some of them do could be named "revolutionaries" as they have served prizon terms or other sorts of problems  for their previous political activity, but they are just regular civilian activists or low level officers/NCOs with no real power, got no access to MSM, and could do little (unfortunatelly).

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

The FIRMS satellite tracks thermal signature, so the data in its raw form is mostly the indirect fires caused by artillery and not the artillery explosions themselves. As such it is only a rough gauge of volume of fire, as the conditions of what is being hit will alter the resultant fires caused and the type of ammunition itself may be a determining factor. This graph should not be considered  a truly quantitative measurement of anything. But again, the broad trend seems clear.

So the grass burning from single shell explosion will be recorded as massive artillery fire.....  Well, it quite explains the peaks in August and early September, when grass is allready high after wet spring/early summer and dry after late summer....

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Ukr promo video of Marder IFV https://t.me/info_zp/47869

[Josh]

29 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

So the grass burning from single shell explosion will be recorded as massive artillery fire.....  Well, it quite explains the peaks in August and early September, when grass is allready high after wet spring/early summer and dry after late summer....

Perhaps, but hypothetically that condition would apply to both the Russian and Ukrainian fires.

[Roman Alymov]

47 minutes ago, Josh said:

Perhaps, but hypothetically that condition would apply to both the Russian and Ukrainian fires.

Yes, so the graph is indicative of combination of total volume of artillery fire and presence of natural flamable material in the area, hardly any way to attribite it ro this or that side.

Rus MoD video of old good 57mm C-60 AA gun on truck mount in action https://t.me/dva_majors/26629

[mkenny]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Interesting FIRMS graph. It looks like the decision to release DPICM ammunition for donation was decisive in terms of quantitative improvement of fire. Not surprising, but always nice to have some actual information. Full article in the other thread.

This map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.430225009758345%2C35.894185929796336&z=13

is by far the best reference for what is going on in terms of 'captured ground'.  It links to film of the event on other sites.  

 

[Roman Alymov]

Back to "Russian Army and Gov" vs. "revolutionaries that want to destabilize the Russian  government and lose the war in Ukraine in order to gain power for themselves": crowdfunded, volunteer-produced drone control boosters donated to UAV team of 5th Donetsk brigade (regular Russian army unit). By strange coincidence, the team members are also members of National-Bolshevic party, known for its anti-Western and anti-bourgouis street actions. So who are this guys  - Russian Army or revolutionaries?

https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/16032

[Strannik]

2 hours ago, Oblomovens said:

My first suggestion had been Google. You may find the Republic of Mahabad there, who armed and financed it and sheltered, educated and supplied its leaders for years afterward ....

Ah, another troll, ignore list addition

 

[Roman Alymov]

More WWI-style tricks: FPV drone vs, well-hidden MG nest

https://t.me/dva_majors/26631

[Josh]

27 minutes ago, mkenny said:

This map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.430225009758345%2C35.894185929796336&z=13

is by far the best reference for what is going on in terms of 'captured ground'.  It links to film of the event on other sites.  

 

That is impressive. Thanks.

[JWB]

 

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Ukraine’s volume of artillery fire has increase, especially when compared to Russia’s. You yourself have directly tied volume of artillery fire to casualties, to the point of inventing mathematical formulas for such. Surely you must consider evidence of Ukrainian fire superiority relevant?

Sorry, but the graph says the number of fires have increased?   What you want to know is whether the number of Russian troop casualties have increased to cluster rounds.  That has nothing to do with forest fires.  I think that is related to the fact that it's the dry season over there?

[Roman Alymov]

Krasnopol vs. Leopard tank. Is Leopard-2 equiped with lazer detector?

https://t.me/frontbird/3777

[Perun]

1 hour ago, mkenny said:

This map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.430225009758345%2C35.894185929796336&z=13

is by far the best reference for what is going on in terms of 'captured ground'.  It links to film of the event on other sites.  

 

Excellent map mate, thanks