Kiev Is Burning

[BansheeOne]

3 hours ago, ex2cav said:

I don't think the US ever paid the British salaries to keep them in the fight. This is a whole another level of support that belies the Ukrainians don't have an economy.

Actually, the US kept the UK afloat even after the war, extending a 4.34 bn dollar loan in 1945, at the time double the size of the entire British economy. The Brits were a little miffed since they had expected a gift in recognition of their expenses in lives and treasures during the war, particularly in the two years before the US got in; but they had to accept since they were indebted by about that sum while their foreign income had halved over the war. They eventually paid off the last rate in 2006. Canada also granted another 1.25 bn.

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Actually, I remember you predicting it quite a bit. Javelins were going to take all soviet armor off the battlefield....blah blah blah

Javelins and NLAWS definitely were a pain, but even without them, the Ukrainians had a decent number of Stugna missiles that they used to obliterate Russian tanks.

But overall, biggest killer to Russian vehicles was drone directed artillery fire. 

2 hours ago, Josh said:

If you operate on the assumption resistance will be minimal, the exact timeframe is no longer super relevant. At the time I’m pretty sure I was of the mind a few weeks would get them to the Dneiper but that western Ukraine would remain independent and there would be a low level insurgency for years. I was quite convinced it was going to happen anyway from pretty early on.

 

To be fair to the Russians, I never envisioned them capturing Kherson.

If the Russians simply focused efforts in the south and east and didn’t care much of Kiev, they’d probably have been able to take a very large chunk of Ukraine east of the Dniper. Not to mention that at least back then, the Russians had more than enough capability to drop all 23 bridges that spanned the Dniper, hence cutting off Ukrainian forces from resupply. 
 

War would have been over much sooner if the Russians had more limited scope. Trying to pull off Kiev along with everything else, and that to with very limited numbers of men…it was a huge recipe for disaster 

[Stuart Galbraith]

39 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Actually, the US kept the UK afloat even after the war, extending a 4.34 bn dollar loan in 1945, at the time double the size of the entire British economy. The Brits were a little miffed since they had expected a gift in recognition of their expenses in lives and treasures during the war, particularly in the two years before the US got in; but they had to accept since they were indebted by about that sum while their foreign income had halved over the war. They eventually paid off the last rate in 2006. Canada also granted another 1.25 bn.

That was decent of Canada, I'd never heard that.

[Markus Becker]

13 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

If the Russians simply focused efforts in the south and east and didn’t care much of Kiev, they’d probably have been able to take a very large chunk of Ukraine east of the Dniper. Not to mention that at least back then, the Russians had more than enough capability to drop all 23 bridges that spanned the Dniper, hence cutting off Ukrainian forces from resupply. 

War would have been over much sooner if the Russians had more limited scope. 

Not really, if they had only concentrated there, so would the Ukrainians and even the sceptics would have believed that there would be a limited invasion. 

The smart move would have been to just annex the Donbass Gangsta Republics. 

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

7 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

The smart move would have been to just annex the Donbass Gangsta Republics.

That was also my idea of Russia's war goals in 2022. Create a fait accompli and end the matter this way.

But megalomania won and now Russia has pooped on the toilet seat.

[crazyinsane105]

16 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Not really, if they had only concentrated there, so would the Ukrainians and even the sceptics would have believed that there would be a limited invasion. 

The smart move would have been to just annex the Donbass Gangsta Republics. 

 

Ukraine already wasn’t expecting a significant attack towards Kiev anyways, it came as a surprise to them. 

Sure the Ukrainians would have concentrated forces as well, but first week of the invasion we did see very rapid territorial gains by the Russians, and the south was practically taken in very little fighting compared to other fronts. The Russians could have easily captured a lot more territory in the south along with Vulehdar, which would have actually strengthened their logistics significantly and really put Ukrainian units in the east in a pretty bad position. 
 

Just annexing the republics themselves wouldn’t have solved the water issue to Crimea, and they did need a land bridge as well. To an extent they did solve that by this invasion, though I am curious how the water situation to Crimea is right now due to the Kherson dam being blown

 

[Josh]

29 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Not really, if they had only concentrated there, so would the Ukrainians and even the sceptics would have believed that there would be a limited invasion. 

The smart move would have been to just annex the Donbass Gangsta Republics. 

 

...or even just impose a no fly zone, if it was really the TB-2s that were the primary concern.

But the goal was never to just take those regions; the goal was always to cripple Ukraine or annex Ukraine.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 If he changed the Government, he could present it as regime change, rather than territory grabbing, as he did after Crimea.He probably figured he would get the same sanctions regardless, may as well get it all and finish it.

OK, it's dumb, but it's internally consistent.

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Ukr video of cutting M864 cluster shell  by angle grinder to get submunitions for drone bomblets https://t.me/milinfolive/107321

[mkenny]

A lot of reports that it was Russian Special Forces  (and not missile strikes) that  blew up the refinery/pipeline in Ivano Frankivsk. This is an area where NATO provides the aa-cover and thus a difficult target. 

The first of many?

https://t.me/llordofwar/208888

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

Just now, mkenny said:

A lot of reports that it was Russian Special Forces  (and not missile strikes) that  blew up the refinery/pipeline in Ivano Frankivsk. This is an area where NATO provides the aa-cover and thus a difficult target. 

The first of many?

https://t.me/llordofwar/208888

 

 

I have not seen reports of "special forces" etc. but it is massive fire on NG pipeline near Ivano-Frankosk, while no air attacks reported, that is why diversion is blamed. Note it is not just "pipeline" but export pipeline from Russia (Tver'-Ivano-Frankovsk) transporting Russian NG to Hungarian border

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98976

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98971

 

Pro-Russian take on that:

"Gas pipelines are exploding in Ukraine.
First there were Lubny, now Ivano-Frankivsk.
Versions from sources in Ukraine:
1. Ukraine itself blows up, sending a hint to the EU, which will face a gas shortage, since the final explosion will be on many "sleeves" of the GTS.
2. Explodes because there is no money to maintain it in proper condition. So it goes out of order
3. Blown up by a third party who is interested in selling their gas and rising gas prices and making super profits on it.
We dismiss the Russian trace for the reason that, if desired, they could have blown up all the GTS long time ago*". ( На Украине взрываются газопроводы. Сначала были Лубны, теперь Ивано-Франковск… | Юрий Кот | Дзен (dzen.ru) )

* - actually no need to blow it up, as instead of sending diversion group deep into Western Ukrains, turn of the switch inside Russia is enough to stop NG flow into Ukraine.

Note it is not the first case in this region, bekow is translation of old article from 2014 (  https://russian.rt.com/article/32088?ysclid=ln6gvk76ev590129974 )

"The authorities of Ivano-Frankivsk said that the explosions on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline were planned
May 15, 2014, 21:27
Law enforcement agencies have made preliminary conclusions that the explosions on the main gas pipeline Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod were planned. According to the chairman of the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional State Administration of Ukraine Andriy Trotsenko, now the protection of the gas pipeline has been strengthened. Even forestry workers were involved in it.
The authorities of Ivano-Frankivsk said that the explosions on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline were planned
RIA News
The head of the Ivano-Frankivsk region of Ukraine, Andriy Trotsenko, said that the explosions on the Urengoy-Poramy-Uzhgorod gas pipeline were planned, RIA Novosti reports.

"The preliminary data that we have shows that these were planned explosions that aimed to damage the international gas pipeline. To date, three explosions have occurred in different sections of the gas pipeline. Their reason is explosives planted in certain places," the governor said.

After the incident, the security of the gas pipeline has been strengthened. In addition to law enforcement officers and the territorial defense battalion, employees of the regional forestry and hunting management were also involved in it.

"Now all our efforts are aimed at preventing new explosions. Our task is to form a full-fledged unit based on the territorial defense battalion. This is the battalion that will ensure law and order on the territory of our region and will take over the counteraction to such terrorist acts," Trotsenko said.

Recall that on May 12, during the work to eliminate gas leaks from the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline (section 4,266 km, Rozhnyatovsky district of Ivano-Frankivsk region), an explosion occurred of the Bogorodchany-Dolina high-pressure gas pipeline (diameter 1400 mm, pressure 50-54 Atm). The gas pipeline was not depressurized, there was no gas leak.

The regional prosecutor's office previously reported that the cause of the explosion on the section of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline in the Ivano-Frankivsk region could be a terrorist attack.

The Urengoy — Pomary — Uzhgorod gas pipeline runs through the entire territory of Ukraine. It connects the gas fields of the north of Western Siberia with Uzhgorod in Western Ukraine.

Dmitry Yarosh's threat Recall that in March, the leader of the Ukrainian radical organization "Right Sector" threatened to blow up a gas pipeline to deprive Russia of a source of funding. Dmitry Yarosh stated this in his address "to the government of Ukraine and to compatriots."

"We remember that Russia earns money by transporting oil and gas to the West through our pipe, so we will destroy this pipe, depriving the enemy of this source of financing. Let the earth burn under the feet of the occupier, let him drown in his blood by attacking our territory!" the leader of the Right Sector said at the time."

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 If he changed the Government, he could present it as regime change, rather than territory grabbing, as he did after Crimea.He probably figured he would get the same sanctions regardless, may as well get it all and finish it.

OK, it's dumb, but it's internally consistent.

It is completely unconsistent. If you really believe that group of people completely dependent on West, with all their assets in Western banks, children living luxury life in Europe and nice places of USA etc. suddenly, after decasdes of enjoying comprador status, decided to "get the same sanctions" for doing something good for Russia (not for themselves) - well, there is a lot of bridges for sale....

[Roman Alymov]

Iskander (or Tornado  -not known for sure) strikes on pro-Ukrainian training ground and railway train being loaded with vehicles. Note dense fragments hit field https://t.me/milinfolive/107314?single

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 If he changed the Government, he could present it as regime change, rather than territory grabbing, as he did after Crimea.He probably figured he would get the same sanctions regardless, may as well get it all and finish it.

OK, it's dumb, but it's internally consistent.

That. It worked once, fight your next conflict like your last. 

[Strannik]

9 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, it reads completely differently elsewhere.

But OK. The Russian army is not fleeing headlessly. Unless the enemy was overwhelming. 😎

Tomorrow our colleague @Strannik will tell us that Russia was able to repel Ukraine's imminent attack on Russia in a preemptive attack.

Did I hurt your tender feelings by not reciting western bs narrative about brave not-Nazi-just-Waffen-SS-cosplayers smiting the hordes of mongoloid Russians?

Oh, shucks.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Strannik

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Iskander (or Tornado  -not known for sure) strikes on pro-Ukrainian training ground and railway train being loaded with vehicles. Note dense fragments hit field https://t.me/milinfolive/107314?single

Looks like Iskander. The fragments being that far out looks the warhead is too big for what is on an MRLS rocket 

[seahawk]

Good news. Slovakian elections saw a victory of a party that wants to end support to the Ukraine and return to normal relations with Russia. People are waking up!

Also more successful strikes by the mighty Russian Air Force. Kehrson got a major UMPK hit on a resupply depot. Causalities are said to be massive.

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 hours ago, Strannik said:

Did I hurt your tender feelings by not reciting western bs narrative about brave not-Nazi-just-Waffen-SS-cosplayers smiting the hordes of mongoloid Russians?

Oh, shucks.

 

 

When you are reaching for a homocidal maniac whom encouraged Khrushchev to start WW3, then you know full well you dont have many arguments left.

[Perun]

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

When you are reaching for a homocidal maniac whom encouraged Khrushchev to start WW3, then you know full well you dont have many arguments left.

I would like to see your sources, again 🤣

[Stuart Galbraith]

Naftali and Fursenko's 'One Hell of a Gamble'. I seem to recall Serii Ploky's 'Nuclear Folly' also brought it up.

Or you could just read Castro's letter to Khrushchev. Khrushchev certainly read it as advocating a Soviet first strike on the US, and quite frankly, so do I.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/jfk-attack/

Letter from Fidel Castro to Nikita Khrushchev
October 26, 1962

Dear Comrade Khrushchev:

Given the analysis of the situation and the reports which have reached us, [I] consider an attack to be almost imminent -- within the next 24 to 72 hours. There are two possible variants: the first and most probable one is an air attack against certain objectives with the limited aim of destroying them; the second, and though less probable, still possible, is a full invasion. This would require a large force and is the most repugnant form of aggression, which might restrain them.

You can be sure that we will resist with determination, whatever the case. The Cuban people's morale is extremely high and the people will confront aggression heroically.

I would like to briefly express my own personal opinion.

If the second variant takes place and the imperialists invade Cuba with the aim of occupying it, the dangers of their aggressive policy are so great that after such an invasion the Soviet Union must never allow circumstances in which the imperialists could carry out a nuclear first strike against it.

I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba -- a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law -- then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.

This opinion is shaped by observing the development of their aggressive policy. The imperialists, without regard for world opinion and against laws and principles, have blockaded the seas, violated our air-space, and are preparing to invade, while at the same time blocking any possibility of negotiation, even though they understand the gravity of the problem.

You have been, and are, a tireless defender of peace, and I understand that these moments, when the results of your superhuman efforts are so seriously threatened, must be bitter for you. We will maintain our hopes for saving the peace until the last moment, and we are ready to contribute to this in any way we can. But, at the same time, we are serene and ready to confront a situation which we see as very real and imminent.

I convey to you the infinite gratitude and recognition of the Cuban people to the Soviet people, who have been so generous and fraternal, along with our profound gratitude and admiration to you personally. We wish you success with the enormous task and great responsibilities which are in your hands.

Fraternally,

Fidel Castro

 

Still going to criticise my sources, when they tell you something you dont want to hear?

[Roman Alymov]

Reuters article on Cubans joining Russian Army  - the stories told seems plausable, at least amounts of money paid and other terms are quite consistant with ones for regular Russian Army soldiers.

Special Report: How Cubans were recruited to fight for Russia | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/whatsapp-war-how-cubans-were-recruited-fight-russia-2023-09-30/

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

If the second variant takes place and the imperialists invade Cuba with the aim of occupying it, the dangers of their aggressive policy are so great that after such an invasion the Soviet Union must never allow circumstances in which the imperialists could carry out a nuclear first strike against it.

I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba -- a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law -- then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.

 

Still going to criticise my sources, when they tell you something you dont want to hear?

So what this document is saying, as far as i can see, is de-facto following: leader of small island nation sees the posibility of all-out attack by neighboring agressive superpower (with track record of invasions) and is politely asking his ally, distant superpower, to reply to this attack, if it happens in full scale, with all possible means, including nuclear strike. You call him "homocidal maniac", correct?

[Stuart Galbraith]

No, far from it. He is saying if he gets invaded, conventionally, 'then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.'

Basically, he is telling the USSR to respond to a conventional attack with an all out Thermonuclear war. Obliteration of the capitalist world in fact. Which, funnily enough, would be the only reason why the USA would conventionally invade Cuba, because Cuba was giving the USSR the capacity, for the first time since the nuclear age began, to actually do it.

To be fair to him, the Soviet Ambassador did say he was dangerously excited at the time. Which I always assumed was a polite euthemism for 'Drunk'. But its very clear what he is saying. Khrushchev, a man not blessed with great smarts, had no difficulty working it out, and you, clearly a lot smarter, should have no problem.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/castro-letter-khrushchev/

''In your cable of October 27 you proposed that we be the first to carry out a nuclear strike against the enemy’s territory. Naturally you understand where that would lead us. It would not be a simple strike, but the start of a thermonuclear world war.

Dear Comrade Fidel Castro, I find your proposal to be wrong, even though I understand your reasons.

We have lived through a very grave moment, a global thermonuclear war could have broken out. Of course the United States would have suffered enormous losses, but the Soviet Union and the whole socialist bloc would have also suffered greatly. It is even difficult to say how things would have ended for the Cuban people. First of all, Cuba would have burned in the fires of war. Without a doubt the Cuban people would have fought courageously but, also without a doubt, the Cuban people would have perished heroically. We struggle against imperialism, not in order to die, but to draw on all of our potential, to lose as little as possible, and later to win more, so as to be a victor and make communism triumph.''

 

Well I think that neatly clears that up. Any problem with my sources so far Perun?

 

[Perun]

52 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Naftali and Fursenko's 'One Hell of a Gamble'. I seem to recall Serii Ploky's 'Nuclear Folly' also brought it up.

Or you could just read Castro's letter to Khrushchev. Khrushchev certainly read it as advocating a Soviet first strike on the US, and quite frankly, so do I.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/jfk-attack/

Letter from Fidel Castro to Nikita Khrushchev
October 26, 1962

Dear Comrade Khrushchev:

Given the analysis of the situation and the reports which have reached us, [I] consider an attack to be almost imminent -- within the next 24 to 72 hours. There are two possible variants: the first and most probable one is an air attack against certain objectives with the limited aim of destroying them; the second, and though less probable, still possible, is a full invasion. This would require a large force and is the most repugnant form of aggression, which might restrain them.

You can be sure that we will resist with determination, whatever the case. The Cuban people's morale is extremely high and the people will confront aggression heroically.

I would like to briefly express my own personal opinion.

If the second variant takes place and the imperialists invade Cuba with the aim of occupying it, the dangers of their aggressive policy are so great that after such an invasion the Soviet Union must never allow circumstances in which the imperialists could carry out a nuclear first strike against it.

I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba -- a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law -- then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.

This opinion is shaped by observing the development of their aggressive policy. The imperialists, without regard for world opinion and against laws and principles, have blockaded the seas, violated our air-space, and are preparing to invade, while at the same time blocking any possibility of negotiation, even though they understand the gravity of the problem.

You have been, and are, a tireless defender of peace, and I understand that these moments, when the results of your superhuman efforts are so seriously threatened, must be bitter for you. We will maintain our hopes for saving the peace until the last moment, and we are ready to contribute to this in any way we can. But, at the same time, we are serene and ready to confront a situation which we see as very real and imminent.

I convey to you the infinite gratitude and recognition of the Cuban people to the Soviet people, who have been so generous and fraternal, along with our profound gratitude and admiration to you personally. We wish you success with the enormous task and great responsibilities which are in your hands.

Fraternally,

Fidel Castro

 

Still going to criticise my sources, when they tell you something you dont want to hear?

Thank you for your effort. I will try to find some other sources on that and I will send them to you