Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

29 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Not really, if they had only concentrated there, so would the Ukrainians and even the sceptics would have believed that there would be a limited invasion. 

The smart move would have been to just annex the Donbass Gangsta Republics. 

 

...or even just impose a no fly zone, if it was really the TB-2s that were the primary concern.

But the goal was never to just take those regions; the goal was always to cripple Ukraine or annex Ukraine.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 If he changed the Government, he could present it as regime change, rather than territory grabbing, as he did after Crimea.He probably figured he would get the same sanctions regardless, may as well get it all and finish it.

OK, it's dumb, but it's internally consistent.

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Ukr video of cutting M864 cluster shell  by angle grinder to get submunitions for drone bomblets https://t.me/milinfolive/107321

[mkenny]

A lot of reports that it was Russian Special Forces  (and not missile strikes) that  blew up the refinery/pipeline in Ivano Frankivsk. This is an area where NATO provides the aa-cover and thus a difficult target. 

The first of many?

https://t.me/llordofwar/208888

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

Just now, mkenny said:

A lot of reports that it was Russian Special Forces  (and not missile strikes) that  blew up the refinery/pipeline in Ivano Frankivsk. This is an area where NATO provides the aa-cover and thus a difficult target. 

The first of many?

https://t.me/llordofwar/208888

 

 

I have not seen reports of "special forces" etc. but it is massive fire on NG pipeline near Ivano-Frankosk, while no air attacks reported, that is why diversion is blamed. Note it is not just "pipeline" but export pipeline from Russia (Tver'-Ivano-Frankovsk) transporting Russian NG to Hungarian border

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98976

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98971

 

Pro-Russian take on that:

"Gas pipelines are exploding in Ukraine.
First there were Lubny, now Ivano-Frankivsk.
Versions from sources in Ukraine:
1. Ukraine itself blows up, sending a hint to the EU, which will face a gas shortage, since the final explosion will be on many "sleeves" of the GTS.
2. Explodes because there is no money to maintain it in proper condition. So it goes out of order
3. Blown up by a third party who is interested in selling their gas and rising gas prices and making super profits on it.
We dismiss the Russian trace for the reason that, if desired, they could have blown up all the GTS long time ago*". ( На Украине взрываются газопроводы. Сначала были Лубны, теперь Ивано-Франковск… | Юрий Кот | Дзен (dzen.ru) )

* - actually no need to blow it up, as instead of sending diversion group deep into Western Ukrains, turn of the switch inside Russia is enough to stop NG flow into Ukraine.

Note it is not the first case in this region, bekow is translation of old article from 2014 (  https://russian.rt.com/article/32088?ysclid=ln6gvk76ev590129974 )

"The authorities of Ivano-Frankivsk said that the explosions on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline were planned
May 15, 2014, 21:27
Law enforcement agencies have made preliminary conclusions that the explosions on the main gas pipeline Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod were planned. According to the chairman of the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional State Administration of Ukraine Andriy Trotsenko, now the protection of the gas pipeline has been strengthened. Even forestry workers were involved in it.
The authorities of Ivano-Frankivsk said that the explosions on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline were planned
RIA News
The head of the Ivano-Frankivsk region of Ukraine, Andriy Trotsenko, said that the explosions on the Urengoy-Poramy-Uzhgorod gas pipeline were planned, RIA Novosti reports.

"The preliminary data that we have shows that these were planned explosions that aimed to damage the international gas pipeline. To date, three explosions have occurred in different sections of the gas pipeline. Their reason is explosives planted in certain places," the governor said.

After the incident, the security of the gas pipeline has been strengthened. In addition to law enforcement officers and the territorial defense battalion, employees of the regional forestry and hunting management were also involved in it.

"Now all our efforts are aimed at preventing new explosions. Our task is to form a full-fledged unit based on the territorial defense battalion. This is the battalion that will ensure law and order on the territory of our region and will take over the counteraction to such terrorist acts," Trotsenko said.

Recall that on May 12, during the work to eliminate gas leaks from the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline (section 4,266 km, Rozhnyatovsky district of Ivano-Frankivsk region), an explosion occurred of the Bogorodchany-Dolina high-pressure gas pipeline (diameter 1400 mm, pressure 50-54 Atm). The gas pipeline was not depressurized, there was no gas leak.

The regional prosecutor's office previously reported that the cause of the explosion on the section of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline in the Ivano-Frankivsk region could be a terrorist attack.

The Urengoy — Pomary — Uzhgorod gas pipeline runs through the entire territory of Ukraine. It connects the gas fields of the north of Western Siberia with Uzhgorod in Western Ukraine.

Dmitry Yarosh's threat Recall that in March, the leader of the Ukrainian radical organization "Right Sector" threatened to blow up a gas pipeline to deprive Russia of a source of funding. Dmitry Yarosh stated this in his address "to the government of Ukraine and to compatriots."

"We remember that Russia earns money by transporting oil and gas to the West through our pipe, so we will destroy this pipe, depriving the enemy of this source of financing. Let the earth burn under the feet of the occupier, let him drown in his blood by attacking our territory!" the leader of the Right Sector said at the time."

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 If he changed the Government, he could present it as regime change, rather than territory grabbing, as he did after Crimea.He probably figured he would get the same sanctions regardless, may as well get it all and finish it.

OK, it's dumb, but it's internally consistent.

It is completely unconsistent. If you really believe that group of people completely dependent on West, with all their assets in Western banks, children living luxury life in Europe and nice places of USA etc. suddenly, after decasdes of enjoying comprador status, decided to "get the same sanctions" for doing something good for Russia (not for themselves) - well, there is a lot of bridges for sale....

[Roman Alymov]

Iskander (or Tornado  -not known for sure) strikes on pro-Ukrainian training ground and railway train being loaded with vehicles. Note dense fragments hit field https://t.me/milinfolive/107314?single

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 If he changed the Government, he could present it as regime change, rather than territory grabbing, as he did after Crimea.He probably figured he would get the same sanctions regardless, may as well get it all and finish it.

OK, it's dumb, but it's internally consistent.

That. It worked once, fight your next conflict like your last. 

[Strannik]

9 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, it reads completely differently elsewhere.

But OK. The Russian army is not fleeing headlessly. Unless the enemy was overwhelming. 😎

Tomorrow our colleague @Strannik will tell us that Russia was able to repel Ukraine's imminent attack on Russia in a preemptive attack.

Did I hurt your tender feelings by not reciting western bs narrative about brave not-Nazi-just-Waffen-SS-cosplayers smiting the hordes of mongoloid Russians?

Oh, shucks.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Strannik

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Iskander (or Tornado  -not known for sure) strikes on pro-Ukrainian training ground and railway train being loaded with vehicles. Note dense fragments hit field https://t.me/milinfolive/107314?single

Looks like Iskander. The fragments being that far out looks the warhead is too big for what is on an MRLS rocket 

[seahawk]

Good news. Slovakian elections saw a victory of a party that wants to end support to the Ukraine and return to normal relations with Russia. People are waking up!

Also more successful strikes by the mighty Russian Air Force. Kehrson got a major UMPK hit on a resupply depot. Causalities are said to be massive.

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 hours ago, Strannik said:

Did I hurt your tender feelings by not reciting western bs narrative about brave not-Nazi-just-Waffen-SS-cosplayers smiting the hordes of mongoloid Russians?

Oh, shucks.

 

 

When you are reaching for a homocidal maniac whom encouraged Khrushchev to start WW3, then you know full well you dont have many arguments left.

[Perun]

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

When you are reaching for a homocidal maniac whom encouraged Khrushchev to start WW3, then you know full well you dont have many arguments left.

I would like to see your sources, again 🤣

[Stuart Galbraith]

Naftali and Fursenko's 'One Hell of a Gamble'. I seem to recall Serii Ploky's 'Nuclear Folly' also brought it up.

Or you could just read Castro's letter to Khrushchev. Khrushchev certainly read it as advocating a Soviet first strike on the US, and quite frankly, so do I.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/jfk-attack/

Letter from Fidel Castro to Nikita Khrushchev
October 26, 1962

Dear Comrade Khrushchev:

Given the analysis of the situation and the reports which have reached us, [I] consider an attack to be almost imminent -- within the next 24 to 72 hours. There are two possible variants: the first and most probable one is an air attack against certain objectives with the limited aim of destroying them; the second, and though less probable, still possible, is a full invasion. This would require a large force and is the most repugnant form of aggression, which might restrain them.

You can be sure that we will resist with determination, whatever the case. The Cuban people's morale is extremely high and the people will confront aggression heroically.

I would like to briefly express my own personal opinion.

If the second variant takes place and the imperialists invade Cuba with the aim of occupying it, the dangers of their aggressive policy are so great that after such an invasion the Soviet Union must never allow circumstances in which the imperialists could carry out a nuclear first strike against it.

I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba -- a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law -- then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.

This opinion is shaped by observing the development of their aggressive policy. The imperialists, without regard for world opinion and against laws and principles, have blockaded the seas, violated our air-space, and are preparing to invade, while at the same time blocking any possibility of negotiation, even though they understand the gravity of the problem.

You have been, and are, a tireless defender of peace, and I understand that these moments, when the results of your superhuman efforts are so seriously threatened, must be bitter for you. We will maintain our hopes for saving the peace until the last moment, and we are ready to contribute to this in any way we can. But, at the same time, we are serene and ready to confront a situation which we see as very real and imminent.

I convey to you the infinite gratitude and recognition of the Cuban people to the Soviet people, who have been so generous and fraternal, along with our profound gratitude and admiration to you personally. We wish you success with the enormous task and great responsibilities which are in your hands.

Fraternally,

Fidel Castro

 

Still going to criticise my sources, when they tell you something you dont want to hear?

[Roman Alymov]

Reuters article on Cubans joining Russian Army  - the stories told seems plausable, at least amounts of money paid and other terms are quite consistant with ones for regular Russian Army soldiers.

Special Report: How Cubans were recruited to fight for Russia | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/whatsapp-war-how-cubans-were-recruited-fight-russia-2023-09-30/

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

If the second variant takes place and the imperialists invade Cuba with the aim of occupying it, the dangers of their aggressive policy are so great that after such an invasion the Soviet Union must never allow circumstances in which the imperialists could carry out a nuclear first strike against it.

I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba -- a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law -- then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.

 

Still going to criticise my sources, when they tell you something you dont want to hear?

So what this document is saying, as far as i can see, is de-facto following: leader of small island nation sees the posibility of all-out attack by neighboring agressive superpower (with track record of invasions) and is politely asking his ally, distant superpower, to reply to this attack, if it happens in full scale, with all possible means, including nuclear strike. You call him "homocidal maniac", correct?

[Stuart Galbraith]

No, far from it. He is saying if he gets invaded, conventionally, 'then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.'

Basically, he is telling the USSR to respond to a conventional attack with an all out Thermonuclear war. Obliteration of the capitalist world in fact. Which, funnily enough, would be the only reason why the USA would conventionally invade Cuba, because Cuba was giving the USSR the capacity, for the first time since the nuclear age began, to actually do it.

To be fair to him, the Soviet Ambassador did say he was dangerously excited at the time. Which I always assumed was a polite euthemism for 'Drunk'. But its very clear what he is saying. Khrushchev, a man not blessed with great smarts, had no difficulty working it out, and you, clearly a lot smarter, should have no problem.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/castro-letter-khrushchev/

''In your cable of October 27 you proposed that we be the first to carry out a nuclear strike against the enemy’s territory. Naturally you understand where that would lead us. It would not be a simple strike, but the start of a thermonuclear world war.

Dear Comrade Fidel Castro, I find your proposal to be wrong, even though I understand your reasons.

We have lived through a very grave moment, a global thermonuclear war could have broken out. Of course the United States would have suffered enormous losses, but the Soviet Union and the whole socialist bloc would have also suffered greatly. It is even difficult to say how things would have ended for the Cuban people. First of all, Cuba would have burned in the fires of war. Without a doubt the Cuban people would have fought courageously but, also without a doubt, the Cuban people would have perished heroically. We struggle against imperialism, not in order to die, but to draw on all of our potential, to lose as little as possible, and later to win more, so as to be a victor and make communism triumph.''

 

Well I think that neatly clears that up. Any problem with my sources so far Perun?

 

[Perun]

52 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Naftali and Fursenko's 'One Hell of a Gamble'. I seem to recall Serii Ploky's 'Nuclear Folly' also brought it up.

Or you could just read Castro's letter to Khrushchev. Khrushchev certainly read it as advocating a Soviet first strike on the US, and quite frankly, so do I.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/jfk-attack/

Letter from Fidel Castro to Nikita Khrushchev
October 26, 1962

Dear Comrade Khrushchev:

Given the analysis of the situation and the reports which have reached us, [I] consider an attack to be almost imminent -- within the next 24 to 72 hours. There are two possible variants: the first and most probable one is an air attack against certain objectives with the limited aim of destroying them; the second, and though less probable, still possible, is a full invasion. This would require a large force and is the most repugnant form of aggression, which might restrain them.

You can be sure that we will resist with determination, whatever the case. The Cuban people's morale is extremely high and the people will confront aggression heroically.

I would like to briefly express my own personal opinion.

If the second variant takes place and the imperialists invade Cuba with the aim of occupying it, the dangers of their aggressive policy are so great that after such an invasion the Soviet Union must never allow circumstances in which the imperialists could carry out a nuclear first strike against it.

I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba -- a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law -- then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other.

This opinion is shaped by observing the development of their aggressive policy. The imperialists, without regard for world opinion and against laws and principles, have blockaded the seas, violated our air-space, and are preparing to invade, while at the same time blocking any possibility of negotiation, even though they understand the gravity of the problem.

You have been, and are, a tireless defender of peace, and I understand that these moments, when the results of your superhuman efforts are so seriously threatened, must be bitter for you. We will maintain our hopes for saving the peace until the last moment, and we are ready to contribute to this in any way we can. But, at the same time, we are serene and ready to confront a situation which we see as very real and imminent.

I convey to you the infinite gratitude and recognition of the Cuban people to the Soviet people, who have been so generous and fraternal, along with our profound gratitude and admiration to you personally. We wish you success with the enormous task and great responsibilities which are in your hands.

Fraternally,

Fidel Castro

 

Still going to criticise my sources, when they tell you something you dont want to hear?

Thank you for your effort. I will try to find some other sources on that and I will send them to you

[Stuart Galbraith]

You are very welcome.👍

If you are interested in the Cuban missile crisis, try and get this book, its a transcript of all the conversations recorded on tape. There are some mistakes pointed out in another book. But nobody has yet done it any better.

https://www.amazon.com/Kennedy-Tapes-Inside-during-Missile/dp/0393322599

Regretably, not massive amounts from the soviet side out there. I think the only person that managed to try to get inside the Soviet side (with some success) was Plokhy.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Stuart Galbraith

[Perun]

47 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You are very welcome.👍

I like this tone of conversation much more.

For start I would recomend POV from other side involved in this crisis. Wikipiedia article is good starter:

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Карибский_кризис

 

[Strannik]

2 hours ago, Perun said:

Thank you for your effort. I will try to find some other sources on that and I will send them to you

It's a non sequitur for the subject at hand.

NATO was prepared to go nuclear first during the CW as well. 

[Perun]

Yes it was. Especialy at the time when US had massive advantage in numbers of A bombs. For example plan Dropshot...

Edited October 1, 2023 by Perun

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 minutes ago, Perun said:

I like this tone of conversation much more.

For start I would recomend POV from other side involved in this crisis. Wikipiedia article is good starter:

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Карибский_кризис

 

With me you reap what you sow and no more. Lets leave it at that, eh?

The Soviets to a large extent had a point. What they were doing was morally no worse than NATO putting Jupiters in Turkey and Italy. (Kennedy says on the tape 'what if we did what they have done', and McCone or McNamara says 'Well, we did!')

As Plokhy and others have pointed out, the problem was not putting nuclear weapons in Cuba. It was no different from what America did. The difference was America had given the USSR some considerable notice before placing them, and Khrushchev had believed he would place them in Cuba before the Americans would notice, because they could be hidden beneath Cuban palm tree's. As he said he wasnt going to do it to the Americans, and then did, then it left in the Americans the possiblity he was going to launch a surprise attack (Pearl Harbor came up a lot in American discussions). In those circumstances, they felt, understandably, they had to act.

Basically, if Khrushchev told the Americans they were coming, they would have been placed in Cuba, and there would probably be Russian missiles there to this day. His mistake was doing it covertly. A small mistake, but as it turnd out, a significant one.

13 minutes ago, Strannik said:

It's a non sequitur for the subject at hand.

NATO was prepared to go nuclear first during the CW as well. 

Both sides were.

Oh I dont know, it has a lot to teach us. Lets take the Castro letter. Lets say that in February 2022, Zelensky wrote a similar letter to Biden saying that he should go nuclear in response to a Russian conventional invasion. How do you think Biden would have reacted to that? More importantly, how do you think putin would have reacted, had he known such a letter had been written, and he didnt know how Biden would react to it? Would the invasion even have occurred? It seems unlikely. Putin likes pushing against unlocked doors, or at least ones he believes are unlocked.

 

[Roman Alymov]

On 9/29/2023 at 3:10 PM, mandeb48 said:

close infantry combat:

https://lostarmour.info/news/news_23_09_27_vsu_death

 

Synhronized version of the same episodes (pro-Rus drone video and helmet cam video of one of pro-Ukr soldiers KIA in this episode)

https://t.me/voenndelo/3478

Words are 

".... do not know, have not seen. 

<look> from that side. 

(distant shots, than close shots)

Aaaaaaa bullet, <it was> bullet. Tourniquet, <give me> tourniquet right now. <It was> from behind, from behind.

(close shots)

Bob, we are shot at from behind, save us Bob. Aaa Bob f*  (shots) 

Guys, i am surrendering, Guys i surrender"

Note he was reaching for hand grenade at the same time.....