Kiev Is Burning

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Yes, much like the Soviets in Korea or Vietnam (although there were in fact fighter pilots and some SAM operators in those cases). But my point was less about culpability and more about the fact that the war is not at all representative of what a conventional Russia-NATO war would look like.

There will be no NATO-Russia conventional war.   But who knows, the current situation might get reversed at some point.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Strannik

[Josh]

Actually in the beginning the predominant thought was that Ukraine would fall inside a few weeks.

[TrustMe]

Appoogies of it has already been seen.

 

[Colin]

6 hours ago, mkenny said:

That is the current 'revised' position.  At the start it was confidently predicted that the NATO trained and equipped client Army would sweep the Russians from the battlefield with its  unstoppable superior  mindset, elan and equipment. Am I the only one who can remember the spring  'Ssshhhhhh.....' videos where all the 'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'   were showcased one-after the other to strike terror into the hearts of the transfixed Russians soldiers who, we were told, were absolutely terrified of the coming storm. Raw untrained shovel-wielding conscripts  who would immediately bolt and run at the first sight of the returning panzers.  It really is hard to understand how wrong NATO 'intelligence' got it and how they completely underestimated the power of the Russian Army.

The current   'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'  is the 'F16' and the clamour for its introduction will contrast mightily with the silence when it too finds out  that Russia in nowhere near out of missiles....................

The manoeuvre warfare of the early days of the invasion would have suited Western doctrine perfectly. I guess is that NATO would struggle and suffer some initial reverses just as the Ukrainians have on the current prepared Russian defence lines. For the most part NATO gave up most of its assault breaching equipment and it would show. The only difference is that NATO could bring more airpower to the fight, eventually driving off Russian AD assets.   

[mkenny]

7 minutes ago, Colin said:

 The only difference is that NATO could bring more airpower to the fight, eventually driving off Russian AD assets.   

The same way all the previous 'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'    did? 

[R011]

28 minutes ago, Colin said:

The manoeuvre warfare of the early days of the invasion would have suited Western doctrine perfectly. I guess is that NATO would struggle and suffer some initial reverses just as the Ukrainians have on the current prepared Russian defence lines. For the most part NATO gave up most of its assault breaching equipment and it would show. The only difference is that NATO could bring more airpower to the fight, eventually driving off Russian AD assets.   

I'm sure with the plethora of contenton the internet, there must have been some making the claims kenny says they were making.  All te mainstream coverage was predicting a quick Russian victory until it became clear this was going to be a much longer war than the three day sppecial operation Putin was claiming.

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, R011 said:

I'm sure with the plethora of contenton the internet, there must have been some making the claims kenny says they were making.  

Here is your starter for 10. The  belief the 'war-winning game changing western uber-panzers would be decisive 

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

At least you had something to export and could export.

You guys were doing the (socialist) planning and rationing thing for quite some time after the war. We did the opposite despite strong opposition and it paid off quickly. 

Thats true, but at least in some cases it was necessary. There was a massive lack of warehouse space for one thing.

Its been often said, but Germany was lucky in one respect. By having all your industry devastated, it had to rebuild. Britain, whose most of its industry survived, didnt have to do nearly as much rebuilding, and suffered for the next 30 years using Victorian infrastructure. Im sure ive mentioned before when Boeing visited the handley page plant, and showed off the new Victor Bomber. Supposedly the story goes 'Gee mac, thats a swell airplane. But why are you building it in a barn?'

Our shipbuilding industry also declined for lack of capacity. The Americans, who ramped up to defeat the U Boat, had more capacity than they needed, and using the latest methods could build ships cheaper. In that you can see the roadmap for a lot of postwar decline. Socialism gets the blame for it, but without massive investment in our infrastructure, I suspect the same economic decline would have happened anyway.

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, mkenny said:

That is the current 'revised' position.  At the start it was confidently predicted that the NATO trained and equipped client Army would sweep the Russians from the battlefield with its  unstoppable superior  mindset, elan and equipment. Am I the only one who can remember the spring  'Ssshhhhhh.....' videos where all the 'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'   were showcased one-after the other to strike terror into the hearts of the transfixed Russians soldiers who, we were told, were absolutely terrified of the coming storm. Raw untrained shovel-wielding conscripts  who would immediately bolt and run at the first sight of the returning panzers.  It really is hard to understand how wrong NATO 'intelligence' got it and how they completely underestimated the power of the Russian Army.

The current   'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'  is the 'F16' and the clamour for its introduction will contrast mightily with the silence when it too finds out  that Russia in nowhere near out of missiles....................

Whom by? Not by anyone here. Most of the people here believed that Russia would win in short order. I personally said (you can go check of you dont believe me) the Ukrainians would bloody their nose, perhaps badly, but would eventually lose as Russia's numbers too toll.  And its not as if Ukraine had much superior NATO equipment anyway. A few thousand Javelins and NLAWs? Most of the equipment that stalled Russia in 2022 was prime Soviet Stronk. The only difference was, they seemed to know how to use it, and the Russians didnt.

And finally, its not over yet. You are already predicting a stalled war, when its not over yet. You really must lend me your crystal ball one of these days.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Whom by? Not by anyone here. Most of the people here believed that Russia would win in short order. I personally said (you can go check of you dont believe me) the Ukrainians would bloody their nose, perhaps badly, but would eventually lose as Russia's numbers too toll.  And its not as if Ukraine had much superior NATO equipment anyway. A few thousand Javelins and NLAWs? Most of the equipment that stalled Russia in 2022 was prime Soviet Stronk. The only difference was, they seemed to know how to use it, and the Russians didnt.

The problem is, Russian Army have entered "big war" with less numbers than pro-Ukrainians had, and even now, after almost two years of war, is outnumbered almost 2 to 1 (if we believe in pro-Ukrainian claims of having about 1 mln men with arms).

[Roman Alymov]

23 hours ago, DB said:

Russia, redefining "short victorious war" since 24 Feb 2022.

Could you please direct me to Russian source where this claim of "short victorious war" came from, please? Mind you, by Feb 2022 the war was already 8 years long, and pro-Russians expectations were "this war will be longer and more brutal than Chechnya-1" (see my comment from Feb 27, 2022)

 

[Roman Alymov]

About 2.8 mln Russian passports issued to new citizens of RF in Zaporozhye regions, about 400k more expected to be issued by the end of the year https://t.me/suverenka/4857

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Ukr video of damaged Msta-B video on Verbovoye direction (seems like not fresh hit, note right wheel removed) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98929

[Roman Alymov]

Russian tank on fire mission somewhere near Maryinka https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98933 Note smoke charges used, and avoiding static positions.

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Whom by? Not by anyone here. Most of the people here believed that Russia would win in short order. I personally said (you can go check of you dont believe me) the Ukrainians would bloody their nose, perhaps badly, but would eventually lose as Russia's numbers too toll.  And its not as if Ukraine had much superior NATO equipment anyway. A few thousand Javelins and NLAWs? Most of the equipment that stalled Russia in 2022 was prime Soviet Stronk. The only difference was, they seemed to know how to use it, and the Russians didnt.

And finally, its not over yet. You are already predicting a stalled war, when its not over yet. You really must lend me your crystal ball one of these days.

Actually, it's pretty easy to check, since helpfully, Putin invaded around page 1000 and most around here didn't believe that Russia would win in short order, despite some gems such as:

On 2/20/2022 at 8:33 PM, Roman Alymov said:

Yes average Russians are WAY better informed than audience of so called “free media”. It may sound strange for you, but even so called “state media” in Russia are now going into details about Western claims of Russian attack on Ukraine etc. And it is strong reason for that: the more claims, the more stupid and irrelevant are Western media in the eyes of regular Russians. Even pro-Western liberals inside Russia are annoyed by obvious stupidity of their Western masters, Let me quote from ultra-Liberal pro-Western Ksenia Sobchak's Instagram
“I was silent here about the whole war, so as not to add to the hysteria that the media staged. But now I'll tell you. I have to admit that against the background of this crisis, this real hysteria in American newspapers, Biden's statements ("The war is exactly the 16th"), Zelensky ("War? So let's hang out flags and put on ribbons!"), Putin looked like a mature, adequate politician. And this is what the Western media has achieved in an amazing way from me, a person with liberal views. The level of nonsense and mudism around the 16th was such that you can't think of a better PR campaign in Russia.
But the main conclusion, gentlemen journalists: please remember all these "sources" and the price of them. Bild newspaper with an exact capture plan, Reuters with donated blood, chemical weapons from Ukraine, and eternal "experts" of domestic TV. At least it's not a shame for them for a long time, unlike the Financial Times, which publishes fakes. The main conclusion for an intelligent observer: the media remained the fourth power. But now this power is based on fakes and hysteria. And nobody cares. You will forget in a week and will be sharing another crap, forgetting that literally just now you are already totally on…
The media today is the collective Simon Levaev, the fraudster from the Netflix movie, the hero of our time. "We have security issues."
Meanwhile, those who bought up the shares of Yandex and Sberbank that fell on rumors of war have already earned billions.” 
Let me remind you Sobchak was once supporter of Maidan....

On 2/18/2022 at 9:59 PM, Perun said:

There wont be war, this is just for better position at green table (both sides)

On 2/18/2022 at 7:37 PM, seahawk said:

Why? They have the manpower to be in Kiev in 2 days and be done with it. They also have a long historic experience in dealing with insurgents. Round up the locals and sent them to Siberia will solve the problems quickly.

[Roman Alymov]

FPV drones vs. immobilized and abandoned Strv.122A somewhere in Zaporozhye region https://t.me/milinfolive/107203

[Pavel Novak]

34 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Could you please direct me to Russian source where this claim of "short victorious war" came from, please? Mind you, by Feb 2022 the war was already 8 years long, and pro-Russians expectations were "this war will be longer and more brutal than Chechnya-1" (see my comment from Feb 27, 2022)

 

Apparently from Putin himself:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis.html

Anyway you have quite a selective memory when you can remember years old posts but you cannot remember videos from Russian TV boasting how quickly they can defeat Ukraine.

[Roman Alymov]

Australian Bushmaster PVM MRAP after hitting landmine somewhere near Klescheevka, filmed by pro-Ukrainains (words behind camera is sort of "That is a bad day, we run at landmine about 20 meters from destination point, so now we have to go on foot - luckily mobody was injured") https://t.me/milinfolive/107219

Another destroyed Bushmaster https://t.me/milinfolive/107257

Edited September 30, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its been often said, but Germany was lucky in one respect. By having all your industry devastated, it had to rebuild.

It actually wasn't. Direct damage to factories was rather limited. According to post war American assessment. The collapse of production in late 44 was due to fighter bombers severely restricting transportation. 

After the war the economy was hit by the four way separation of the country and dismantling of industrial plants. But the latter was predominantly done in the east and you and the Americans swiftly merged your zones economically. 

[Josh]

9 hours ago, mkenny said:

The same way all the previous 'war-winning game changing western wunder-waffen'    did? 

Ukrainian aircraft are all Soviet in production. And yet they they still bomb Crimea fairly regularly. NATO air power would be on a qualitatively and quantitatively different level.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Josh

[BansheeOne]

1 hour ago, Pavel Novak said:

Apparently from Putin himself:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis.html

Anyway you have quite a selective memory when you can remember years old posts but you cannot remember videos from Russian TV boasting how quickly they can defeat Ukraine.

Well, there was at least one Russian who got it right. I think this guy gets too little recognition (Google translation).

Quote

02/03/2022 20:42:00

Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists

About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos

Mikhail Khodarenok

About the author: Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok – ex-chief of the 1st direction group of the 1st directorate of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, colonel

Some representatives of the Russian political class today claim that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's figure out how much such statements correspond to reality.

In the Russian expert community, the opinion has recently become quite firmly entrenched that it will not even be necessary to send troops into the territory of Ukraine, since the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.

Some political scientists emphasize that a powerful Russian fire strike will destroy almost all surveillance and communications systems, artillery and tank formations. Moreover, a number of experts conclude that even one crushing blow from Russia will be enough to end such a war.

As icing on the cake, some analysts especially emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kiev regime.”

IT WILL NOT BE AN EASY WALK

Let's start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means in practice a complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the sentiments of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as is known, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.

It seems that the events in southeastern Ukraine in 2014 taught no one anything. Then, too, they expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine would turn into Novorossiya in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds. They were already drawing maps, estimating the personnel composition of future city and regional administrations, and designing state flags.

But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including cities such as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The Novorossiya project somehow imperceptibly fizzled out and quietly died.

In a word, a liberation campaign in 2022 following the model and likeness of 1939 will not work. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are truer than ever: “It seems that now we will not have an easy battle, but a difficult battle.”

[...]

ABOUT AIR DOMINATION

Sometimes in the Russian expert community it is argued (by fans of the Douai doctrine) that since hypothetical military operations in Ukraine will take place under conditions of complete dominance of Russian aviation in the air, the war will be extremely short-lived and will end in the shortest possible time.

At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition did not have a single aircraft or combat helicopter during the 1979–1989 conflict. And the war in this country dragged on for 10 years. The Chechen militants did not have a single aircraft. And the fight against them lasted several years and cost the federal forces a lot of blood and casualties.

But the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have some kind of combat aviation. As well as air defense systems.

By the way, Ukrainian crews of anti-aircraft missile forces (not at all Georgian) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in outright shock from the losses they had suffered. And you shouldn’t forget about this.

PAID IN ADVANCE

Now about the thesis “The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state.” Of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But we must also admit the following. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, then over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely based on NATO standards. And very modern weapons and equipment today are coming and continue to come to Ukraine from many countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.

As for the weakest point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – the Air Force. It cannot be ruled out that the collective West may, in a fairly short period of time, supply Kyiv with fighters, as they say, from the availability of armed forces - in other words, used ones. However, in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics, this second-hand aircraft will be quite comparable to most aircraft in the Russian fleet.

Of course, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are significantly inferior to the Russian Armed Forces in their combat and operational capabilities. No one doubts this - neither in the East nor in the West.

But this army cannot be taken lightly. In this regard, we must always remember the behest of Alexander Suvorov: “Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you.”

Now regarding the statement that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine.

It should be noted that most likely this will happen. However, this does not at all exclude, in the event of a Russian invasion, massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and large-scale supplies of all kinds of material resources. In this regard, the West has already shown an unprecedented consolidated position, which, it seems, was not predicted in Moscow.

There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin some kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War. It is also possible that there will be an influx of volunteers from the West, of which there may be a lot.

PARTISANS AND UNDERGROUND MEMBERS

And finally, about the duration of the hypothetical campaign. The Russian expert community refers to several hours, sometimes even several tens of minutes. At the same time, we somehow forget that we have already gone through all this. The phrase “take the city with one parachute regiment in two hours” has already become a classic of the genre.

It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multimillion-strong Soviet army fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years. But at present there is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily join the partisans. In addition, these formations could easily begin to operate on Russian territory.

[...]

CONCLUSIONS

In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. Statements by some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 30–40 minutes”, “Russia is capable of defeating Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious basis.

And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine at present fundamentally does not meet Russia’s national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their mischievous fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.

https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

[Josh]

WOW. He really nailed it.

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Pavel Novak said:

Apparently from Putin himself:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis.html

Anyway you have quite a selective memory when you can remember years old posts but you cannot remember videos from Russian TV boasting how quickly they can defeat Ukraine.

I'm sorry but in what way your article dated September 2, 2014, is valid to describe events in 2022? No doubt it was quite technically possible for Russia to take entire Ukraine in 2014 within days, and with next to no resustance - and failure to use this chance is what "collective Putin" is widely accused of by pro-Russians. 

       In 2022, after 8 years of SBU&Co rooting out any pro-Russian views in Ukraine (including extrajudicial killings etc., as it is now openly admitted) , and West pumping in weapons, training etc. expecting days-long campaign was obvious nonsence. Most of pro-Ukrainians now killed on frontline, and most of those who will be killed in future, could have been regular citizens of Russia for years now if only "appeasement of the West" not so concentrated on saving their assets in Western banks....

P.S. For illustration of situation in Ukraine in 2014 - in one of the Crimea flats that belonged to President Zelensky and were recently confiscated by local offiicals, Russian passport of his wife Elena Zelenskaya was found, issued April 2014 - it means she got it within the first groups. It was quite logical as back then standup comedian Zelensky expected he would continue his practice of profitable tours to Russia https://crimea-news.com/society/2023/09/30/1198280.html?ysclid=ln5zn0xeoh381944763 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[mkenny]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You really must lend me your crystal ball one of these days.

You definitely need one considering your 'prediction from 5/3/23

 

Here is a prediction, and Ive made one before but im not scared of looking like a fucking idiot in front of my peers. I think Ukraine will attack, it will be more powerful than expected, and the Russian morale will crack. That doesn mean an imminent Ukrainian victory either. It just means Russia is going to have to reach very deep to just hold onto what they have got.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, as I say, im not afraid of looking a fucking idiot. 

As for Russian morale, It still is cracking best I can tell from the evidence. What they arent doing is running, and stood behind a minefield they dont really need to. The test will come when/If Ukraine breaks through. If they stand then, Ill eat my words. Until then as far as Im concerned, this offensive is not over, and its still case not proven.

Ill unhappily admit though, its not looking good right now.