Kiev Is Burning

[glenn239]

10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Has anyone actually stopped to think how difficult it is to surrender to someone you are attacking?

1000, I can buy that. 10000? I think the crack pipe has been passed around once too many.

10,000 over 90 days is about 110 a day from an army of what, 300,000, on a front of what, 800km?   

[Stuart Galbraith]

22 minutes ago, Perun said:

Your sources are one sided, I told you that many times, didnt I. Mitrokhin archive are one of many sources as you should know, son

Meaning you choose not to accept their conclusions, hence they (and therefore I) must be wrong. Gotcha, consider me suitably chastened.

Incidentally much in mitrokhin has already been verified by other sources, not least the discovery of previously unknown atomic spy Melita Norwood, and NSA analyst Robert Lipka.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melita_Norwood

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Lipka

But let's not worry about actual facts, you have an important  narrative you want to sell.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

10,000 over 90 days is about 110 a day from an army of what, 300,000, on a front of what, 800km?   

Meaning you are going to move the goal posts, until you get the score you want?

You used duff information Glenn. There is no shame in it, I've done it myself unknowingly. But it doesn't matter how many siebel ferries you invoke, its demonstrably wrong and nobody believes your source.

Which is still TASS by the way.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oh, and Crimea is on fire, again. I'm sure there have been zero casualties again.

 

[Markus Becker]

Russian officials have photoshopped a photo of a (almost) dead soldier being awarded.

Russian soldier Artur Sultangaliev died the day before yesterday. He had been seriously wounded the day before, and in order to give positive news (not just an obituary), the regional military commissariat photoshopped a photo of his award and spread the news in local newspapers and administration press releases.

SRC: liveukraine_media

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[RETAC21]

19 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Russian officials have photoshopped a photo of a (almost) dead soldier being awarded.

Russian soldier Artur Sultangaliev died the day before yesterday. He had been seriously wounded the day before, and in order to give positive news (not just an obituary), the regional military commissariat photoshopped a photo of his award and spread the news in local newspapers and administration press releases.

SRC: liveukraine_media

 

 

Not photoshop, as you can see, there's no sahdow on the decesased feet, which means he has been summoned back from the dead with a ouija board, evidently

[Stuart Galbraith]

Zombie Wagner must die. That's a cracking idea for a novel there.

[crazyinsane105]

59 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Not photoshop, as you can see, there's no sahdow on the decesased feet, which means he has been summoned back from the dead with a ouija board, evidently

Or it’s from the book of the evil dead

 

 

[Markus Becker]

[mkenny]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Oh, and Crimea is on fire, again. I'm sure there have been zero casualties again.

 

The Ukrainian Press Release is out. It seems they have killed the  Commander of  The Black Sea Fleet....................once again!

[Stuart Galbraith]

Second times a charm.

[Strannik]

Stupid never dies.  Falling for NAFO animals.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Strannik

[seahawk]

Considering how the "offensive" failed, all the anti-Russian propaganda machine has left is fake news.

[DB]

Russia, redefining "short victorious war" since 24 Feb 2022.

[Perun]

Ukrainian, French defence ministers pledge to work together on arms

Reuters

...

"Dozens of projects have either been launched or are under discussion, aimed at organising joint production of new weapons or maintenance of weapons already with us," Umerov told a news conference alongside French minister Sebastien Lecornu.

The two sides, he said, were considering the establishment of a fund "to support joint ventures with our partners and companies which want to begin production in Ukraine".

Lecornu said France would "continue to help Ukraine as much as is necessary," but gave no details on arms that might yet be provided.

"This war could keep going on," he told reporters. "Let me restate our confidence in the Ukrainian arms for making this counteroffensive a success."

Ukraine's counteroffensive has focused on retaking areas of eastern Ukraine seized by Russian troops earlier this year and in advancing south to sever a land bridge established by Russia between annexed Crimea and positions held in the east.

France and Ukraine, Lecornu said, would consider "what we can do together in terms of (arms) acquisition or production". And Paris would maintain its current levels of training Ukrainian soldiers -- more than 7,000 this year.

Lecornu earlier discussed possibilities for joint weapons production with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

"I discussed with your ministers very specifically how French industry can help you. We, of course, will continue this work," Lecornu said in a video published by Zelenskiy on the Telegram messenger app.

Lecornu and Zelenskiy discussed bolstering Ukraine's air defences ahead of winter, the president's office said in a statement. Kyiv fears Russia will conduct a campaign of air strikes on critical energy infrastructure this winter.

Zelenskiy said he was grateful to French President Emmanuel Macron for military assistance, pointing in particular to the supply of anti-aircraft missile systems, Caesar self-propelled artillery units and Scalp cruise missiles.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-french-defence-ministers-pledge-work-together-arms-2023-09-28/

 

[Perun]

16 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Meaning you choose not to accept their conclusions, hence they (and therefore I) must be wrong. Gotcha, consider me suitably chastened.

Incidentally much in mitrokhin has already been verified by other sources, not least the discovery of previously unknown atomic spy Melita Norwood, and NSA analyst Robert Lipka.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melita_Norwood

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Lipka

But let's not worry about actual facts, you have an important  narrative you want to sell.

 

You often write faulty theses based on pure Cold War propaganda or on one-sided sources. I could give a lot of examples, but I don't want to bother others. But if you really want to, I'll write them to you. I see no reason for you to underestimate me other than to cover up that you're often wrong. Sometimes we agree and sometimes we don't. Let's leave it at that. We agree that we disagree.

[Perun]

Looking at this maps it seams that there are no offensive from any side. One side take few hills on one place and other side take few hills on other place. Nobreal gains only localy tactic ones.

Source of maps is:

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/09/world/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-maps-guide-dg/

Edited September 29, 2023 by Perun

[mandeb48]

close infantry combat:

https://lostarmour.info/news/news_23_09_27_vsu_death

drone vs leopard2

https://lostarmour.info/news/fpv_23_09_28_12-13_sudoplatov

drone vs pickup with infantry

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/7373?single

Edited September 29, 2023 by mandeb48

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, DB said:

Russia, redefining "short victorious war" since 24 Feb 2022.

Let's see who eventually loses the war, and how badly they do so in the end, then we can decide whether anyone at that point cares about how many days it took.

 

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Perun said:

Looking at this maps it seams that there are no offensive from any side. One side take few hills on one place and other side take few hills on other place. Nobreal gains only localy tactic ones.

The pattern of your maps and arrows is that when the Ukrainians advance, the Russians then advance on the flanks of the Ukrainian advance in order to create a cul de sac.

[txtree99]

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28.

Russian forces have reduced the tempo of their localized offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in recent days.

Russian aviation is increasingly active in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts and apparently less active in areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 27 to 28.

Several Russian milbloggers claimed that they self-censor the majority of their reporting amidst an apparent wider self-censorship in Russian reporting about the tactical realities on certain sectors of the front.

The Russian State Duma adopted a bill in its first reading that criminalizes promoting and justifying extremism, likely to encourage self-censorship in the Russian information space.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov during a meeting on September 28 amid continued speculations about Kadyrov’s health and public backlash against the recent behavior of Kadyrov’s son.

The Russian information space continued to criticize Armenian leadership and lament Russia’s perceived decreased influence in Armenia.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed gains.

Russian sources stated that the Russian Aerospace (VKS) Forces received a new batch of fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter and fourth-generation Su-35S air defense fighter aircraft on September 28.

Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated on September 28 that Ukrainian partisans set fire to a Russian military facility in occupied Yalta, Donetsk Oblast (21km southwest of Mariupol)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-28-2023

[ex2cav]

On 9/27/2023 at 5:24 PM, crazyinsane105 said:

Getting back to topic…

Past few days, there has been very little movement on either side. Heavy fighting but no territorial changes.

Also, talk of Ukrainians going through first Russian line of defense….there is a difference between a breach and a breakthrough. They have sent some units across including some vehicles, but as of now are holding off on an actual armored thrust. Issue is that the area the Ukrainians control is too narrow for a successful armored thrust to take place (meaning, Russian helicopters and ATGM crews will have a field day picking off vehicle after vehicle). Instead the Ukrainians are simply sending in smaller squads of men through certain areas, which makes progress excruciatingly slow, but don’t see any other choice given Russian defenses. 
 

Doesn’t seem like the Russians are trying to do much in the east either. 
 

If there isn’t much territorial changes by the time rains come in, war will have reached stalemate for much of the year it seems. 

2025 year of decision?

I don't know for sure, but it seems the Ukies aren't close to a breakthrough. They have made limited headway in one area, but it seems that will not turn into an operational breakthrough. The Russians will be able to contain them. 

"The rains are approaching". Well the Russians could attempt an offensive before everything gets bogged down and the Ukie's reserves are drained. However, I take it the Russians have decided to play a very long game, as has been discussed here, to drain the Ukrainian manpower and waste the country. I will go out on a limb and predict the Russian army will continue to build forces through the winter in preparation for a spring-summer offensive. At least they should, letting the war drag on without going onto the offensive to force a decision is more risky in my look at it. I think much of the rah--rah for the war has died down a bit in the west which lends itself to the Russian position.

To look after the war, it seems a new east vs west has arisen. If not an arms race, then at least larger armies and increased suspicion.

[Strannik]

31 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Let's see who eventually loses the war, and how badly they do so in the end, then we can decide whether anyone at that point cares about how many days it took.

 

True that SVO it is not and the miscalculations (as to what it takes to achieve the goals) were tremendous, but the end result still likely be catastrophic or Pyrrhic at least. 

We will see for whom and to what extent it would apply in the end.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Strannik

[ex2cav]

On 9/27/2023 at 10:41 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Once again, the point you don't seem to grasp is that is Ukraines choice, not yours.

It was different with China, the casualties were purely down to Stalin who didn't allow the war to stop.

Nice conflation of two entirely  different situations though.

It is partially Ukraine's choice. The USA has the final say for Ukraine whether the war continues or negotiation happens:

https://www.newsweek.com/america-pay-salaries-ukrainians-government-shutdown-1829505#:~:text=U.S. taxpayers will pay the,for Ukraine since Russia's invasion.

https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jul-19-2023-united-states-announces-additional-230-million-investment-ukraines-economy-and-reconstruction

It appears the US are supporting the government of Ukraine with munitions, training, equipment, government salaries, economic aid, and who knows what else. Without the international aid, I don't think there would be a country of Ukraine.