Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

18 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Coup by whom? If by pro-Western forces - it makes no sence as they are allready in power, so why overthrow themselves? If by pro-Russian forces  - it is highly unlikely since for last 30 years the whole "vertical of power" was constructed of people loyal to pro-Western forces (or, at least, very well hiding their real beliefs). Of course there could be skirmishes between "towers of Kremlin" for the role of Kronprinz, but it is not major political change.

Well there already was something pretty coup like attempted. But I agree the net result of any change of government would probably go to someone even more nationalistic.

18 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Russian resources are still not tapped (or, to be more correct, are deliberately blocked from being used to serve frontline). Come to Noscow - there is MASSIVE construction everywhere, including very unnecesarry one. What about building hangars for planes, shelters etc?   Or what about cars for troops on frontline? People are crowdfunding old SUVs and even regular passanger cars for frontline transportation across Russia, while Moscow alone we got 30 000 carshering cars, many of them SUVs  -well enough to provide every section on frontline with day-to-day utility car....

...and those resources being diverted to the war would be a dramatic change, as would be a full mobilization.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, ex2cav said:

I think you and Glenn are both correct. Ukraine should have accepted the Minsk accord(s), and provided limited autonomy to the break-away areas. The Ukrainians would have been able to join the EU, or EU like benefits, and agreed to not join Nato or host Nato forces in their country. 

It seems unlikely Minsk would have solved the problem permanently. It would have just set up the next conflict instead. Russian war aims were clearly much more than simply securing the break away areas, or even taking the entire oblast areas still under Ukrainian control. The Russia war effort clearly attempted to decapitate Ukraine and the stated goal is still to destroy it as a political and cultural entity. That isn't consistent with Minsk being the final word on the subject pre war.

 

2 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Though I don't know if Russia will take all lost territory. I keep hearing runors of a gigantic Russian offensive, but it is getting late in the year. If I hazard a guess, if the Russians do advance, they will primarily seek to destroy Ukrainian miltary power east of the Dnipro to force a decision. 

Something drastic would have to change for Russia to take significant territory, IMO. The only thing keeping their head above water right now is the extensive defenses and mine fields.

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Aw man, it's a bad week for NATO.

 

 

The jokers keep having fun: 

 

Russian media reports that the Russian Army has managed to shoot down a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile, killing the British crew.

 

Here is a leaked photo of British Storm Shadow crew clambering into their missiles to guide them on target.

 

 

 

 

 

[BansheeOne]

Ha, that's a blast from the past. 

https://combatace.com/forums/topic/95655-human-transport-by-fighter-planes-exint-pod/

[Stuart Galbraith]

They really should have made it into a Bond film by now...

[JWB]

 

[Markus Becker]

The West is getting the message about a year later. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Considering how many wars we have lost in the last 30 years, we really should.

[mkenny]

16 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

The West is getting the message about a year later. 

 You can overcome an enemy (locally) if you are prepared to sacrifice your soldiers . What happens when you run out of soldiers (strategically) before the enemy run out of ammo?

[JWB]

 

[mkenny]

15 minutes ago, JWB said:

 

Gasp!  'The Russian army has started using obsolete weapons from the 1960s and 70s.'. You mean really old  stuff like mines? They won't last long if they depend on  minefields. I remember months ago the Ukrainians posted films showing how easily the recently acquired war-winning game-changing western wunder-waffen  could easily breach minefields and remove the  even more obsolete dragons teeth obstacles. 

 

 

Next they will be telling us they  are forced to use shovels to defend themselves.......................

Edited September 26, 2023 by mkenny

[Josh]

Can we not post ridiculously long twitter threads in the future? 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[glenn239]

10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Oh, now you are claiming the mantle of Tankets Nostradamus.

The fangs out hair on fire crowd always argues for war, then blames everyone but themselves when their wars go pear shaped.  

[Markus Becker]

 

 

In post Soviet Russia days can last years! 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Markus Becker

[Stefan Kotsch]

4 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Ukraine should have accepted the Minsk accord(s), and provided limited autonomy to the break-away areas.

I would have given up the territories conquered by Russia in 2014/2015 and redrawn the Ukrainian-Russian border. Then Ukraine would be conflict-free and could have become a member of the EU or NATO. But that was absolutely not politically feasible in Ukraine.

The Minsk Agreement was already dictated by Russia because the West felt disturbed when doing business with Russia and wanted peace at any price. However, the so-called limited autonomy to the break-away areas would have brought nothing to Ukraine except a constant dictate from Moscow. In the long term, Ukraine would have become a willless subject of Russia.

Btw. By referring to the extremely solid defensive line, I meant that Russia has apparently recognized that this is the maximum achievable extent of the conquered areas. That wasn't the goal of the war, but it was better than nothing.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, ex2cav said:

I think you and Glenn are both correct. Ukraine should have accepted the Minsk accord(s), and provided limited autonomy to the break-away areas. The Ukrainians would have been able to join the EU, or EU like benefits, and agreed to not join Nato or host Nato forces in their country. 

Appeasing Putin was a tasteless job.  Nonetheless, it should have been done.  Had Ukraine agreed to all Russian demands in 2021 (Minsk accords, neutrality, recognize Crimea as Russian),  it would have avoided this war altogether and something like 200,000 dead Ukrainian kids would still be alive today.  Had Russia for some reason still attacked, then the Ukrainians would have had greater sympathy in the West and Global South.   There was no reason for Zelensky to take the confrontational path save one thing - he overrated his chances. 

Quote

Though I don't know if Russia will take all lost territory. I keep hearing runors of a gigantic Russian offensive, but it is getting late in the year. If I hazard a guess, if the Russians do advance, they will primarily seek to destroy Ukrainian miltary power east of the Dnipro to force a decision. 

Agreed.  I doubt the Russians will attack in large strength until they are in a position for a knockout blow.  For that to be the case, they need to ramp up their drone and anti-HIMARS game a few notches, and get enough forces deployed that they can collapse the Ukrainian army across a very wide front. 

[glenn239]

12 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Btw. By referring to the extremely solid defensive line, I meant that Russia has apparently recognized that this is the maximum achievable extent of the conquered areas. That wasn't the goal of the war, but it was better than nothing.

I think the Russian fortification lines have nothing to do with the ultimate Russian territorial objectives in Ukraine.  They are strictly opportunistic and tactical in nature, built against the current (and future) Ukrainian offensives, after which the Russians will start to advance again.

[mkenny]

58 minutes ago, Josh said:

Can we not post ridiculously long twitter threads in the future? 

Or just make Anton Gerashchenko a member to save the repeated  wholesale 'cut and paste' of his  rambling screeds on Titter(sic)/X

[mkenny]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I think the Russian fortification lines have nothing to do with the ultimate Russian territorial objectives in Ukraine.  They are strictly opportunistic and tactical in nature, built against the current (and future) Ukrainian offensives, after which the Russians will start to advance again.

To attrite and diminish stocks of the western war-winning game-changing wunder-waffen that would be essential to counter future Russian advances. 

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, mkenny said:

To attrite and diminish stocks of the western war-winning game-changing wunder-waffen that would be essential to counter future Russian advances. 

Well, it certainly was war winning in that Ukraine likely would not be in the fight, or would be doing so from the other side of the Dnieper, without it. Perhaps we should call it war-not-losing game-changing wunder-waffen? 

[BansheeOne]

I don't know if they're war-winning, but they have definitely been game-changing, as they changed the game from "when will Russia take Kiev" to "how much of its territory will Ukraine take back". 😋

[urbanoid]

Except the next gigantic Russian counteroffensive is inevitably coming, the Russians will take Lwów and reach Polish border. Ok, not this year, but 2024. Or maybe 2025. 2026 for sure.

Edited September 26, 2023 by urbanoid

[mkenny]

36 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

I don't know if they're war-winning, but they have definitely been game-changing, as they changed the game from "when will Russia take Kiev" to "how much of its territory will Ukraine take back". 😋

I thought the initial Russian set-backs were due to their poor preparation and massive over-confidence in their ability to deliver a knock-out blow.  The wunder-waffen did not kick in until the Russians pulled in their horns. 

The June 2023  'ssshhhh........' Ukrainian offensive is when they unleashed  the war-winning game-changing wunder-waffen   with a vengance to deliver a Russian rout/collapse  'within days'.

 

How did that work out?

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by mkenny

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ukraine was supposed to collapse  in 3 days. How did that work out?