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Kiev Is Burning


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26 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Second, the battle of Moscow continues to be won by the bootlickers of the West who prefer a conditional surrender to seeking a military victory

If there is a coup against Zelensky in Kyiv, the Russians will want the flexibility to negotiate with the new ownership.  By definition that scenario would be conditional terms.  I don't think anyone in Moscow believes that Zelensky will do anything but fight until the end, so if it's a war to the finish against Zelensky, they can always win it first and then impose whatever terms they want second.

Edited by glenn239
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14 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

If there is a coup against Zelensky in Kyiv, the Russians will want the flexibility to negotiate with the new ownership.  By definition that scenario would be conditional terms.  I don't think anyone in Moscow believes that Zelensky will do anything but fight until the end, so if it's a war to the finish against Zelensky, they can always win it first and then impose whatever terms they want second.

Dear God in heaven, I really want to grow what you are smoking.

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17 hours ago, mkenny said:

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive?

There already are a lot of Russian units attacking the Kupiansk-Kremina area trying to push the ZSU to the Oskil river, most likely to try to take pressure of the south along an axis that they can better supply. It seems to be going about as well as the Robotyne axis, that is to say, progress measured one field and treeline at a time at great cost.

Edited by Josh
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36 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

If there is a coup against Zelensky in Kyiv, the Russians will want the flexibility to negotiate with the new ownership.  By definition that scenario would be conditional terms.  I don't think anyone in Moscow believes that Zelensky will do anything but fight until the end, so if it's a war to the finish against Zelensky, they can always win it first and then impose whatever terms they want second.

And if there is a coup in Moscow?

As for winning the war and imposing terms, that is usually everyone's goal in a war. It does not seem like the Russians have the resource stream to physically do that unless something changes rather dramatically.

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The absolutely scary thing is going to be when these little quad copters are fully autonomous and doing this without operators. I think the Israelis already have something close to this. Technically the DoD has a policy of always employing a human operator to give a kill order, but I suspect that can be loosely interpreted to include entering a geo fenced target area and freely hunting there. Certainly neither the Russians nor Chinese likely will have any qualms about automation.

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43 minutes ago, Josh said:

As for winning the war and imposing terms, that is usually everyone's goal in a war. It does not seem like the Russians have the resource stream to physically do that unless something changes rather dramatically.

TASS: Either the Kiev regime capitulates to the conditions of the Russian Federation, or Ukraine will cease to exist as a state,” Volodin (Chairman of the State Duma) said.

https://tass.ru/politika/18831581

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1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

TASS: Either the Kiev regime capitulates to the conditions of the Russian Federation, or Ukraine will cease to exist as a state,” Volodin (Chairman of the State Duma) said.

https://tass.ru/politika/18831581

Second statement is pretty much the only thing the Russian Federation wants… 

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26 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Second statement is pretty much the only thing the Russian Federation wants… 

Over the last decade Russia has made clear what it 'wants' . They even managed to make a deal with The Ukrainians. If Boris Johnson had not intervened then  we would not be where we are today.

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36 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Second statement is pretty much the only thing the Russian Federation wants… 

Zero surprise.  I warned everyone here - including yourself - for 10 years before the war that Ukraine risked pricing Russia into increasingly devastating peace terms if there was an extended war.  Would you think Russian peace terms will get easier the longer the war goes on and the closer to collapse Ukraine gets?  That's not how it works, or has ever worked.  

 

Edited by glenn239
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8 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I warned everyone here - including yourself - for 10 years before the war that Ukraine risked pricing Russia into increasingly devastating peace terms if there was an extended war. 

What do you mean by that? Every state should bow to Russia's will? Preventive and precautionary?
Should the old communist Stalinist KGB officers in the world determine where states are allowed to develop?
 

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4 hours ago, KV7 said:

One possibility is a limited counteroffensive with the objective of demoralising Ukraine (i.e. by retaking from Ukraine ground they have just taken at huge cost) but without raising the prospect of large territorial losses which might make the west make some renewed effort to avoid defeat.

In order to conduct a decisive offensive the attack will need to be on a very wide front in order to stretch Ukrainian resources past the breaking point.  Drone support will have to be on a far larger scale than what we've seen so far, and countermeasures against drones and HIMARS would need to improve over what is in evidence now.   

A successful offensive would seek to induce frontline units to surrender en mass, (current firepower tactics do not give such opportunities), such that the rate at which the Ukrainian army collapses, and the length of front where this is occuring, is beyond the possibilities of whatever reserves are available to plug.

I doubt any of this is in the cards for the Russians this year.  Maybe some sort of smaller 'test' version, with a larger offensive following next spring, but at the moment I think HIMARS and drones are too lethal for an attack to succeed.

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14 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

What do you mean by that? Every state should bow to Russia's will? Preventive and precautionary?
Should the old communist Stalinist KGB officers in the world determine where states are allowed to develop?
 

I've warned you for maybe five years that if Ukraine got into a war with Russia, they were risking everything.  

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46 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I've warned you for maybe five years that if Ukraine got into a war with Russia, they were risking everything.  

I didn't ask that.

But this:

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

What do you mean by that? Every state should bow to Russia's will? Preventive and precautionary?
Should the old communist Stalinist KGB officers in the world determine where states are allowed to develop?
 

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5 hours ago, Josh said:

And if there is a coup in Moscow?

Coup by whom? If by pro-Western forces - it makes no sence as they are allready in power, so why overthrow themselves? If by pro-Russian forces  - it is highly unlikely since for last 30 years the whole "vertical of power" was constructed of people loyal to pro-Western forces (or, at least, very well hiding their real beliefs). Of course there could be skirmishes between "towers of Kremlin" for the role of Kronprinz, but it is not major political change.

5 hours ago, Josh said:

 It does not seem like the Russians have the resource stream to physically do that unless something changes rather dramatically.

Russian resources are still not tapped (or, to be more correct, are deliberately blocked from being used to serve frontline). Come to Noscow - there is MASSIVE construction everywhere, including very unnecesarry one. What about building hangars for planes, shelters etc?   Or what about cars for troops on frontline? People are crowdfunding old SUVs and even regular passanger cars for frontline transportation across Russia, while Moscow alone we got 30 000 carshering cars, many of them SUVs  -well enough to provide every section on frontline with day-to-day utility car....

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2 hours ago, mkenny said:

Over the last decade Russia has made clear what it 'wants' . They even managed to make a deal with The Ukrainians. If Boris Johnson had not intervened then  we would not be where we are today.

It was far from close deal. Remember russian proposal for numbers of Ukraine army personel and equipment, neutrality status, russian "peacekeepers" to watch on that neutrality status...

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