Kiev Is Burning

[Stefan Kotsch]

25 minutes ago, mkenny said:

38 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, the big victories...

 Who has the initiative at the moment?

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive

'Everyone knows that we are all fighting for our very existence...

If everyone does their duty, it must be possible to finally stop the storm from the steppe.  Now there is a front everywhere.  Everyone feels like a soldier who doesn't ask questions, but acts.'

https://www.saechsische.de/plus/letztes-aufgebot-auf-abruf-983234.html

🙃

[KV7]

6 hours ago, mkenny said:

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive?

A substantial Russian offensive seems not impossible but not very likely either. For many well discussed reasons, it won't be easy and then it is questionable if the leadership will risk such a difficult undertaking.

Also, there is a political aspect as I think the current defensive posture is designed to try to signal that if support for Ukraine is diminished, Russia is happy to sit on the current territory, which they perhaps think opens the space for a settlement. The counterpoint is that Ukraine itself likely will not settle unless there is a strategic shift, i.e. a rout of one front which makes fighting on seem very risky. So then the Russian strategy depends also on who are the key decision makers, i.e. do they need to break Western, or Ukrainian, resolve first, as an offensive may perhaps demoralise Ukraine, but also push the west to increase or renew aid.

[Ssnake]

So, your prediction is that it can go either way?

I agree.

[Stefan Kotsch]

In my opinion, the extreme fortification of the current defense line by Russia shows that they now want to hold on to what they have conquered. I don't see any great Russian offensives at the moment.
And as Murphy says. Make it tough enough for the enemy to get in and you won't be able to get out.

Russia is now seeking a Finland solution in which the Kremlin sets the conditions. But we don't live in 1940. It will be exciting.

[seahawk]

I think the Russians are preparing for a large winter offensive that will crush the anti-Russian forces and lead to a total victory for Russia by summer 2024. Sadly this won`t end the war, as a lot of territory needs to be liberated and reunited with Russia.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The only question in my mind is whether they reach the Elbe or just the Vistula this time.

[Roman Alymov]

FPV drone vs. mortar https://t.me/milinfolive/107023

[BansheeOne]

15 hours ago, glenn239 said:

What TASS report?  I saw this,

https://tass.com/defense/1679629

In fact looking it up, it was from RIA Novosti. Saw it on the newsticker of a German pro-Russian site which usually takes its cues from TASS, but not in this case.

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20230923/leopard-1898198014.html?_gl=1*2c0xtj*_ga*YW1wLXh3TFBYcS1Zdmp5Y1Rpd2RVZFVDMkE.

 

[Roman Alymov]

Archive vudeo (August 2023) of Tornado-S (or Iskander?) vs. pro-Ukr concentration, note secondary detonations and lots of civilian SUVs and busses used by pro-Ukrainians https://t.me/milinfolive/107024

Location https://t.me/creamy_caprice/2307

Edited September 25, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Markus Becker]

14 hours ago, mkenny said:

Yes!!!     Another  game-changing war-winning western wunder-waffen. 

Let's pretend Javelin, NLAW, various MANPADS and especially HIMARS don't exist. 🤦‍♂️

[Inhapi]

22 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

The German crew wore Wehrmacht uniforms and sang Nazi songs.  And everyone had a Hitler tattoo on their chest.

BREAKING: The information has been confirmed.  The gunner of the Leopard-2 tank actually survived and was able to escape to Germany.  He is injured but is in stable condition.
 But he can't remember anything anymore.

 

And they had the lost ark of the convenant strapped to the engine deck of the vehicle.

[BansheeOne]

Oh, oh, ever more detailed maps on the situation at Verbove!

[txtree99]

Key Takeaways:

Elements of three Russian divisions are actively defending against Ukrainian assaults around the Ukrainian salient in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian forces are attacking along three directions within the Orikhiv salient as of September 24.

Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces broke into Verbove on September 22 and continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.

Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove and could isolate the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka from its sister regiments in the Verbove area according to Russian sources.

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.

The Russian military command may be ordering these counterattacks to buy time, but it is unclear how the Kremlin intends to use time bought at such a price.

The Russian sacrifice of combat power to hold every meter may alternatively be intended to support the Kremlin’s informational and hybrid warfare objectives.

The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement.

Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 24.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

 

[DB]

6 hours ago, seahawk said:

I think the Russians are preparing for a large winter offensive that will crush the anti-Russian forces and lead to a total victory for Russia by summer 2024. Sadly this won`t end the war, as a lot of territory needs to be liberated and reunited with Russia.

I understand that Portugal is nice at any time of the year. Vodka cocktails over a round of golf in the Algarve, perhaps?

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

In fact looking it up, it was from RIA Novosti. Saw it on the newsticker of a German pro-Russian site which usually takes its cues from TASS, but not in this case.

Thanks for the clarification.  Generally speaking with TASS and the Ukraine war, they'll either report what appears to be decently accurate or not report at all.  (So anything to do with Russian losses just isn't there).  In something like the case of German crews, if ain't on TASS, it didn't happen.

Edited September 25, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

25 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

 

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.

So if the Ukrainians are advancing then the Russians are being defeated, and if the Ukrainians are not advancing then the Russians are failing to adhere to "operationally sound" tactical behaviour.  Got it.

[KV7]

10 hours ago, Ssnake said:

So, your prediction is that it can go either way?

I agree.

If that was a reply to me, then yes. But I would change the assessment based on many factors.

Currently I would put it at 20-30 % probability for something initiated during or shortly after the Ukrainian offensive. I would raise that if the war starts to unexpectedly look good for Russia and in particular if Ukrainian forces appear exhausted, and also if the prospects of a settlement decrease.

One possibility is a limited counteroffensive with the objective of demoralising Ukraine (i.e. by retaking from Ukraine ground they have just taken at huge cost) but without raising the prospect of large territorial losses which might make the west make some renewed effort to avoid defeat.

Edited September 25, 2023 by KV7

[mandeb48]

7 hours ago, seahawk said:

I think the Russians are preparing for a large winter offensive that will crush the anti-Russian forces and lead to a total victory for Russia by summer 2024. Sadly this won`t end the war, as a lot of territory needs to be liberated and reunited with Russia.

Three things I would think:
The first and most important , wear and tear is evident on both sides, it seems to me that both are begging for bad weather to arrive so they can rest.

Second, the battle of Moscow continues to be won by the bootlickers of the West who prefer a conditional surrender to seeking a military victory

Third, if the future "operation saturn" were being prepared, with gerasimov and shoigu in command, the chances of its success tend to zero.

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, DB said:

I understand that Portugal is nice at any time of the year. Vodka cocktails over a round of golf in the Algarve, perhaps?

If this is necessary to denazify Europe, so be it.

[glenn239]

26 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Second, the battle of Moscow continues to be won by the bootlickers of the West who prefer a conditional surrender to seeking a military victory

If there is a coup against Zelensky in Kyiv, the Russians will want the flexibility to negotiate with the new ownership.  By definition that scenario would be conditional terms.  I don't think anyone in Moscow believes that Zelensky will do anything but fight until the end, so if it's a war to the finish against Zelensky, they can always win it first and then impose whatever terms they want second.

Edited September 25, 2023 by glenn239

[seahawk]

Zelensky is a sock puppet. He has no own agenda, but is controlled by global russophobe networks.

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

If there is a coup against Zelensky in Kyiv, the Russians will want the flexibility to negotiate with the new ownership.  By definition that scenario would be conditional terms.  I don't think anyone in Moscow believes that Zelensky will do anything but fight until the end, so if it's a war to the finish against Zelensky, they can always win it first and then impose whatever terms they want second.

Dear God in heaven, I really want to grow what you are smoking.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Josh]

17 hours ago, mkenny said:

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive?

There already are a lot of Russian units attacking the Kupiansk-Kremina area trying to push the ZSU to the Oskil river, most likely to try to take pressure of the south along an axis that they can better supply. It seems to be going about as well as the Robotyne axis, that is to say, progress measured one field and treeline at a time at great cost.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Josh

[Josh]

36 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

If there is a coup against Zelensky in Kyiv, the Russians will want the flexibility to negotiate with the new ownership.  By definition that scenario would be conditional terms.  I don't think anyone in Moscow believes that Zelensky will do anything but fight until the end, so if it's a war to the finish against Zelensky, they can always win it first and then impose whatever terms they want second.

And if there is a coup in Moscow?

As for winning the war and imposing terms, that is usually everyone's goal in a war. It does not seem like the Russians have the resource stream to physically do that unless something changes rather dramatically.