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Posted
4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sure, sure, it's all over. :)

 

 

Yep just like  the 1945  Die Deutsche Wochenschau  was  showing how the Russians were being beaten on every front in The east.

Posted
12 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

I was thinking when I first read the TASS report yesterday "so they've run out of imaginary Poles to kill, now they've proceded to imaginary Germans." 😁

Don't be silly, some Polish guy was ironically wearing an East Prussian uniform.

Posted
3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

This story is very simple to decompose for everybody who is following events of this war since 2014. But for people from Western media bubble few basic sings are to be explained:

1) It is widely known for pro-Russians since 2014 that next to all pro-Ukrainians got nice story to tell in case of them being captured. "I have never shot", "I was forced into mobilization", "I am just cook", "i am just driver" etc. Some people believe it is result of training according to NATO manuals where reportedly possible POWs are advised to tell this stories to survive most dangerous moment when they are fresh captured, still not officially listed as POWs and could be shot by angry enemy sodier for being sniper/artillerymen/etc. Others believe it is Western Ukrainain tradition from the days Ukrainain Nationalists were operating undercover in what was Poland (and were considered terrorists, with all consequences attached). Anyway, sometimes it is taking grotesk forms  - for example, POW with official record of "mortar operator" in his documents was trying to convince pro-Russians he was not firing mortar   - "I was only throwing mine into barrel, and it was flying out all by itself". Because of that, pro-Russians often referred to UkrArmy as "Army of cooks and drivers"

It's an age-old survival tactic for any POWs, pretend to be pathetic and harmless, so maybe they'll take pity on you. Same was noticeable with interviewed Russian POWs, particularly in first weeks/months of the war.

Posted
2 hours ago, mkenny said:

Yep just like  the 1945  Die Deutsche Wochenschau  was  showing

Well, the big victories...

 Who has the initiative at the moment?

Posted
11 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, the big victories...

 Who has the initiative at the moment?

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive?

Posted
25 minutes ago, mkenny said:
38 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, the big victories...

 Who has the initiative at the moment?

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive

'Everyone knows that we are all fighting for our very existence...

If everyone does their duty, it must be possible to finally stop the storm from the steppe.  Now there is a front everywhere.  Everyone feels like a soldier who doesn't ask questions, but acts.'

https://www.saechsische.de/plus/letztes-aufgebot-auf-abruf-983234.html

🙃

Posted
6 hours ago, mkenny said:

The side letting the other bash its brains out in an impossible task?

The side holding back forces for its own offensive?

A substantial Russian offensive seems not impossible but not very likely either. For many well discussed reasons, it won't be easy and then it is questionable if the leadership will risk such a difficult undertaking.

Also, there is a political aspect as I think the current defensive posture is designed to try to signal that if support for Ukraine is diminished, Russia is happy to sit on the current territory, which they perhaps think opens the space for a settlement. The counterpoint is that Ukraine itself likely will not settle unless there is a strategic shift, i.e. a rout of one front which makes fighting on seem very risky. So then the Russian strategy depends also on who are the key decision makers, i.e. do they need to break Western, or Ukrainian, resolve first, as an offensive may perhaps demoralise Ukraine, but also push the west to increase or renew aid.

Posted

In my opinion, the extreme fortification of the current defense line by Russia shows that they now want to hold on to what they have conquered. I don't see any great Russian offensives at the moment.
And as Murphy says. Make it tough enough for the enemy to get in and you won't be able to get out.

Russia is now seeking a Finland solution in which the Kremlin sets the conditions. But we don't live in 1940. It will be exciting.

Posted

I think the Russians are preparing for a large winter offensive that will crush the anti-Russian forces and lead to a total victory for Russia by summer 2024. Sadly this won`t end the war, as a lot of territory needs to be liberated and reunited with Russia.

Posted
14 hours ago, mkenny said:

Yes!!!     Another  game-changing war-winning western wunder-waffen. 

Let's pretend Javelin, NLAW, various MANPADS and especially HIMARS don't exist. 🤦‍♂️

Posted
22 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

The German crew wore Wehrmacht uniforms and sang Nazi songs.  And everyone had a Hitler tattoo on their chest.

BREAKING: The information has been confirmed.  The gunner of the Leopard-2 tank actually survived and was able to escape to Germany.  He is injured but is in stable condition.
 But he can't remember anything anymore.

 

And they had the lost ark of the convenant strapped to the engine deck of the vehicle.

Posted

Key Takeaways:

Elements of three Russian divisions are actively defending against Ukrainian assaults around the Ukrainian salient in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian forces are attacking along three directions within the Orikhiv salient as of September 24.

Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces broke into Verbove on September 22 and continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.

Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove and could isolate the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka from its sister regiments in the Verbove area according to Russian sources.

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.

The Russian military command may be ordering these counterattacks to buy time, but it is unclear how the Kremlin intends to use time bought at such a price.

The Russian sacrifice of combat power to hold every meter may alternatively be intended to support the Kremlin’s informational and hybrid warfare objectives.

The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement.

Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 24.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

 

Posted
6 hours ago, seahawk said:

I think the Russians are preparing for a large winter offensive that will crush the anti-Russian forces and lead to a total victory for Russia by summer 2024. Sadly this won`t end the war, as a lot of territory needs to be liberated and reunited with Russia.

I understand that Portugal is nice at any time of the year. Vodka cocktails over a round of golf in the Algarve, perhaps?

Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

In fact looking it up, it was from RIA Novosti. Saw it on the newsticker of a German pro-Russian site which usually takes its cues from TASS, but not in this case.

Thanks for the clarification.  Generally speaking with TASS and the Ukraine war, they'll either report what appears to be decently accurate or not report at all.  (So anything to do with Russian losses just isn't there).  In something like the case of German crews, if ain't on TASS, it didn't happen.

Edited by glenn239
Posted
25 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

 

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.

So if the Ukrainians are advancing then the Russians are being defeated, and if the Ukrainians are not advancing then the Russians are failing to adhere to "operationally sound" tactical behaviour.  Got it.

Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Ssnake said:

So, your prediction is that it can go either way?

I agree.

If that was a reply to me, then yes. But I would change the assessment based on many factors.

Currently I would put it at 20-30 % probability for something initiated during or shortly after the Ukrainian offensive. I would raise that if the war starts to unexpectedly look good for Russia and in particular if Ukrainian forces appear exhausted, and also if the prospects of a settlement decrease.

One possibility is a limited counteroffensive with the objective of demoralising Ukraine (i.e. by retaking from Ukraine ground they have just taken at huge cost) but without raising the prospect of large territorial losses which might make the west make some renewed effort to avoid defeat.

Edited by KV7
Posted
7 hours ago, seahawk said:

I think the Russians are preparing for a large winter offensive that will crush the anti-Russian forces and lead to a total victory for Russia by summer 2024. Sadly this won`t end the war, as a lot of territory needs to be liberated and reunited with Russia.

Three things I would think:
The first and most important , wear and tear is evident on both sides, it seems to me that both are begging for bad weather to arrive so they can rest.

Second, the battle of Moscow continues to be won by the bootlickers of the West who prefer a conditional surrender to seeking a military victory

Third, if the future "operation saturn" were being prepared, with gerasimov and shoigu in command, the chances of its success tend to zero.

Posted
1 hour ago, DB said:

I understand that Portugal is nice at any time of the year. Vodka cocktails over a round of golf in the Algarve, perhaps?

If this is necessary to denazify Europe, so be it.

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