Kiev Is Burning

[txtree99]

Key Takeaways:

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian forces have not overcome all prepared Russian defensive positions near Verbove.

Ukrainian forces are deepening their penetration in Zaporizhia Oblast and are assaulting Novoprokopivka – a frontline village 1.5 km immediately south of Robotyne.

Ukrainian military officials stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would continue in the winter.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast has likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet).

A senior Ukrainian official explicitly confirmed that Ukraine’s objective in Bakhmut is to fix Russian forces. Ukraine’s fixing of Russian forces in Bakhmut may be alleviating pressure on the Kupyansk frontline.

Ukraine’s simultaneous counteroffensives in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine are impeding Russia’s long-term force generation efforts as Russia redeploys its new reserves to defend against Ukrainian advances.

A Ukrainian intelligence chief stated that the September 22 Ukrainian strike on the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Command headquarters in Sevastopol injured senior Russian commanders.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 22 to 23.

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation governor Yevgeny Balitsky appointed former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin as a Russian Federation Council senator representing occupied Zaporizhia Oblast

A Russian insider source argued that the Russian military should reintroduce military officers for political affairs (zampolits) to address the Russian military’s problems with political and ideological commitment– a problem that Russian military thinkers identified in September 2018.

Disjointed Wagner Group contingents reportedly returning to fight in Ukraine are likely to have a marginal impact on Russian combat capabilities without bringing the full suite of effectiveness Wagner had had as a unitary organization under financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s and founder Dmitry Utkin’s leadership.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances on September 23.

Russian authorities are reportedly embezzling funds from military facilities near the border of Ukraine.

Russian government programs continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.
 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-23-2023

 

[seahawk]

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well that sounds convincing. Did they capture a Polish lancer with his Cavalry horse as well?

 

The battle surely happened in the forest of coincidence, hours after Lavrov gave the speech at the UN, saying Russia actively fighting NATO, German troops are captured and Russian social media is buzzing.

The only thing I really find disturbing is for how stupid they are seeing their own population.

[Stuart Galbraith]

20 minutes ago, seahawk said:

The battle surely happened in the forest of coincidence, hours after Lavrov gave the speech at the UN, saying Russia actively fighting NATO, German troops are captured and Russian social media is buzzing.

The only thing I really find disturbing is for how stupid they are seeing their own population.

Its truly remarkable the dive in Russian propaganda these days. Its been noted on twitter that even the most ideologically reliable propagandists seem to be losing heart. Everyone is a drunk Law Haw Haw these days it seems, so sad.

[mkenny]

50 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its truly remarkable the dive in Russian propaganda these days. Its been noted on twitter that even the most ideologically reliable propagandists seem to be losing heart.

 

 

Not the ones I read. I suspect that limiting one's sources to those with which you agree with may be the source of the confusion.

 

 

 

50 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

 How do you know the missile shot was taken recently?

Because that Bradley is not in any of the many 'old' films of the area. Note the soldiers casually  walking about in the shrubbery behind it

 

The location of this Bradley is between the two Leopards at  A.   A, B & C are the high-water marks of the first day of the attack and C seems not to be as well known as the other two locations. 

 

 

 

A

B

 

C

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8608/2A0Ju0.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

[mkenny]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, that is pretty much my stance on it as well.

Must be uncomfortable knowing your ideological bedfellows are  'rootin for Putin'

[glenn239]

8 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

I was thinking when I first read the TASS report yesterday "so they've run out of imaginary Poles to kill, now they've proceded to imaginary Germans." 😁

What TASS report?  I saw this,

https://tass.com/defense/1679629

But it only says,

"In the course of combat operations, personnel of the battlegroup West destroyed two Leopard tanks, two 152mm towed howitzers 2A65 Msta-B and a mortar crew in the areas of Stelmakhovka, Krinichki, Peschanoye and Petropavlovka," he said.

According to the spokesman, the enemy attempted to rotate units of the 25th Airborne Brigade in the forward positions in the Berestovoye area, which is part of the defense line of the 1st Tank Army. Artillery fire from the battlegroup thwarted the rotation.

The enemy’s total losses were more than a company of personnel, two pickup trucks and one unmanned aerial vehicle.

Also, according to Zybinsky, the operational-tactical aircraft of the battlegroup inflicted an air strike on temporary bases of the 44th mechanized and 68th jager brigades near Kopanka and Pershotravnevoye in the Kupyansk area.

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, txtree99 said:

Key Takeaways:

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian forces have not overcome all prepared Russian defensive positions near Verbove.

Ukrainian forces are deepening their penetration in Zaporizhia Oblast and are assaulting Novoprokopivka – a frontline village 1.5 km immediately south of Robotyne.

Ukrainian military officials stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would continue in the winter.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast has likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet).

A senior Ukrainian official explicitly confirmed that Ukraine’s objective in Bakhmut is to fix Russian forces. Ukraine’s fixing of Russian forces in Bakhmut may be alleviating pressure on the Kupyansk frontline.

Ukraine’s simultaneous counteroffensives in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine are impeding Russia’s long-term force generation efforts as Russia redeploys its new reserves to defend against Ukrainian advances.

A Ukrainian intelligence chief stated that the September 22 Ukrainian strike on the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Command headquarters in Sevastopol injured senior Russian commanders.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 22 to 23.

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation governor Yevgeny Balitsky appointed former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin as a Russian Federation Council senator representing occupied Zaporizhia Oblast

A Russian insider source argued that the Russian military should reintroduce military officers for political affairs (zampolits) to address the Russian military’s problems with political and ideological commitment– a problem that Russian military thinkers identified in September 2018.

Disjointed Wagner Group contingents reportedly returning to fight in Ukraine are likely to have a marginal impact on Russian combat capabilities without bringing the full suite of effectiveness Wagner had had as a unitary organization under financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s and founder Dmitry Utkin’s leadership.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances on September 23.

Russian authorities are reportedly embezzling funds from military facilities near the border of Ukraine.

Russian government programs continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.
 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-23-2023

 

Deep State maps seems to contradict some of the claims above be though 

 

 

[Markus Becker]

7 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

The German crew wore Wehrmacht uniforms and sang Nazi songs.  And everyone had a Hitler tattoo on their chest.

BREAKING: The information has been confirmed.  The gunner of the Leopard-2 tank actually survived and was able to escape to Germany.  He is injured but is in stable condition.
 But he can't remember anything anymore.

 

You almost owe me a beer. 

[Markus Becker]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, that is pretty much my stance on it as well.

If only they had gotten ATACMS this spring and not in the autumn(probably). 

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

If only they had gotten ATACMS this spring and not in the autumn(probably). 

ATACMS, Abrams tanks, A10s, F16s. If you stop to think about it, there hasn't been a single piece of military equipment that hasn't arrived without weeks, if not months of dithering. Even the first Javelins had a withhold on using them except for purely defensive operations. They didn't supply more till the first NLAWS arrived.

 

[mkenny]

15 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

If only they had gotten ATACMS this spring and not in the autumn(probably). 

Yes!!!     Another  game-changing war-winning western wunder-waffen. It wilL make the capture of the next 6 miles of Russian fortifications much easier. Perhaps it will only take 75 days instead of 100?

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by mkenny

[mkenny]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

ATACMS, Abrams tanks, A10s, F16s. If you stop to think about it, there hasn't been a single piece of military equipment that hasn't arrived without weeks, if not months of dithering. Even the first Javelins had a withhold on using them except for purely defensive operations. They didn't supply more till the first NLAWS arrived.

 

You have to wait until the realisation of the  failure of the previous war-winning wunder-waffen  has fully sunk in before you start thowing more even better war-winning wunder-waffen  into the fray.  

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Yama said:

This has all the markings of a 'war story'. Most tanks are knocked out kilometres away and dfending infantry seldom gets a chance to inspect the wrecks. Foreign volunteers are mostly kept at their own outfits, or sometimes part of Ukrainian special forces units, or as instructors in trainer units. I could maybe believe that some German with working knowledge of Russian/Ukrainian could operate as a part of Leopard crew, but all-German Leopard crew? Unlikely.

Also no photographs of this groundbreaking discovery. Usually if Russians have found dead foreign fighters, their ID's are photographed and spread in (social) media.

This story is very simple to decompose for everybody who is following events of this war since 2014. But for people from Western media bubble few basic sings are to be explained:

1) It is widely known for pro-Russians since 2014 that next to all pro-Ukrainians got nice story to tell in case of them being captured. "I have never shot", "I was forced into mobilization", "I am just cook", "i am just driver" etc. Some people believe it is result of training according to NATO manuals where reportedly possible POWs are advised to tell this stories to survive most dangerous moment when they are fresh captured, still not officially listed as POWs and could be shot by angry enemy sodier for being sniper/artillerymen/etc. Others believe it is Western Ukrainain tradition from the days Ukrainain Nationalists were operating undercover in what was Poland (and were considered terrorists, with all consequences attached). Anyway, sometimes it is taking grotesk forms  - for example, POW with official record of "mortar operator" in his documents was trying to convince pro-Russians he was not firing mortar   - "I was only throwing mine into barrel, and it was flying out all by itself". Because of that, pro-Russians often referred to UkrArmy as "Army of cooks and drivers"
2) As pro-Russians of Novorossia, who both know well about  this tricks and got families living under UrkArmy shelling for years (and, as result, itching to add next "cook" or "driver" to KIA list, not POW one) are now increasingly merging into entire Russian Army, spreading the word about how to treat this cases - pro-Ukrainains are in bad need for new tales to tell in case of capture. 

3) The most simple "alibi" story to tell, almost guarantee to make another pro-Ukrainian soldier with low chances to become POW (as pro-Russians know there are allready about 8K of them "in stock" and no pressing need for new ones, while stories of Azov commanders exchange etc. made capturing pro-Ukrainians alive, let's say, unpopular idea since "Politicians and big brass will release them behind our back") - into high-value prisoner, at least for vital first hours when he is transported from frontline to rear areas and get registered - is to pretend to be foreigner. It is especially vital in case this guy is badly wounded and it is unlikely pro-Russians would carry him out if he is not of high value. So quite likely random pro-Ukrainian soldier, being injured and abandoned in "gray zone", decided it is nice idea to pretend to be "German tank driver". Why German - no idea, may be knowing few words from old Soviet war movies seen in childhood+German adult movies+experience of working in Germany as migrant worker (common among men of Western Ukraine) played key role. 
    So now we know why it was logical for UkrArmy soldier to pretend to be "German" (and even claim entire crew was German - may be he also wanted to save them if they were still alive).

   Now Part 2 will be "Why this story made it to media"

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, mkenny said:

You have to wait until the realisation of the  failure of the previous war-winning wunder-waffen  has fully sunk in before you start thowing more even better war-winning wunder-waffen  into the fray.  

Against T55s, for example.

 

[mkenny]

26 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Against T55s, for example.

 

The same 'T55s' that  turned this:

 

into this:

Those 'T54s'?

[Roman Alymov]

Part 2 - "Why this story made it to media"

First, let's see original news in Russian (took some time to find it since it was not big deal in media here)

LUGANSK, 23 Sep — RIA Novosti. Scouts of the Russian Armed Forces destroyed a Leopard tank transferred to Ukraine with a fully German crew consisting of servicemen of the German Armed Forces, the commander of the reconnaissance group operating in the Zaporozhye direction, with the call sign Legend, told RIA Novosti.

"When we stopped their next "meat assault" and trapped (destroyed with the help of ATGM. — Editor's note) Leopard, we moved forward to the burned equipment in the hope of taking the tongue. And they found out that the mechanic-driver of the tank was seriously injured, and the rest were killed. The mechanic, when he woke up and saw us, started shouting "nicht schissen" (don't shoot. — Ed.)", — said the commander of the group.

The "Legend" stressed that he knows German well.
" (The mechanical drive of a damaged tank. — Editor's note) said several times that he was not a mercenary, but a soldier of the Bundeswehr and the entire crew from one company," the fighter added.

The intelligence officer clarified that while the German serviceman was being given first aid, he named his brigade and its location.
As the commander added, when he interrogated the Bundeswehr fighter, the doctor of their reconnaissance group said that the mechanic had lost a lot of blood and the wound was severe.
"I asked the doc how much longer he would live, and the doc replied — a few more minutes. I told the German that the wound was too severe and he had no chance of surviving. He said that he loves his child and wife very much and regrets that he agreed to come here. We started to prepare him for evacuation, but he turned off and in a couple of minutes "zadvukhsotilsya" ("cargo 200" — killed in combat. — Ed.)", — said the Legend.

As the commander of the reconnaissance group shared, at first he was a little surprised to find a German in a damaged car.
"But then I was even glad that no matter which crew is sitting in the Leopard — Ukrainian militants or German servicemen, the result will be the same: German tanks will burn and American tanks will also burn, even if they are controlled by "Americans," the Russian intelligence officer stressed.

He appealed to Western instructors to think before going to participate in the battles for the AFU. "Let them think with their heads — about children, wives — before fighting with the Russians," concluded the scout." (original text here https://ria.ru/20230923/tank-1898197755.html?ysclid=lmxsqbizg4650210380 )

   What is strange in this text? First of all, "Zaporozhye direction" is hunreds of kilometers from Lugansk - but may be Lugansk, as relarively safe city, is the base for journalist who recorderd the story.

Second, "reconnaissance group" is not supposed to be sitting in trenched with ATGMs or even scout the wrecks of burned enemy tanks near them. It is the zone of regular infantry. So if really "reconnaissance group" was involved, as article says - this guys were crossing the "grey zone" with some sort of mission, probably far back beghind enemy lines.  Now imagine they have found "German" described in first part of my description. It is well known that usually recon groups do not take prisoners, if it is not their mission (as it will de-facto immobilize them). Especially if the prisoner is wounded. So logical step to group commander is to call higher ups and ask for instructions - proceed with mission usual way, or abort it and carry valuable prisoner back. Let's imagine, he was ordered to abort the mission and go back. No doubt, the message about "German taken POW" was immediately reported up the command ladder, and by the time recon group was back, they were allready waited for by the crowd of people eager to take part on "award-winning" event.

    Probably we will never know as if "German" really died of his wounds or he was helped to leave this world when it was discovered he is just another poor guy from Vinnitsa who failed to collect money to bribe his way out of Ukraine, and was trying to make his way to survival in POW camp by this small lie. It is not important, as story allready was in mil command reports and no way to backtrack it without harming careers of guys who first reported it. So most likely decision was taken "Let's assume it was truth, and if some big brass do not trust it - he could go himself to grey zone and check corpses personally".  And group commander was told something like "Since it was you who have started all this - now go to press and tell them the story both them and big brass will buy". So now we got the story published....

[Stefan Kotsch]

@mkenny  Shouldn't the arrows end before Kiev - after three days, according to plan?

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

@mkenny  Shouldn't the arrows end before Kiev - after three days, according to plan?

Do you have access to Russian command plan?

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 minutes ago, mkenny said:

The same 'T55s' that  turned this:

 

into this:

Those 'T54s'?

No, pretty sure that was mines, unless you can demonstrate large amounts of kills on Wstern Tanks?

I feel sure the osprey tome T55 vs Leopard 2 will be incredibly popular.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Rumours of a drone attack on khalino irbase, reported by fighterbomber, a usually fairly reliable source. Apparently that's an Su30 base.

[Roman Alymov]

Interviews with guys who have killed two Leopard-2 tanks recently. Note covered trenches with LED lights and even running water (see black plastic pipes) https://t.me/anna_news/56907

[Roman Alymov]

JDAMsky(?) vs. trainload of armor and military trucks https://t.me/milinfolive/107008

Note vehicles catching fire while out of blast area - probably as result of shrapnel hits.

P.S. Location ~50 km from Donetsk https://t.me/infomil_live/197

P.P.S. Sat photos https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98455

Edited September 24, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, pretty sure that was mines, 

You pick whichever shovel/T55 myth that takes your fancy.  A boatload of high-tec western-wunder-waffen  was transformed into scrap by an army of  shovel-weilding cowards. Unwilling conscripts  who it was confidently predicted would immediately take flight when the Tigers returned to the east. 

Oh how we laughed at those stupid Russians who believed trenches and dragons teeth would stop the mighty war-winning western wunder-waffen........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by mkenny

[Roman Alymov]

28 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Rumours of a drone attack on khalino irbase, reported by fighterbomber, a usually fairly reliable source. Apparently that's an Su30 base.

Reportedly pro-Ukrainian drone shot down by EW and landed near airfield exploded when VKS people were looking at it, with at least one person killed. Pro-Russians are allready semding return greeting written on JDAMsky

https://t.me/dva_majors/26216

[Stuart Galbraith]

Sure, sure, it's all over.