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Kiev Is Burning


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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia Oblast are currently penetrating, although ISW is not yet prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken fully through this Russian defensive layer.

Russian forces currently defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast have been unable to prevent Ukrainian forces from making gradual but steady advances since mid-August.

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes targeting the Russian airfield near occupied Saky, Crimea, and may have damaged Russian aircraft.

Satellite imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces also struck the 744th Communications Center of the Command of the Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea on September 20 as part of an apparent Ukrainian effort to target Black Sea Fleet facilities.

Russian forces conducted a notably large series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 20 to 21, likely to correspond with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the United States.

The Kremlin continues to seek to intensify divisions between Ukraine and its Central European partners following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The Russian State Duma will reportedly propose a bill allowing the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to include volunteer formations amid continued rumors about the Wagner Group operating alongside Rosgvardia.

The Kremlin is reportedly pushing propaganda narratives that highlight Russian artillery and aviation while downplaying the efforts of Russian forces conducting ground operations, likely in order to avoid discussion of Russian personnel losses and poor counterbattery capabilities.

The Kremlin is likely aiming to blame Armenian leadership and the West for Azerbaijan’s recent military operation into Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not advance.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2023

 

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6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

That's not cynical, just common sense. At election time, governments will naturally play to domestic over international interests. 

So Russian expansion is a huge threat to Poland and NATO, but at the same time, the Russian threat is so non-existent that Poland can throw Ukraine under the bus anytime without hesitation for the domestic audience.  Got it.  Sounds about exactly what I was expecting to hear.

Edited by glenn239
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Actually it is surprising how Western crowd here is celebrating old building in Sevastopol hit, but is ignoring really important events - like Ukraine's ONLY oil refinery (see my recent post about its importance below) attacked and, if not destroyed, stopped for some time  - video of cruise missile passing by to hit it https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98277 (seems like it is repeat strike after night attacks by Geran' https://t.me/dva_majors/25852 )

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Actually it is surprising how Western crowd here is celebrating old building in Sevastopol hit, but is ignoring really important events - like Ukraine's ONLY oil refinery (see my recent post about its importance below) attacked and, if not destroyed, stopped for some time  - video of cruise missile passing by to hit it https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98277 (seems like it is repeat strike after night attacks by Geran' https://t.me/dva_majors/25852 )

 

 

 

Took you long enough and be prepared for the reaction. 

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10 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Took you long enough and be prepared for the reaction. 

Yes, as long as 9 years (as simply switching off oil supply in 2014 was logic step). By the way still no infromation of oiland NG supply cut (at least no pro-Ukr complains about it) so quite likely both are still pumped in, as our "appeasement of the West" still hope they will be able to please South Europe by that and it will help them to negotiate some sort of controlled capitulation.

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Just now, lucklucky said:

Strange that HQ don't have air defence. Or it did not worked.

This HQ is historic administrative building, it is not supposed to be used in time of war at all. The problem is, there is no war declared, more over - everything is functioning in peacetime mode.

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34 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Actually it is surprising how Western crowd here is celebrating old building in Sevastopol hit, but is ignoring really important events - 

The Ukrainians are only 5 miles further forward at Robotyne compared to how far they got on day 1. The total distance  of that 'advance' in the last 110 days is...........9 miles!

If this was Normandy the advance would have moved from the beaches to the outskirts of Caen.

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