Kiev Is Burning

[ink]

I often find myself thinking things like: the Russians had GPS-guided, foling-wing missile in the works before the war, why wouldn't they suoer-charge that project now and give themselves the ability to hit targets like this airfield from the safety of flying behind their own front lines?

And just when I want to post that, I remember that they're desperately trying to wage this war as cheaply as they can. When you remember that, suddenly lots of things make much more sense.

On a separate note, an acquaintance of mine just came back from Moscow where he does business. He says everything there is perfectly normal and there's zero sense that the war is anything more than an item on the nightly news. He did say his business partners complained a lot that there's much less work than before... but that they also showed up to the meeting in brand new Audis and wore the latest Swiss watches (now, I couldn't give a flying f*** about cars and watches but this guy is into all that so I feel like he knows what he's talking about).

[RETAC21]

16 minutes ago, ink said:

I often find myself thinking things like: the Russians had GPS-guided, foling-wing missile in the works before the war, why wouldn't they suoer-charge that project now and give themselves the ability to hit targets like this airfield from the safety of flying behind their own front lines?

And just when I want to post that, I remember that they're desperately trying to wage this war as cheaply as they can. When you remember that, suddenly lots of things make much more sense.

On a separate note, an acquaintance of mine just came back from Moscow where he does business. He says everything there is perfectly normal and there's zero sense that the war is anything more than an item on the nightly news. He did say his business partners complained a lot that there's much less work than before... but that they also showed up to the meeting in brand new Audis and wore the latest Swiss watches (now, I couldn't give a flying f*** about cars and watches but this guy is into all that so I feel like he knows what he's talking about).

A fake saving if the war is not being won. 

My counterpart from Moscow is visiting this week and she says the same, war is something one sees in the news, if you want to pay attention, otherwise it's business as usual.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Ssnake]

4 hours ago, ink said:

The point is the Russian perception.

I just don't buy this excuse (I know that you're not really using it in that sense, but RU propaganda surely does). I don't buy it because Russian military presence along NATO borders was never really adequate if there was a true concern about NATO military aggression. Even now when Russian leaders claim that they are fighting an "open shadow war of survival against NATO" (whatever the flying f that's supposed to mean), they have denuded their entire northern and western flank of combat forces in pursuit of their imperial aspirations. It simply doesn't add up.

Conclusion:

Whatever reasons they put out that involve NATO, it's all a complete pile of manure. Propaganda aimed at the home front, to bluff sufficiently gullible politicians in the west, and the ubiquitous fifth columnists on the interweb. Or maybe it's just shit that they make up on the fly. Or they actually believe their own BS, but are really inept at drawing adequate military consequences, like not invading Ukraine because sending 80% of your army into that sector surely will incentivize NATO to launch the invasion that they've been secretly preparing for the last 60 years.

[JWB]

Helpless Russian soldiers fighting Ukraine 'with shovels' as weapon reserves run dry (msn.com)

[bojan]

2 minutes ago, JWB said:

Helpless Russian soldiers fighting Ukraine 'with shovels' as weapon reserves run dry (msn.com)

Do you really believe in the crap written there? If not, why post it?

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Probably would be shit anyway.

Honestly quite surprised at this. 

[sunday]

12 hours ago, ink said:

* "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."

The Sun Tzu quote that I keep remembering wrt the Ukraine situation is

Quote

To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

 

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Honestly quite surprised at this. 

I see news today that the Poles blew off Zelensky at the UN and cancelled a scheduled meeting. 

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

Not sure why SK will be one bit surprised by this decision. I expect the Russians to start selling NK modern equipment yet again 

[ink]

Yikes! Didn't see that coming:

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495

Still, I bet it's cleared up in the next day or two like last time.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by ink

[BansheeOne]

Or after the elections next month. I think the PiS just ran out of accusations against Russia, Germany and the EU for their campaign. 😁

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Honestly quite surprised at this. 

Wish I was, its par for the course from this silly old fart.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1704607390681666044?s=20

French wheeled AFV's of Death encounter famed Ukrainian mud.

[TrustMe]

Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495

[ink]

I don't know why I bother... 😂

[TrustMe]

Lol, sorry, didn't see it

 

[Markus Becker]

7 hours ago, ink said:

Yikes! Didn't see that coming:

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495

Still, I bet it's cleared up in the next day or two like last time.

 

A correction is out. Everything already agreed on/signed/ordered will be delivered.

[ink]

6 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

A correction is out. Everything already agreed on/signed/ordered will be delivered.

I knew it would be fixed but I didn't expect it to happen this quickly!

[seahawk]

3 hours ago, TrustMe said:

Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495

Remember what Russia predicted. Poland will attack and capture the Western part of the Ukraine. Seems they were right again.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The Russian Nazis fighting for Ukraine.

 

[crazyinsane105]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[DB]

On 9/19/2023 at 2:26 PM, Yama said:

I saw one comment on pro-Russian channel that they are hard to shoot down, as they fly low and unpredictably change their altitude, speed and direction. I doubt that SS is very stealthy, detection distance may be bit lower for surveillance radars, but I think that local systems see it just fine if it just flies to their view.

I don't know how through Russian AEW coverage is, but I doubt it is 24/7, as they don't have all that many A-50's.

Suchomimus (and presumably other youtubers if you don't like his content) has commentary on the claimed Pantsir engagement of a clearly identifiable Storm Shadow (or SCALP EG - I don't think you can realistically differentiate them in typical "gun camera" footage.)

Although the video is highly pixelated in places, and may have been edited, it's clear that the engagement envelope for a Storm Shadow detected by your own collocated and not mast-mounted radar is pretty short. Storm Shadow is very high subsonic, so unless you're externally cued you've probably got 30 or so seconds to identify and react to one, and that's if it's pretty much going overhead.

As for whether it's stealthy or not - I think that a low-level missile would likely be optimised to be low observable in the upper hemisphere so that airborne systems would have trouble getting long range detections (it relies on terrain following, or at least low altitude flight, to reduce the radar horizon for ground-based systems). I'm not a radar engineer, so wouldn't care to comment if the shape of Storm Shadow can be expected to be effective against high altitude radar systems.