Kiev Is Burning

[bd1]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

No, people of Kharkov, Odessa, Donetsk, Lugansk, Dnepropetrovsk etc. rose up spontaneously  -and where igmored by Russian Gov. In Kharkov. Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk uprising was crushed (remember all this rethoric about "bussed from Russia" and "Russians fron transnistria" here by usual suspects?) but while pro-Ukrainians were busy with this major centres (as we now know, by "diapearing" local pro-Russian activists and jailing others - secondary centres in Donetsk and Lugansk gained some strength and managed to prolong defence to the point when it became impossible for Russian Gov to pretend nothing happens if they are after all crashed, so some (very limited) help was provided, in expectation that some agreement will be reached between Russian elite and Ukrainian oligarchs (as it was repeatedly done before). But oligarchs of Ukraine lost their power to US Embassy, and agreement became impossible.

diapering is same as pampering or....?

 

oh and the spontaneous uprisings - girkin himself bragged that without him stirring it  all this ´war´ in 2014 would have ended with a whimper, no war, no nothing , couple of broken teeth and that´s it. 

too bad ukrainians didn´t´ took him into shithouse and scragged him ´ there, to use the terminology of president of russia, hundreds of thousands would be alive

editing to add the quote

Quote

"I was the one who pulled the trigger of this war," Strelkov said in an interview published Thursday with Russia's Zavtra newspaper, which espouses imperialist views.

"If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out — like in [the Ukrainian city of] Kharkiv, like in Odessa," Strelkov, who uses that nom-de-guerre meaning "Shooter" to replace his last name Girkin, was quoted as saying.

"There would have been several dozen killed, burned, detained. And that would have been the end of it. But the flywheel of the war, which is continuing to this day, was spun by our unit. We mixed up all the cards on the table," he said.

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by bd1

[TonyE]

23 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Previously unknown "improved Lancet" vs. MiG-29 at Krivoy Rog airfield, at least 100 km distance. Note old tyres used for constructing barriers, now we know where VKS got idea from 

https://t.me/Dnepro_Rub/1226

P.S. Lancet approach - from North, from territory controlled by pro-Ukrainians https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/29344

For those without Telegram:

 

[Markus Becker]

14 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

You mean, it was colonised long ago  

It was immigration. Like Russians moving to Crimea and then voting to remain part of the Russia when the Soviet Union fell apart. 

 

[glenn239]

8 hours ago, urbanoid said:

They should ask Glenn who will explain to them that it's impossible for Ukraine to have advantage in artillery, because there is a gorillion of artillery pieces in Russia.

You notice the difference between an artillery system and an artillery shell.  Huh, you get three brownie points.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Glenn, we have been telling you this for months. We can hardly be faulted for your not hearing it.

[glenn239]

38 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Previously unknown "improved Lancet" vs. MiG-29 at Krivoy Rog airfield, at least 100 km distance

100km is long enough to hunt HIMARS, but that would be a far more elusive target.

Edit - video above indicates 65km range.  

Edited September 19, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Glenn, we have been telling you this for months. We can hardly be faulted for your not hearing it.

One Russian report from one infantry unit in one town on the front that Russian attacks are being met with heavy artillery means jack shit in the overall artillery picture.   It's like a British soldier at Dunkirk saying that the Royal Air Force was a no-show.  The Russians are firing more shells per day, and the disparity is growing. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

8 minutes ago, bd1 said:

diapering is same as pampering or....?

Sorry, typing error on my part - "disappearing", but i am sure you got the meaning clearly.

10 minutes ago, bd1 said:

oh and the spontaneous uprisings - girkin himself bragged that without him stirring it  all this ´war´ in 2014 would have ended with a whimper, no war, no nothing , couple of broken teeth and that´s it. 

Strelkov, as long-time Russian Civil War historian and volunteer/officer of many wars,  is known for his scepticism about ability of almost all people (excluding handful of names) to stand strong enough to achieve victory. That is why he is very complex relations with other pro-Russians, mostly locals, who considered him, Moscow intellectual, a bit alien to brutal world of Donbass (while respecting his resolve). It is quite regilar situatioin for civil war - see classic "For Whom the Bell Tolls" where this conflict is demonstrated in sharper form.

    Newertheless, quick look at tomeline of events will show you that by the time Strelkov with his team entered the scene, uprising was allready well under way.

[Stuart Galbraith]

25 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

One Russian report from one infantry unit in one town on the front that Russian attacks are being met with heavy artillery means jack shit in the overall artillery picture.   It's like a British soldier at Dunkirk saying that the Royal Air Force was a no-show.  The Russians are firing more shells per day, and the disparity is growing. 

More shells from 55 percent assigned equipment maybe?

This is all stuff some of us was predicting by looking at the evidence. You know, I swear Ukraine could hold a victory parade in Moscow, and you guys would be claiming the evidence was contradictory.

[Roman Alymov]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

More shells from 55 percent assigned equipment maybe?

This is all stuff some of us was predicting by looking at the evidence. You know, I swear Ukraine could hold a victory parade in Moscow, and you guys would be claiming the evidence was contradictory.

Is it the same Budanov who have promised to capture Crimea by spring offencive, or some other Budanov?

    Let's wait and see....

[Josh]

55 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

One Russian report from one infantry unit in one town on the front that Russian attacks are being met with heavy artillery means jack shit in the overall artillery picture.   It's like a British soldier at Dunkirk saying that the Royal Air Force was a no-show.  The Russians are firing more shells per day, and the disparity is growing. 

Do you have links describing the volume of shells on both sides? Or is your analysis also based on anecdotal evidence?

[Josh]

The fact that the 76th GAA was committed is a strong indicator there aren't a lot of reserves left, but as for the equipment levels of new formations, I doubt we have any significant trustworthy information. Even if Russia is out of reserves, the most likely outcome seems to still be that the formations on the Robotyne axis hold on until the weather turns*. After that, the supply situation probably gets a lot more difficult for both sides, which would tend to favor the defense. On the other hand, bad weather probably makes UAV operations a lot more challenging for both sides. Not sure who that favors right now; certainly the Lancets seem to be one of Russia's more effective counter battery weapons right now.

*The new CAA in the east is actually on the offensive last I checked, so at worst it seems it will simply suspend operations.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Josh

[mkenny]

31 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Is it the same Budanov who have promised to capture Crimea by spring offencive, or some other Budanov?

    Let's wait and see....

Ah those giddy  far-off days when every single western expert/General/politician  and his dog were confidently predicting the looming Russian defeat and collapse.......

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

22 minutes ago, Josh said:

  On the other hand, bad weather probably makes UAV operations a lot more challenging for both sides. Not sure who that favors right now; 

Now pro-Ukrainian experts are saying bad weather would favour them. Will see. There is another factor not obvious for non-locals: this forest belts are all leafy trees, not pines   - and as autumn comes, they will drop leafs, making forest belts transparent and unable to provide any cover.

[sunday]

Seems the sensible stance is to read a lot, and refrain from making wild-*ss*d-guesses camouflaged as predictions.

[mkenny]

21 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Now pro-Ukrainian experts are saying bad weather would favour them. Will see. There is another factor not obvious for non-locals: this forest belts are all leafy trees, not pines   - and as autumn comes, they will drop leafs, making forest belts transparent and unable to provide any cover.

Same tree-line west of Robotyne,  winter and summer.

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by mkenny

[Roman Alymov]

3 hours ago, TonyE said:

For those without Telegram:

 

Frame from Lancet video 

Note there is another MiG-29 parked nearby plus at least one Su-25 visible briefly in upper left corner

 

[RETAC21]

9 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Frame from Lancet video 

Note there is another MiG-29 parked nearby plus at least one Su-25 visible briefly in upper left corner

 

Where there more than one drone? because it's a clear miss.

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Where there more than one drone? because it's a clear miss.

It is clear miss in terms of body-to-body hit, but detonation so close is enough to make the plane into wreck, at least for some (probably, prolonged) time.

   There was at least two drones (second one providing observation), and i wonder as if it was part of large strike reported couple of days ago by Rus MoD (claiming 2 Mig-29 and three Su-25 on this airfield)

[mkenny]

10 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Where there more than one drone? because it's a clear miss.

as were the strikes that destroyed the vehicles in this post 

 

[Roman Alymov]

Civil War is a place to meet interesting people

 

[Yama]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

100km is long enough to hunt HIMARS, but that would be a far more elusive target.

Edit - video above indicates 65km range.  

Map says 65km to closest nominally Russian held territory, but actual flight distance is probably at least 80km, note that the drone comes from the north.

 

[Yama]

25 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

It is clear miss in terms of body-to-body hit, but detonation so close is enough to make the plane into wreck, at least for some (probably, prolonged) time.

   There was at least two drones (second one providing observation), and i wonder as if it was part of large strike reported couple of days ago by Rus MoD (claiming 2 Mig-29 and three Su-25 on this airfield)

Operator underestimated the speed and the drone overshot. Some damage is done, but unless the plane caught fire, it is likely repairable.

I see one other MiG-29, something which looks like Su-25, and then some other straight-winged aeroplane, might be another Su-25, or L-39 or TB2.

Wonder how long they have been operating there from, they are not covered and would be visible from satellite pictures, I assume Russian satellites would manage to cover the field at least occassionally. Actually field is almost close enough to be hit by Smerch. OTOH, once again we see a drone observing a location which by all rights should be covered by air defence.

[crazyinsane105]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Do you have links describing the volume of shells on both sides? Or is your analysis also based on anecdotal evidence?

To be fair, I read an article from Business Insider that states Russia still has a pretty significant advantage in both shells fired and shell production capacity to this day. So Glenn isn’t completely off by this

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-fires-7k-rounds-a-day-russia-fired-60k-early-in-2023-report-2023-9?amp
 

Just three months ago, Zulazhny said Russia fires ten shells for every one Ukrainian shell. 
 

If these official sources aren’t enough proof that Russia has the advantage in numbers, I’m unsure what can change anyone’s mind if they believe otherwise 

Edited September 19, 2023 by crazyinsane105

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

To be fair, I read an article from Business Insider that states Russia still has a pretty significant advantage in both shells fired and shell production capacity to this day. So Glenn isn’t completely off by this

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-fires-7k-rounds-a-day-russia-fired-60k-early-in-2023-report-2023-9?amp

Number of shells fired discussed (among other topics)