Kiev Is Burning

[DB]

So what? If you think that the question of nations and ethnicities for Russia is complex, then perhaps you should note this is also true of the UK. Obviously, we just haven't found the right time to reinvade Ireland, pretending that they're all just British anyway.

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, DB said:

So what? If you think that the question of nations and ethnicities for Russia is complex, then perhaps you should note this is also true of the UK. Obviously, we just haven't found the right time to reinvade Ireland, pretending that they're all just British anyway.

As far as i remember, UK is allready having part of Ireland under occupation, and found some difficulty holding this limited part in not so distant past.

[Ssnake]

57 minutes ago, ink said:

can you even imagine a headline in a UK paper saying, "Two civilians killed by US air strikes"?

"Deadly US drone strike in Kabul did not break law, Pentagon says"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59157089

"US military admits it killed 10 civilians and targeted wrong vehicle"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/17/politics/kabul-drone-strike-us-military-intl-hnk/index.html

"Hidden Pentagon Records Reveal Patterns of Failure in Deadly Airstrikes"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/18/us/airstrikes-pentagon-records-civilian-deaths.html

"Video: How a U.S. Drone Strike Killed the Wrong Person"

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000007963596/us-drone-attack-kabul-investigation.html

"U.S. Drone Strikes Are Even Worse Than We Knew"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/us-drone-strikes-pentagon-papers/621094/

"Drone Strikes Gone Wrong: Fixing a Strategic Problem"

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/drone-strikes-gone-wrong-fixing-strategic-problem

 

The list of headlines, British papers or American, are endless, occasionally even just about a single death. So, it's not just that it's "imaginable", it's an easily discoverable reality if you just type in a few key words in Google and go through the links. Western media have never swept these stories under the rug. Could they have been emphasized more? Maybe. But I don't see Pentagon Propaganda of the "every single male above 12 years age is a hostile fighter" kind being uncritically parroted by the entire western press. You'll find examples, but pretending that they represent the norm or more than just a small fraction of the entire body of news coverage is in the best of cases willful ignorance.

[ink]

42 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

For years, our Gov was doing nothing about daily shelling of Donetsk and other places in Donbass. Even ignoired direc terror attack on regular city bus in Voronezh..... Only when completely cornered in the end of 2021, they have decided to do something. That is their true guilt.

 

 

Maybe that's the truth. I'm not in a position to judge. But, personally, I find the narrative that the people of Donetsk and Lugansk rose up spontaneously to liberate themselves from Ukrainian rule and were subsequently ignored by the central Russian government during the eight years from 2014 to 2022 less than convincing. 

Edited September 19 by ink

[ink]

37 minutes ago, DB said:

So what? If you think that the question of nations and ethnicities for Russia is complex, then perhaps you should note this is also true of the UK. Obviously, we just haven't found the right time to reinvade Ireland, pretending that they're all just British anyway.

I don't understand your comment. How is Ireland relevant? Do you think that by pointing out the complexity of the situation in Ukraine I was trying to justify the Russian invasion? Sorry, I just don't get it.

[ink]

23 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

"Deadly US drone strike in Kabul did not break law, Pentagon says"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59157089

"US military admits it killed 10 civilians and targeted wrong vehicle"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/17/politics/kabul-drone-strike-us-military-intl-hnk/index.html

"Hidden Pentagon Records Reveal Patterns of Failure in Deadly Airstrikes"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/18/us/airstrikes-pentagon-records-civilian-deaths.html

"Video: How a U.S. Drone Strike Killed the Wrong Person"

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000007963596/us-drone-attack-kabul-investigation.html

"U.S. Drone Strikes Are Even Worse Than We Knew"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/us-drone-strikes-pentagon-papers/621094/

"Drone Strikes Gone Wrong: Fixing a Strategic Problem"

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/drone-strikes-gone-wrong-fixing-strategic-problem

 

The list of headlines, British papers or American, are endless, occasionally even just about a single death. So, it's not just that it's "imaginable", it's an easily discoverable reality if you just type in a few key words in Google and go through the links. Western media have never swept these stories under the rug. Could they have been emphasized more? Maybe. But I don't see Pentagon Propaganda of the "every single male above 12 years age is a hostile fighter" kind being uncritically parroted by the entire western press. You'll find examples, but pretending that they represent the norm or more than just a small fraction of the entire body of news coverage is in the best of cases willful ignorance.

In that list I only see one headline that refers to a single casualty (the one about a strike killing the wrong person).

[Ssnake]

24 minutes ago, ink said:

I don't understand your comment. How is Ireland relevant? Do you think that by pointing out the complexity of the situation in Ukraine I was trying to justify the Russian invasion? Sorry, I just don't get it.

It's called "sarcasm", by applying standard Russian justifications to the British/Irish situation for absurdity.

[Ssnake]

24 minutes ago, ink said:

In that list I only see one headline that refers to a single casualty (the one about a strike killing the wrong person).

I didn't know that your specific metric was "two casualties or less". But you asked whether it was "imaginable", thereby implying that it wasn't. Here you go, I brought to you with 30 seconds of Googling a case that's even 50% below your threshold. If you want more headlines, google them yourself. I've demonstrated that it it wasn't just imaginable, but that it's real. Not going to waste any more time on this. Go on about it, and prove that it was a strawman argument from the beginning.

[ink]

8 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

I didn't know that your specific metric was "two casualties or less". But you asked whether it was "imaginable", thereby implying that it wasn't. Here you go, I brought to you with 30 seconds of Googling a case that's even 50% below your threshold. If you want more headlines, google them yourself. I've demonstrated that it it wasn't just imaginable, but that it's real. Not going to waste any more time on this. Go on about it, and prove that it was a strawman argument from the beginning.

I suppose I was referring to more comparable circumstances - i.e. wartime strikes, rather than occupation-era targeted assassinations. But I'm also ok with being shown to be wrong on the particulars. I still feel that the general thrust of my point was valid.

[urbanoid]

Arestovych's take on current grain ordeal and possible geopolitical implications.

 

[DB]

1 hour ago, ink said:

I don't understand your comment. How is Ireland relevant? Do you think that by pointing out the complexity of the situation in Ukraine I was trying to justify the Russian invasion? Sorry, I just don't get it.

Ireland left the UK as a negotiated settlement agreed by both sides. The analogy is that a justification by the UK for "reuniting" on the grounds that the Irish are just more British people is the equivalent of Russians claiming that Ukrainians are just Russians. And the absurdity is that tracing some lineage back to the 17th Century can justify the claim that they're "just Russians". Of course, if the Aunt in question arrived in the Soviet era (or her ancestors did), then that can arguably be called Russification, which is just Settlement, and an equally bogus claim for a war.

So, what were we arguing about anyway, given that we're on the same side regarding the legitimacy of Russia's invasion excuses?

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Is Storm Shadow that hard to detect/shoot down or is Russian AD not as good as they say? A major naval base with substandard AD would be strange. 

We don’t have enough info to say. I suspect these were stormshadows but likely not acting alone - there were probably decoys (MALD) and UAVs, as well as the fact Ukraine has had some success engaging S300/400 batteries on the peninsula recently which likely has thinned out defenses. Detecting low level cruise missiles was never easy.

[ink]

41 minutes ago, DB said:

 

So, what were we arguing about anyway, given that we're on the same side regarding the legitimacy of Russia's invasion excuses?

Nah, we're just talking at cross-purposes by the sounds of it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Ssnake said:

It's called "sarcasm", by applying standard Russian justifications to the British/Irish situation for absurdity.

I believe the old English word you are reaching for is 'stoopid'.

In more peak stoopid, Nazis and paedophiles can get their groove on.

 

 

[DB]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

As far as i remember, UK is allready having part of Ireland under occupation, and found some difficulty holding this limited part in not so distant past.

So when, in response to what we have called terrorism in Northern Ireland, did we use that as a pretext to invade Ireland?

And if you want to use NI as a counter example, then you'd have to acknowledge that the provision of Russian equipment, channelled through client states like Libya, is a perfect counter to the perpetual whining about "NATO" supporting Ukraine. Make up your mind what set of mutually inconsistent bullshit you're going to peddle in one breath, could you?

[Yama]

4 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Is Storm Shadow that hard to detect/shoot down or is Russian AD not as good as they say? A major naval base with substandard AD would be strange. 

I saw one comment on pro-Russian channel that they are hard to shoot down, as they fly low and unpredictably change their altitude, speed and direction. I doubt that SS is very stealthy, detection distance may be bit lower for surveillance radars, but I think that local systems see it just fine if it just flies to their view.

I don't know how through Russian AEW coverage is, but I doubt it is 24/7, as they don't have all that many A-50's.

[Josh]

I suspect the problem with hunting Stormshadow is mostly low altitude flight, perhaps with some random maneuvering in the terminal phase. Having a low RCS doesn't exclude detection at very short ranges, and just flying low would probably allow SS to get close enough to defenders that most RCS reduction efforts were no longer effective (that game is generally done at 20 miles/35km, which is about where one could expect the horizon in flat terrain). I suspect a high priority for the Ukrainian attacks on S300/400 units recently are the mast mounted radars that would be a lot more effective at long ranged detection. I don't think Russia keeps an A-50 orbit near the black sea (I believe it stays on the Moscow axis) so early detection is probably limited to the ground radars with the best line of sight (mast mounted or geographically elevated).

[txtree99]

Key Takeaways:

Ukraine’s liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut may have degraded the Russian defense in the area south of Bakhmut and could have rendered combat ineffective as many as three Russian brigades according to Ukrainian military officials.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may have resulted in the particularly severe degradation of critical elements of the Russian elastic defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Recent Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut may correspond with the similar degradation of defending Russian units in the area.

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/136 drone and cruise missile strikes on coastal and rear areas of Ukraine on the night of September 17-18.

An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly responsible for disseminating pro-war propaganda and false information about Ukraine to prominent figures in the Russian information space.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia and advanced in some areas on September 18.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front and advanced in western Zaporizhia on September 18.

Some Russian sources claimed that former Wagner Group personnel are working closely with Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) in order to return fighting in 

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18-2023

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, DB said:

So when, in response to what we have called terrorism in Northern Ireland, did we use that as a pretext to invade Ireland?

You mean Northern Ireland is not enough Ireland?

[Roman Alymov]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Maybe that's the truth. I'm not in a position to judge. But, personally, I find the narrative that the people of Donetsk and Lugansk rose up spontaneously to liberate themselves from Ukrainian rule and were subsequently ignored by the central Russian government during the eight years from 2014 to 2022 less than convincing. 

No, people of Kharkov, Odessa, Donetsk, Lugansk, Dnepropetrovsk etc. rose up spontaneously  -and where igmored by Russian Gov. In Kharkov. Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk uprising was crushed (remember all this rethoric about "bussed from Russia" and "Russians fron transnistria" here by usual suspects?) but while pro-Ukrainians were busy with this major centres (as we now know, by "diapearing" local pro-Russian activists and jailing others - secondary centres in Donetsk and Lugansk gained some strength and managed to prolong defence to the point when it became impossible for Russian Gov to pretend nothing happens if they are after all crashed, so some (very limited) help was provided, in expectation that some agreement will be reached between Russian elite and Ukrainian oligarchs (as it was repeatedly done before). But oligarchs of Ukraine lost their power to US Embassy, and agreement became impossible.

[Roman Alymov]

Back to Poland vs. grain from Ukraine, from pro-Ukrainians ( https://t.me/rezident_ua/19732 )

"Polish media have received unofficial results of an inspection that the Supreme Control Chamber conducted regarding grain imports from Ukraine.

The information may be very unpleasant for the local Ministry of Agriculture, since the measures were taken late and not very effective.

In total, over the past year, the supply of Ukrainian wheat to Poland increased by more than 16,000%, corn - by almost 30,000%.

But the minister asked the EU to protect the Polish market only in December. Until that moment, the agency had not informed anyone about the situation, except for expert groups that did not have the authority to make decisions.

Grain volumes in Polish warehouses have increased significantly. Their total area is about 24.5 million. If in the middle of 2021 the reserves amounted to 3.8 million tons, then a year later - 7 million, and in June of this year - almost 10 million tons. The inspectors note that the grain crisis was aggravated by the erroneous public statement of the then Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, which was not supported by any analytics, who urged not to sell grain because it would not become cheaper.

This could eventually lead to the need to pay financial assistance to 50 thousand agricultural producers.

The Chamber considers the failure to conduct a risk analysis within the required time frame to be the reason for the belated, expensive, but ineffective actions of the Ministry: the Minister did not have data that would prevent market failures related to the war in Ukraine and an increase in imports. There is no documentation that would confirm that the authorized representative appointed by the Minister for the development of cooperation with Ukraine fulfilled his tasks.

There are also complaints about the quality of imported products: out of 73 grain samples imported from Ukraine, salmonella was found in 17, pesticides in 17 more, GMOs in 11, myotoxins in 6. Others also contained mercury, cadmium, lead and iron. From January to May 2023, harmful factors were detected in 35% of samples.

Thus, inefficient public administration and the government's untimely reaction are largely responsible for the problems that have arisen in the Polish market. But now it is very convenient for Warsaw to blame Kiev and Brussels for everything before the elections."

[JWB]

 

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

You mean Northern Ireland is not enough Ireland?

NI aka Ulster was never a part of the Irish Free State in the first place as the population decided to remain a part of the United Kingdom when self rule/independence was offered. 

[Roman Alymov]

Previously unknown "improved Lancet" vs. MiG-29 at Krivoy Rog airfield, at least 100 km distance. Note old tyres used for constructing barriers, now we know where VKS got idea from 

https://t.me/Dnepro_Rub/1226

P.S. Lancet approach - from North, from territory controlled by pro-Ukrainians https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/29344

Edited September 19 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Markus Becker said:

NI aka Ulster was never a part of the Irish Free State in the first place as the population decided to remain a part of the United Kingdom when self rule/independence was offered. 

You mean, it was colonised long ago  

Lancewt vs. field gun (described as M777, but as for me it is not), Kherson region. Main charge detonated by tree branches on approach, but cumulative jet ignited everything around (it is peak of dry season bow, as summer foliage overdryed by long summer heat) https://t.me/vysokygovorit/12850