Kiev Is Burning

[JWB]

8 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You're thinking that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine and imposes a puppet government in Kyiv that the Ukrainian Air Force will buy F-35's and nuclear powerplants from France?

That is not what Roman was talking about.

[KV7]

5 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

No indication that Ukraine is about to enlist women soldiers via mobilization. There are still decent number of men left to mobilize, but doing so will only yield very limited gains because Ukraine and the West doesn’t have the necessary capacity to give the training they need. 
 

Women who are in the front lines or rear are there by choice. I don’t expect there to be significant numbers of them though

I find it a little hard to believe that training could be a bottleneck. Surely acceptable instruction can be given by any reasonably intelligent and experienced soldier, at least such that the return on conscription and training of this sort is substantially higher than what such a soldier could achieve by being at the front. 

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

No indication that Ukraine is about to enlist women soldiers via mobilization.

Actually all this hype about mobilization of women in Ukraine is based on new Rada ruling that from October, 1 2023 female doctors, nerces, pharmacy specialists etc. are to be registered for military enlistment.

[Roman Alymov]

WWII-style video from Reni port showing searchlight-illuminated Geran' diving on its target amid small arms tracers

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97932

Edited September 19 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

On 9/7/2023 at 1:21 AM, Roman Alymov said:

Shrapnel damage as result of what is believed to be HARM missile launched by UkrAF plane that mailfunctioned and crashed on busy street market in Konstantinovka (Ukr-occupied part of DNR) where 17 locals were killed and 32 injured

https://t.me/milinfolive/106092

More on this, plus Challenger location 

 

Unusually, now even NYT article is saying it was "Ukrainian missile" but is blaming it on BUK, while taking care not to show any fragments 

Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy - The New York Times (nytimes.com) ( https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html )

Actually pro-Russians are saying it was HARM missile, and the purpose of the article is twofold:

1) Prevent any potential bad publicity following US missile misfunction with massive human losses

2) Remind President Zelensky (who recently attempred to blackmail Wewst, including threats to weaponize Ukrainian refugees in Europe) that he is totally dependent on Western (read:US) support.

P.S. Another, but somewhat similar, take from https://t.me/historiographe/9051

"The famous Ukrainian comedian Zelensky came to the metropolis, that is, to the USA, with a farewell tour.

The United States has prepared well for his meeting:

1. The State Department stated that the ban on the supply of Ukrainian grain is an internal matter of Europe.

2. The New York Times rolled out an article saying that the Ukrainians fired at the market in Konstantinovka themselves.

The article is beautiful. There are several important theses in it:
- the strike on the market was inflicted by a Ukrainian missile of the Buk air defense system,
- from Konstantinovka itself, the AFU are firing artillery at Russian positions,
- the Ukrainian command tried to interfere with the NYT investigation.

Considering that the NYT is newspaper closely associated with the Democrats and the Biden administration, we have bad news for the famous Ukrainian comedian."

 

Edited September 19 by Roman Alymov

[Ssnake]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

There are still decent number of men left to mobilize, but doing so will only yield very limited gains because Ukraine and the West doesn’t have the necessary capacity to give the training they need.

"They can't learn fast enough to operate the PzH 2000!"

"Teaching them the Leopard MBT will take too long, it's a highly complex system!"

"They will never learn to operate the F-16!"

"You can't just put Western cruise missiles under the wings of a Soviet era fighter!"

 

If there's a repeating theme, it's that the Ukrainians can't do it, can't do it quickly enough, can't do it well enough. And yet, so far, they always seem to do it. While they might not finish top of the class in a test, they seem to do good enough in battle to seriously attrit the Russian Army. The Ukrainians may actually win the tank and artillery battle if they can maintain the current pressure.

Armies in industrial style wars have always found ways to provide training. The training regime will be somewhat reduced, but the biggest challenge so far seems to educate the "experts" in the west about what's actually possible. We may not be in an open war against Russia, but we should consider the conflict as one where we have the chance to eliminate the conventional threat that Russia presents to its neighbors and European security in general for at least twenty years, maybe longer.

[Stuart Galbraith]

What he said ☝️

Well I can only repeat what the Estonian PM said the other day. I dont know where he got his information from, but he said that if they started now, the Russians could be back to where they were when the war started, at least in conventional equipment, in 5 years. I dont think thats quite right, but if you look at how many tanks they have lost for example, if they are building 200 a year, then that is going ot take something like 10 years to get back to what they are, assuming of course supply of old T72's is not envisaged as part of the mix, which it presumably they would be. Lets say 7 for sake of argument.

It really isnt a hell of a lot of time to get ready, when you see the relatively lack of interest in Europe in remobilizing our armaments industry. We even seem uninterested in building artillery plants to supply our requirement in shells.

Edited September 19 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

Semi-official (published by official war reporter) description of situation in and around Klescheevka https://t.me/sashakots/42257

"About Kleshcheyevka from a direct participant

"A small part <of the village> on the side of Bakhmut is still ours. Several houses in the north and northeast. The main battle is now to the east (pro-Ukrainians has reached railway line and are diggin in, we are storming) and to the northwest (we are digging in, they are storming).

Artillery works for them very accurately and competently. Cassettes. Shells are not saved at all. Previously, they stopped working when we approached their positions at 150 meters. Now they throw it on us, even when we are at 50 <meters distance>.

There is no big offensive with heavy equipment. They work in small assault groups plus a strong reinforcement/dug in group. During the night, they are digging in in such a way that you are surprised - from scratch a full-fledged covered dugout or shelter under the foundation of the house.

There are not enough copters for the carousel, spare batteries <lacking> - especially at night, a noticeable part of the <enemy> movements and work takes place without our supervision. If we take away a position from them, they are immediately leveled with the ground, sometimes with their own. And <then> they come in again.

They have the advantage in artillery, observation and correction from the air. Well, and the prevailing hills ones, the wavy terrain very crappy for us. Plus, EW is still stronger for them, although we also have fun moments for them in this regard."

[urbanoid]

50 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Semi-official (published by official war reporter) description of situation in and around Klescheevka https://t.me/sashakots/42257

"About Kleshcheyevka from a direct participant

"A small part <of the village> on the side of Bakhmut is still ours. Several houses in the north and northeast. The main battle is now to the east (pro-Ukrainians has reached railway line and are diggin in, we are storming) and to the northwest (we are digging in, they are storming).

Artillery works for them very accurately and competently. Cassettes. Shells are not saved at all. Previously, they stopped working when we approached their positions at 150 meters. Now they throw it on us, even when we are at 50 <meters distance>.

There is no big offensive with heavy equipment. They work in small assault groups plus a strong reinforcement/dug in group. During the night, they are digging in in such a way that you are surprised - from scratch a full-fledged covered dugout or shelter under the foundation of the house.

There are not enough copters for the carousel, spare batteries <lacking> - especially at night, a noticeable part of the <enemy> movements and work takes place without our supervision. If we take away a position from them, they are immediately leveled with the ground, sometimes with their own. And <then> they come in again.

They have the advantage in artillery, observation and correction from the air. Well, and the prevailing hills ones, the wavy terrain very crappy for us. Plus, EW is still stronger for them, although we also have fun moments for them in this regard."

They should ask Glenn who will explain to them that it's impossible for Ukraine to have advantage in artillery, because there is a gorillion of artillery pieces in Russia.

[Stuart Galbraith]

This reinforces that Ive long suggested appears to be the case, that its one thing to have superiority in guns, its quite another to have the ammunition to hand to actually make use of them.

[Roman Alymov]

29 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

They should ask Glenn who will explain to them that it's impossible for Ukraine to have advantage in artillery, because there is a gorillion of artillery pieces in Russia.

Have to point out that:

1) It is perception by infantry on the ground - and it is always biased for obvious reason, as even single enemy shell exploding nearby is too much;

2) It is the very focal point of pro-Ukrainian efforts on this front - not surprising they have made their best to assemble as much artillery/ammunition there as possible;

3) Price pro-Ukrainias are paying for having this artillery concentration is not clear (on average, Rus MoD is claiming one or two Western SPG or M777 daily in this part of front line - no way to know if it is true or not);

4) And with all this efforts and concentration, pro-Ukrainians a moving at pace that makes Wagner campaign in Bakhmut look like Blitzcreig.

[Markus Becker]

10 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I believe many navies around the world are taking note on how an opponent with a rather small handful of guided weapons can wreck significant havoc on a superior force 

Is Storm Shadow that hard to detect/shoot down or is Russian AD not as good as they say? A major naval base with substandard AD would be strange. 

[Roman Alymov]

Just now, Markus Becker said:

Is Storm Shadow that hard to detect/shoot down or is Russian AD not as good as they say? A major naval base with substandard AD would be strange. 

No AD coud shoot down 100% of incoming targets in 100% cases. Note no more strikes on Chongar bridges, despite of pages written about their strategic significance and the fact they are way closer to frontline - seems like after initial attempts (that resulted in couple of hits, but no complete destruction) NATO decided it is too costly. 

[ink]

All indications about the strike on the dry dock suggest it was a complex and highly coordinated operation. Throw in a bit of complacency on the part of Russian AD operators and you've got a recipe for missiles getting through. Perhaps not all that surprising for low-observable missiles fired in groups and in combination with diversionary drone strikes to get through to the target.

Not to mention the fact that such coordinated strikes are likely supported by the beat intel NATO can provide.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Is Storm Shadow that hard to detect/shoot down or is Russian AD not as good as they say? A major naval base with substandard AD would be strange. 

What im taking away from it, is that if Russia had managed to shoot any down, they would, as in other occasions, be showing off the pieces to show Western tech is vulnerable to gloriously strong Soviet tech. Which would at least take some of the sting out of two warships being destroyed, at least to Russians.

There was a story that the Ukrainians may have destroyed the air defence system (whatever that was) to enable easier targeting of these ships. It is of course possible. They might then say  'aha, so our air defence system was so good they had to destroy it!' and thats true. Except if it was so good, it would surely have detected and destroyed the weapons that destroyed it...

 

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, ink said:

All indications about the strike on the dry dock

It hardly was "strike on the dry dock", but rater planned to be big attack on naval base in general. It is coincidence only missiles aimed at dry dock area got through - we do not know what were the targets of other missiles that were shot down. 

    By the way another salvo of four StormShadows reportedly shot down today near Melitopol, believed to be targeted at Kerch bridge (at least, bridge was temporary closed by smoke screen at that moment).

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

There was a story that the Ukrainians may have destroyed the air defence system (whatever that was) to enable easier targeting of these ships. It is of course possible. They might then say  'aha, so our air defence system was so good they had to destroy it!' and thats true. Except if it was so good, it would surely have detected and destroyed the weapons that destroyed it...

I have not seen such reports, but if it is true (who knows)  - there is a lot of ways to disable AD system that AD system can do nothing about. Note Sevastopol and Crimea in general are still busy tourist location at the peak of "velvet season", there is no war declared, no patrols, no restricted area (for comparison, in Soviet time ALL Sevastopol was "closed city" with no tourist access except organised bus tours). Plenty of oportunities for potential entruders.

[ink]

One thing I continue to find surprising about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For all the evil it very clearly represents (in my opinion there is no greater crime in the world than waging a war of aggression*), it does throw into stark relief how destructive recent wars have been and how we all turned a blind eye to the suffering they caused.

I mean, can you even imagine a headline in a UK paper saying, "Two civilians killed by US air strikes"? Two dead civilians wouldn't warrant a sentence halfway down an article, let alone a headline. Yet here we have the Guardian reporting just that.

I am, of course, not denying the tragedy of two completely innocent people being killed for no reason.

 

 

* Moreover, I am of the opinion that every subsequent crime that follows from a war of aggression, whether committed directly by the invasion forces or not, is ultimately the doing of the aggressor.

[Markus Becker]

2 minutes ago, ink said:

One thing I continue to find surprising about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For all the evil it very clearly represents (in my opinion there is no greater crime in the world than waging a war of aggression*), it does throw into stark relief how destructive recent wars have been and how we all turned a blind eye to the suffering they caused.

I mean, can you even imagine a headline in a UK paper saying, "Two civilians killed by US air strikes"? Two dead civilians wouldn't warrant a sentence halfway down an article, let alone a headline. Yet here we have the Guardian reporting just that.

I am, of course, not denying the tragedy of two completely innocent people being killed for no reason.

 

 

* Moreover, I am of the opinion that every subsequent crime that follows from a war of aggression, whether committed directly by the invasion forces or not, is ultimately the doing of the aggressor.

 

Yes, drone strike on terrorist gone not according to plan. 

 

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, ink said:

I mean, can you even imagine a headline in a UK paper saying, "Two civilians killed by US air strikes"? Two dead civilians wouldn't warrant a sentence halfway down an article, let alone a headline. Yet here we have the Guardian reporting just that.

More important, it was a strike of from 50 to 100 cruise missiles and Geran' drones, making collateral damage minimal (at least one of two persons killed was working on the warehouse in Lvov region that was hit, so hardly even collateral damage but legitimate military target). Contary to usual Western claims of lack of accuracy....

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 minutes ago, ink said:

One thing I continue to find surprising about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For all the evil it very clearly represents (in my opinion there is no greater crime in the world than waging a war of aggression*), it does throw into stark relief how destructive recent wars have been and how we all turned a blind eye to the suffering they caused.

I mean, can you even imagine a headline in a UK paper saying, "Two civilians killed by US air strikes"? Two dead civilians wouldn't warrant a sentence halfway down an article, let alone a headline. Yet here we have the Guardian reporting just that.

I am, of course, not denying the tragedy of two completely innocent people being killed for no reason.

 

 

* Moreover, I am of the opinion that every subsequent crime that follows from a war of aggression, whether committed directly by the invasion forces or not, is ultimately the doing of the aggressor.

And you are right, and wrong too. Yes, its hypocritical of the Guardian to treat these circumstances differently, I quite agree. But thats not the same as saying they arent right now, because they are.

One can continually invoke Iraq and Afghanistan, and maybe there are something in those arguments flagellating us. But its still a completely different subject. Our doing it first doesnt make it right.

After all, Russia is supposed to be superior to the evil west in all ways. So how is it demonstrating that by doing the same thing?

[DB]

12 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Seems like this reel is not present on YouTube, so here it is with synpopsys in Russian https://by.tsargrad.tv/news/minoborony-rossii-napugalo-vsu-reklamnym-rolikom-kiev-my-vernjom_869678?ysclid=lmpd21k192756046915

"The published video shows footage of trench warfare involving the Russian military in the special operation zone. One of the fighters turns to his comrade-in-arms with a question whether he knows where the "Pechersk Pagorbs* in Kiev" are located.

This is the center, my aunt lives there. Cool neighborhood. Why?

our soldier in the trench asks him a counter question. "I have a dream, I want to buy an apartment there," says a Russian soldier and picks up a machine gun, opening fire in return.

The war will end, we will return Kiev, I will move my family there,

the soldier finishes the thought on the final frames of the video. On the screen saver that appears, cities are listed in large letters: Kiev, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, etc. and the inscription "Choose the city of your dreams". The video ends with the words of the second serviceman:

And I'm going to Odessa, I love the sea."

And so, if a German moved to London in, oh, about 1714, that would justify Germany starting a war to return London to the Greater German Empire this year would it?

 

[ink]

19 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

After all, Russia is supposed to be superior to the evil west in all ways. So how is it demonstrating that by doing the same thing?

Oh, I'm 100% with you on that. That's one of my main arguments for Serbia never joining NATO - i.e. because we should strive to be morally superior.

Also, I find Roman's comment above to be as wide of the mark as is humanly possible. There are, in a sense, no truly legitimate military targets in Ukraine. Just as the same could be said of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.

[ink]

6 minutes ago, DB said:

And so, if a German moved to London in, oh, about 1714, that would justify Germany starting a war to return London to the Greater German Empire this year would it?

 

This binary view of nations and ethnicities is almost as incorrect as Roman's unitary view. The way people became Ukrainians and Russians in mixed regions like Ukraine is complicated and cannot be reduced to a simple understanding of there being two distinct wholes. There's even a mixed Ukrainian-Russian language spoken widely in Ukraine. 

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, ink said:

Also, I find Roman's comment above to be as wide of the mark as is humanly possible. There are, in a sense, no truly legitimate military targets in Ukraine. Just as the same could be said of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.

For years, our Gov was doing nothing about daily shelling of Donetsk and other places in Donbass. Even ignoired direc terror attack on regular city bus in Voronezh..... Only when completely cornered in the end of 2021, they have decided to do something. That is their true guilt.