Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 Azov tank crews award ceremony, note emblem - some things newer change 502th Heavy Tank battalion
Strannik Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Strannik said: Staggering losses in Ukraine: "Of every 100 people mobilized last fall, 10-20 remain, the rest are dead, wounded and incapacitated. This was stated by the head of the Poltava Regional TsK. According to him, Poltava is in last place in the region in terms of recruitment rates - it has fulfilled the General Staff plan by only 13%." Obviously Ukrainian regime is still managing to fill in the gaps with freshly mobilized. For now. And while we don't know the exact loss numbers, what we can infer from the circumstantial evidence like above, leaks of classified reports (174k, was it last year?), general moral change (volunteer lines vs. forced mobi) and population finally starting to ask questions much more often that the at the current level of these losses the cracks will widen and it's only matter of time when the whole thing will collapse. Not the most effective way to win the war, but the most durable way to achieve post war stability - see historical example of their dreamy cosplay inspiration. Edited September 16, 2023 by Strannik
txtree99 Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka in the Bakhmut area on September 14 and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 15. Russian State Duma Deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev complained about lying within the Russian military and highlighted the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses against Russian helicopters. Ukrainian forces conducted naval drone strikes on Russian ships in the Black Sea on September 14. Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/-136 drone strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas on September 15. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov explicitly stated that mobilized personnel will only demobilize at the end of Russia’s “special military operation.” The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to assume control over the Wagner Group’s operations in North Africa and may have assigned former commander of the Aerospace Forces (VKS) Sergei Surovikin to this task. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 15. Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to strengthen ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied southern Ukraine to Russia and occupied Crimea. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-15-2023
txtree99 Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 https://x.com/natashabertrand/status/1702724283754000634?s=61&t=IZXtqtU-ivwfbke5UMfWTA The US last month provided Ukraine with an “industrial-sized 3D printer” that it can use to print spare parts for equipment that breaks down or needs maintenance, and the Ukrainians completed training on it within the last week, per DoD acquisition chief Bill LaPlante
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Strannik said: Obviously Ukrainian regime is still managing to fill in the gaps with freshly mobilized. For now. And while we don't know the exact loss numbers, what we can inferr from the circumstantial evidence like above, leaks of classified reports (174k, was it last year?), general moral change (volunteer lines vs. forced mobi) and population finally starting to ask questions much more often that the at the current level of these losses the cracks will widen and it's only matter of time when the whole thing will collapse. That is dangerous illusion: Population will not "start asking questions" since they are living in information isolation, TV and regulart media are totally controlled and is communicating endless stream of "Ukraine stronk" messages (see what Stuart if providing here and multipy it by wartime ratio), presence of "unpatriotic" channels in TG subscription list in one's smartphone may result in meeting with SBU, West will support any mobilization measures - even if it will take machineguns to press unlucky recruits into trenches. Thise who are now hiding in Europoe will be returned back, in prison vans if needed. So they still have at least about 10 mln of warm bodies to replenish losses - about 10 times the current size of UkrArmy.
Strannik Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: That is dangerous illusion: Population will not "start asking questions" since they are living in information isolation, TV and regulart media are totally controlled and is communicating endless stream of "Ukraine stronk" messages (see what Stuart if providing here and multipy it by wartime ratio), presence of "unpatriotic" channels in TG subscription list in one's smartphone may result in meeting with SBU, West will support any mobilization measures - even if it will take machineguns to press unlucky recruits into trenches. Thise who are now hiding in Europoe will be returned back, in prison vans if needed. So they still have at least about 10 mln of warm bodies to replenish losses - about 10 times the current size of UkrArmy. But they already do, especially the relatives of the "MIA". And when it will get to the point of forcibly conscripting the expelled (for this purpose) EU refugees/runaways you'll know the end is near.
Strannik Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) Hm... apparently the Ukes sacrificed 14 drone boats for the opportunity to prove they can sneak out a ship out of Odessa into Romania via coastal waters. Useless for grain transport, but perhaps a rehearsal to see if the can sneak something in next time? Just seems chancy and suboptimal. Edited September 16, 2023 by Strannik
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, Strannik said: But they already do, especially the relatives of the "MIA". And when it will get to the point of forcibly conscripting the expelled (for this purpose) EU refugees/runaways you'll know the end is near. Individual complains, and even by small groups, will change nothing. Even if we imagine impossible - like mass protests on the streets - they will be declared "inspired by Putin and staged by Russian agents", shot at and disperced, with full support of West. There is no escape for citizens of Ukraine, except may be sneaking to 3rd world countries outside of NATO reach. But taking into account most of them will hardly be able to self-support there, sooner of later they will have to go to countries where they are not foreigners - like Russia, Belorussia or (to some extent) Kazakhstan.
Strannik Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: Individual complains, and even by small groups, will change nothing. Even if we imagine impossible - like mass protests on the streets - they will be declared "inspired by Putin and staged by Russian agents", shot at and disperced, with full support of West. There is no escape for citizens of Ukraine, except may be sneaking to 3rd world countries outside of NATO reach. But taking into account most of them will hardly be able to self-support there, sooner of later they will have to go to countries where they are not foreigners - like Russia, Belorussia or (to some extent) Kazakhstan. Roman I have no illusions that a small amount of individual protests in UA will achieve much. But I expect they will grow significantly- look we didn't have these conscription hunting videos 8 month ago, certainly not to the extent we have them now. Yes, total propaganda is very effective, but sustained reality coupled with elimination of the most hideous ones will bring fruits. Edited September 16, 2023 by Strannik
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 "Two British volunteer fighters in Ukraine may have been murdered by fellow 'foreign legion' fighters following 'disputes over money and petty arguments' Daniel Burke, 36, is feared to have been killed by fellow volunteer fighters In separate case, Jordan Chadwick feared to have been killed in petty argument By RACHAEL BUNYAN PUBLISHED: 11:17 BST, 15 September 2023 | UPDATED: 12:02 BST, 15 September 2023 Two British volunteer fighters who fought in Ukraine are feared to have been murdered by their fellow foreign legion comrades following alleged disputes over money and petty arguments, it has emerged. Daniel Burke, a former paratrooper who went to fight in Ukraine as a volunteer last year, vanished from his flat in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia on August 11 and hasn't been seen since. There are now fears that the 36-year-old could have been killed not by Russian soldiers, but by his fellow foreign legion fighters because of reported disputes and jealousy over the amount of money he was receiving in donations. As Ukrainian police comb the fields of Komyshuvakha village on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia for any sign of Burke's body, cops further east are investigating the death of former British soldier Jordan Chadwick, 31, near Bakhmut. Chadwick, a former Scots Guard from Burnley, Lancashire, who also volunteered to fight for Ukraine, was found dead in a body of water with his hands tied behind his back in June. A source told the Daily Telegraph that Chadwick had been shot during a petty argument that got out of hand, raising further mystery surrounding his death." https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12521985/british-soldiers-ukraine-murdered-foreign-legion.html Sometimes luxury war with local girls and nightclubs is turning deadly....
BansheeOne Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 49 minutes ago, Strannik said: Hm... apparently the Ukes sacrificed 14 drone boats for the opportunity to prove they can sneak out a ship out of Odessa into Romania via coastal waters. Useless for grain transport, but perhaps a rehearsal to see if the can sneak something in next time? Just seems chancy and suboptimal. Hardly a rehearsal when that has been going on for weeks now. This was the fifth ship leaving Odessa by that route since Joseph Schulte on 17 August. Even before that, at least six made it in the other way, and two more are currently headed there. Quote NATO Planes Watched As Three Civilian Ships Ran Russia’s Naval Blockade Of Ukraine David Axe Forbes Staff Jul 31, 2023,05:55pm EDT A trio of civilian cargo ships—one each from Israel and Greece plus one with Turkish-Georgian registration—ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea on Sunday and anchored at one of Ukraine’s grain ports on the Danube Delta. Twenty-two days after Moscow canceled a deal with Kyiv—which had allowed Ukraine safely to export tens of millions of tons of grain—and then threatened to halt maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports, the world has called the Russians’ bluff. “Reports of three civilian ships sailing to Ukraine unhindered may suggest that Russia is either unwilling or unable to enforce such searches at this time,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted. As pointed out by Markus Jonsson, a flock of NATO aircraft carefully monitored the ships as they sailed toward Izmail, a small Ukrainian port just across from Romania on the Danube River. The vessels presumably will load grain in Izmail then sail back into the Black Sea and onward to foreign ports. The Israeli vessel with the ship-tracking handle Ams1, as well as the Greek vessel with the handle Sahin 2, sailed north from the Bosporus Strait, while the Turkish-Georgian Yilmaz Kaptan sailed west from northern Turkey. Overhead, no fewer than four NATO warplanes patrolled: a U.S. Navy P-8 patrol plane, a U.S. Army Challenger with a surface-scanning radar, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 drone and an E-3 early-warning plane from NATO. None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including Italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania. The three cargo ships made no effort to obscure their intentions. They all switched on their radio transponders, making their location and course visible to anyone with access to the internet and ship-tracking websites. [...] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/31/nato-planes-watched-as-three-civilian-ships-ran-russias-naval-blockade-of-ukraine/?sh=2b47b8511b72 Quote Two more ships leave Ukraine Black Sea port under temporary corridor September 1, 2023 at 7:41 pm Two cargo vessels have left a port near Odessa, Ukraine’s deputy Prime Minister said on Friday – the third and fourth to transit from deep-water Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea since Russia withdrew from a safe-passage deal for grain ships, Reuters reports. Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Liberia-flagged “Anna-Theresa” and Marshall Islands-flagged “Ocean Courtesy” bulk carriers had left the port of Pivdennyi through a temporary corridor for civilian vessels. Russia has blockaded Ukrainian ports since it invaded its neighbour in February 2022, and threatened to treat all vessels as potential military targets after pulling out of the UN-backed Ukrainian grain deal in July. In response, Ukraine announced a “humanitarian corridor” hugging the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria. Two vessels stuck in Ukrainian ports during the invasion have, thus far, been able to use it to leave. Kubrakov’s Ministry, responsible for Ukraine’s infrastructure, said in a Facebook post that the “Anna-Theresa” had been in port since 22 February, 2022, and the “Ocean Courtesy” from 16 February of the same year. LSEG interactive map data showed the two vessels more than 10 km (6 miles) from the shore on Friday, under way using their engines and heading south-east. The “Anna-Theresa” and “Ocean Courtesy” were, respectively, carrying 56,000 metric tons of pig iron and 172,000 tons of iron ore concentrate, Kubrakov wrote on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. [...] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230901-two-more-ships-leave-ukraine-black-sea-port-under-temporary-corridor/ Quote Two ships headed to Ukraine's Black Sea ports to load grain Reuters September 16, 2023 4:36 PM GMT+2 Updated an hour ago KYIV, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Two cargo vessels were headed to Ukrainian ports on Saturday, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov told Reuters, becoming first ships to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets. Ukraine last month announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release ships trapped in its ports since the start of the war in February 2022 and to circumvent a de facto blockade after Russia abandoned a deal to let Kyiv export grain. Five vessels have so far left the port of Odesa, using the corridor which hugs the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria. Ukraine, a leading global food producer and exporter, also wants to use the corridor for its food exports. The bulk carriers "Resilient Africa" and "Aroyat" were making their way through the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports to load almost 20,000 tons of wheat for Africa and Asia, Kubrakov said. Shipping data showed both vessels on routes in the northern Black Sea. [...] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-ships-headed-ukraines-black-sea-ports-load-grain-official-2023-09-16/
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, Strannik said: Roman I have no illusions that a small amount of individual protests in UA will achieve much. But I expect they will grow significantly- look we didn't have these conscription hunting videos 8 month ago, certainly not to the extent we have them now. Yes, total propaganda is very effective, but sustained reality coupled with elimination of the most hideous ones will bring fruits. Yes they will, may be at some point it will take foreign troops (from Poland, for example) to collect new recruits for frontline meatgrinder. May be dropping quality will to some extent reduce ability of Ukr Army to fight - but they have allready developed the tactics that will work with ANY quality of footsoldiers, even if it will be just females and teenagers. It is artillery war, and it takes the same number of shells to destoy trench, not dependent if it is manned by SOF males or former housewifes. The aim of NATO is to kill as many Russians as possible (even if this Russians believe they are "Ukrainians") before major conflict against China.
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 MTLBs with improvised turrets (including one with naval guns) https://t.me/sashakots/42231
Strannik Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, BansheeOne said: Hardly a rehearsal when that has been going on for weeks now. This was the fifth ship leaving Odessa by that route since Joseph Schulte on 17 August. Even before that, at least six made it in the other way... Are you saying the drone boat attack timing was just a coincidence?
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 Back to topic of possible population discontent about mobilization in Ukraine having some effect on general situation: Here is example of "military comissars" in Poltava region attempting to mobilize two guys who turned out to be sort of gangsters. Nothing happened, they have just pointed AK on unlucky comissars and drove away. Mobilization is only problem for people without money or power https://t.me/stepnoy_veter/2551
crazyinsane105 Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said: "Two British volunteer fighters in Ukraine may have been murdered by fellow 'foreign legion' fighters following 'disputes over money and petty arguments' Daniel Burke, 36, is feared to have been killed by fellow volunteer fighters In separate case, Jordan Chadwick feared to have been killed in petty argument By RACHAEL BUNYAN PUBLISHED: 11:17 BST, 15 September 2023 | UPDATED: 12:02 BST, 15 September 2023 Two British volunteer fighters who fought in Ukraine are feared to have been murdered by their fellow foreign legion comrades following alleged disputes over money and petty arguments, it has emerged. Daniel Burke, a former paratrooper who went to fight in Ukraine as a volunteer last year, vanished from his flat in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia on August 11 and hasn't been seen since. There are now fears that the 36-year-old could have been killed not by Russian soldiers, but by his fellow foreign legion fighters because of reported disputes and jealousy over the amount of money he was receiving in donations. As Ukrainian police comb the fields of Komyshuvakha village on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia for any sign of Burke's body, cops further east are investigating the death of former British soldier Jordan Chadwick, 31, near Bakhmut. Chadwick, a former Scots Guard from Burnley, Lancashire, who also volunteered to fight for Ukraine, was found dead in a body of water with his hands tied behind his back in June. A source told the Daily Telegraph that Chadwick had been shot during a petty argument that got out of hand, raising further mystery surrounding his death." https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12521985/british-soldiers-ukraine-murdered-foreign-legion.html Sometimes luxury war with local girls and nightclubs is turning deadly.... To be fair, you’re in an environment where you have a lot of guys with guns, little oversight at times, and extended combat. These situations were common even in DNR and LNR prior to 2022. I can only imagine how the disputes are between various factions within Russian military and allied militias are right now. Even Iraq war veterans I spoke with said half the time they hated specific guys from other units more than the enemy at times, but it never devolved into a point of bloodshed. Given how bad things are in Ukraine, I’m quite surprised this hasn’t been happening more.
crazyinsane105 Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: Back to topic of possible population discontent about mobilization in Ukraine having some effect on general situation: Here is example of "military comissars" in Poltava region attempting to mobilize two guys who turned out to be sort of gangsters. Nothing happened, they have just pointed AK on unlucky comissars and drove away. Mobilization is only problem for people without money or power https://t.me/stepnoy_veter/2551 How will the general discontent in Russia be if there is general mobilization similar to what is happening in Ukraine? I’m assuming it will be far worse given that Putin still isn’t too excited for one.
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 1 minute ago, crazyinsane105 said: To be fair, you’re in an environment where you have a lot of guys with guns, little oversight at times, and extended combat. These situations were common even in DNR and LNR prior to 2022. I can only imagine how the disputes are between various factions within Russian military and allied militias are right now. Not sure about "common" but i know such cases - for example, my friend's buddy, former rock musician from Odessa who became "best sniper of Novorossia" (despite of being badly shortsighted) , was killed not by enemy in combat, but by another pro-Russian militia member somewhere deep in rear area, for unclear reasons. Another recent example is Gennady Dubovoy, fighter-reporter famous for his videos from 2014-2015 (posted here repeatedly), was hit by car in central Donetsk when he went to buy flowers for his wife. The driver who hit him was, reportedly, commander of "commendant regiment" of Donetsk, known for risky driving.....
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said: How will the general discontent in Russia be if there is general mobilization similar to what is happening in Ukraine? I’m assuming it will be far worse given that Putin still isn’t too excited for one. Actually "collective Putin" is "between two fires" -as lack of mobilization is also creating discontent, probably far greater than one about mobilization. Because of it, rulling class of Russia is slowly drifting towards the idea mobilization will be needed sooner or later.
BansheeOne Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 50 minutes ago, Strannik said: Are you saying the drone boat attack timing was just a coincidence? No, I'm saying it wasn't a rehearsal, but well-established procedure. 😋
mkenny Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 Something to think about as you gleefully watch film of soldiers (from the side you hate) getting blown up
Roman Alymov Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, mkenny said: Something to think about as you gleefully watch film of soldiers (from the side you hate) getting blown up Is it the same video as here?
Strannik Posted September 16, 2023 Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, BansheeOne said: No, I'm saying it wasn't a rehearsal, but well-established procedure. 😋 Procedure as far as transit. Then an attack is a coincidence since nothing to distract from, right?
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