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Kiev Is Burning


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36 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The problem still comes down the problem that Ukraine is far larger than the Russian Army can occupy. Ok, so they might be able to advance, but with the Ukrainians attacking their supply lines, they will sooner or later end up beyond their supply heads, and subject to small counter attacks. The Ukrainians still have plenty of T64's and T72's on hand, even as their artillery supply dries up. The broken tanks they can dig in as pillboxes. The Russians ultimately will go nowhere. The best they can hope for is the war dragging on for decades with the sanctions never ending. Hardly to their advantage.

Where have you seen these plenty of T-64s? You don't get to see many in the last few months because quite a large number has been lost (>400 destroyed according to lost armour since 2014) and factories carrying out repairs/overhauls/upgrades are not really functioning. Perhaps in the future some can be fixed in Poland and Czech Republic -agreements have been signed- but I don't see these large numbers. The same goes with BTRs and BMPs. Nowadays you see much more Western equipment, from MRAPs to assault rifles.

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Posted Images

We saw some the other day, that were knocked out alongside the Challenger 2. They are very clearly still there in there in the front line, despite all the odds. No, fair one, I should qualify lots for 'Im certainly seeing them when i look for them'. Which to me suggests they are far from trace amounts.

BMP's, the Ukrainians have reportedly issued 5th Brigade with some BMP1's that were reequipped with new turrets. Yes, in the middle of a war, they actually seem capable of upgrading 60 year old afv's for combat. Which is wholly against the narrative that their entire defence industry got levelled by Russian rockets.

And there are still 50 Leopard 1s coming, and what, 100 Abrams? The cupboard for Urkaine is still filling, and that for Russia is what, building 200 tanks a year? They lost more than that in the last 6 months.

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3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Lets look at it like this. How many guys do you know will continue to work at an oil gas refinery, whilst it comes under drone attack? Because I sure as crap wouldnt, no matter how well you paid me.

Personally i do not know single person working on oil refinary, but taking into account Russian oil refineries were allready attacked by drones (first time back in June of 2022, and it was covered here) and are still working - seems like they are not facing workforce shortages. After all, oil refineries, as well as coal mines etc. are always dangerous workplaces and people there got specific work ethics. Even without it, Moscow subway was repeatedly bombed over decades  - and millions of people use it daily.....

9 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And you are quite wrong, they are not hardened. We have had at least storage site blow up in the Uk, which 20 years on we still dont know how it even started.

They are not "hardened", they are just hard, as they are designed to withstand hard conditions. Storage sites are way softer, but they are designed to contain the damage.

11 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You have miles and miles of oil and gas pipelines. Do you honestly think if the Ukrainians got serious about attacking them, that there is anything you could do to stop them? Hardly.

No idea what is "serious" for you - but diversion groups sent by pro-Ukrainians to destroy pipelines are arrested from time to time

 

By the way you may have missed it, but members of another diversion group arrested recently while attempting to cross into Russia with aim to blow Kursk NPP (if word "arrested" is appropriate to refer to capture of survivours of firefight) confessed they were trained by British intelligence, and it was even officially noted by Putin 

https://news.antiwar.com/2023/09/12/putin-accuses-uk-of-being-behind-plot-against-russian-nuclear-plant/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12508487/Putin-warns-Britain-consequences-says-Rishi-Sunak-doesnt-understand-risks-accuses-UK-trying-disrupt-Russian-nuclear-power-plants.html

25 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The truth is, your entire economy is based upon one model, and its potentially very vulnerable. 

Heared that allready- John McCain: "Russia is a 'gas station masquerading as a country", Josep Borrell "Gas station with an atomic bomb" etc. Will see.

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2 hours ago, ink said:

I don't know if there are any examples of the victim country initially receiving support, only for that support to be abruptly withdrawn at some point during the war/conflict/invasion.

Vietnam, Afghanistan...

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31 minutes ago, Perun said:

Vietnam, Afghanistan...

Not sure support was abruptly withdrawnat any point in either case.

The Mujehadeen were receiving US, Saudi and Pakistani support even after the Soviets left and the USSR supplied Vietnam with weapons and training until (and perhaps) during that country's brief war with China - i.e. well after the US had pulled out.

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2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The truth is, your entire economy is based upon one model, and its potentially very vulnerable.  

 

Yep sure is. In fact Sleepy Joe was the first to point out the Russian vulnerability to western sanctions and on March 26 2022  he confidently predicted  (eat your heart out Nostradamus)a catastrophic outcome for the Russian economy 

yRJPNb.png

 

I am sure  Russia will quickly  be reduced to the status of a third world nation as no one can possibly stand up to the might of the west. As Del Boy would say 'this time next year' we will  have finally tamed the bear.

 

PS.

This is a post I knocked up in  late March 2022 and unbelievably I found it on a hidden window on my computer. I must have forgot to click the upload button. Never mind I am sure it turned out exactly as predicted. Can anyone confirm how badly the Russian economy was hit and how long ago they ran out of men, tanks, missiles and shovels?  I bet we sure taught them there Reds a lesson they will never forget. It must have felt like a ton of BRICs fell upon them!

Edited by mkenny
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23 minutes ago, ink said:

Not sure support was abruptly withdrawnat any point in either case.

The Mujehadeen were receiving US, Saudi and Pakistani support even after the Soviets left and the USSR supplied Vietnam with weapons and training until (and perhaps) during that country's brief war with China - i.e. well after the US had pulled out.

 He means South Vietnam.

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3 minutes ago, seahawk said:

 He means South Vietnam.

Doesn't fit my original criteria since South Vietnam was not a minor power being invaded by a major one.

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut on September 14.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air defense system near occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea, on September 14, suggesting that there may be systemic tactical failures with Russian air defense systems in occupied Crimea.

Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/136 drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure on September 14.

The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine.

Some Russian sources suggested that ongoing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Wagner Group are diminishing Wagner’s ability to operate across the African theater.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 14.

Ukrainian forces also advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

The Kremlin is reportedly trying to censor Russian media coverage of a possible second wave of reserve mobilization in order to prevent protests and voter discontent ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential elections.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14-2023

Edited by txtree99
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6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Russia have already lost

It appeared that much back May/June '22. The remainings questions are, how badly will Russia lose, and more importantly, will Ukraine lose too. That's still a possibility.

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Yes, thats perfectly true. Russia could still burn them out so they are beyond rebuilding, much as they have done with the tawdry chunks of Ukrainian territory they have acquired. Oh they flatter themselves they build new residential blocks. But is anyone really going to want to live there when there are no jobs? Probably not. Holiday makers seem to have gone distinctly cool on visiting Crimea, when they figured out it was in Stormshadow range.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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Formal head of Wagner PMC, Evgeny Prigozhin, was added as postscript (numbered 52, after No.51 - Israel Flag)  to "50 Most Influential Jews-2023" list by The Jerusalem Post - https://www.jpost.com/influencers/50jews-23 

Especially fun is last year this list was headed by President Zelensky, who now seems to be not in the list at all.

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1 hour ago, txtree99 said:

Key Takeaways:

Some Russian sources suggested that ongoing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Wagner Group are diminishing Wagner’s ability to operate across the African theater.

Strange how Western experts continue to misunderstand the simple fact that there is no "tensions between the Russian MoD and the Wagner Group"  as in fact real Russian Army, founded by low and mid-ranked officers who have left MoD because of bureaucracy there, but are still strongly connected (and supported) by their friends who are staying in Army. So the correct wording to use in this article would be "ongoing tensions between Russian Army and Russian bureaucracy".

   Spoke with former Wagner fighter last weekend  - man in his early 30th, graduated from Ryazan VDV academy, served in elite GRU brigade before going to Wagner. Was WIA this spring, now recovering and working as instructor. Who is more "Russian Army" - this combat officer, or MoD Shoigu who newer was even conscript soldeir?

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8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

It might have worked. If you read that article I posted, it all came down to 200 Ukrainians (Spartans?) at Hostomel Airport. The Russian plan COULD have worked. If the Ukrainians were incredibly disorganized and didnt want to fight.

If the Ukrainians didn’t want to fight, sure. 
 

But disorganized resistance was still a major factor in hindering Russia. The Russians expected virtually no resistance when driving to Kiev. 

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20 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Strange how Western experts continue to misunderstand the simple fact that there is no "tensions between the Russian MoD and the Wagner Group"  as in fact real Russian Army, founded by low and mid-ranked officers who have left MoD because of bureaucracy there, but are still strongly connected (and supported) by their friends who are staying in Army. So the correct wording to use in this article would be "ongoing tensions between Russian Army and Russian bureaucracy".

   

Yes, but someone owns Wagner and he/they must be a big fish. and if he/they did not die in the plane crash, he/they must have big differences with the Ministry of Defense.Differences that did not disappear with the "air crash"

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4 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Yes, but someone owns Wagner and he/they must be a big fish. and if he/they did not die in the plane crash, he/they must have big differences with the Ministry of Defense.Differences that did not disappear with the "air crash"

Yes there is a struggle between old Kronprinz Shoigu and "new" Kronprinz Kirienko, but it is only adding to hate of grassroot Army to "big bosses" (not only top brass by the way but all "fat cats" and their rich kids/grandkids). Prigozhin was popular spokesman/leader, but not real owner.

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8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I think so too. But ultimately, the only way to win is ot take the offensive. One may critique how well Ukraine is doing that, but a bird in the hand and all that.

Well they can go after the Ukrainian economy. but as we have seen, Ukraine have their own means to target elements of the Russian economy should they choose. We have yet to see cyber attacks seriously enter this war. They do have long range drones. What if they retarget away from regime skyscrapers, and start targeting regime oil and gas facilities?

Honestly, that would risk Western support, especially in the US. Raising the price of oil would inflict economic pain hear and there'd be a backlash.

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34 minutes ago, JWB said:

Problem is that UKR will call all SX00 vehicles as destroyed ”S400 systems”. RUS on other hand wont admit anything S400 related to be destroyed (if they admit, it is some other older system).

 

Puplished satellite pictures itself are too vague. It could be scoopydoo van just by looking those.

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12 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Russia would have an easier time taking Kiev at this point than Odessa. And we all know how bad that was the first time around 

They won't be able to take Odessa without having more effectively neutralized HIMARS and drones, that's for sure.

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8 hours ago, ink said:

ASIDE: I actually think the Russians have given up now on the idea of taking large amounts of territory beyond what they've already occupied. They too must be aware of the near impossibility of that. Instead - and rather more gruesomely - I think their goal now is to cause as much destruction and chaos in Ukraine as possible.

The Russian strategy is as we discussed from April 2022 to today.  They seek to inflict asymmetrical attrition on the Ukrainian army so that it will eventually collapse.   The key to the strategy is the highest possible Ukrainian army losses, the lowest possible Russian losses, and time.

This winter, the Russians will probably resume their strikes on the Ukrainian energy system in hopes that a general collapse of the Ukrainian economy and power grid will accelerate the collapse of the Ukrainian army.  

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