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4 hours ago, Rob Veenendaal said:


Nazis were bad and what we see here is Russia trying to outclass Nazis in evilness.
Don't know what name Russians will end up besides Orc, but it will have the same dirty taste as Nazi for centuries to come.

Not even close mate, not even close

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Two Ukrainian Air Assault Brigades Are Flanking Russia’s Next Strongpoint On The Road To Melitopol

A week after liberating Robotyne, a key strongpoint on the road to Melitopol in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine, Ukrainian brigades are shifting their attention to the next town along the same axis: Novoprokopivka.

But every indication is that the lead brigades for the assault—the 46th Air Mobile and 82nd Air Assault Brigades—aren’t going to try directly assaulting Russian positions in Novoprokopivka, a town with a pre-war population of 800 that sits astride the T0408/0401 road threading south through Tokmak to Melitopol, 50 miles away.

No, the brigades are pivoting east, toward the town of Verbove. Their goal, apparently, is to liberate Verbove in order to flank Novoprokopivka.

It’s a sound strategy. After all, it’s worked before for the Ukrainians in several key engagements since they launched a sweeping counteroffensive starting in early June.

The month-long battle for Robotyne was a turning point in the Ukrainian counteroffensive. In slowly grinding through Russian minefields and trenches around the town, Ukrainian brigades eroded the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army and other Russian formations, destroying a Russian vehicle for every Ukrainian vehicle the Russians destroyed.

This one-to-one ratio in heavy equipment losses defies history. Traditionally, an attacking army must mass three times as many troops as a defending army in order to have any chance of success—and should expect to suffer three times as many casualties as the defender, even in victory.

Ukraine’s growing advantage in frontline artillery—hundreds of Western-made howitzers and rocket-launchers firing cluster shells and guided munitions—helps to explain the overall even losses. Critically, Ukrainian gunners have been knocking out three or four Russian howitzers and launchers for every one Ukrainian howitzer or launcher Russian gunners knock out.

When battered Russian regiments fled Robotyne on Aug. 23 and the Ukrainian army’s 47th Mechanized Brigade hoisted the Ukrainian flag over the town’s ruins, it was obvious what would happen next. The next target, Novoprokopivka, is visible from the high ground in Robotyne, a mile away.

But how the Ukrainians are moving on Novoprokopivka speaks to their growing battlefield experience, 19 months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. Borrowing a plan from the Ukrainian marine corps—which liberated the town of Urozhaine, 60 miles east of Robotyne, by flanking it and starving its Russian garrison—the Ukrainian air-assault forces 46th and 82nd Brigades turned east instead of rolling south.

The Russian garrison in Verbove—a motor-rifle regiment, a special forces brigade and a trio of reserve battalions—is much smaller than is the seven-regiment Russian garrison in Novoprokopivka.

The Russians could shift forces to Verbove in order to try blocking the 46th and 82nd Brigades’ assault. They also could assign to Verbove elements of the elite 76th Guard Air Assault Division, which the Kremlin apparently is rushing from eastern Ukraine to the south in a desperate bid to stabilize the front line.

But the 76th GAAD is the Kremlin’s last uncommitted division. So if commanders further reinforce Verbove, they must do so at the expense of other strongpoints along the southern front line.

If the Kremlin does the expedient thing and bolsters the Verbove garrison with the elements of the Novoprokopivka garrison, it could create an opportunity for the other Ukrainian brigades in and around Robotyne—including the battle-hardened 47th and 65th Mechanized—to do what the 46th and 82nd Brigades opted not to do: directly assault Novoprokopivka from north to south.

In that sense, the air-assault forces’ effort around Verbove could be the Ukrainians’ main effort in their Melitipol thrust, or it could be a diversion supporting the real main effort farther to the west. It all depends on what the Russians choose to do: sit tight in Novoprokopivka and hope the Verbove line holds, or reinforce Verbove and hope the Novoprokopivka line holds.

It’s an unhappy position for Russian troops to be in: choosing between two bad options that the Ukrainians presented them by virtue of the Ukrainians’ own clever deployments.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/29/two-ukrainian-air-assault-brigades-are-flanking-russias-next-strongpoint-on-the-road-to-melitopol/

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Another advantage of attacking Verbove is that the defensive line more or less angles into the town. So the attacking forces are moving down the trench, rolling it up, using captured Russian earthworks as their starting point. It makes sense to press that way as close to the town as you can get. There is apparently western movement down other defensive positions as well.

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2 hours ago, Josh said:

The US solution would probably be an extended air campaign, if the situation allowed. That is basically how Iraq War Round 1 went down. Modern ISR and PGMs, especially now even artillery PGMs, would enable that kind of effort. But the new dynamic of either side being able to cheaply observe the other, even in a non air superiority situation, has enabled artillery to the point that I think some kind of near perfect local air control, even if momentary, is practically a prerequisite to an offensive against a well dug in peer position.

I posted an article a while ago that thoroughly reviewed the Allied air campaign in the first Gulf War specifically against Iraqi air defense. It was far from perfect, with maybe half of HARM missiles actually destroying intended targets. Serbian IADS was much more resilient. 
 

Russian IADS, while not invincible by any means, would be a consistent enough threat where consistent air superiority over the front simply wouldn’t be guaranteed even to the US. 

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1 hour ago, Perun said:

Two Ukrainian Air Assault Brigades Are Flanking Russia’s Next Strongpoint On The Road To Melitopol

A week after liberating Robotyne, a key strongpoint on the road to Melitopol in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine, Ukrainian brigades are shifting their attention to the next town along the same axis: Novoprokopivka.

But every indication is that the lead brigades for the assault—the 46th Air Mobile and 82nd Air Assault Brigades—aren’t going to try directly assaulting Russian positions in Novoprokopivka, a town with a pre-war population of 800 that sits astride the T0408/0401 road threading south through Tokmak to Melitopol, 50 miles away.

No, the brigades are pivoting east, toward the town of Verbove. Their goal, apparently, is to liberate Verbove in order to flank Novoprokopivka.

It’s a sound strategy. After all, it’s worked before for the Ukrainians in several key engagements since they launched a sweeping counteroffensive starting in early June.

The month-long battle for Robotyne was a turning point in the Ukrainian counteroffensive. In slowly grinding through Russian minefields and trenches around the town, Ukrainian brigades eroded the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army and other Russian formations, destroying a Russian vehicle for every Ukrainian vehicle the Russians destroyed.

This one-to-one ratio in heavy equipment losses defies history. Traditionally, an attacking army must mass three times as many troops as a defending army in order to have any chance of success—and should expect to suffer three times as many casualties as the defender, even in victory.

Ukraine’s growing advantage in frontline artillery—hundreds of Western-made howitzers and rocket-launchers firing cluster shells and guided munitions—helps to explain the overall even losses. Critically, Ukrainian gunners have been knocking out three or four Russian howitzers and launchers for every one Ukrainian howitzer or launcher Russian gunners knock out.

When battered Russian regiments fled Robotyne on Aug. 23 and the Ukrainian army’s 47th Mechanized Brigade hoisted the Ukrainian flag over the town’s ruins, it was obvious what would happen next. The next target, Novoprokopivka, is visible from the high ground in Robotyne, a mile away.

But how the Ukrainians are moving on Novoprokopivka speaks to their growing battlefield experience, 19 months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. Borrowing a plan from the Ukrainian marine corps—which liberated the town of Urozhaine, 60 miles east of Robotyne, by flanking it and starving its Russian garrison—the Ukrainian air-assault forces 46th and 82nd Brigades turned east instead of rolling south.

The Russian garrison in Verbove—a motor-rifle regiment, a special forces brigade and a trio of reserve battalions—is much smaller than is the seven-regiment Russian garrison in Novoprokopivka.

The Russians could shift forces to Verbove in order to try blocking the 46th and 82nd Brigades’ assault. They also could assign to Verbove elements of the elite 76th Guard Air Assault Division, which the Kremlin apparently is rushing from eastern Ukraine to the south in a desperate bid to stabilize the front line.

But the 76th GAAD is the Kremlin’s last uncommitted division. So if commanders further reinforce Verbove, they must do so at the expense of other strongpoints along the southern front line.

If the Kremlin does the expedient thing and bolsters the Verbove garrison with the elements of the Novoprokopivka garrison, it could create an opportunity for the other Ukrainian brigades in and around Robotyne—including the battle-hardened 47th and 65th Mechanized—to do what the 46th and 82nd Brigades opted not to do: directly assault Novoprokopivka from north to south.

In that sense, the air-assault forces’ effort around Verbove could be the Ukrainians’ main effort in their Melitipol thrust, or it could be a diversion supporting the real main effort farther to the west. It all depends on what the Russians choose to do: sit tight in Novoprokopivka and hope the Verbove line holds, or reinforce Verbove and hope the Novoprokopivka line holds.

It’s an unhappy position for Russian troops to be in: choosing between two bad options that the Ukrainians presented them by virtue of the Ukrainians’ own clever deployments.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/29/two-ukrainian-air-assault-brigades-are-flanking-russias-next-strongpoint-on-the-road-to-melitopol/

Russia has about 100K troops and 800 tanks in the east still in reserve and uncommitted to most of the fight. Unsure how Forbes is thinking that 76th is the only troops available to the Kremlin.  

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26 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I posted an article a while ago that thoroughly reviewed the Allied air campaign in the first Gulf War specifically against Iraqi air defense. It was far from perfect, with maybe half of HARM missiles actually destroying intended targets. Serbian IADS was much more resilient. 
 

Russian IADS, while not invincible by any means, would be a consistent enough threat where consistent air superiority over the front simply wouldn’t be guaranteed even to the US. 

Can you post link to that article please

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23 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I posted an article a while ago that thoroughly reviewed the Allied air campaign in the first Gulf War specifically against Iraqi air defense. It was far from perfect, with maybe half of HARM missiles actually destroying intended targets. Serbian IADS was much more resilient. 
 

Russian IADS, while not invincible by any means, would be a consistent enough threat where consistent air superiority over the front simply wouldn’t be guaranteed even to the US. 

But air superiority against the VKS would be assured. No MiG or Su would be able to get closer than a hundred miles to the FEBA. So the USAF and associated UAVs of other services would be solely operating against SAM sites, which is a far better position that Ukraine can ever hope to be in. Also quite honestly while SAM tech has improved, US SEAD tech has improved more. An F-35 is an out of the box SEAD platform that for some reason was launched as a "fighter". Everything about it says wild weasel. What it lacks right now is an ARM; blk 4 updates will fix that. I'd argue that the USAF has advanced more in its SEAD efforts than the Russians have in their SAM efforts, even though they are more prolific. Even the first person accounts of the second Iraq war indicate to me that the USAF learned a lot of their own limitations during the Serbia campaign, and adjusted their tactics accordingly with what they had. There is a book called "Viper Pilot" about an F-16CJ pilot; they had their wingmen fire HARM as a diversion but they used CBUs and Mavericks (and fucking 20mm!) to actually engage anything they thought was of value. Obviously a much degraded threat compared to double digit SAMs, but that was also two decades ago. I wouldn't want to be a SAM operator against F-35s. I also wouldn't want to be a SAM operator against US Army GLMRS, or worse, GLMRS-ER.

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29 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Russia has about 100K troops and 800 tanks in the east still in reserve and uncommitted to most of the fight. Unsure how Forbes is thinking that 76th is the only troops available to the Kremlin.  

I'd like a source for that. If they haven't committed them, then I suspect they simply lack the logistics to commit them. It doesn't strike me as a time to be stingy with their troops in the east. If a 100k troops hit the the Kupyansk axis all at once I'd expect it to completely collapse and the southern assault to evaporate.

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8 minutes ago, Perun said:

Can you post link to that article please

Highly recommend "Viper Pilot" for a view of the SEAD effort for the second US-Iraq war. As a result of the Serbia war, they trusted their AGM-88s not at all. They basically considered them distractions on the same level as firing off flares. The AGM-65F with the IIR seeker was considered by the author to be the ultimate SEAD weapon."

I think I remember Bojan posting once that the thing that was most effective against Serb SAM batteries was visual observation from an LGB equipped aircraft that could simply bomb the SAM site directly. HARM was practically ineffective. Note however that the current AGM-88E is a very different animal with two guidance modes that previous versions didn't have (MMW and GPS).

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1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I posted an article a while ago that thoroughly reviewed the Allied air campaign in the first Gulf War specifically against Iraqi air defense. It was far from perfect, with maybe half of HARM missiles actually destroying intended targets. Serbian IADS was much more resilient. 
 

Russian IADS, while not invincible by any means, would be a consistent enough threat where consistent air superiority over the front simply wouldn’t be guaranteed even to the US. 

A 1991 HARM is not a AGM-88E - very different capabilities.

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4 hours ago, Perun said:

Two Ukrainian Air Assault Brigades Are Flanking Russia’s Next Strongpoint On The Road To Melitopol

(...)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/29/two-ukrainian-air-assault-brigades-are-flanking-russias-next-strongpoint-on-the-road-to-melitopol/

Could you put the quotes from publications in a quoting box like this?:

Quote

 

 

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2 hours ago, Josh said:

I'd like a source for that. If they haven't committed them, then I suspect they simply lack the logistics to commit them. It doesn't strike me as a time to be stingy with their troops in the east. If a 100k troops hit the the Kupyansk axis all at once I'd expect it to completely collapse and the southern assault to evaporate.

We have been hearing rumours of a Russian counteroffensive since virtually the first day of the Ukrainian assault. I dont believe them any more, particularly when the Americans are telling them to go all in. Ive heard plenty of counter narratives the Russians are already all in the front line. One Russian commander was dismissed just for asking for reinforcements, before he could find someone who went over Gerasimov and Shoigu's head and had him reinstrated. He still didnt get the reinforcements though.

I doubt the 76th is going to make much difference by itself. Its well trained guys got chewed up last year, God knows what they have now. Even their armour is for the most part lightweight, and highly vulnerable to antitank weapons.

I also think this may be one of those occasions when putting more troops into the area will just make things worse for them. I have to question if the logistic system, which was seemingly failing when Wagner were in the line, is going to do any better with having to support a beat up Airmobile Division.

 

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3 hours ago, Josh said:

I'd like a source for that. If they haven't committed them, then I suspect they simply lack the logistics to commit them. It doesn't strike me as a time to be stingy with their troops in the east. If a 100k troops hit the the Kupyansk axis all at once I'd expect it to completely collapse and the southern assault to evaporate.

I'm not sure, Ukraine should still have overall numerical superiority and amassing 100k troops for the offensive won't go unnoticed.

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The Americans would certainly have recognised that. Even the Ukrainians probably would, so piss poor is Russian signals security.

This is the third time we have had a warning about an imminent Russian counteroffensive. What is it they say, fool me once, fool on me...

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3 hours ago, Josh said:

Highly recommend "Viper Pilot" for a view of the SEAD effort for the second US-Iraq war. As a result of the Serbia war, they trusted their AGM-88s not at all. They basically considered them distractions on the same level as firing off flares. The AGM-65F with the IIR seeker was considered by the author to be the ultimate SEAD weapon."

I think I remember Bojan posting once that the thing that was most effective against Serb SAM batteries was visual observation from an LGB equipped aircraft that could simply bomb the SAM site directly. HARM was practically ineffective. Note however that the current AGM-88E is a very different animal with two guidance modes that previous versions didn't have (MMW and GPS).

Thanks

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Simply put the AGM-88A/B versions that were available in 1991 did have no means to "remember" the position of a radar once the radar was turned off.

AGM-88D got a GPS system that stores the last known position and flies towards it, even if the radar is turned off. (2003)

AGM-88E adds an active millimeter-wave seeker that is able to identify the vehicles of a SAM site and is able to even engage moving targets after the radar was turned off. (as long as the vehicles have not left the field of view of the millimeter radar). (2013)

AGM-88G AARGM-ER adds a ramjet rocket motor that doubles the range compared to the "E" version. (2023)

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