Stuart Galbraith Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Josh said: Well that escalated quickly…I think someone ran out of windows… This is why I love Russian history. If this was in the US, if Bidens Chef had formed a PMC and taken Boston, it would be banal, stupid, ahistoric. A bit crap, in exactly the same way January 6th, for all the violence, was a bit crap. But when a RUSSIAN does it, its like Sergei Eisenstein arose from the grave, grabbed a camera and said 'OK Comrades, lets film'. There is a feeling of drama, of history, of the world changing. Even though, when, you get down to it, its just Putins crazy chef on a death ride and taking 25000 convicts with him. I still strangely admire him, even though I happily concede the man really could do with a tinfoil hat.
Stuart Galbraith Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Markus Becker said: Osechkin: Russia's entire 22nd Special Forces Brigade has switched to Prigozhin's side as well as some FSB border guards. The usual reaction by the military to Wagner is said to be inaction. They just stand around, neither stopping nor joining them. And that, if you are Putin, must be absolutely terrifying. After all, he no longer has 4th Guards Tank or 2nd Guards MRD in Moscow surrounding him. He wrecked them in Ukraine.
Stuart Galbraith Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 Putin warns anyone in Wagner involved in treasonous activities will be punished. The problem of course being they are all convicts and already being punished. Wagner as the new Harkonen. Hmm.
Roman Alymov Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Markus Becker said: The usual reaction by the military to Wagner is said to be inaction. They just stand around, neither stopping nor joining them. Most of Wagner soldiers is actually former military guys (i dare to say, best of them - who left because of top brass bureoucracy and lack of action) so there is strange to expect conflicts on grassroot level with army personel. "Plywood marchal" is even more hated in Army then in civil society. Senior citizen (probably retired officer) lecturing Wagnerians in Rostov for "the mess on the street" https://t.me/dva_majors/18821 Rybar's take from Putin : "Addressl (https://t.me/rybar/48896) of the Supreme Commander came out both tough and strange. Despite the clearly drawn parallels with the First World War and the rigidity — nevertheless, Putin declared the need to ensure the integrity of the country and neutralize those who organized the rebellion — there are a lot of subtle points in the message. For example, PMCs are recognized as heroes and patriots of the country who were tricked into mutiny. For some unknown reason, Prigozhin's name is not called. Putin emphasizes that he spoke with the commander of the directions, and not the Minister of Defense and the chief of the General Staff. It seems that at the moment there is a deliberate emphasis on the fact that the Supreme Commander has a dialogue with the commanders on the ground, he appreciates the feat of the PMCs, but at the same time defiantly ignores the participants in the conflict — Prigozhin and Shoigu. Time will tell what this will lead to in the future." Also note Putin (who was repeatedly criticized for his demonstrative abstain from military operation command, while dealing with unimportant things like ecotourism etc.) named himself Supreme Commander. And by the way it seems to me his hair are unusually white - may be, somebody desided that it is no time makeup.
Roman Alymov Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Putin warns anyone in Wagner involved in treasonous activities will be punished. The problem of course being they are all convicts and already being punished. Wagner as the new Harkonen. Hmm. Most of Wagner are not convicts - but former military (many of them from SOF) and LNR/DNR militia members. Convicts who were hired last year have allready through their 6-month contracts and left (some of them are back on new contract, but they are no more "convicts" but free citizens).
Stuart Galbraith Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: Most of Wagner are not convicts - but former military (many of them from SOF) and LNR/DNR militia members. Convicts who were hired last year have allready through their 6-month contracts and left (some of them are back on new contract, but they are no more "convicts" but free citizens). Ok, but they are still not people afraid of breaking the law. In fact, looked at from their point of view, if the Chef falls, they are just going to be used as a meatgrinder in another failed offensive by Shoigu and co. Throwing in their lot against Putin may look the best form of survival long term. Whether that is going to be the same for the Army as well is another matter. Your Army doesnt generally like to get involved in coups. I remember Lebed in 1991 standing back allowing the Moscow coup to fall apart. OTOH, its not exactly typical for Spetznaz Forces to jump in on the side of insurrectionists either. All this puts into another perspective why Shoigu didnt want to give them ammunition... Edited June 24, 2023 by Stuart Galbraith
Roman Alymov Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Ok, but they are still not people afraid of breaking the law. Not to greater extent then other Russians. Here common sence is traditionally more important that written law. 6 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: All this puts into another perspective why Shoigu didnt want to give them ammunition... I'm affraid you have missed Murz interview i have posted - he insisted "Wagner" in fact was getting priority supply of artillery ammo (while regular Army units were starved of ammunition). Not everything Prigozhin is saying is immediately true (but some things are - he is wise enough to maintain the mix on reasonable level to be more or less trusted by public).
Roman Alymov Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 Interesting sideeffect of current events - Strelkov's TG channel got about 50k new subscribers overnight (reaching 850k). Note Wagner Group official channel is ~180k subscribers.
Der Zeitgeist Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 This is starting to feel like August 2021 in Afghanistan. One provincial capital after another falling without a fight.
Stuart Galbraith Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 So we have either Putin the pants poisoner, or Nikky Khrushchev Mk2. Oh, the agony of choice....
Roman Alymov Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said: This is starting to feel like August 2021 in Afghanistan. One provincial capital after another falling without a fight. What provincial capital? No reports of Warner presence in ciries except Rostov. Big Wagner column with at least one Pantsyr (active) and armor on lkatbeds is filmed standing om M4 highway (Rostov-Moscow). Also, reportedly some targets were bombed by planes in Boguchar region (between Rosnov and Voronezh). Meanwhile locals in Rostov line up to take selfies on Wagnet tanks https://t.me/uav_tech/17119
RETAC21 Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Roman Alymov said: What provincial capital? No reports of Warner presence in ciries except Rostov. Big Wagner column with at least one Pantsyr (active) and armor on lkatbeds is filmed standing om M4 highway (Rostov-Moscow). Also, reportedly some targets were bombed by planes in Boguchar region (between Rosnov and Voronezh). Meanwhile locals in Rostov line up to take selfies on Wagnet tanks https://t.me/uav_tech/17119 Seems that Wagner is also shooting down a few birds
Stuart Galbraith Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 Im curious, how many here think there is any chance of Prighozin surviving the week, let alone displacing Shoigu and Gerasimov?
Der Zeitgeist Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Im curious, how many here think there is any chance of Prighozin surviving the week, let alone displacing Shoigu and Gerasimov? Impossible to say right now. The big question is if the Loyalists are truly willing to fight. That's why I mentioned Afghanistan.
DB Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 On 11/12/2022 at 3:52 PM, DB said: Yevgeny Prigozhin, if you are to believe the very strong hints placed in some war summaries (for example the ISW ones posted regularly by txtree99), seems to have an alternative motive for his actions than merely making money out of the war as a PMC financier. I suppose the aim is to engender additional suspicion within the more traditional power structures in Russia towards the PMC, which otherwise looks to be positioning itself as a paramilitary structure that might want to run the country. Oh look.
seahawk Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 The healing of Russia begins, then the Ukraine will be crushed.
BansheeOne Posted June 24, 2023 Posted June 24, 2023 6 hours ago, Huba said: My girl Alina "I'm being politically persecuted in Germany for telling the truth about Ukrainian Nazi biolabs" Lipp doing valuable journalistic work for a change.
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