Kiev Is Burning

[crazyinsane105]

14 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Frankly, the whole run-up to this with video tirades about no ammunition, questioning all and sundry official narratives about the war, capturing regular army LTCs and making them confess that their troops fired on Wagner vehicles, claims of mined egress routes and now rocket attacks on Wagner camps culminating in a call for a march for truth which is totally not a coup, immediately followed by social media statements of senior military figures and public declarations of loyality by frontline troops has all been so theatralic and over the top that I can only think it's a staged play to discredit pro-war hardliners and prepare the public for giving up most war aims while cracking down on dissent. I wouldn't be surprised if by next week there was a ridiculously Russian reality adjustment and the claim that Putin was misled to enter this terrible, terrible war by a small clique of criminal traitors, and there will be a honorable peace shortly.

There was an interesting admission by one of Putins close bodyguards who defected to the West. He claims the Covid lockdowns caused Putin to lose touch with reality, and the war is just an outcome of that.

Covid lockdowns definitely caused mental stress and anxiety on many folks. Who knows, maybe this was a contributing factor? 

[ex2cav]

11 hours ago, ink said:

I think it's still too soon to call it, honestly. Besides, it was only today that a top Ukrainian official said that the offensive was still in the "shaping" phase.

I would like to think so......

[ex2cav]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I'm not surprised at all at the lack of success so far.   None of the necessary operational ingredients seemed present, and on top they've given the Russians over half a year to fortify and prepare their mobilization forces.  The thing in this entire war that surprised me the most was when the Russians pulled back from their Kherson bridgehead.  But afterwards, as more information came out on how badly Putin had allowed Russian forces to contract, (casualties and expiration of contracts), the decision made more sense.  But now, the Russians I would not be surprised if Russian reserves alone are larger than their entire invading armies in Feb 2022.

That's the old saying, but you can also be the best tank unit ever to see action in the history of the world, and guided artillery shells, artillery, mines and drones will still  happily do their thing.    We are at an age where regardless of the training and elan of the attacking forces, if you attack, bank on 20%+ casualties per day just as the ante to being under drone observation against a pier opponent.   

I think yes.  In the past week the daily summaries are indicating more Russian attacks all along the lines, and a piece yesterday went over some of the Russian reserves.

They'd consider them targets the moment they crossed the border.   Apparently the Ukrainian F-16 pilots are going to be trained in Rumania, which suggests the possibility that they will fly combat missions from there.   That in and of itself is not that big a deal, (few Ukrainian aircraft seem like they are destroyed on the ground).  But what NATO is obviously seeking is a precedent for switching the F-16's out for F-35's if the Russians tolerate the F-16's flying from Rumania.  Problem is, the Russians aren't stupid and know that this is the real game afoot, as even the thickest of Biden's team of idiots by this time knows that the only kit in the USAF that can make a difference are the stealth aircraft.

 

I think the Russians realize they are fighting Nato. The blank check has solidified hard-liners belief in Moscow that it was time to strike, no matter the performance or readiness of Russian forces at the time of invasion. 

I don't see F-16s doing too much, as they will not want to see downed F-16's like we are seeing destroyed Bradleys and Leos. They will be held "in reserve"; the Ukies realizing it is more mission creep on the part of Nato, and each step brings Nato troops closer to operating openly in force on their soil. 

I continue to believe that is the Ukie plan, draw Nato in, WW3, destroy Russian speakers then....well, I don't think they are thinking that far ahead. 

The Russians, as I have written, are in a degrading position. Politically, it is still acceptable for Nato to mission creep. If I was in Moscow, the summer of 23 would be the year to end this with decisive victory. I don't know if they have the forces to do so. I don't know what the plan is other than attrition on the Ukie side Kiev realizes their country is flattened. Again, dangerous as the Russians don't know the limit of western support. 

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, ex2cav said:

I think the Russians realize they are fighting Nato. The blank check has solidified hard-liners belief in Moscow that it was time to strike, no matter the performance or readiness of Russian forces at the time of invasion. 

I don't see F-16s doing too much, as they will not want to see downed F-16's like we are seeing destroyed Bradleys and Leos. They will be held "in reserve"; the Ukies realizing it is more mission creep on the part of Nato, and each step brings Nato troops closer to operating openly in force on their soil. 

I continue to believe that is the Ukie plan, draw Nato in, WW3, destroy Russian speakers then....well, I don't think they are thinking that far ahead. 

The Russians, as I have written, are in a degrading position. Politically, it is still acceptable for Nato to mission creep. If I was in Moscow, the summer of 23 would be the year to end this with decisive victory. I don't know if they have the forces to do so. I don't know what the plan is other than attrition on the Ukie side Kiev realizes their country is flattened. Again, dangerous as the Russians don't know the limit of western support. 

The West is simply giving enough equipment to bleed Russia, but not let Ukraine get to a decisive victory. The fact that Ukraine was handed over less than 50 modern tanks (Challenger 2, updated Leapord 2) and mostly 1980 Leo 1s and Leo 2s, and told ‘yeah, you’ll be good to go against the largest series of fortifications built since WWII against an enemy that mined everything and has air superiority’ is quite mind boggling. 

The West doesn’t want either side to actually win this fight. If it did, we’d see a lot more US tanks, F-15s, F-18s…the whole packaged deal. So far, nothing of that nature. 
 

Probably really frustrating for the Ukrainians to have to deal with this..

[Josh]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

There was an interesting admission by one of Putins close bodyguards who defected to the West. He claims the Covid lockdowns caused Putin to lose touch with reality, and the war is just an outcome of that.

Covid lockdowns definitely caused mental stress and anxiety on many folks. Who knows, maybe this was a contributing factor? 

No idea. One man rule has its vulnerabilities.

[ClaymoreCA]

Video shows Wagner troops (supposedly) surrounding the Southern District HQ in Rostov.

I am not an expert in recognizing PMC markings... only reporting what I've seen here.  I also note that the tanks and APC shown on other video have their turrets rotated towards the HQ.  That's strange if they're RU forces.

Whom so ever controls Rostov controls the logistic corridor for the RU army in southern Ukraine.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by ClaymoreCA

[crazyinsane105]

1 minute ago, ClaymoreCA said:

Video shows Wagner troops (supposedly) surrounding the Southern District HQ in Rostov.

Whom so ever controls Rostov controls the logistic corridor for the RU army in southern Ukraine.

Could you post that video? Would like to see it, interesting info 

[ClaymoreCA]

Tanks and troops facing inwards

 

[Huba]

 

[crazyinsane105]

WarLeaks is relaying the same info, but they aired some caution stating this might be the beginning of an attempted coup, or just another media stunt to give the Ukrainians a false sense of hope, to encourage them to do something stupid on the battlefield.

Anything is possible, and unclear on what is truly happening. 

[lucklucky]

Yeah, It can be to test reactions.

[bfng3569]

https://twitter.com/Stephen_Geiger/status/1672431141788188673?s=20

[crazyinsane105]

What is strange is that in Moscow, nobody seems to care. Meaning, I read that the clubs, restaurants, and bars are full and business going on as usual.

Wondering if it’s due to a complete disconnect on whatever happens beyond Moscow, nobody cares. Or that people feel indifferent on if a coup does happen simply because they see no difference in being ruled by one madman versus another, as long as their own lives don’t change much. 
 

Then again, similar thing took place in Ukraine back in 2014-2015. Country was at war and in Kiev and other cities not effected, many people went about their lives as usual. 
 

Just saw the video in Rostov and quite frankly people seem more curious than afraid, there aren’t even large crowds gathering to observe what is happening. Nobody in the videos thus far seem eager to take sides and just observing. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by crazyinsane105

[lucklucky]

1 minute ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Or that people feel indifferent on if a coup does happen simply because they see no difference in being ruled by one madman versus another, as long as their own lives don’t change much. 

Probably this.

[bfng3569]

27 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

What is strange is that in Moscow, nobody seems to care. Meaning, I read that the clubs, restaurants, and bars are full and business going on as usual.

Wondering if it’s due to a complete disconnect on whatever happens beyond Moscow, nobody cares. Or that people feel indifferent on if a coup does happen simply because they see no difference in being ruled by one madman versus another, as long as their own lives don’t change much. 
 

Then again, similar thing took place in Ukraine back in 2014-2015. Country was at war and in Kiev and other cities not effected, many people went about their lives as usual. 
 

Just saw the video in Rostov and quite frankly people seem more curious than afraid, there aren’t even large crowds gathering to observe what is happening. Nobody in the videos thus far seem eager to take sides and just observing. 

[Josh]

Well that escalated quickly…I think someone ran out of windows…

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Then again, similar thing took place in Ukraine back in 2014-2015. Country was at war and in Kiev and other cities not effected, many people went about their lives as usual.

I'm seeing this now with coverage of the war.  So many stories of missile strikes by Russia behind the lines... and it just looks like normal, everyday life was interrupted.  Not a lot of impression of an older, country-is-in-total-war vibe coming from these stories.  For example, early in the war... weren't basically all males called up to duty?  I understand it's impossible to field every male in Ukraine but I get the impression they're using just a tiny fraction of whatever they may have mobilized (while the rest go on living a normal life).

[PCallahan]

I am seeing reports of Wagner forces effectively taking control of both Rostov and Voronezh.  Roman, if you are about, WTF is going on here?

[seahawk]

3 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

WarLeaks is relaying the same info, but they aired some caution stating this might be the beginning of an attempted coup, or just another media stunt to give the Ukrainians a false sense of hope, to encourage them to do something stupid on the battlefield.

Anything is possible, and unclear on what is truly happening. 

The Ukrainians will not profit. The Russian lines will hold and once the corruption has been removed, the Wagner forces and the rest of the Russian army will return to the Ukraine stronger than ever and will crush them with ease.

[Markus Becker]

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

I wouldn't be surprised if by next week there was a ridiculously Russian reality adjustment and the claim that Putin was misled to enter this terrible, terrible war by a small clique of criminal traitors, and there will be a honorable peace shortly.

🧂🧂🧂 

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

What is strange is that in Moscow, nobody seems to care. Meaning, I read that the clubs, restaurants, and bars are full and business going on as usual.

Wondering if it’s due to a complete disconnect on whatever happens beyond Moscow, nobody cares. Or that people feel indifferent on if a coup does happen simply because they see no difference in being ruled by one madman versus another, as long as their own lives don’t change much. 
 

Then again, similar thing took place in Ukraine back in 2014-2015. Country was at war and in Kiev and other cities not effected, many people went about their lives as usual. 
 

Just saw the video in Rostov and quite frankly people seem more curious than afraid, there aren’t even large crowds gathering to observe what is happening. Nobody in the videos thus far seem eager to take sides and just observing. 

It's a power struggle within the regime. Best not to involve oneself until it has been resolved.

And always, always stay away from the guys with the guns: crossfire and NDs are a thing. 

[seahawk]

22 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

🧂🧂🧂 

Or a play in, how to remove generals that failed you and enact a total mobilisation.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

 

When he was in charge of all operations in Ukraine, he ordered the withdrawal because staying in Kherson across the Dniper was a terrible idea. He managed to withdraw the bulk of Russian forces across a river while under fire from HIMARS and an enemy force several times the size of the Russians. The Ukrainians, for all their bluster, did not manage to sweep through alongside the bank of the Kherson and envelop these Russian forces, majority of whom were VDV, Spetznas, etc. Doing so would have been a catastrophic defeat for the Russians. 
 

He also was in favor of Russia being on the defensive for the past year (except in Bakhmut). Those fortifications and defensive lines were more or less his idea. Same fortifications that Ukraine is finding difficult to overcome. 
 

He wasn’t in charge of all operations for longer than a few months. The guy who replaced him was a total idiot, even Roman agrees to that. Currently he is in command of the Russian aerospace forces.

Out of all Russian generals so far, he’s shown the most competence, even the Ukrainians won’t deny this. 

 

Thats kind of like saying McClellan was the best of all the generals the Union had tried by 1862. But he still wasnt any bloody good.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, PCallahan said:

I am seeing reports of Wagner forces effectively taking control of both Rostov and Voronezh.  Roman, if you are about, WTF is going on here?

As far as i am able to see from Moscow, small group of Wagner PMC fighters (two tanks, one BTR-80, couple of MRAPs and few pickut trucks) entered Rostov-on-Don from Lugansk region (it is about 100 km drive) and enteerd South Mil District HQ building (former North-Causasus Mil District HQ, my grandfather worked in this building in last years of his long military career). No shots were fired. Insdie (in inner yard) Prigozhin was filmed talking with deputy MoD Evkurov (one of few top Army generals who got high reoutation - he was the commander in charge of VDV march to Prishtina airbase) and deputy GRU head. Nothing is goin on, Prigozhin insisted he is not going to interfere into command of the troops on the front (and it is confirmed from the frontline).

  While i was typing it, there was President Putin national address on TV. I think it will be translated and published soon, so no need to detail it.

P.S. Putin address video (in Russian) https://t.me/rt_russian/163045

Edited June 24, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Markus Becker]

Osechkin: Russia's entire 22nd Special Forces Brigade has switched to Prigozhin's side as well as some FSB border guards.

 

The usual reaction by the military to Wagner is said to be inaction. They just stand around, neither stopping nor joining them.