Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

13 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Forgive me then for being the one who messaged you begging you to stay on tanknet because I said I respected your posting when you last threatened to flounce out of here. Be assured its not a courtesy I intend to repeat.

Concise im not. Realistic, well I warned of this happening for 9 years to general ridicule from the cheap seats, and here we are. So Id say thats rather more realistic a posting record than many on here who self praise, wouldnt you say?

I dont believe I said Turkey WOULD leave NATO. That is Glenn spindoctoring at work. Im suggesting if there is anything Turkey does that is wholly against NATO's interests, it will find itself out in the cold as far as buying new kit, as has already happened with Hungary. And if it doesnt like that THEN it can always choose to leave. Fairly clear I thought, even for myself.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-14/u-s-senator-blocks-arms-sales-to-hungary-over-blocking-swedens-nato-bid#:~:text=Risch's decision to block the deal was first,it did not intend to buy HIMARS systems.

 

 

 

 

Apologies Stuart; that was unfair of me. I do skim posts that are especially long in this thread in particular because it is hard to keep up with. Your posts are not the only ones I do that with in this specific stream. I think you and I broadly agree in general but I’m far more pessimistic in terms of what we can expect of The West and the degree to which The West is a good thing…I simply consider it the least bad thing, especially when it comes to my own country which has a very checkered past.

No offense was meant, even if I was overly critical, and it would not be tanknet without you.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Forget it Josh, I woke up in a bad mood. I should probably avoid posting for 5 hours after I wake up.

Don't know if Roman can confirm any of this.

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Again, unconfirmed, but the GRU allegation is interesting

 

[Josh]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Forget it Josh, I woke up in a bad mood. I should probably avoid posting for 5 hours after I wake up.

Don't know if Roman can confirm any of this.

 

 

Likewise I was drinking as usual. I’ve tried to give up the habit (posting while drinking not drinking) but obviously with mixed results.

 

Cheers

[crazyinsane105]

I think head of Wagner understands his days are very well numbered. He may have been hoping for a complete collapse of the Russian military in the south, but that didn’t happen. Rather, the Russian military seems to be ready for a long drawn out fight, and Wagner may very well be outliving its usefulness.

More or less, I wouldn’t be surprised if him along with some of his associates are killed, and that will be the end of it. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

"General Armageddon" has seen better days, too.

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

21 minutes ago, Josh said:

Likewise I was drinking as usual. I’ve tried to give up the habit (posting while drinking not drinking) but obviously with mixed results.

 

Cheers

No worries buddy.

[Stuart Galbraith]

17 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I think head of Wagner understands his days are very well numbered. He may have been hoping for a complete collapse of the Russian military in the south, but that didn’t happen. Rather, the Russian military seems to be ready for a long drawn out fight, and Wagner may very well be outliving its usefulness.

More or less, I wouldn’t be surprised if him along with some of his associates are killed, and that will be the end of it. 

I think he rather expected Putin to back him against Shoigu, and found he had overreached himself. Call it his Rohm moment.

[crazyinsane105]

https://youtu.be/0lQwY_OM0RY
 

Anyone want to bet how long he has left to live? 

[crazyinsane105]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

I think he rather expected Putin to back him against Shoigu, and found he had overreached himself. Call it his Rohm moment.

I am curious as to why Shoigu is even in power, given how unfavorably viewed he is by just about most folks in Russia, and just how incompetent he is overall. 
 

Maybe the dude makes a great drinking partner with Putin? No idea. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Id guess the same reason Stalin held onto Voroshilov. Someone whom is incompetent is no threat to the leadership.

[Der Zeitgeist]

13 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I am curious as to why Shoigu is even in power, given how unfavorably viewed he is by just about most folks in Russia, and just how incompetent he is overall. 

For anyone in Putin's position, the last thing you want is competent generals.

[crazyinsane105]

1 minute ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

For anyone in Putin's position, the last thing you want is competent generals.

So why is General Armageddon still around? He seems to be very competent. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

So why is General Armageddon still around? He seems to be very competent. 

The man who lost Kherson, really? What's his current position besides recording videos while being drunk?

[Laser Shark]

So is this just a last desperate gambit from Prigonzo, or does he have an ace (general) or two up his sleeve?

[crazyinsane105]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

The man who lost Kherson, really? What's his current position besides recording videos while being drunk?

 

When he was in charge of all operations in Ukraine, he ordered the withdrawal because staying in Kherson across the Dniper was a terrible idea. He managed to withdraw the bulk of Russian forces across a river while under fire from HIMARS and an enemy force several times the size of the Russians. The Ukrainians, for all their bluster, did not manage to sweep through alongside the bank of the Kherson and envelop these Russian forces, majority of whom were VDV, Spetznas, etc. Doing so would have been a catastrophic defeat for the Russians. 
 

He also was in favor of Russia being on the defensive for the past year (except in Bakhmut). Those fortifications and defensive lines were more or less his idea. Same fortifications that Ukraine is finding difficult to overcome. 
 

He wasn’t in charge of all operations for longer than a few months. The guy who replaced him was a total idiot, even Roman agrees to that. Currently he is in command of the Russian aerospace forces.

Out of all Russian generals so far, he’s shown the most competence, even the Ukrainians won’t deny this. 

 

[crazyinsane105]

11 minutes ago, Laser Shark said:

So is this just a last desperate gambit from Prigonzo, or does he have an ace (general) or two up his sleeve?

I believe it’s a last gamble. I don’t expect his ending to be pretty. 

[Mike1158]

Not looking pretty but the snake eatingitself rarely is.  I hope this is not too drawn out.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Colin said:

2nd line maintenance is likley to be done outside Ukraine. I doubt NATO will allow combat sorties to be flown from their territory. So aircraft flies to Ukraine, bombs up, runs several sorties. Does a touch and go in Ukraine on the last one and hops across the border to be maintained.    

I agree that NATO would not contemplate sorties from Rumania, but Not-NATO just might.

[crazyinsane105]

20 minutes ago, Mike1158 said:

Not looking pretty but the snake eatingitself rarely is.  I hope this is not too drawn out.

Probably won’t be. But it will be bloody even if it’s short.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I think head of Wagner understands his days are very well numbered.

It's again Putin's fault and indicative that Roman's constant calls of Putin being indecisive have a ring of truth to them.  He should have dealt with this nutcase 4 months ago.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

The man who lost Kherson, really? What's his current position besides recording videos while being drunk?

 

An interesting report overall, (plenty of KA-52 kill vids and details large buildup against Kherson).  But the answer to your question is around the 1:00 mark.  The narrator estimates Ukrainian KIA at this point of the war around 200,000.  This, as background to yet another large Ukrainian mobilization ongoing now to cover losses.  Any Russian general inflicting that level of destruction on the enemy must know a thing or two about war.

Edited June 23, 2023 by glenn239

[Der Zeitgeist]

5 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

An interesting report overall, (plenty of KA-52 kill vids and details large buildup against Kherson).  But the answer to your question is around the 1:00 mark.  The narrator estimates Ukrainian KIA at this point of the war around 200,000.  This, as background to yet another large Ukrainian mobilization ongoing now to cover losses.  Any Russian general inflicting that level of destruction on the enemy must know a thing or two about war.

Yes, it's horrible. Where is Zaluzhny?

[BansheeOne]

Frankly, the whole run-up to this with video tirades about no ammunition, questioning all and sundry official narratives about the war, capturing regular army LTCs and making them confess that their troops fired on Wagner vehicles, claims of mined egress routes and now rocket attacks on Wagner camps culminating in a call for a march for truth which is totally not a coup, immediately followed by social media statements of senior military figures and public declarations of loyality by frontline troops has all been so theatralic and over the top that I can only think it's a staged play to discredit pro-war hardliners and prepare the public for giving up most war aims while cracking down on dissent. I wouldn't be surprised if by next week there was a ridiculously Russian reality adjustment and the claim that Putin was misled to enter this terrible, terrible war by a small clique of criminal traitors, and there will be a honorable peace shortly.

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Frankly, the whole run-up to this with video tirades about no ammunition, questioning all and sundry official narratives about the war, capturing regular army LTCs and making them confess that their troops fired on Wagner vehicles, claims of mined egress routes and now rocket attacks on Wagner camps culminating in a call for a march for truth which is totally not a coup, immediately followed by social media statements of senior military figures and public declarations of loyality by frontline troops has all been so theatralic and over the top that I can only think it's a staged play to discredit pro-war hardliners and prepare the public for giving up most war aims while cracking down on dissent. I wouldn't be surprised if by next week there was a ridiculously Russian reality adjustment and the claim that Putin was misled to enter this terrible, terrible war by a small clique of criminal traitors, and there will be a honorable peace shortly.

It's playing out very much like Timothy Snyder was predicting last October.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war