Kiev Is Burning

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, bfng3569 said:

tomato... tomato....

The use of the Storm Shadow in this instance remains unconfirmed. But if it was, it shows the effectiveness of the weapon - with an official stated range of at least 155 miles - and the ability of Ukraine's Air Force to strike deep despite Russia's strong air defenses. You can read more about what the Storm Shadow brings to the table for Ukraine here. And you can read more about how the Ukrainian Air Force uses Storm Shadows in our deep dive here.

 

Reported that 70 percent of traffic is still crossing over the bridge. 
 

Issue is that Storm Shadow is low in numbers and there are simply a lot of high importance targets to hit..

[crazyinsane105]

On 6/21/2023 at 7:05 PM, Dark_Falcon said:

The tweet focus on the newly upgraded T-72B3, Model of 2022, but the photos in the thread focus on the care package. Seems mostly food and coffee, which is to be expected.

 

He specifically mentions in this thread that he has observed new Russian equipment being sent to units in recent months, and in pretty descent sized quantities. He is one of the individuals who tracks losses on both sides for Oryx

[Josh]

12 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

What he ‘feels’ like what will happen is quite contrary to what has happened, which is nothing. 
 

Too many people have been crying wolf over the nuke plant being sabotaged or destroyed and this hasn’t happened yet. It’s one of those things I don’t pay attention to anymore. 
 

Blowing the nuke plant will basically end Russia as we know it, not just Ukraine. The ensuing radiation will envelop much of Europe and very likely poison water supplies for both Ukraine and Russia indefinitely…so yeah, the Russians aren’t doing it. 

I generally skip through Stuart’s posts because on top of being unrealistic, he’s not at all concise.

But assuming the Russians wouldn’t do something that is a massive environmental disaster or that is against their own self interest is to stick your head in the sand for the last year and a half.

[seahawk]

12 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Turkey is a crossroads power between east and west traditionally, - I think it will slip easily back into that role without giving up NATO or its western connections.

No, as the West will try to force the queer lifestyle onto Turkey, which means abandoning all traditional values that the essential glue that keeps society together. The west will be bold and ask for the removal of the elected and beloved President.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

I generally skip through Stuart’s posts because on top of being unrealistic, he’s not at all concise.

But assuming the Russians wouldn’t do something that is a massive environmental disaster or that is against their own self interest is to stick your head in the sand for the last year and a half.

Forgive me then for being the one who messaged you begging you to stay on tanknet because I said I respected your posting when you last threatened to flounce out of here. Be assured its not a courtesy I intend to repeat.

Concise im not. Realistic, well I warned of this happening for 9 years to general ridicule from the cheap seats, and here we are. So Id say thats rather more realistic a posting record than many on here who self praise, wouldnt you say?

I dont believe I said Turkey WOULD leave NATO. That is Glenn spindoctoring at work. Im suggesting if there is anything Turkey does that is wholly against NATO's interests, it will find itself out in the cold as far as buying new kit, as has already happened with Hungary. And if it doesnt like that THEN it can always choose to leave. Fairly clear I thought, even for myself.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-14/u-s-senator-blocks-arms-sales-to-hungary-over-blocking-swedens-nato-bid#:~:text=Risch's decision to block the deal was first,it did not intend to buy HIMARS systems.

 

 

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Reported that 70 percent of traffic is still crossing over the bridge. 
 

Issue is that Storm Shadow is low in numbers and there are simply a lot of high importance targets to hit..

70 percent of softskin traffic. Try moving a tank or a tank transporter over it, and Ill break out the popcorn at what happens next.

We had this kind of commentry at the Bridge at Kherson. They boasted how magnificently it was still working, but decided to build a ferry alongside....

Ultimately we dont know how many Storm Shadow were supplied. I conjectured 150, but that is not including the French Scalp which seems to be the same thing. Could be 50, could be 150, could be 450. The real limitation I suspect is the targeting data and the number of aircraft they have that can loft them.

[DB]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I’m don’t think it was meant to take down such a bridge though. But I’d have expected a lot more damage 

I think Hollywood has given people unreasonable expectations of weapon effects against reinforced concrete structures, even if people are a bit more than usually aware of theatrics versus reality.

Assuming that it has the same type of fusing modes that the JDAM does, then it should be able to point detonate the dual warhead components simultaneously. This would make it somewhat less effective than an equivalent weight GP bomb, with the obvious benefit of that happening up to 00-500kmaway from the launch aircraft and in general going where you point it.

There is an image of a hole right through the vehicle deck of one of the bridges, so it seems to have been notably more effective than a single HIMARS hit on the Antonovsky bridge, for example, but then you'd expect that as the mass of explosives is larger. It's not a miracle worker, though - for massive damage you'd need much more.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I wonder if targeting the bridge pillars would give better results?

[DB]

You might think so. Perhaps that's beyond the seeker scene matching capability.

[Yama]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

I wonder if targeting the bridge pillars would give better results?

Likely, and I'm sure it was tried, but the accuracy may not be sufficient. Larger crater was shown next to bridge, so one missile may have missed completely.

Antonovsky bridge was short distance from the front and under almost constant bombardment, so repairing it was dangerous and somewhat futile prospect.

[Roman Alymov]

XA-180 armored car in DNR service https://t.me/anna_news/51620

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I wonder if targeting the bridge pillars would give better results?

Please excuse me for introducing you to Storm Shadow algorithm for use against bridges https://t.me/rusengineer/1079 - as we see, the hit itself was exactly as planned by designers, but then something went wrong.

 Also, note the strike force is reported to be 6 Storm Shadows, 3 of them was shot down, one hit road bridge, another one hit old road bridge next to it, 3rd one missed and created the crater on the bank. 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

Cardboard drone ( Australian SYPAQ?) captured by pro-Russians, was carrying MON-90 charge

https://t.me/dva_majors/18596

[Roman Alymov]

Strelkov about Prigozhin:

"I decided to comment on "surprise (https://www.ng.ru/politics/2023-06-22/3_8755_club.html )" "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" (I quote):

"In the meantime, among the turbopatriots, the main event was the exchange of roles between Strelkov and the founder of the Wagner PMCs, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The first one has switched to encouraging rhetoric, the second one is now broadcasting only negative in relation to its own."

My position, in fact, is completely unchanged. - I stand for a complete victory over the Ukro-Nazis, the destruction of the so-called "Ukraine" as a state and the reunification of the Russian people within Russia.

Otherwise, no matter how the military-political situation develops, I try to be objective and not lie, based on some "political gain". No matter how skeptical I am about our military prospects in strategic terms, if our troops hold the front line and successfully (in general) repel enemy attacks, I will write about it as it is, without denigrating or embellishing anything.

Leib-Garson Prigozhin, of course, proceeds only from considerations of his own benefit (as he understands it). Therefore, his rhetoric is subordinated exclusively to the political tasks that he sets for himself (or that are set for him). And in my opinion, it is as stupid to suspect his sincerity as to expect compassion for the victim from a crocodile intending to devour her." (https://t.me/strelkovii/5599)

[Roman Alymov]

Statements from latest interview by Prigozhin, where is is openly trying to capitilize on his newly gained status of popular patriotic public figure and assist "controlled defeat" party in communicating their messages (that are, surprise, quite in line with Western and pro-Ukrainian propaganda):

"Yevgeny Prigozhin  gave a great interview in which he told why the SVO began and how it was necessary to deal with Ukraine. Main Quotes:

— Ukraine has not bombed Donetsk for 8 years, but only the positions of the Russians. The APU was not going to attack Russia with NATO blocs, the Russian Defense Ministry is deceiving the public and the president

— On February 24, there was nothing extraordinary. The Defense Ministry is trying to deceive the public, trying to deceive the president and tell the story that there was insane aggression on the part of Ukraine, and they were going to attack us together with the entire NATO bloc

— Zelensky, when he became president, was ready for agreements. All I had to do was get off Olympus, go and negotiate with him

— What was the war for? The war was necessary for Shoigu to receive the "hero's star". The oligarchic clan governing Russia needed the war. The war was needed to put Medvedchuk as president of Ukraine

— Donbass has been plundered since 2014 by people from Putin's administration, the FSB and the oligarch" (summary taken from https://t.me/c/1688853451/86355 )

Strelkov's comment on that (https://t.me/strelkovii/5605😞

"Having skimmed through the next performance of the Leib-Garson  Prigozhin, I state that Yevgeny Viktorovich:
a) Continues his "promotion" into a political figure of the "first echelon", seeking to "drag over" the entire pool of "angry patriots";
b) In his style, he cheekily lies on many issues, competently mixing truth with lies. I especially liked his statement that "the war is beneficial to the Russian oligarchs." This is not so funny as it is striking in the arrogance and shamelessness of the lie. To the overwhelming number of Russian oligarchs, roughly speaking, the war for the reunification of Donbass and Crimea (not to mention the whole of Novorossiya and Little Russia) was and remains a "sickle in the balls". At least 3/4 (I think - more) of all these Grefs-Millers-Rotenberg-Timchenko-Abramovich-Usmanov and so on, and so on and so forth - "sleep and see" how to quickly surrender to "partners" on any terms (except, of course, setting them personally "on flow and plunder"). And Prigozhin's "stories" of this kind now objectively play to incline the authorities and the population to surrender. Prigozhin should have been court-martialed for a lot already. Now also for betrayal. Unless, of course, it is permissible to consider an ethnically and mentally non-Russian criminal as a traitor to Russia... He's probably just an enemy."

Edited June 23, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[txtree99]

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22.

Senior Kremlin officials continue to publicly address the Ukrainian counteroffensive in a cohesive manner and acknowledge Ukrainian forces will conduct further operations, while continuing to inflate Russian successes.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will form a “reserve army” by the end of June, form a new army corps, and reinforce key Western Military District (WMD) formations as part of intended force restructuring.

The Russian MoD is unlikely to fully formalize Russian volunteer formations by its stated July 1 deadline.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are preparing to conduct a possible sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). A Russian-created radiological incident at the ZNPP remains unlikely but not impossible.

Ukrainian forces may be intensifying efforts to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Western partners have different expectations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and stated that Ukrainian forces will perform operations as Ukraine sees fit independent of pressure from another country.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near the Kupyansk-Svatove line.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Bakhmut.

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Ukrainian and Russian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are transferring GRU Spetsnaz units to Kursk and Bryansk oblasts to fight Russian partisans.

Russian sources claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested a group of saboteurs in occupied Melitopol that allegedly planned the assassination of unnamed Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials and sabotage against railroads.
 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2023

[ex2cav]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

I generally skip through Stuart’s posts because on top of being unrealistic, he’s not at all concise.

But assuming the Russians wouldn’t do something that is a massive environmental disaster or that is against their own self interest is to stick your head in the sand for the last year and a half.

+1

[Roman Alymov]

From Oleg Tsarev about Perekop bridges and possible further steps pf both sides (https://t.me/olegtsarov/6870):

"Yesterday, the AFU attacked the Chongar Isthmus connecting the Crimea and the Kherson region. Firstly, I want to clarify that there are three bridges: a double–track railway bridge over the Siwash Bay, and parallel automobile bridges, new and old - part of the E-105 highway.

Bridges of extremely simple construction. Automobile bridges are just concrete flooring on low supports above the very edge of the bay, and the railway goes along the embankment dam at all, which makes its destruction almost impossible.

The aim of the strike was to complicate logistics between the Crimea and the Kherson, Zaporozhye regions. A complication, because it is not easy to cut the communication completely, unlike the destruction of the Antonovsky Bridge, which significantly changed the situation on the entire front — last year, regular attacks by the AFU on the Antonovsky Bridge disrupted all logistics of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the right bank of the Dnieper, which led to the withdrawal of the army and the abandonment of the same Kherson with dozens of other settlements.

The road through the Chongar Isthmus does not have such strategic importance, although it really allows you to get from the Crimea to Melitopol and further towards Berdyansk and Mariupol much faster. But this road is not the only one. There is an alternative route through Armyansk, where the traffic flow was redirected yesterday, longer by about 100 km. One of the "threads" of this route in the area of Armyansk crosses the North Crimean Canal, the width of which is about the same as on Chongar - about a hundred meters. Further in the area of Perekop, this road goes through the narrow channel Perekopsky Val. The second "thread" from Armyansk — towards Kalanchak, Kherson region — also crosses several narrow water channels, but in general not as wide as Sivash or North Crimean. It will not be easy to disable all these bridges, and repairs, taking into account the size of the bridges, will be short-lived. Nevertheless, we must be prepared for the fact that strikes on these bridges will be inflicted.

Destroying transitions is not only difficult, but also expensive. The attack on the Chongra bridges was carried out by six Storm Shadow missiles, of which three flew. The cost of one such rocket in open sources is said to be 1.5-2.5 million dollars. For comparison, the Antonovsky Bridge was hit with MLRS missiles from HIMARS installations, the cost of one projectile is about 20 times less than in the case of Storm Shadow, about 150 thousand dollars. Thus, the cost of restoring the destruction will be hundreds or thousands of times less than the missiles themselves.

One of the missiles damaged the roadbed, punching a hole measuring 1 by 2 meters, which, as our authorities have already stated, will be quickly repaired. With a certain persistence, the APU is able to destroy the span of the bridge, but in any case, the land corridor to the Crimea will not be completely cut, only the logistics shoulder will grow.

If the AFU counteroffensive had succeeded and threatened to cut the land corridor to the Crimea, the strikes on the Chongar bridges would have been understandable. But in fact, the APU makes the fifth or tenth approach to the Pyatikhatki and hits head-on in the area of Work without the slightest prerequisites to break through the front and enter the operational expanse, threatening Tokmak or Melitopol.

Since the strikes have no military meaning, it turns out that their purpose is purely media. And taking into account the fact that more and more regions of Ukraine are declaring general mobilization, we should expect an increase in terrorist attacks and shelling of our territories in the rear from Kiev.

What can be opposed to this, other than strengthening the work of air defense and strikes at airports where Ukrainian aircraft are based, with the help of which strikes are carried out on our rear? First, we need to prepare for the prompt elimination of damage. If you carry out repairs according to the standard scheme with expertise and search for contractors through a tender, then you can say goodbye to bridges in advance. The damage should be repaired within a day. We need to work out options for strengthening bridges. It is necessary, as Yuri Podolyaka correctly suggested, (https://t.me/yurasumy/9421 ) establish pontoon crossings. Repair of a segment of a pontoon ferry, in case of damage, costs a penny, takes hours, not days. All of the above, if done, makes it pointless to hit bridges."

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Yama said:

Tweet doesn't show to me, but damage to bridge (if it was indeed SS) was bit disappointing. Perhaps the warhead is not suitable for that.

One lesson of this war is that bridges are still very tough targets for anything less than really big air dropped munitions.

[ex2cav]

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Russian government itself accidentally worded its own press release in English in the wrong manner, did it?

The dynamics of the war seem at a crossroad.  The Ukrainian offensive has clearly underperformed all expectations in the West, and it seems the Russian army is shifting into the driver's seat as the vulnerability period after the mobilization has passed.  I see reports of some sort of NATO-not NATO coalition of the willing to enter Western Ukraine, and that ATACMs will go to Ukraine.   Ukraine will use it against Russia directly, and the Russians will have to respond.

 

 

Personally I was surprised at the lack of momentum of the Ukie "offensive". I assumed with all the Nato goodies they would have been more effective. They seem to hav enot been able to go much past an outpost line. I think the Ukies assumed they in Nato gear and the auto-generated force fields would take them to the Black Sea. In Russian circles they are breathing a sigh of relief, and can give validity that Ukie successes in the past have been more due to simple Russian unpreparedness in certain sectors. 

No plan survives contact with the enemy. It isn't the crate, it's the person in it that counts. A piece of equipment is only as good as it strengths are utilized and it's weaknesses protected.

I wonder if the Russians are ready to go on to the offensive themselves? I wonder how they would react to a "volunteer" army of Nato country nationals that are not officially sent by Nato. 

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

70 percent of softskin traffic. Try moving a tank or a tank transporter over it, and Ill break out the popcorn at what happens next.

Maybe, but tanks will be a small total of the overall traffic and the Russians have other means to get these across rivers.

[ink]

13 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

Personally I was surprised at the lack of momentum of the Ukie "offensive".

I think it's still too soon to call it, honestly. Besides, it was only today that a top Ukrainian official said that the offensive was still in the "shaping" phase.

[glenn239]

27 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Destroying transitions is not only difficult, but also expensive. The attack on the Chongra bridges was carried out by six Storm Shadow missiles, of which three flew. The cost of one such rocket in open sources is said to be 1.5-2.5 million dollars. For comparison, the Antonovsky Bridge was hit with MLRS missiles from HIMARS installations, the cost of one projectile is about 20 times less than in the case of Storm Shadow, about 150 thousand dollars. Thus, the cost of restoring the destruction will be hundreds or thousands of times less than the missiles themselves.

 

Sounds like this bridge is a perfect Stormshadow target for the Russians.  Shoot-down rates are high, Russian casualties are zero, and Ukrainians will run out of missiles long before the Russians run out of bridges.  

[RETAC21]

58 minutes ago, ink said:

I think it's still too soon to call it, honestly. Besides, it was only today that a top Ukrainian official said that the offensive was still in the "shaping" phase.

More a "faint" than a feint indeed. I suspect the other shoe will drop elsewhere, but they may be going for bite and hold, like in Kherson.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Sounds like this bridge is a perfect Stormshadow target for the Russians.  Shoot-down rates are high, Russian casualties are zero, and Ukrainians will run out of missiles long before the Russians run out of bridges.  

Well, the bridge (or, rather, bridges) are quite small, very low (as there is no ship traffic under them) - so they are relatively easy and quick to repair. Here is frensh satelite image  showing both places where Storm Shadows hit (white arrows) and new pantoon bridge prepaed for the case of continuation of attacks - exactly as proposed by Oleg Tsaryov in his article

source https://t.me/milinfolive/102456