Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

Drone-directed artillery vs. SPG (Western?) in cover https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89854

[KV7]

On 6/20/2023 at 3:17 PM, KV7 said:

Hypothetically one could produce a thermobaric/incendiary warhead with very slow burn by using less HE and larger air burning fragments, including perhaps of incendiary material, which would have reduced blast and produce a bit more heat by using more air burning, but TOS seemingly does not use this sort of warhead, rather it seems optimised for producing peak overpressure at a moderate distance from the explosion centre.  

Coincidentally, we now see exactly this sort of warhead in use now:

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89742

[Roman Alymov]

Curious case: small FPW drone with IED was "shot down" by infantryman from Baikal region by throwing field ration bag https://t.me/anna_news/51582?single

[Yama]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

In fact, there was at discussion between America and Hungary that went along the lines of 'well you want HIMARS. Well, we want Sweden in NATO'. At which point Hungary became curiously receptive.

When you consider how much Western Kit Turkey is operating, it would be very, very easy for the Caliph to overplay his hand and find himself with a lot of western hardware that wont work because they can no longr get spare parts.

NATO needs Ukraine more than it needs Turkey. Thats a shame for Turkey, but nonetheless a fact.

Public statements have been made that NATO cannot accept a new member who is already at war. That would open way too many cans full of worms. So, the conflict would need to be resolved somehow first.

[Roman Alymov]

12 hours ago, Dark_Falcon said:

Yes, it's the same clip.

Now compilation with exact location from DNR Police SWAT https://t.me/anna_news/51584

[seahawk]

6 minutes ago, Yama said:

Public statements have been made that NATO cannot accept a new member who is already at war. That would open way too many cans full of worms. So, the conflict would need to be resolved somehow first.

Nobody declared war against the Ukraine.

[Roman Alymov]

11 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Media too big error - can you summarize?

No need for it, as now it is available (almost in full) on censorship-free Asian YouTube, demonstrating new tactics of pro-Ukrainians: sending groups of infantry on IFV/MRAP to quickly cross the field and unload in next tree line, while heavy armor is staying behind. After infantry offloaded. armor is leaving them to their fate

 

[Yama]

15 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Nobody declared war against the Ukraine.

You don't need to argue with me about that...

[Roman Alymov]

Another NATO armor graveyard near Orekhov, including at least two wehicles that lools like M113AS4 ALV"Ulte" and one that looks like tracked MLRS https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89847

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

When you consider how much Western Kit Turkey is operating, it would be very, very easy for the Caliph to overplay his hand and find himself with a lot of western hardware that wont work because they can no longr get spare parts.

NATO needs Ukraine more than it needs Turkey. Thats a shame for Turkey, but nonetheless a fact.

Excelent example of arrogance. Isn't it that NATO that was advertised as union of equal members? Isn't Turkey member of NATO (with 2nd largest army by the way, IIRC)? How it is possible to talk about "if NATO needs Turkey" without Turkey taking part in decision?

    Not to mention that Turkey is country of 80+ mln people ( France - 68+, UK - 56,  Ukraine prior to 2022 - 36, current population of about 20 mln) so it is more likely for Turks to ask "Do really NATO needs UK?"

Re "find himself with a lot of western hardware that wont work" - unlike Western politicians, "Caliph" is carefull enough not to kommit to wars on another side of the globe, and conflicts Turkey has on its borders are quite managable even with local-produced kit.

[TrustMe]

Kerson bridge hit.

 

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Kerson bridge hit.

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

54 minutes ago, Yama said:

Public statements have been made that NATO cannot accept a new member who is already at war. That would open way too many cans full of worms. So, the conflict would need to be resolved somehow first.

Not necessarily, all you really need is a ceasefire, and statesmen with a pair of balls (or the female equivalent).

[Stuart Galbraith]

28 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Another NATO armor graveyard near Orekhov, including at least two wehicles that lools like M113AS4 ALV"Ulte" and one that looks like tracked MLRS https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89847

They look rather like FV432's to me. Big win there for Team Putin.

 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

Public statements have been made that NATO cannot accept a new member who is already at war. That would open way too many cans full of worms. So, the conflict would need to be resolved somehow first.

Honestly that’s probably why Putin seems to be aiming for perpetual war. It has some domestic advantages for him at home and it keeps Ukraine out of NATO. At this point any peace might be interpreted as too risky.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Excelent example of arrogance. Isn't it that NATO that was advertised as union of equal members? Isn't Turkey member of NATO (with 2nd largest army by the way, IIRC)? How it is possible to talk about "if NATO needs Turkey" without Turkey taking part in decision?

    Not to mention that Turkey is country of 80+ mln people ( France - 68+, UK - 56,  Ukraine prior to 2022 - 36, current population of about 20 mln) so it is more likely for Turks to ask "Do really NATO needs UK?"

Re "find himself with a lot of western hardware that wont work" - unlike Western politicians, "Caliph" is carefull enough not to kommit to wars on another side of the globe, and conflicts Turkey has on its borders are quite managable even with local-produced kit.

Turkey has been antagonistic to US/NATO in a number of ways and I think wouldn’t be missed if they left the alliance. That said, while I think they might get strong armed into accepting Sweden, Ukraine membership seems very unlikely and not just for Turkish and Hungarian reasons.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Josh

[Josh]

It seems odd that the bridges connecting Crimea would only be hot now. They would have been my first Stormshadow targets.

[seahawk]

8 minutes ago, Josh said:

It seems odd that the bridges connecting Crimea would only be hot now. They would have been my first Stormshadow targets.

If you take them out early, Russia adjusts the flow of supplies accordingly.

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet (some new modification?) vs. loaded BM-21 Grad, note how burned out and rusty are Grad launch tubes

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/1183

[Roman Alymov]

29 minutes ago, Josh said:

Turkey has been antagonistic to s/NATO in a number of ways and I think wouldn’t be missed if they left the alliance. That said, while I think they might get strong armed into accepting Sweden, Ukraine membership seems very unlikely and not just for Turkish and Hungarian reasons.

Or vise versa, the rest of NATO (controlled by US) is increasdingly antagonistic to relatively conservative and prudent Turkey in pursuit of own self-destruction political objectives....

[Roman Alymov]

34 minutes ago, Josh said:

It seems odd that the bridges connecting Crimea would only be hot now. They would have been my first Stormshadow targets.

Pro-Russians believe that pro-Ukrainians were planning to capture them intact for their offencive into Crimea. Now, as this offencive is looking less likely, they decided to target them.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They look rather like FV432's to me. Big win there for Team Putin.

 

Not sure, as for me it is not - rather something like this

 

[TrustMe]

52 minutes ago, Josh said:

Turkey has been antagonistic to s/NATO in a number of ways and I think wouldn’t be missed if they left the alliance. That said, while I think they might get strong armed into accepting Sweden, Ukraine membership seems very unlikely and not just for Turkish and Hungarian reasons.

I think that Turkeys will stay in NATO. If you look at Middle East history, with all those wars fought since 1945. The only reason why Turkey hasn't been dragged into them is because it was a NATO member. And the rest of the M.E. was afraid of Turkey because of it and not because of the massive Turkish Armed Forces.

Edited June 22, 2023 by TrustMe

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

It seems odd that the bridges connecting Crimea would only be hot now. They would have been my first Stormshadow targets.

Which begs the question, maybe this area is going to be phase two....

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Excelent example of arrogance. Isn't it that NATO that was advertised as union of equal members? Isn't Turkey member of NATO (with 2nd largest army by the way, IIRC)? How it is possible to talk about "if NATO needs Turkey" without Turkey taking part in decision?

    Not to mention that Turkey is country of 80+ mln people ( France - 68+, UK - 56,  Ukraine prior to 2022 - 36, current population of about 20 mln) so it is more likely for Turks to ask "Do really NATO needs UK?"

Re "find himself with a lot of western hardware that wont work" - unlike Western politicians, "Caliph" is carefull enough not to kommit to wars on another side of the globe, and conflicts Turkey has on its borders are quite managable even with local-produced kit.

The warsaw pact was made up of equal members too, right up till you invaded Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Cant have the tail wagging the dog eh?

In the end, dont like the alliance? Leave. But you leave our alliance, we dont send the tanks in to keep you in it.