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Posted

Interesting text from Oleg Tsaryov, who knows the topic since he himself was second-row oligarch and even Ukr Presidential candidate - quite explanation why econoimic cooperation with Ukraine was not effective for Russia, and why total corruption was, in short term, actually good for local economy (Yandex0translated from https://t.me/olegtsarov/6834 )

"Being not from Donetsk origin, I felt comfortable in the Donetsk faction of the Party of Regions among Donetsk and Luhansk residents. They kept their promises. If they were friends, then they were friends. If they fought, then according to the rules. The guys were simple and businesslike, often used the phrases "Donbass does not drive empty" and "Money defeats evil." I would like to focus on the second phrase.

I remembered the phrase of the great romantic Alexander Green: "The most complex and complicated issues are most easily solved with the help of money." When I heard this phrase, I was very surprised, I did not expect such everyday practicality from a great writer.

Returning to the thesis that "money defeats evil." The money was used to buy Ukrainian nationalists, as well as foreign officials and lobbyists. There were not as many minerals in Ukraine as in Russia, but Ukrainian oligarchs and officials had their own plus: after they "earned" money, they did not take them abroad, but invested in Ukraine, because they felt more protected at home — in Ukraine they practically did not put them in prison. there are no businessmen or officials in prison. Such a system allowed money to work within the country and maintain a fairly acceptable standard of living for people. There was no outflow of capital from the country. There was enough money for everyone. But the main money was in the hands of those who controlled the south-east of Ukraine.

But I digress. The first time the principle of "money defeats evil" did not work when there was the first Maidan. Yanukovych was not elected — the United States pushed through the election of Yushchenko. It was necessary to conclude that the thesis about the money does not work, but Yushchenko quickly sold out to the Russians, a joint venture was made with Gazprom, where Yushchenko's brother became a partner in supplying gas to Ukraine. The price of gas has been raised. All participants earned, and ordinary Ukrainians paid for everything. Plus Yushchenko sat on Akhmetov's salary. Previously, no one could have dreamed of getting such a cheap president. The principle at the expense of money worked again. Donetsk even later regretted that Yushchenko's rating had fallen to a statistical error — they had to change it to Yanukovych. The one in the content was much more expensive.

Then came the second Maidan. Geopolitics has turned on. European officials who were on the payroll suddenly started working against those who paid them the basic salary. You can't trample on the United States, and Donetsk first lost again. But they managed to build relations with Poroshenko, who is not a stranger, and then with Zelensky. Nevertheless, due to the general crisis and war, and due to the fact that Ukraine has lost the base region - Donbass, the influence and capital of Donetsk has sharply decreased. The money, though, defeated evil, but not so clearly. And money is getting less and less. Capital and asset values have plummeted. In the end, we lost.

I've always believed that a pure idea ultimately beats money. I couldn't convince my partners of this. As a result, they lost. But together with them, we all lost — the whole of Ukraine. Arrogance led to a loss.

In March last year, Abramovich tried to apply the same principle to solving a sudden "problem" — his own. SVO for Russian oligarchs is a sudden problem that, in their opinion, it is better to solve urgently and continue to live as before. One of the oligarchs said in an interview that he was ready to give half of his money so that sanctions would be lifted from him. Many were ready to do so. We tried to apply the same approach that Donetsk used: "money defeats evil." They promised a lot of money to the Kiev team for signing peace agreements. And those, unsurprisingly, agreed. At first. They were given some money to seed. And they took it. And it seemed like everything was supposed to grow together. But it didn't work out. Why? Yes, for the same reason that Donetsk guys failed: because when geopolitics intervenes, money does not work.

I wrote the story about the signing of the Istanbul Agreements. Or rather, about not signing. And about the fact that money is important, but their capabilities are greatly exaggerated."

Posted
14 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

 

Could be this:

"It’s being reported that two large supply depots that Ukraine knocked out the day before yesterday wasn’t holding munitions as first thought. Instead they were holding much of the food being provided to the Russian troops at the front. Now the (already limited) food deliveries to the front have dried up and the troops aren’t managing to ”liberate” enough from what’s left of the civilian population in the area."

Posted
3 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

 

Could be this:

"It’s being reported that two large supply depots that Ukraine knocked out the day before yesterday wasn’t holding munitions as first thought. Instead they were holding much of the food being provided to the Russian troops at the front. Now the (already limited) food deliveries to the front have dried up and the troops aren’t managing to ”liberate” enough from what’s left of the civilian population in the area."

No need to guess

 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

 

Could be this:

"It’s being reported that two large supply depots that Ukraine knocked out the day before yesterday wasn’t holding munitions as first thought. Instead they were holding much of the food being provided to the Russian troops at the front. Now the (already limited) food deliveries to the front have dried up and the troops aren’t managing to ”liberate” enough from what’s left of the civilian population in the area."

Sounds plausible. After all, you see lots of crates being taken into a storage facility, you dont necessarily know what they are holding.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Give it a decade.  Time is not on the US side.

It’s not on China’s either. But let’s save it for the China thread.

Edited by Josh
Posted

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations with a relatively high degree of rhetorical coherence, suggesting that the MoD has learned from its past mishandling of the information space during previous Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Russian forces conducted a missile and drone strike on Ukraine on June 20.

Russian forces continued a slightly intensified pace of ground attacks near Kreminna.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.

Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Kremlin continues to lower the requirements for Russian military service in an effort to increase recruitment.

Russia aims to use the annual International Military-Technical Forum “Army-2023” to diversify and expand its defense industrial base (DIB).
 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2023

Posted

There have been some promising developments in terms of supply depot and rail line destruction - most notably Rykove. The one thing that I can think of that could dramatically change the course of the offensive would be the Russians running out of artillery ammunition across a sector of the front. That might cause a catastrophic lack of defensive fire/overwatch that Ka-52s likely couldn't plug.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Josh said:

Yes.

@Seahawk doesn't seem to understand what that tweet means.

Posted

Unfortunately I do not speak Russian so it is all completely lost to me.

Posted
35 minutes ago, Josh said:

There have been some promising developments in terms of supply depot and rail line destruction - most notably Rykove. The one thing that I can think of that could dramatically change the course of the offensive would be the Russians running out of artillery ammunition across a sector of the front. That might cause a catastrophic lack of defensive fire/overwatch that Ka-52s likely couldn't plug.

See pro-Ukr interviews i have posted above, Arestovich is claiming all Russian ammunition storages in south zone allready destroyed (whth hundreds of thouthands of shells blown up), so he expect Russian artillery to be out of ammunition soon. Let's wait and see.

Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

See pro-Ukr interviews i have posted above, Arestovich is claiming all Russian ammunition storages in south zone allready destroyed (whth hundreds of thouthands of shells blown up), so he expect Russian artillery to be out of ammunition soon. Let's wait and see.

I hardly believe the Ukrainians on the matter. I've no idea if it is feasible; I'm just pointing out that would be about the only mechanism that would allow the ZSU to crack the numerous prepared defense lines, skirmish lines, and mine fields under UAV observation - a lack of indirect fire on the attackers during their advance. Even then, if the shortage were sufficiently localized, it might be plugged by sufficient mobile reserves or air assets.

Edited by Josh
Posted

Something I didn't appreciate initially is that the Rykove attack swept the adjacent rails lines away and that it is the main supply line from Crimea. Presumably Russian train troops will restore service in a day, assuming they haven't already. Shouldn't be hard to lay new track across a flat area.

Posted
45 minutes ago, Josh said:

I hardly believe the Ukrainians on the matter. I've no idea if it is feasible; I'm just pointing out that would be about the only mechanism that would allow the ZSU to crack the numerous prepared defense lines, skirmish lines, and mine fields under UAV observation - a lack of indirect fire on the attackers during their advance. Even then, if the shortage were sufficiently localized, it might be plugged by sufficient mobile reserves or air assets.

Neither am i, since pro-Russian TG (full of people who practice personally insulting Putin&Co for being weak and pro-Western) is not mentioning anything of it (while digging out any problems and failures on the frontline and in rear). Trchnically, it is possible, but untill now pro-Ukrainians are demonstrating what looks like degradation of effect of their deep strikes, not increase of it. Of course, it may change, but what we see now is not indicatinmg it.

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