Kiev Is Burning

[sunday]

8 hours ago, Poopstain said:

William had it coming.   

 

EDIT:   Just kidding -- William was arguably a fine man cut down by vile treachery--I just thought that Sunday might like my comment lol.   JUST KIDDING Sunday!  (anything for a laugh!)

As a vile traitor, and generally evil human being, William had it coming.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_of_Saxony

Ethernal glory to Balthasar Gérard!

Edited April 23, 2022 by sunday

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yet somehow all this firepower didn't dislodge Ukrainians from the essentialy fixed positions along the front in Donbas, after 2 months of shooting. I obviously cheer for Team Ukraine, but it's strange even to me - good morale can't protect you from being evaporated. Yet somehow they manage... 

Pro-Ukrainian troops got numerical superiority on Donetsk-Lugansk frontline and are dug in on positions they were preparing for eight years, got massive stock of ammunition they have brought in for their planned offencive, their supply lines are still nod disrupted (for some kind of political decision here in Russia) - so they got steady inflow of both cannonfodder they are mobilizing and food, fuel etc. It is next to miracle that in this conditions pro-Russian forces are still advancing, even with support of Russian Army regulars.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Roman Alymov said:

Pro-Ukrainian troops got numerical superiority on Donetsk-Lugansk frontline and are dug in on positions they were preparing for eight years, got massive stock of ammunition they have brought in for their planned offencive, their supply lines are still nod disrupted (for some kind of political decision here in Russia) - so they got steady inflow of both cannonfodder they are mobilizing and food, fuel etc. It is next to miracle that in this conditions pro-Russian forces are still advancing, even with support of Russian Army regulars.

You might quite right, compared to Donbas, Israel's last adventure in Lebanon was a picnic probably. 

[Roman Alymov]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

You might quite right, compared to Donbas, Israel's last adventure in Lebanon was a picnic probably. 

Not sure about picnic, but definitely smaller in scale.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

I’d assume that tanks that haven’t burned out are still good sources of spare parts, particularly expensive hard to produce items like thermals. If it’s just damaged in the running gear, entire engines could be pulled. Those vehicles don’t look like they could be returned to service but I suspect there’s a wealth of spare parts that could be sent forward.

As an example, the Syrian Panzer IV's that were fighting as late as 1967, all the spares for them were picked out of the Normandy scrapyards.

OTOH, when a T72 goes up, you are going to be lucky if there is much worth saving.

 

[Ssnake]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

The 300 mm (12 in) 9M55S thermobaric cluster warhead rocket was built to be fired from the BM-30 Smerch MLRS. A dedicated carrier of thermobaric weapons is the purpose-built TOS-1, a 24-tube MLRS designed to fire 220 mm (8.7 in) thermobaric rockets. A full salvo from the TOS-1 will cover a rectangle 200 by 400 m (220 by 440 yd). The Iskander-Mtheatre ballistic missile can also carry a 700 kg (1,540 lb) thermobaric warhead.
Many Russian Air Force munitions also have thermobaric variants. The 80 mm (3.1 in) S-8 rocket has the S-8DM and S-8DF thermobaric variants. The S-8's 122 mm (4.8 in) brother, the S-13, has the S-13D and S-13DF thermobaric variants. The S-13DF's warhead weighs only 32 kg (71 lb), but its power is equivalent to 40 kg (88 lb)of TNT. The KAB-500-OD variant of the KAB-500KR has a 250 kg (550 lb) thermobaric warhead. The ODAB-500PM and ODAB-500PMV unguided bombs carry a 190 kg (420 lb) fuel–air explosive each. The KAB-1500S GLONASS/GPS guided 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) bomb also has a thermobaric variant. Its fireball will cover a 150 m (490 ft) radius and its lethal zone is a 500 m (1,600 ft) radius. The 9M120 Ataka-Vand the 9K114 Shturm ATGMs both have thermobaric variants.

Unformatted for readability. That was atrocious.

[sunday]

https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-13/

Allegations of Ukraine havin running out of heavy weapons available for offensive operations and needing to resort to "Syrian war" tactics:

Quote

A few important words on tactics. We’ve spoke before about how the conflict in Ukraine is becoming Syrianized in the tactics of the AFU who, having most of their heavy weapons/armor destroyed, are mostly now relying on small bandit groups/DRG’s riding around on tacticals (small pickup trucks with larger caliber machine guns in the back) in the manner of ISIS. Like this:

But the hunter is fast becoming the hunted because Russia’s own saboteur groups are now increasingly ambushing these small, roving bandit teams:

Keep in mind, the AFU does have some armor and heavy weapons left, but most of them are tied to the strategically important cities they are defending, and they do not have the fuel or logistical capabilities to utilize their armor in any sort of maneuvering force action or real military operations/advances. They are hidden mostly in and around cities like Kharkov, Nikolayev, etc. Any armor that roams outward is very quickly destroyed by RF forces. And even still, in the urban agglomerations there is not a lot of it relatively speaking.

Someone produced a future map of Ukraine, unknown degree of wishful thinking:

[Perun]

[BansheeOne]

With all the drones flying around, I've wondered if the remaining Azovstal defenders could be supplied at least to some degree. Probably a lot too far for commercial types though, and the military stuff is too valuable in its actual purpose given that you'd likely have to throw a lot of it at the problem for some to get through. Maybe get creative and repurpose proper ballistic and cruise missiles?

Of course cynically speaking, it's probably better for Ukraine if Russia eradicates the Azov types and rids them of a PR liability. Then again, with Russian parlance labeling any armed Ukrainian a Nazi anyway, it likely won't make a difference.

[ink]

Just been thinking about how little info there is on Ukrainan losses of any kind. Either they're losing very little men and materiel (given the enemy they're facing) or they're doing an amazing job of keeping a lid on it.

I suppose the truth is likely to be somewhere in between.

Considering how little progress the Russians are able to make in any direction, it can't just be a case of effective Ukrainian propaganda.

Edited April 23, 2022 by ink

[ink]

Unrelated question: any info on how many attack helicopters the Russians have lost? (of all - or should I say both - types)

[Yama]

5 minutes ago, ink said:

Unrelated question: any info on how many attack helicopters the Russians have lost? (of all - or should I say both - types)

Oryx lists around 20 lost Russian attack helicopters (. That may be an undercount, OTOH it may include double counts too, as Oryx also includes cases picked from published pilot obituaries, although they might refer to already included cases): seven Mi-24 or 35, two Mi-28 and about dozen Ka-52. 

Also, unknown to how many and what helicopters Russia really lost at Kherson airfield strike, as the field was littered with derelict Ukrainian helicopters and hard to tell which wrecks where which.

[ink]

17 minutes ago, Yama said:

Oryx lists around 20 lost Russian attack helicopters (. That may be an undercount, OTOH it may include double counts too, as Oryx also includes cases picked from published pilot obituaries, although they might refer to already included cases): seven Mi-24 or 35, two Mi-28 and about dozen Ka-52. 

Also, unknown to how many and what helicopters Russia really lost at Kherson airfield strike, as the field was littered with derelict Ukrainian helicopters and hard to tell which wrecks where which.

Thanks!

A pretty damning indictment of the attack helicopter on the modern battlefield.

[Yama]

Yes, they are depressingly vulnerable vs first-rate defences, not to mention high mishap rates...US Army lost around 40 Apaches in Iraq and Afghanistan, despite only seldom facing serious MANPADS threat.

[RETAC21]

11 hours ago, alejandro_ said:

Russian missile launches into Ukraine since the start of the war.



http://alejandro-8en.blogspot.com/2022/04/graph-of-estimated-russian-missile.html

I guess this is cumulative, but what do you want to ilustrate here?

[RETAC21]

9 hours ago, Colin said:

Working on one LNG project, we had six bands claim the land as their own and some would not even sit in the same room as each other, that was really fun to discharge our consultation duty. I think Europeans have Disneyland ideal of what the First Nations were like. A lot of warfare, raids, slavery and territorial grabs. Claiming hardship is quite the profitable business here. Yes they got a raw deal, they also gave each other a raw deal quite frequently. 

Hardly:

But of course, in the history of Switzerland, there's hardly nothing to highlight.

Edited April 23, 2022 by RETAC21

[Huba]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Just been thinking about how little info there is on Ukrainan losses of any kind. Either they're losing very little men and materiel (given the enemy they're facing) or they're doing an amazing job of keeping a lid on it.

I suppose the truth is likely to be somewhere in between.

Considering how little progress the Russians are able to make in any direction, it can't just be a case of effective Ukrainian propaganda.

The important difference for Ukrainians, the stream of replacements is flowing to the units uninterrupted, and consists mostly (at this point at least) of people with actual combat experience gained in Donbas since 2014. I wouldn't be surprised is UA side took comparable losses (I think not, but it's possible), but reinforcements do all the difference here.

[RETAC21]

30 minutes ago, Huba said:

The important difference for Ukrainians, the stream of replacements is flowing to the units uninterrupted, and consists mostly (at this point at least) of people with actual combat experience gained in Donbas since 2014. I wouldn't be surprised is UA side took comparable losses (I think not, but it's possible), but reinforcements do all the difference here.

Ukraine has a pretty much bottomless reserve insofar as Russia is fighting this only with contract soldiers, so, ironically, the more numerous side can field less manpower.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Ukraine has a pretty much bottomless reserve insofar as Russia is fighting this only with contract soldiers, so, ironically, the more numerous side can field less manpower.

And this gap is only going to get wider - even if Russia mobilizes today, it is still some months till the new units are ready. Also, Russia doesn't have noteworthy pool of combat experienced soldiers to call up, while since 2014 hundreds of thousands of men has seen the trenches in Donbas. If western materiel keeps flowing, the future looks really bleak for the Russian side. Here's a rant by Strelkov on this very subject:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ive not seen this mentioned yet, and its clearly important, if probably sadly impractical for the Russians.

 

%7Bhttps://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/zelensky-warns-russia-has-ambitions-of-invading-other-countries-who-will-come-next/ar-AAWvtsp?ocid=uxbndlbing

Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday warned against Russia’s ambitions of invading other countries, saying Moscow’s war on Ukraine was just the beginning.

"All the nations that, like us, believe in the victory of life over death must fight with us. They must help us, because we are the first in line. And who will come next?" Mr Zelensky said in his address.

The warning from the Ukrainian president came as a Russian general elaborated on Moscow’s intention to control the whole of southern Ukraine to better access Moldova.

Command over southern Ukraine would give Russia access to Transnistria, a breakaway Russian-occupied part of Moldova in the west, central military district’s military commander Rustam Minnekayev was quoted as saying by the Russian state news agencies.

Moldova was quick to react to the comments, as it summoned Moscow’s ambassador on Friday to express “deep concern” over the remarks. Claiming to be neutral, Moldova had moved to join the European Union last month, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

US State department also put its weight behind Moldova’s sovereignty, even as Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on Russia’s expansion plan in southern Ukraine.

[sunday]

https://gab.com/gailauss/posts/108181054172421140

Quote

The founder of the infamous Azov battalion Andrei Biletsky thinks that killing civilians during an “Immortal Regiment” parade (i.a. with a “Tochka-U” missile) would make for a “funny video”.

 

 

Play Video

 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by sunday

[bojan]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

As an example, the Syrian Panzer IV's that were fighting as late as 1967, all the spares for them were picked out of the Normandy scrapyards...

Czechoslovakia, they had and were actually manufacturing spares, during WW2 they were making Pz-IV parts.

Any tank fully burned out is only scrap bin ready. If not a lot of things are salvageable, through not necessarily economical to do so. There was instance of M-84 turret that was blown off being reused to repair other M-84, done by Croats. In normal occasions it would have been scrappped, but during war... Guns were also often salvageable, even if tank was in very bad shape. And guns are high use item for any tank. Etc.

IOW, your biases aside, T-72 is no more "unsalvageable" than any other tank w/o separate and ventilated ammo storage (which is only M1 ATM). During 2nd Chechnya there was a higher % or repairable KOd T-72s than T-62s.

 

[KV7]

On 4/22/2022 at 5:40 AM, EchoFiveMike said:

Now pregnant?  The war hasn't been on long enough for that to manifest yet...

At least make up some believable lies.  S/F....Ken M

9/25 is atypically high and extremely improbable too.
 

[Yama]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Just been thinking about how little info there is on Ukrainan losses of any kind. Either they're losing very little men and materiel (given the enemy they're facing) or they're doing an amazing job of keeping a lid on it.

I suppose the truth is likely to be somewhere in between.

Considering how little progress the Russians are able to make in any direction, it can't just be a case of effective Ukrainian propaganda.

Some time ago Zelensky announced they had suffered "2500 to 3000 KIA". This is enormously lower than the Russian KIA they claim, making either or both numbers suspect. There is similar imbalance in figures claimed by Russia. Both sides seem to be practising some sort of reverse one-upmanship, revealing casualty figures step-by-step so that they don't sound too large compared to what other has admitted. In Soviet times, practice was often to publish loss figures gradually, to 'soften the blow' or so to speak.

Also, Ukrainians don't admit foreign volunteer deaths publicly. On that subject, Swedish embassy in Moscow was recently informed about five Swedish citizens killed in Ukraine. However no details were given, who they were or whether they were military, civilians, dual Ukrainian citizens etc.

On the other hand, maybe in our armchairs we sometimes overestimate the intensity of the war overall. In many places front has been relatively quiet and immobile for quite some time. I guess we will only learn real casualty figures after the war, maybe only long after.

[sunday]

Quote

Tucker Carlson: "Don't you doubt that most of the weapons and aid we're sending to Ukraine will get lost somewhere along the way?"

Doug McGregor, former colonel in the US Army: “Of course, there are doubts. But apparently not enough to stop this pumping of Ukraine with ammunition and money. We already have terrible experience with tracing our arms shipments, we've seen it in both Iraq and Afghanistan. I can tell you with certainty that some of the weapons that we are sending will end up in the hands of those whom we would never want to see them. If you listen to what President Biden said today, he is giving the illusion that all this will change the outcome of the battle. WILL NOT CHANGE. What is happening now is the total destruction of the best forces of Ukraine in the eastern part of the country. No one is able to change this, especially we ... All we do is heat up relations with Russia and turn Eastern Ukraine into a target for Russian missile airstrikes," the former colonel said.

https://gab.com/ErikDuPre/posts/108181407037473635

Quote

Another captured fighter of the 93rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Callsign "Firefly", MANPADS operator.

His squad, moving on an infantry fighting vehicle in the forest belt south of Izyum, did not know that ours had already occupied this forest belt, and those who defended this forest belt were destroyed.

So he says: “I look at a tank, there are soldiers near it, and the dead are lying on the ground. I thought that the tank was ours, and the dead were Russians. It was only when we got really close that we realized we had made a mistake. They started to retreat, the tank fired, I'm the only one who survived.

https://gab.com/ErikDuPre/posts/108181354291720146

Quote

Mikhail Podolyak: Ukraine is preparing a powerful counteroffensive.

"The tactics and strategy of Ukraine is to get more artillery, heavy armored vehicles and then launch very serious counterattacks against enemy groups," Podolyak stressed.

https://gab.com/ErikDuPre/posts/108181320659436080

Edited April 23, 2022 by sunday