Kiev Is Burning

[Ssnake]

13 minutes ago, On the way said:

The Ukrainians don't seem to be able to recapture lost territory in the East.

Can we please keep in mind that we're merely a month into this war, and Ukraine hasn't yet mobilized in full. This war has the potential to last for years, it's impossible and therefore foolish to predict the outcome.

[On the way]

14 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

It's the second batch from the severely overaged ex-NVA stock of 2,700. I suspect the initial 500 were those in the best condition, still deemed more dangerous to a target than the user despite the whole lot having been deadlined in 2012, considering the national emergency faced by Ukraine. The delay for the current 1,500 may have been just typical German overmeticulousness in checking them, maybe Ukraine said "screw user safety, we'll take our chances", maybe the German government got fed up with the constant nagging for more deliveries and went "here you got them, but don't blame us when you blow yourself up with them".

But the SA-7 should be able to be remotely fired, right? I mean they were mounted on Mil-24 as a measure of self defense against aircraft. The Ukrainians if not anything are pretty creative about the use of the weapons they have available. If they mount it on a truck, a human can aim it and get the tone and green light, evacuate and the missile can be fired if its rigged up to a solenoid over the trigger? I don't know. I have never shot one. They could stay out of harms way.

[On the way]

3 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

Can we please keep in mind that we're merely a month into this war, and Ukraine hasn't yet mobilized in full. This war has the potential to last for years, it's impossible and therefore foolish to predict the outcome.

They can mobilize all they want, and even take in 100000 foreign volunteers if they want. But unless they are planning human wave attacks, and without the benefit of air support, substantive artillery and armor, they are NOT going to be able to retake the East.

[Yama]

21 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

It's the second batch from the severely overaged ex-NVA stock of 2,700. I suspect the initial 500 were those in the best condition, still deemed more dangerous to a target than the user despite the whole lot having been deadlined in 2012, considering the national emergency faced by Ukraine. The delay for the current 1,500 may have been just typical German overmeticulousness in checking them, maybe Ukraine said "screw user safety, we'll take our chances", maybe the German government got fed up with the constant nagging for more deliveries and went "here you got them, but don't blame us when you blow yourself up with them".

Are they Strela-2 or Strela-3? Some sources say that GDR also had latter, which would be much more capable.

What happened to NVA's Igla inventory?

[RETAC21]

Just now, On the way said:

They can mobilize all they want, and even take in 100000 foreign volunteers if they want. But unless they are planning human wave attacks, and without the benefit of air support, substantive artillery and armor, they are NOT going to be able to retake the East.

I don't think Ssnake is oblivious to that, but the Ukrainians can get more hardware from the West to beef up their forces if the war lasts a year or more, which is why it's good for the Russians to find a way out as soon as possible.

[BansheeOne]

2 minutes ago, Yama said:

Are they Strela-2 or Strela-3? Some sources say that GDR also had latter, which would be much more capable.

What happened to NVA's Igla inventory?

Strela-2 AFAIK; from what I can find the NVA went on directly to Igla, of which however there were only 75 upon reunification. Ozelot was actually set up to fire the latter as an alternate to Stinger, but I guess they're long gone.

I find that the last 700 Strelas were found completely unusuable, so the 2,000 delivered to Ukraine will probably be all.

[seahawk]

7 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

I don't think Ssnake is oblivious to that, but the Ukrainians can get more hardware from the West to beef up their forces if the war lasts a year or more, which is why it's good for the Russians to find a way out as soon as possible.

Russia has not mobilized either. And they still have thousands of tanks, trucks and APCs that can be used. They also have a functioning arms industry that can produce tanks, guns and rifles in huge numbers. 

[On the way]

Just now, RETAC21 said:

I don't think Ssnake is oblivious to that, but the Ukrainians can get more hardware from the West to beef up their forces if the war lasts a year or more, which is why it's good for the Russians to find a way out as soon as possible.

Right now, the substantive hardware from the West in the form of tanks, attack helos, fast jets, armor, etc. is not coming and is not likely to come either. The West seems to be focusing on getting rid of their old stock or surplus stocks of MANPADS and anti tank weapons. The West can only send in armor and arty that the Ukr are familiar with and trained to use. Not what they have in their inventory. SO, unless they buy up all the T-72s that India or some other countries can sell them, its not much they can do on that front. 2 week conversion courses on an M1 for Ukrainian tank crews, for example, is not going to heck it either. So, I don't know where this heavy weapons are going to come from to allow the Ukrainians to take the East back.

In either case, I have a suspicion that the West and in particular the US have a hidden agenda to bleed the Russians aka Vietnam war style. Make UKraine into Astan Part Deux for the Russians. Tie up a large chunk of the Russian military in a stalemate war and bleed them dry of men and equipment. At the same time, it panics the taxpayers of their respective countries into acqeuiscing to large military budgets, which makes their respective militaries happy

 

[On the way]

2 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Russia has not mobilized either. And they still have thousands of tanks, trucks and APCs that can be used. They also have a functioning arms industry that can produce tanks, guns and rifles in huge numbers. 

What do they have to mobilize with? Conscripts? Reservists? I think their level of motivation and skill will be even lower then those already in Ukraine. They can have all the ammo and tanks they want, but without the fighting spirit, I don't think they are going to any more successful then the bunch in there right now.

[JoggyJohn]

8 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Russia has not mobilized either. And they still have thousands of tanks, trucks and APCs that can be used. They also have a functioning arms industry that can produce tanks, guns and rifles in huge numbers. 

Why would they mobilize? Isn't it only a (successful) special operation?

To mobilize a whole country, you have to admit you are loosing the war and lot of troops are down

Edited March 26, 2022 by JoggyJohn

[Doug]

How many Russian troops do we estimate have deserted so far? 

[seahawk]

3 minutes ago, JoggyJohn said:

Why would they mobilize? Isn't it only a special operation?

It is just a question of options. Russia still has many options left.

[On the way]

30 minutes ago, Doug said:

How many Russian troops do we estimate have deserted so far? 

 I would imagine it would be hard to desert for a russian soldier. I mean what is he going to do? Throw of his uniform, find some civvies and blend into the Ukrainian population? He will be forced back to the front as a Ukrainian fighter this time. make his way back all the way to Russia without being noticed?

[ink]

Just saw this and it made me think the Russians might need some smaller munitions for these kinds of targets.

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by ink

[RETAC21]

58 minutes ago, On the way said:

Right now, the substantive hardware from the West in the form of tanks, attack helos, fast jets, armor, etc. is not coming and is not likely to come either. The West seems to be focusing on getting rid of their old stock or surplus stocks of MANPADS and anti tank weapons. The West can only send in armor and arty that the Ukr are familiar with and trained to use. Not what they have in their inventory. SO, unless they buy up all the T-72s that India or some other countries can sell them, its not much they can do on that front. 2 week conversion courses on an M1 for Ukrainian tank crews, for example, is not going to heck it either. So, I don't know where this heavy weapons are going to come from to allow the Ukrainians to take the East back.

In either case, I have a suspicion that the West and in particular the US have a hidden agenda to bleed the Russians aka Vietnam war style. Make UKraine into Astan Part Deux for the Russians. Tie up a large chunk of the Russian military in a stalemate war and bleed them dry of men and equipment. At the same time, it panics the taxpayers of their respective countries into acqeuiscing to large military budgets, which makes their respective militaries happy

 

You are thinking of this year. If this goes on for longer, the Ukrainians can be trained in wahtever system they get, and the US is sending better stuff than what Yurrop is dumping, so you may be right that they may want to get Russia into a quagmire that gets them entertained for years and pulls them away from China.

Right now, the Ukranians are doing fine with their legacy systems and drones, plus the great ATGM/MANPAD dumps. And don't forget that every passing day, Russian economy goes deeper into the tank, although it could end up being a bad thing by itself (Russian Civil War with nukes!)

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

Russia has not mobilized either. And they still have thousands of tanks, trucks and APCs that can be used. They also have a functioning arms industry that can produce tanks, guns and rifles in huge numbers. 

It's not a question of equipment only, but of manpower. What's the existential threat to get compare to the Great Patriotic War? eventually this could be seen as a war that the Tsar got us into, like WW1.

[Ssnake]

46 minutes ago, On the way said:

Right now, the substantive hardware from the West in the form of tanks, attack helos, fast jets, armor, etc. is not coming and is not likely to come either.

I agree with that analysis, it's just that my emphasis is on those two tiny caveats there, "Right now" and "not likely". Dismissing possible developments just because they are unlikely opens the door for prediction error. We don't know if the morale of Russia's soldiers is as low as is being reported and might plummet further; if so, a lot more opportunities for counterattacks might arise. Just to give one example of a possible development where pundits then claim "it was unforeseeable" to explain why their predictions, once again, turned out to be wrong.

Or Russia might fix the supply issues and get the railways working again, and eventually overrun Ukraine after all, then face some sort of protracted insurgency. Or the insurgency collapses quicker than is currently believed. There's a huge space of possible developments that nobody can predict with confidence. Some degree humbleness in the face of the uncertainties of war are appropriate, is all I'm saying. If we have 50,000 predictions about the outcome of the war and one of them is correct, but we don't know which one, then all these predictions are useless.

Of course, someone out of the 50,000 will be lucky in the end and claim that "he knew it", but the reality is he "knew" it just like a lottery winner picking the winning numbers. Not a prophet, just a lucky fool.

59 minutes ago, On the way said:

In either case, I have a suspicion that the West and in particular the US have a hidden agenda to bleed the Russians aka Vietnam war style.

Well, aren't we in a sunny mood today. The way I see it, nobody forced Putin to invade, and if we have to have a war with Russia in the first place, I'd rather have this one than any other. But I also recognize that the tide may turn quickly; hopefully for the better, but the worse and the much worse are also distinct possibilities. I'd very much prefer if there was no war in Ukraine to begin with. But then again, it wasn't my decision, and I hope that in the end this war, if it must be fought, will serve as a lesson to future wannabe aggressors that the forces of democracy and freedom aren't as rotten and hollow as dictators like to think.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Well, that's what they are going to do now.

 

The Russians have said they were going to do a lot of things. Few of them as yet they seem to have managed.

[Josh]

A cease fire along some kind of partition line seems the most likely outcome now. I don’t think either side could make dramatic progress without a full mobilization and extensive reorganization effort, and UA would have the additional almost insurmountable problems of Ru air superiority bordering on supremacy.

[Daan]

2 hours ago, ink said:

Thanks, a guy at work said it had and I just wanted to check without having to scroll through tons of garbage.

Having left their shelters, these liberated civilians are then killed by the Russian army when trying to cook outdoors: Pic

Previously these citizens were mighty content with the facelift their city has been given by its liberators:

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Daan

[Daan]

Downed Su-30SM from March 5 and downed Mi-24/35 from unknown date:

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Daan

[ink]

25 minutes ago, Daan said:

Having left their shelters, these liberated civilians are then killed by the Russian army when trying to cook outdoors: Pic

Previously these citizens were mighty content with the facelift their city has been given by its liberators:

Um... that's truly terrible but why are you posting it as a reply to me?

[Adam Peter]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Just saw this and it made me think the Russians might need some smaller munitions for these kinds of targets.

I was on the other side of the horse regarding plane-delivered munition size

Looks like small munition exists.

29 minutes ago, Daan said:

Having left their shelters, these liberated civilians are then killed by the Russian army when trying to cook outdoors: Pic

How do you know they were Russians who killed them, and not your Azov friends, as ANNA states using the same picture?

Quote

Previously these citizens were mighty content with the facelift their city has been given by its liberators:

You have done it, didn't?

22 minutes ago, Daan said:

Downed Su-30SM from March 5 and downed Mi-24/35 from unknown date:

Other sources say Su-27P

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Next time don¡t clip the post. Yes, there will be a Ukraine and you will be wrong, as usual.

 I'll clip whatever I want. 

I said that if current trends were to  continue, Ukraine would not exist by the end of the year.  That does not mean that current trends will continue.  It means that Ukraine will have to negotiate to stop current trends.

[Yama]

Tochka fired on Severodonetsk: