Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

Weapons buy-back in Melitopol

https://t.me/yug_plazdarm/2442

[alejandro_]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

Wasn't this one originally supposed to be exported to Ethiopia? If so, how many were exported and how many were still in Ukraine in 2014 (IIRC contract was from 2011-12)?

Ethiopia acquired 215 T-72 in two variants, B and an upgraded version named UA1. In the latter the V-46/84 engine was replaced by a 5TDFMA-1 with more HP (1050 HP). The smaller volume allowed installation of a 10kW APU. Nozh bricks were installed in the tower. God know why they decided to operate two different variants... maybe it was getting harder for Ukrainian industry to get spares.

Pretty much of all T-72s had been delivered by 2014:

2011: 72
2012: 99
2013: 29
2014: 11
2015: 4
https://www.dsecu.gov.ua/ua/obsiagy-peredach-ozbroyen

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_EwSzVC8nkI/VAilAVNI-jI/AAAAAAAAFYg/4jTRlr1Ompc/s1600/gi-7216-34716-big.jpg

T-72AMT changes can be seen in the image below. New TKN-3UM sight for commander, V-84 engine instead of V-46 (still mid 1980s variant), T-64BV machine gun module, new radios/communications, Nozh armour. Vietnam was offered this variant, together with T-72MS White Eagle and brand new T-90. The latter was selected.

[Roman Alymov]

Destroyed pro-Ukr T-64 with personal name "Skif", reportedly next to simmilar tank with name "Tur"

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/32349

[Josh]

.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Josh

[Sardaukar]

1 hour ago, bojan said:

Ah, like Italians sending Breda 1930 to Finland in 1939...  

They sent even worse... Carcano m91/38 rifles.. They were universally hated. Amusingly, US collectors in 50's bought most of 74 000 Finland sold abroad after war.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Sardaukar

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Dark_Falcon]

5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

Correction:

 

[Gromit]

The reversing speed on the T series tanks is awful!

Edited March 14, 2022 by Gromit

[Roman Alymov]

Back to what happened today in Donetsk
Yes it obviously was Tochka-U strike aimed at central square of the city, in front of regional administration building

 

Initially it was believed to be isolated act of pointless terror, like desperate Tochka-U commander/crew decided to put his weapon in use last time against “separatists” before blowing TEL and retreating, and choosing the only aim point he was able to find on the map without access to intelligence data.
But seems like the story is more complex than that: Day or two prior to incident, messages calling the wives and mothers of mobilized DNR citizens to come to central square to ask for more information about their husbands were pushed into female-oriented chats  (examples below)
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/32311
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/32361
Note the time of planned event – 12-00, so the strike was exactly 30 minutes prior to planned time, when crowd was expected to start to gather on the square but before authorities could disperse it or take any other steps.
       So we see coordinated operation of state level (as inforwar guys are definitely not in trenches near Donetsk, but hundreds of miles away in Kiev).  The plan was obviously to kill as many “army wives” as possible (if not intercepted, cluster Tochka-U is creating 500-m wide kill zone). 
Why it was needed? We could safely rule out reasons like “Nazis wanted to kill as many people as possible” (it is much easier to do it by targeting street markets, as they do from time to time) – then the only reason coming to my conspiracy-oriented mind is following:
     Now the main problem of pro-Ukrainian high command and their Western advisors is how to prevent the most well-armed and capable units, concentrated on old frontline between Donetsk and Lugansk (estimated number from 50k to 85k, with heavy armament, on fortified positions and with big stock of ammunition prepared for planned spring offensive)  from capitulating when encircled. They  need this troops to fight to last men, despite of repeated appeals of their comrades already captured to surrender and join them in relatively comfortable conditions of Russian captivity and prospects to go back to families later.  So seems like the plan was to stop DNR troops, mostly adult family men,  taking POWs. And the shortest way to do this was to kill as many of their wives…… 

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 minutes ago, Dark_Falcon said:

Correction:

 

They are in an urban area. How it should work is Infantry clear the way, and the tanks support. This is probably why they are taking so many losses to RPG.I

 

On a lighter note...

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Dark_Falcon]

11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Back to what happened today in Donetsk
Yes it obviously was Tochka-U strike aimed at central square of the city, in front of regional administration building

 

Initially it was believed to be isolated act of pointless terror, like desperate Tochka-U commander/crew decided to put his weapon in use last time against “separatists” before blowing TEL and retreating, and choosing the only aim point he was able to find on the map without access to intelligence data.
But seems like the story is more complex than that: Day or two prior to incident, messages calling the wives and mothers of mobilized DNR citizens to come to central square to ask for more information about their husbands were pushed into female-oriented chats  (examples below)
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/32311
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/32361
Note the time of planned event – 12-00, so the strike was exactly 30 minutes prior to planned time, when crowd was expected to start to gather on the square but before authorities could disperse it or take any other steps.
       So we see coordinated operation of state level (as inforwar guys are definitely not in trenches near Donetsk, but hundreds of miles away in Kiev).  The plan was obviously to kill as many “army wives” as possible (if not intercepted, cluster Tochka-U is creating 500-m wide kill zone). 
Why it was needed? We could safely rule out reasons like “Nazis wanted to kill as many people as possible” (it is much easier to do it by targeting street markets, as they do from time to time) – then the only reason coming to my conspiracy-oriented mind is following:
     Now the main problem of pro-Ukrainian high command and their Western advisors is how to prevent the most well-armed and capable units, concentrated on old frontline between Donetsk and Lugansk (estimated number from 50k to 85k, with heavy armament, on fortified positions and with big stock of ammunition prepared for planned spring offensive)  from capitulating when encircled. They  need this troops to fight to last men, despite of repeated appeals of their comrades already captured to surrender and join them in relatively comfortable conditions of Russian captivity and prospects to go back to families later.  So seems like the plan was to stop DNR troops, mostly adult family men,  taking POWs. And the shortest way to do this was to kill as many of their wives…… 

Other possibility: A unitary warhead was unavailable or one was ordered to be used but the launching battery goofed up.  Either way, this missile firing was in my opinion a stupid mistake.

[Laser Shark]

Edit: Stefan already posted this video.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Laser Shark

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

They cant use that port even now. RUS navy has total control what enters in it or not. I cant think anything that RUS would get spending forces there, when they can literally win using same forces to destroy UKR forces east and by doing so freeing even more RUS forces.

You might be right if we're talking of operations in the next few weeks.   The other big advantage of not attacking Odessa soon is that the Ukrainians can't use a war zone as an excuse to keep Chinese inspectors out of the city.  (That the Chinese, of all people, would express concern about activities in a lab has to be the height of hypocrisy, yet, here we are). 

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Dark_Falcon said:

Appropriate US answer: "You first." Ukraine doesn't have a virology lab that is credibly theorized as starting a pandemic.

So now China has a wedge issue to start supplying Russia with aid, if this is the route desired by Xi.

Edited March 14, 2022 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

There also seems to have been some landing of troops, it another video I've seen has any reality to it.

[crazyinsane105]

3 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/13/politics/jake-sullivan-meeting-chinese-counterpart-ukraine/index.html

There was an interview with a guy from the US Center for Naval Analyses last Wednesday in which he suggested that at current attritition rates, the invading Russian forces would become combat ineffective in three to four weeks. That might be overly optimistic make-belief; for starters you'd have to ask whether the Ukrainians, who may be suffering the same attrition in a smaller force if you go by the aforementioned modificator of their claims, won't get to that point first. Still, just assuming he's broadly correct the reported greater flexibility of Russia in negotiations makes sense as you need to calculate the time needed to withdraw your troops while they're still funcional, or else gamble that Ukraine throws in the towel before they break down in place.

Regardless of the exact outcome, the greater damage to Russia is already done. The current sanctions will in all likelihood stay in place as long as its troops remain on Ukrainian territory; at this point I wouldn't even rule out that to include the original rebel-held territories, though they might drop to the previous level for "just" holding on to Crimea. Either way, Russia is going to lose the European energy market on general security considerations. By current plans, Germany will be fully replacing Russian coal imports by fall, and Russian oil "mostly" by the end of the year. Gas will take longer, maybe up to five years; but unless Russia magically transforms into a reliable Jeffersonian democracy in that timeframe, it will happen.

On the same reasoning, NATO will keep rearming (themselves and whatever is left if Ukraine) as long as the Putin system continues, in case he or a successor from the same mold gets a bug up his ass again. The NATO-Russia Founding Act is dead for all practical purposes, as Russia has demonstrated beyond any doubt that "the current security situation" has changed. There is already planning for not just a significantly increased, but permanent NATO presence in Eastern Europe, doing away with the fiction of rotational deployments. Within the EU, Putin (and Xi) buddies like Orban will feel the heat to get in line (ironically, so will the PiS of Poland; if they want their allies to support them against Russia, they better stop emulating the latter's way of eroding democratic checks and balances).

Overall, great job Vlad.

One point I want to talk about (rest of the post, I generally agree)…

The same intel folks were saying that Kiev would fall in a few days, 3-4. And there seemed to be a general consensus among many in the West that this was the case. Obviously this has changed quite a bit, and it’s rather unclear if Kiev will even be encircled (I haven’t come across the number of men that Russia has deployed specifically to Kiev, but in order to encircle a 50 mile perimeter around the city, that requires a LOT of men and drones). 
 

To hear that Russian forces will be combat ineffective in two to four weeks, I am having my doubts. Around Kiev? Sure, I can see that. In the East and parts of the South? No, I see them as being much more effective in this regions. That’s just me personally, as I’m just starting to doubt a lot of what is being thought of in the next two to four weeks. 
 

On a side note, I do believe if the Russians just kept the invasion limited to just eastern Ukraine and Mariupol and Kherson, this would have been significantly more effective and possibly over by now. Opening a front in the north and trying to take Kharkov and Kiev was just a dumb move and has caused the Russians to become very well overstretched, and although they aren’t necessarily stuck in the North, they sure as hell are taking a bad beating on a near daily basis. Really dumb move to do that IMO

[glenn239]

32 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Back to what happened today in Donetsk
Yes it obviously was Tochka-U strike aimed at central square of the city, in front of regional administration building

Why did Russian air defense drop the ball on missile defense in this region?  

Edited March 14, 2022 by glenn239

[bfng3569]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

That BMP-1 looked dead already?

ouch for the people standing behind it though.

[glenn239]

3 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

On a side note, I do believe if the Russians just kept the invasion limited to just eastern Ukraine and Mariupol and Kherson, this would have been significantly more effective and possibly over by now. Opening a front in the north and trying to take Kharkov and Kiev was just a dumb move and has caused the Russians to become very well overstretched, and although they aren’t necessarily stuck in the North, they sure as hell are taking a bad beating on a near daily basis. Really dumb move to do that IMO

I think the Ukrainians have diverted many resources to protecting the flanks of the capital, resources that otherwise would be fighting on other fronts. 

[Simon Tan]

 

[Junior FO]

...

Edited September 22 by Junior FO

[bfng3569]

46 minutes ago, Dark_Falcon said:

Correction:

 

funny, but the Z's painted on that tank look about as crude as the ones supposedly being painted on by UKR to fake kills or captures. 

[Perun]

Missile fired on Donetsk center, 20 people died

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20223141224-v1CkF.html/player/

[Yama]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Weapons buy-back in Melitopol

https://t.me/yug_plazdarm/2442

That banknote looks fresh out of printer....I would demand Euros  or maybe RMB is safer in present world situation.