Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im sure the Ukrainian Army really wanted for the past 8 years to attack and take its stolen territory back. But ultimately, they didnt. By Romans narrative they only chose after 8 years, with no appreciably newer equipment, to attack, but only after the Russians had predeployed to annex Ukraine.

Wrong, Ukraine started massing troops much earlier. And no doubt they were convinced that Western threats would majke Russian leadership to fold and leave Donbass without help (frankly, many of us here in Russia expected the same as we know this people on own experience).

[jaro]

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

To be fair, the Poles kicked Stalin and Tukhachevsky's ass in 1920. And the Soviets were far better organized than this shitshow.

 Stalin was a mobster, not a military commander... of course he failed, because he followed own goals and left Tuchachevsky unsupported...

Edited March 1, 2022 by jaro

[jaro]

1 minute ago, Roman Alymov said:

Wrong, Ukraine started massing troops much earlier. And no doubt they were convinced that Western threats would majke Russian leadership to fold and leave Donbass without help (frankly, many of us here in Russia expected the same as we know this people on own experience).

 thats a complete bullshit.. If they wanted to attack, they would fortify their border first.. especially there, where they knew Russians are.. like the northern approach from Belarus... but no such preparations were made and they even played down American info that Russians will attack soon....  If they were about to attack, they would have their reservists ready...

[Roman Alymov]

Russian bloggers are getting proposals from unnamed NGOs to become "official ambassadors" and urge subscribers to protests "against war in Ukraine"  - for small emount of money

[KV7]

5 hours ago, sunday said:

There is an answer that addresses some of the questions raised

https://forums.sufficientvelocity.com/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022.88943/page-288?post=23237016#post-23237016

Yes, in case it was not clear, I was not necessarily endorsing the prior commentary.

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, jaro said:

 Stalin was a mobster, not a military commander... of course he failed, because he followed own goals and left Tuchachevsky unsupported...

Budyonny and Trotsky were higher in command than Stalin in that war.

[jaro]

look how ordinary people welcome their "liberators"

 

 

[jaro]

Just now, sunday said:

Budyonny and Trotsky were higher in command than Stalin in that war.

 yes, but he was on the south, and could have prevented that counter-attack from succeeding.. instead he decided to stay put, and murder some locals..

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, jaro said:

 thats a complete bullshit.. If they wanted to attack, they would fortify their border first.. especially there, where they knew Russians are.. like the northern approach from Belarus... but no such preparations were made and they even played down American info that Russians will attack soon....  If they were about to attack, they would have their reservists ready...

Let me remind you that officially they did fortified their border years ago, in expencive state-funded program. But in reality the money were just stolen - while PM Yatsenuk became USD billionair in just one year. It is how Ukraine  works

 

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Yes, in case it was not clear, I was not necessarily endorsing the prior commentary.

Never thought you were. It was a valuable contribution to the thread, I think.

[jaro]

2 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Let me remind you that officially they did fortified their border years ago, in expencive state-funded program. But in reality the money were just stolen - while PM Yatsenuk became USD billionair in just one year. It is how Ukraine  works

 

 look who's talking about billionaires stealing money.... Oligarchs..  you invented it, Roman...

Edited March 1, 2022 by jaro

[sunday]

Just now, jaro said:

 look who's talking about billionaires stealing money.... Oligarchs..  you invented it, Roman...

Are you stating that Roman is an oligarch?

He should be the poorest oligarch ever!

[jaro]

1 minute ago, sunday said:

Are you stating that Roman is an oligarch?

He should be the poorest oligarch ever!

no, its Russia where term Oligarch started... they perfected it and now blame Ukrainians to have some as well...

 

anyway, on economic front:

 

 

[sunday]

Just now, jaro said:

no, its Russia where term Oligarch started... they perfected it and now blame Ukrainians to have some as well...

 

anyway, on economic front:

 

 

So, your latest theory is that there could not be Ukrainian oligarchs because there are Russian ones?

Remarkable logic.

[KV7]

36 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

That you said 'if' says a very great deal. Last we you probably wouldnt have had a doubt. Neither to be fair would I.

Well we have Ukraine formally apply for joining the EU. And the EU, for all its problems, is really quite good at helping resolve shatter economies. Easern Europe is prove of that.

Ultimately Roman, you are terrified that the EU will make a success of this economy. I imagine you probably share that with British Tories.

 

The middle point is not really correct. The econometrics usually shows that for the weaker economies, and especially weaker industrial economies, the EMU slows growth, likely by imposing a strong currency which makes exports noncompetitive and removes the ability to use monetary policy to adjust to local shocks.

In fact this sort of dynamic was even in play for Sweden, who left the pre-EMU process on account of the required strong currency policy causing a very severe financial and banking crisis which more or less permanently lowered their output trajectory.

Cerra, Valerie, and Sweta C. Saxena. 2005. “Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?” IMF working paper WP/05/29. IMF Working Papers. IMF. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=680924.

Edited March 1, 2022 by KV7

[jaro]

3 minutes ago, sunday said:

So, your latest theory is that there could not be Ukrainian oligarchs because there are Russian ones?

Remarkable logic.

you like twisting my words arent you...  NO, im saying that they blame Ukraine for something, they have plenty of at home...

[alejandro_]

11 minutes ago, sunday said:

Budyonny and Trotsky were higher in command than Stalin in that war.

Let's not forget Stalin's feud with Tukhachevsky following failure to capture Warsaw.

[jaro]

5 minutes ago, KV7 said:

The middle point is not really correct. The econometrics usually shows that for the weaker economies, and especially weaker industrial economies, the EMU slows growth, likely by imposing a strong currency which makes exports noncompetitive and removes the ability to use monetary policy to adjust to local shocks.

In fact this sort of dynamic was even in play for Sweden, who left the pre-EMU process on account of the required strong currency policy causing a very severe financial and banking crisis which more or less permanently lowered their output trajectory.

Cerra, Valerie, and Sweta C. Saxena. 2005. “Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?” IMF working paper WP/05/29. IMF Working Papers. IMF. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=680924.

 Actually, not all EU members use Euro currency... Poles are not using it, as well as Czech.. and there are others... and you need to fulfill quite strict rules to be able to apply for Euro.. believe me, i know.. Slovakia applied for it, and it was quite harsh...  which was if you ask me quite discouraging, considering Greece and other EU members who did not had to fulfill such rules...

Edited March 1, 2022 by jaro

[sunday]

Just now, jaro said:

you like twisting my words arent you...  NO, im saying that they blame Ukraine for something, they have plenty of at home...

So Russian oligarchs stole the Ukrainian fortification funds, then? 

Because if those funds were stolen by Ukrainian ones, then Roman could be right.

[jaro]

2 minutes ago, sunday said:

So Russian oligarchs stole the Ukrainian fortification funds, then? 

Because if those funds were stolen by Ukrainian ones, then Roman could be right.

why do i bother with you??? (off you go on ignore list)

Edited March 1, 2022 by jaro

[sunday]

1 minute ago, alejandro_ said:

Let's not forget Stalin's feud with Tukhachevsky following failure to capture Warsaw.

Anyway, that was mainly a Lenin/Trotsky show.

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, jaro said:

you like twisting my words arent you...  NO, im saying that they blame Ukraine for something, they have plenty of at home...

Blaming? How could i blame Ukrainian oligarhs and politicians (Yatsenuk was not oligarch) for stealing money that were dedicated for preparing for war with Russia.... Probably they even deserve some sort of gratitude from me.

What i said was pointing out officially Ukraine was well prepared for war and even expected it to be victorious. 

[KV7]

3 minutes ago, jaro said:

 Actually, not all EU members use Euro currency... Poles are not using it, as well as Czech.. and there are others... and you need to fulfill quite strict rules to be able to apply for Euro.. believe me, i know.. Slovakia applied for it, and it was quite harsh...  which was if you ask me quite discouraging, considering Greece and other EU members who did not had to fulfill such rules...

Yes, I am well aware.

EU entry by itself is not such a problem, though there may be difficulty with some sorts of industrial policy. It is the EMU that is the big potential problem. But fair enough, Ukrainian entry into the EMU is way off.

[sunday]

No point.

Edited March 1, 2022 by sunday

[jaro]

9 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Blaming? How could i blame Ukrainian oligarhs and politicians (Yatsenuk was not oligarch) for stealing money that were dedicated for preparing for war with Russia.... Probably they even deserve some sort of gratitude from me.

What i said was pointing out officially Ukraine was well prepared for war and even expected it to be victorious. 

 Do you even hear yoursef? Do you really think Zelenskyi would want to attack Russia, when he knew that their border defenses are not there because money were stolen??  Does it even make sense to you??? Every single thing says, Ukrainians didnt expected to be attacked, and they didnt expected to go into full blown conflict... Zelenskyi even ordered units on Donbas to not reply on separatist provocation fire the entire time... they had to come with made up stories about bomb attacks, which were easily refuted (like that car? cmon, moving registration table from one car and putting it on old UAZ.. you really thought you could convince somebody with that???)