Kiev Is Burning

[X-Files]

No mags in the rifles, but...

[Yalmuk]

No mags, but.....

[BansheeOne]

Situation is somewhat muddled. Apparently two different airports were temporarily occupied: Simferopol International, where the pictures are coming from, but the occupiers reportedly have since withdrawn; and the military airfield of Sevastopol, where the following shot is supposed to have been taken:

 

 

The head of the Ukrainian National Security Council just stated that several other similar actions had been prevented, and that all airports are now again unter Kiev's "factual" control though "the invaders have installed checkpoints on the approach roads" - make of that what you will.

Edited February 28, 2014 by BansheeOne

[Marek Tucan]

Primary target is to stop Ukrainian troops getting in, not NATO/EU or vaunted UN Invasion Occupation Illuminatis

[X-Files]

 

Could it just be limited moves to stop the West or Nato flying in any troops?

 

Our Wesley Clark is now retired and they took away his adult privileges to command troops, so I think Moscow's Legions are fairly safe from US forces.

 

The key word is 'fighters' - the Kremlin doesn't want those Islamic shit-stirrers flying into Sevastopol.

[swerve]

Quite possibly, though the Russians at Sevastopol deny having anything to do with it. However, as they deny sending any helicopters, or indeed any Soldiers at all, that perhaps can and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

Could it just be limited moves to stop the West or Nato flying in any troops? They really couldnt be THAT paranoid could they? I mean, if they were going to land large amount of troops, it would presumably already ahve been done. It looks like they are just trying to lock everything down and wait to see what happens.

A Russian on another forum thinks it's probably to stop the Ukrainian government flying in troops. Crimea is almost an island, & to get to the isthmus connecting it to the rest of the country you have to cross a region with a large Russian minority, so flying troops in would probably be the preferred option - if the airports weren't controlled by armed Russians.

 

Could be a replay of S. Ossetia. 'Protect' the local majority, having given them Russian passports. I can see it being practical for Russia to effectively annex Crimea (while pretending it's a locally-run region of Ukraine) without touching the rest of the country, because of Its geographical separation & Russian majority.

 

Invading the rest of Ukraine would be a very different proposition.

[X-Files]

 

 

 

Could it just be limited moves to stop the West or Nato flying in any troops?

 

Our Wesley Clark is now retired and they took away his adult privileges to command troops, so I think Moscow's Legions are fairly safe from US forces.

 

The key word is 'fighters' - the Kremlin doesn't want those Islamic shit-stirrers flying into Sevastopol.

 

 

You know, its funny I was thinking exactly the same thing a few moments ago.

 

Or maybe they just dont want any more Tartars or Journalists flying in?

 

 

Or this is the Russian version of Wesley Clark, where some Admiral at Sevastopol took "secure your positions" to mean "take the International airport".

[Yalmuk]

 

Primary target is to stop Ukrainian troops getting in, not NATO/EU or vaunted UN Invasion Occupation Illuminatis

 

Black Helicopters are on the way Marek, If you have a bad back I hear waterboarding is great for it.

 

8 Helicopters are on the ground at Sevastapol airport. How many bods can you get in the back of a Mil17?

Video footage according to the youtube post is of the outskirts of Belbek. So perhaps that indicates 3 airports occupied. I shall have to start looking out my old Flanker2 maps.

 

 

Mi-24's not Mi-17's.

[swerve]

 

As for out-competing countries within the Euro zone, I'll tell you a story from 1979. I had a temporary post-school job in the QC lab of a soft drink bottling plant. The bottling line was German made. I asked the head of production why they'd bought German. Were they cheaper than British manufacturers (which existed then, & I knew it)? "No", he said. The German machinery was much more expensive - & no wonder, with German wages, which were much higher then than in the UK. But the German line was far more reliable, & when it did need repair, the Germans would fly in whoever was needed, on weekends, public holidays, whatever, & fix it damn quick. Their British competitors would send someone eventually, but it'd take much longer, not least because their support staff were constantly busy, while the Germans always had someone free who could be sent straight away. The reliability & service meant that production interruptions were very rare, & very short, & that meant that even at twice the price of British machines (& the difference wasn't that much), it would be better value. Losing production cost more than paying more for machines & service.

 

See?

Yea, but it's no longer 1979. Today your manager would be fired for not cutting the costs by ordering the cheapest, the bottling would be outsourced to Myanmar and the execs would cash a nice bonus from subsesquent stock price rise.

Nope. Because the economics of bottling & shipping haven't changed enough. Still low-value high weight product (mostly water) so not worth shipping far (soft drinks are still almost all bottled as close to the consumers as possible), & still costs more to lose production than you save by using unreliable machinery.

 

That was a successful firm using the best equipment available. I posted it to illustrate one of the reasons why German manufacturers mostly beat British manufacturers, before the Euro (which the UK has never been in). I can give other examples, e.g. the family-owned manufacturer of fork lift trucks & similar things, which had first-class products & a full order book (would have fitted nicely into the Mittelstand) which had to sell itself to a German competitor in 1988 because of a complete failure of forward planning (the German buyer wanted the products & workforce, & kept the factory running until 2009, when the slump killed it). Failures were mostly self-inflicted.

 

It's usually the same elsewhere (though I know, not always). Greek economic failure wasn't forced on it by Germany, it was carefully constructed by Greeks. Italy is in a mess because of things Italians have done, e.g. electing Berlusconi. Etc.

Edited February 28, 2014 by swerve

[BansheeOne]

Video footage according to the youtube post is of the outskirts of Belbek. So perhaps that indicates 3 airports occupied.

 

Far as I can see, Belbek is the name of the Sevastopol airport which seems to be dual civilian/military use.

[bojan]

No mags in the rifles, but...

When someone asked (very dumb) question why whole squad is given 7.62x54R belts to schlep instead of more ammo for their weapon, "cause you know more ammo for 8 rifles is more effective then more ammo for single MG" drill sergeant replied something like "If shit hits a fan, you with your rifles are making noise, MG is killing people".

[DKTanker]

 

Our Wesley Clark is now retired and they took away his adult privileges to command troops, so I think Moscow's Legions are fairly safe from US forces.

 

The key word is 'fighters' - the Kremlin doesn't want those Islamic shit-stirrers flying into Sevastopol.

 

MacArthur could have been itching to attack, but once the CinC gave tacit approval (don't cross that line, I mean it), there was no longer a US threat.

[X-Files]

Why Russia covets the Black Sea naval base of Sevastopol

Ukraine recently agreed to extend Russia's naval base lease for its Black Sea Fleet until 2042. One visit to Sevastopol, the port in Ukraine where the fleet is based, and it's immediately clear why Russia would be loathe to ever give up the base.

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Editorial-Board-Blog/2010/0519/Why-Russia-covets-the-Black-Sea-naval-base-of-Sevastopol

[swerve]

Yanukovych giving a press conference. Considers himself rightful President of Ukraine, and wants to keep the Crimea with the Ukraine. This is going to get interesting...

Yeah. What he wants is not necessarily what Putin wants.

 

There may also be Russians in positions to act who have their own agendas.

[Yama]

 

There is no chance for that happening, unless state of Ukraine itself suffers a catastrophic breakdown. Current situation of ethnically divided Ukraine is more preferable to Russia.

 

Unfortunately, the situation is potentially beyond Russian control. Russia has a doctrine where it defends the rights of Russians living in the neighbouring countries. Crimean separatists know this, and they know that if the Ukrainan government responds with force to their 'rebellion', it can be very difficult for Russia to not get involved.

There is no chance of what happening? The Crimea will be part of the new Russian Empire within weeks, if not days. Russia needs a port on the Black Sea and has the muscle power to ensure it happens. As for Odessa, perhaps not, but don't discount Russia using it as leverage to bring Ukraine tightly within the sphere of Russian influence.

 

Russia isn't going to conquer Crimea because it is much more advantageous for them for Crimea to stay Ukrainan and keep Ukraine divided, instead of more homogenized, antagonized Ukraine driven towards West. Russia already has ports on Black Sea - in fact their long term plan is to expand base in Novorossiysk and move the fleet there.

 

Russia would only move to Crimea if Ukraine suffers a breakdown of social order/full scale civil war. Which could happen, of course.

[BansheeOne]

There's a blurb on the wire that at least 20 Russian naval infantry have surrounded the Ukrainian Coast Guard station at the port of Balaclava, allegedly to prevent "extremists" from taking weapons from there. Shot of a Tarantul corvette patrolling the port entrance, which might be pretty routine though.

 

Edited February 28, 2014 by BansheeOne

[BansheeOne]

More pictures of that particular standoff.

 

 

[swerve]

 

... The Crimea will be part of the new Russian Empire within weeks, if not days. Russia needs a port on the Black Sea and has the muscle power to ensure it happens. As for Odessa, perhaps not, but don't discount Russia using it as leverage to bring Ukraine tightly within the sphere of Russian influence.

 

Russia isn't going to conquer Crimea because it is much more advantageous for them for Crimea to stay Ukrainan and keep Ukraine divided, instead of more homogenized, antagonized Ukraine driven towards West. Russia already has ports on Black Sea - in fact their long term plan is to expand base in Novorossiysk and move the fleet there.

Logical (Yanukovich et al certainly want Crimea inside Ukraine, because it's a solid vote bank for them), but I'm not completely sure everyone in Russia thinks the same way. An opportunity to take de facto control of Crimea might be too tempting.

 

Odessa's rather different. There's no way to isolate it from the rest of Ukraine. Crimea's almost an island, connected only by a narrow isthmus, & it's not as connected economically to the rest of the country as Odessa.

Edited February 28, 2014 by swerve

[Marcello]

 

Russia isn't going to conquer Crimea because it is much more advantageous for them for Crimea to stay Ukrainan and keep Ukraine divided, instead of more homogenized, antagonized Ukraine driven towards West. Russia already has ports on Black Sea - in fact their long term plan is to expand base in Novorossiysk and move the fleet there.

 

Well maybe they have got tired of playing tug of war over Ukraine every few years. Keep whatever they can reasonably get away with and chalk up the rest as loss.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Marcello

[Marek Tucan]

Il-76s reported landing in Simfernopol. Reportedly number of "volunteers" around the airport also increased and comm lines are disrupted. According to flightradar 24 commercial planes avoid Crimea now.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Marek Tucan

[BansheeOne]

The Ukrainians are talking of 13 aircraft delivering 2,000 troops, and that the airspace was closed.

 

I'm seeing BTRs on the airport access roads now. Where did those come from?

[X-Files]

 

The Ukrainians are talking of 13 aircraft delivering 2,000 troops, and that the airspace was closed.

 

I'm seeing BTRs on the airport access roads now. Where did those come from?

 

"Is regularly scheduled exercise. Not to worry."

 

 

 

Note: 3.23 mark, mud on bumper ID. Someone's practicing OPSEC.

Edited February 28, 2014 by X-Files

[rmgill]

I wonder why tell Obama doesn't Vladimir to wait until after the election, then he'll have more room...

[DKTanker]

I wonder why tell Obama doesn't Vladimir to wait until after the election, then he'll have more room...

Did you just hear his statement? He said that he spoke with Putin last week and agreed Russia should be part of the solution for Ukraine. Now he's all huffy about Russia moving troops into Crimea. First he give's tacit approval to do what they did, and now he's upset that they did it. No talk about a line being crossed.

Edited February 28, 2014 by DKTanker

[rmgill]

Looking around at the bay of Savastapol, I note that the various warships appear to be spread around the harbor and mixed in and among what appears to be civilian shipping.

Am I misidentifying the civilian shipping? Are the military auxiliaries? There looks to be a bunch of civilian light craft just north and south of a sub in some sort of dry dock even in Pivdenna bay even.