Simon Tan Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 We do not worry about details, just the narrative.
RETAC21 Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Simon Tan said: That is not at all the plan IMO. The cities are of no real value. They are as always blood baths favoring the defenders. Phase 1 which is udnerway is to isolate the Ukrainian Army east of the Dnepr. Then to destroy it in detail. The Kiev and Kharkov operations are to keep the attention of the Ukrainians and the media while the Ukranian Army dies quietly. I believe Phase 2 will be a second envelopment to the West of the Dnepr. Little has changed since Grozny or even Berlin. But eventually the cities have to be taken. I do not think we yet know what Vlad is aiming at. Taking Eastern Ukraine is still a big bit to chew, and one that needs to be supported logistically, there are no "Russians" to liberate in west Ukraine, and the destruction of the existing Ukrainian military would leave the Ukrainian government little choice but to "Finlandize" anyway, not speak aout the effects of the defeat. For all the joy and glee at destroyed Russian equipment and such, this is just the friction of war, so far the Russians have not been forced to retreat anywhere.
RETAC21 Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Will be significant when US aircraft start hitting Russian convoys, else is meaningless.
seahawk Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, RETAC21 said: But eventually the cities have to be taken. I do not think we yet know what Vlad is aiming at. Taking Eastern Ukraine is still a big bit to chew, and one that needs to be supported logistically, there are no "Russians" to liberate in west Ukraine, and the destruction of the existing Ukrainian military would leave the Ukrainian government little choice but to "Finlandize" anyway, not speak aout the effects of the defeat. For all the joy and glee at destroyed Russian equipment and such, this is just the friction of war, so far the Russians have not been forced to retreat anywhere. Losses are an integral part of their planing.
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Search for scapegoats has begun. Bet Shoigu keeps his job.
Simon Tan Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 In Western Ukraine the task is to inflict catastrophic losses on newly raised units.
jaro Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Search for scapegoats has begun. Bet Shoigu keeps his job. That's actually scary.. Gerasimov had some good friendly connections to US counterpart.. he was a key for de-escalation..
bojan Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Is it actually confirmed vs another twatter "bullshit as usual"?
sunday Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, bojan said: Is it actually confirmed vs another twatter "bullshit as usual"? Likely not. Edited February 28, 2022 by sunday
RETAC21 Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, seahawk said: Losses are an integral part of their planing. Have I said otherwise? losses are part of every military's planning, up until 1990, then the West decided wars needed not have own deaths...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, bojan said: Is it actually confirmed vs another twatter "bullshit as usual"? It's unconfirmed. I only give it credence because of the guy who posted it, Col Vindman.
RETAC21 Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Simon Tan said: In Western Ukraine the task is to inflict catastrophic losses on newly raised units. Newly raised, but equipped with what? Ukraine has been living off the Soviet arsenal, if that's gone, all that's left are AKs, javelins and LAWs. It wouldn't be an army, but a well organised militia.
RETAC21 Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 War clearly not going well for Ukraine: "Ukraine applies to EU with request for immediate accession under special procedure – Zelensky" https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/803736.html
Simon Tan Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Lies...lies...... Ukraine will be advancing on Crimea shortly.
sunday Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Brazil's Bolsonaro refuses to sanction Russia, says Ukrainians "trusted a comedian with the fate of a nation"
Simon Tan Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Actually a puppet. But at least now there is a Nikolayev once more, as Prince Potemkin intended.
Frisky Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 At least they're talking. Thats a good start https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/ukraine-russia-talks-due-to-begin-early-on-monday-live-news
jaro Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0612
jaro Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 guessing here - T72 pulverized.. what could have caused this..
Frisky Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) This looks like indiscriminatory artillery fire. If so Putin is committing war crimes Edited February 28, 2022 by Frisky
DavidDCM Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, jaro said: guessing here - T72 pulverized.. what could have caused this.. T-80 going by the roadwheel. This can be caused by anything that penetrates the armour and denotates the ammunition carousel.
sunday Posted February 28, 2022 Posted February 28, 2022 Another map, this time pro-Rus, with the situation as of 27/02 Quote Third, it appears that the operational cauldron which will entrap the entire Ukie force in the Donbass is in the process of being finalized. According to recent news, only about 100km separate the northern pincer from the southern one, and since Russian MRLS can reach much further, this means that the Ukie forces are already blocked by fire (meaning that while they still can break through, they will do that under constant Russian fire) and that the encirclement will be completed if not today, then by tomorrow. Take a look at this map: http://dxczjjuegupb.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Siutation-6pm-local-in-Donbass.jpg Quote What you see here is, in red, the advance of the Russian pincers from the north and the south. The think black line is the section of the front through which the Ukies can still run, but it is already under fire from both the north and the south. As soon the Russian force meet somewhere along that lack line, then the operational cauldron will be shut. The yellow line indicate the limits of that operational cauldron which will have about 10-12 Ukrainian BRIGADES entirely cut off and surrounded. By the way, the Nazi forces in Mariupol are also surrounded, but they decided to fight to their last breath, which would be fine by me if there was not a huge amount of civilians, including civilians herded into bunkers which, in reality, offer them no protection. The Russians could use a large FAE bomb to destroy the Nazis defenses in one strike, but the cost in human lives would be huge. It is possible that the Russians will have to liberate Mariupol the hard way: by sending in special urban assault teams, like what they did in Grozny during the 2nd Chechen war. If so, that will mean that the Russian command has decided to accept many more Russian casualties as a price to pay to save as many civilians as possible. What a horrible decision to have to make… As for Kiev, the Russians are concentrating forces all around the city, but are not moving in yet, to my great relief. Finally, Kharkov is being cleaned up by mopping up operations. Once that city is secure, there are rumors that some kind of government will be proclaimed there. Let’s wait and see.
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