Kiev Is Burning

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Gromit said:

They are handing out small arms, any form of AT or AA weapon needs training so they will be going to formed units I would suspect!

Here's a thought.  The GDP of a Ukrainian civilian averages 13,000 USD.  A Javelin missile is $80,000 USD.   That's six years of pay in one man-portable package.  You see where I'm going with my concern?  Sure, most Ukrainians are absolute patriots and will fight.  But give me 10 people and I will guarantee you that 2 or 3 of them are thinking more along the lines of the $80,000 than the shot at the Russian tank. 

So I ask again - what exactly is the vetting process for all these weapons we are handing out?  How much are the Russian offering for Javelins and other such kit  in cahs, no questions asked?

 

[Olof Larsson]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

When are you going to return Norrbotten to Finland? 

Never. We demand Finland as well. Because together we can rule the world again. Well or at least the Baltic...

[Laser Shark]

Michael Kofman's take (so far) on why the Russians seem to be doing poorly:

 

[Olof Larsson]

5 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Here's a thought.  The GDP of a Ukrainian civilian averages 13,000 USD.  A Javelin missile is $80,000 USD.   That's six years of pay in one man-portable package.  You see where I'm going with my concern?  Sure, most Ukrainians are absolute patriots and will fight.  But give me 10 people and I will guarantee you that 2 or 3 of them are thinking more along the lines of the $80,000 than the shot at the Russian tank. 

So I ask again - what exactly is the vetting process for all these weapons we are handing out?  How much are the Russian offering for Javelins and other such kit  in cahs, no questions asked?

 

What cash? Useless Rubels?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[P Lakowski]

4 hours ago, JWB said:

Will to fight. Those eastern regions are up to 90% Russian speaking and Ukrainians probably don't want that land. It is similar to how the Iraqis in in Baghdad didn't care about the northern parts of Iraq a decade ago because those areas are  90% Sunni and southern Iraq is 90% Shia.

i guess they might be used as a path way to deescalation?

[Olof Larsson]

1 hour ago, Manic Moran said:

Were Poland, Bulgaria or Slovakia planning on replacing their MiG-29s any time soon? Their retirement may have been advanced.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1498029493033881601/photo/1

Does any of then have Link 16 integrated? It wouldn't hurt being able to provide the Ukrainian pilots with real time data from AWACS, JSTARS and Global Hawk.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[P Lakowski]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

To expand on Sweden supplying.

Only AT4s, but perfectly good for killing APC's.

Good way of getting rid of old kit.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Yama said:

Nah. Russians know that if they play nice for a few years, in the West there will be new administrations and new leaders, who will forgot everything and things will go back to cordial etc.

Look how quickly almost everyone forgot the Georgian war despite very tough contemporary rhetoric. It was all smiles and silly reset buttons.

That...is a really good point.  In a year the US may well be in some crisis with the Chinese and all this will be yesterday's newspapers.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Olof Larsson said:

Considering how pitifully impotent the RusAF and russian missiles units has been at taking out Ukrainian airbases, I'm not overly worried.

I see no evidence that the Ukrainian air force is functional beyond Iraqi 1991 levels at the moment.

[sunday]

16 hours ago, sunday said:

This Institute for the Study of War looks like a bit pro-Ukr government.

They have identified elements of four Russian armies, 41st, 20th, and 58th Combined Arms and 1st Tank, plus a "2nd Tank Division". I have been unable to find anything about that 2nd Tank Division. Perhaps there is a mistake, and they wanted to refer to the 2nd Guards MRD "Taman", but I am not sure.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

 

New map for February 27th. No mention of the 2nd Tank Division, but more viewings of the 4th Guards Tank Division. I thought 2nd and 4th Guards Tank Divisions were tasked with the defense of Moscow.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27

[wilhelm]

2 hours ago, Dawes said:

Unless the EU is going to supply the pilots, support staff, logistics/training apparatus, etc., how is that going to work? That process normally takes years.

Don't upset the narrative with common sense.

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I see no evidence that the Ukrainian air force is functional beyond Iraqi 1991 levels at the moment.

It's still flying and fighting after 4 days. A fairly significant advance.

Boy, are they going to be disappointed when they find even third rate European powers have nuclear weapons...

[Yama]

14 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I see no evidence that the Ukrainian air force is functional beyond Iraqi 1991 levels at the moment.

They are flying sorties, but relatively few: Su-24 and -25 operations were mentioned in todays dispatch. However at least one Su-25 (maybe two) were lost.

[glenn239]

1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

It's still flying and fighting after 4 days. A fairly significant advance.

I saw the figure of 34 sorties yesterday, of which apparently the only productive result was two SU25's shot down (pilots killed) for some bridging equipment.  That's getting into Luftwaffe on June 7th at Normandy territory.

[jmsaari]

2 hours ago, Dawes said:

Unless the EU is going to supply the pilots, support staff, logistics/training apparatus, etc., how is that going to work? That process normally takes years.

I would imagine MiG-29s even if not identical to the UKR ones could be put to use in relatively short order with just the aircraft themselves, weapons, spares and ground equipment being transferred. If Bulgaria wishes to part with its Su-25s, the same. Polish Su-22, maybe also feasible. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I saw the figure of 34 sorties yesterday, of which apparently the only productive result was two SU25's shot down (pilots killed) for some bridging equipment.  That's getting into Luftwaffe on June 7th at Normandy territory.

After the first day of Desert Storm, the only flying the Iraqis did was run away. 

where did you get that figure from?

[futon]

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to hold talks at a venue near the Belarusian border, as Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said his country will “not give up a single inch of … territory”.

The talks, the first since Russia unleashed a full-scale invasion of Ukraine last week, would be held without preconditions and are the result of a phone call between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Belarusian counterpart, the Ukrainian leader said.

“We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,” he said in a statement.

Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, reporting from Moscow, said there was “some confusion” about where the Ukraine-Russia talks will take place.

“The Ukrainians are saying these talks will be held near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, but according to the Russians, they believe, still, that the talks will take place in the southeastern city of Gomel in Belarus,” she said.

The Ukrainian foreign minister in a televised speech on Sunday said his country will “not give up a single inch of … territory” after agreeing to talks with Moscow.

“We go there [to the talks] to listen to what Russia wants to say, we are going without any … preliminary agreement on what the outcome of these talks can be. We are going there to listen and to say what we think of this war and Russia’s actions,” Kuleba said.

“Between now and the moment that the talks are wrapped up, [Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko assured President Zelenskyy that no Belarusian military force will be used against Ukraine,” he added.

“We can only hope that Lukashenko will stick to his word. And between now and the moment when these talks are wrapped up, we will continue to fiercely defend our country, to defeat Russian forces if they try to continue their offensive operations.”

Al Jazeera’s Andrew Simmons, reporting from Lviv in western Ukraine, said the reportedly agreed talks were a positive sign but far from a breakthrough.

“The Ukrainians seem to be very wary of the talks agreed on. They say they will go along to listen to Russia on what it has to offer,” he said.

He added that the Ukrainian government would not want to hear anything related to surrendering if Moscow is only prepared to make such an offer.

Zelenskyy previously rejected Belarus, an ally of Moscow which used Belarus as a staging ground for its multipronged invasion, as a location for potential talks.

Speaking in Russian in a video message on Sunday, Zelenskyy listed the cities of Warsaw, Bratislava, Istanbul, Budapest or Baku as possible alternative venues.

...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/ukraine-russia-agree-to-talks-without-preconditions-zelenskiyy

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

After the first day of Desert Storm, the only flying the Iraqis did was run away. 

where did you get that figure from?

They are Russians, not Iraqis, and are based on massive infrastructire and equipment stocks left by USSR, on the territory half-continent wide - while Russian Army is taking all measures possible to reduce the number of casualties. Seems to me Russian command is gradually increasing the intencity of operations waiting for pro-Ukrainians to surrender (not sure it is good tactics).

  From my Facebook feed (2 days old and Yandex-translated, sorry for quality)

In fact, it seems to me that neither British analysts nor even the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine understand that the Russian army is not even fighting at half strength right now.
In order to avoid unnecessary casualties, aviation does not strike at the Ukr Army barracks. Has anyone noticed that bombers were used en masse? No?
And this is not because they are not in the troops.
But because the FAB 500 is a powerful thing, but not completely manageable. And not at all high-precision. And all the work of the VKS now mostly comes down to the use of precision weapons. Well, and the use of helicopters.
Landing in Odessa is not a problem for the Black Sea Fleet at all. The operation is for two or three days. But these are urban battles and again civilian casualties. Yes, and Ukr Army. And the army of Ukraine is more than half made up of completely Russian people. Who, yes, consider Ukraine their homeland, have sworn allegiance to it, are sometimes ready to fight for it, even if they do not agree with the policy of the authorities. It's very Russian, by the way.
And if there is an opportunity for Russian people not to die, it is necessary to use it.
And let's note that in the east of Ukraine, in Kharkiv and Sumy, we see quite serious resistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Again, because these are essentially Russian people with Ukrainian passports. Maybe they hate it
Zelensky, but something inside, something Russian, prevents him from laying down his arms. Although they persistently call themselves Ukrainians. And they even actively pretend that they have dreamed of singing about "Bandera our father" all their lives.
However, one should not think that the Russian military leadership will constantly show gentleness and leniency. If the operational and tactical situation requires, there will be tougher actions. Very tough.
However, even so, the tanks of the Russian army are already near Kiev. And the paratroopers held the airfield. Meanwhile, the operation is going on for less than two days.

[TonyE]

15 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

where did you get that figure from?

It was quoted from ukrainian MOD on saturday.

[Yama]

16 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

After the first day of Desert Storm, the only flying the Iraqis did was run away. 

Incorrect, they flew offensive sorties weeks afterwards, tried to bomb Saudi refinery etc. Very little success, however.

[Yama]

21 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

I would imagine MiG-29s even if not identical to the UKR ones could be put to use in relatively short order with just the aircraft themselves, weapons, spares and ground equipment being transferred. If Bulgaria wishes to part with its Su-25s, the same. Polish Su-22, maybe also feasible. 

NATO MiG-29's are however early generation examples with only modest modernization, and weak BVR missiles. Their combat value is pretty low. Su-25 I see a possibility, Su-22 not so much. According to Wikipedia, Ukraine retired Su-17 already in 2004.

Polish Su-22's are basically kept around as an excuse to maintain extra squadron before F-35 arrives.

[Laser Shark]

10 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

They are Russians, not Iraqis, and are based on massive infrastructire and equipment stocks left by USSR, on the territory half-continent wide - while Russian Army is taking all measures possible to reduce the number of casualties. Seems to me Russian command is gradually increasing the intencity of operations waiting for pro-Ukrainians to surrender (not sure it is good tactics).

They are as Russian as I’m Swedish or Danish i.e. not at all because I don’t (and never will) see myself as anything but Norwegian and most of the world - including, thankfully, the Swedes and the Danes themselves because they aren't total assholes - seem to respect that.

 

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, Laser Shark said:

They are as Russian as I’m Swedish or Danish i.e. not at all because I don’t (and never will) see myself as anything but Norwegian and most of the world - including, thankfully, the Swedes and the Danes themselves because they aren't total assholes - seem to respect that.

It is up to you. At least one my distant relative is now in Ukrainian Army.