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Kiev Is Burning


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1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

Looks to me like the basic Russian calculation is that they can get by without relations with Europe or the United States.  

Yes, of course they can.. as Chinese Client State... completely dependent on them... way to go Russia! you just became North Korea II 

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1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

Looks to me like the basic Russian calculation is that they can get by without relations with Europe or the United States.  

He may want to have a look at the ecomomy and reappraise the situation!

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4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Not a mark on them, so I doubt Azov had anything to do with it, other than finding them abandoned.

This is a collapse in morale, or so it looks.

 

Or, the logistics trains are simply not getting to them, leaving them without ammo , food , water and fuel!

 

Which begs the question are Ukrainan infantry operating against the supply lines, a lot of the columns seen destroyed are REMF's

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42 minutes ago, wilhelm said:

It's fairly obvious what Russia's plan was.

A "light" mobile flying column type overthrow.

The trope of a quick overthrow is a Western narrative.  It's complete nonsense.

The initial moves to me look like they were caused by a need to cut off the eastern Ukrainian forces and thrust the AD defense zone forward to prevent drone and air attack.  Posters that talk of massed flying columns might be thinking of a war in Ukraine back in 1943 more than this one.

I don't think the Russians will assault Kiev.  I think they'll just invest it and use the 6,000 tons of supplies it requires every day as a card in negotiations.

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1 minute ago, Gromit said:

Or, the logistics trains are simply not getting to them, leaving them without ammo , food , water and fuel!

 

Which begs the question are Ukrainan infantry operating against the supply lines, a lot of the columns seen destroyed are REMF's

Yes, it might be stay behind parties. Or possibly the drones.

There has been much talk about Russia's superior EW capabilities. How is it possible drones are still operable in such conditions? Where is the Ruaf?

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1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

The trope of a quick overthrow is a Western narrative.  It's complete nonsense.

The initial moves to me look like they were caused by a need to cut off the eastern Ukrainian forces and thrust the AD defense zone forward to prevent drone and air attack.  Posters that talk of massed flying columns might be thinking of a war in Ukraine back in 1943 more than this one.

I don't think the Russians will assault Kiev.  I think they'll just invest it and use the 6,000 tons of supplies it requires every day as a card in negotiations.

The forces "Investing" would also need supplying and right now the logistics of the Russians are not showing any kind of ability to keep a huge force surrounding a city supplied!

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4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, it might be stay behind parties. Or possibly the drones.

There has been much talk about Russia's superior EW capabilities. How is it possible drones are still operable in such conditions? Where is the Ruaf?

I think that's the problem with having such a limited information space - we're not seeing any RuAF activity because it's not in anyone's interest to post about it.

In Syria they showed they were capable of maintaining an ok-ish sortie rate. Hard to imagine they're just sitting by here.

 

EDIT: I haven't followed events as closely as some of you but I can safely say the number of videos showing RuAF activity that I've seen is essentially zero. Yet there must be Ukrainians somewhere who're catching hell.

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Easy for Ukrainian dismounts to stay sheltered in the soft ground that the armor is bypassing for speed and not wanting to get stuck. Then when clear combat elements are past and the supply vehicles start to appear, that's when you move forwards and setup ambushes.  Or you could have dudes just plotting artillery missions for Ukrainian Army on those same points. 

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1 minute ago, rmgill said:

Easy for Ukrainian dismounts to stay sheltered in the soft ground that the armor is bypassing for speed and not wanting to get stuck. Then when clear combat elements are past and the supply vehicles start to appear, that's when you move forwards and setup ambushes.  Or you could have dudes just plotting artillery missions for Ukrainian Army on those same points. 

The video posted by stephan earlier showed a remote operated camera in the village, that's pretty much the ultimate artillery observer!

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No, that's not what I mean. There are 3 A50s flying out of Belarus. How are any Drones still flying, when they clearly completely outnumber the Ukrainians, and outclassed them in kit?

How can drones operate in a modern air defence environment, even at night? 

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38 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

As far as i see now the tempo of operation is remarkably high, far higher that it was expected. Reverse side of it is leaving pockets of resistance behind, of course. 

Any word on the Russian side on how all these advanced hand held weapons pouring into Ukraine from NATO are being secured against theft?  It kinda looks like they're basically just handing out $80,000 dollar weapons to anyone that steps up, without any sort of security or vetting.  That can't possibly be the case, can it?  In Syria the Americans were hugely cautious to count and track each missile going in.  

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Some of you are already metaphorically high-fiving and celebrating as if Russia's utter and total defeat in this war is only a question of time now, and I really do not want to disrupt the general victory festivities here, but are we really supposed to believe that this was all? The Ukrainian army, which never performed very impressively against the separatist militias in the East for the last 8 years, that same army is now suddenly supposed to beat the Russians from pillar to post in a few days? I can not help but feel naive to believe all these tall tales of victory upon victory. Cheering these things on like its a football game. Another goal scored for Ukraine!

 

Also when Putin has miscalculated and indeed loses this was (which is absolutely possible). What then? He gets sacked by his generals and then fast lane to democracy? Or rather failed state Russia? Not sure if this is reason to celebrate either. I do not understand the enthusiasm that you guys display in the unfolding of these events. Like yeah horray Russia is on the road to catastrophe, and will probably drag Belarus down with it. What great news and reason for happiness and joy!

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32 minutes ago, Gromit said:

You don't seem to grasp geography, Russia would have to mobilise it's reserves to come close to occupying Ukraine!

 

This was supposed to be a lightning operation and it's all gone to hell, if they are running out of fuel now adding even more demand on the logistics trains is a sure fire way of creating your own disaster!

This is exactly what Russia will do. The full mobilisation will be announced soon and the Ukraine will be captured.

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