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Kiev Is Burning


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10 minutes ago, DB said:

So, at what point does a "short, victorious war" transition to something less politically appetising?

He is already negotiating a cease fire with Kyiv, Russian Diplomats are saying 'sorry' for the war. I'd say that moment is possibly already here.

The sticking point is whether Zelensky will agree without getting Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea back, or just tell them to Fuck off Russian Warship. 

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6 minutes ago, jaro said:

my theory is, he is dying, and wants to restore "great russia" (intentionally not using capital letters there) no matter what, even if that was the last thing he and entire world would see... so when surviving oligarchs get out of their bunkers 30 years later they can became claiming planned for this dream... against all sort of mutated creatures..

The thought occurred to me too. He wanted to be Putin the Great, not Putin the Pants Poisoner.

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It's fairly obvious what Russia's plan was.

A "light" mobile flying column type overthrow.

They have not yet committed the bulk of their forces yet. Even the US government is saying this. 

We should all be hoping the gloves don't come off... but I fear that point is approaching.

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On 2/25/2022 at 8:25 AM, Simon Tan said:

The depots are what got hit first. It will be illuminating to see what the purpose of Gostomel was. 

Where are the 'green men"

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7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

He is already negotiating a cease fire with Kyiv, Russian Diplomats are saying 'sorry' for the war. I'd say that moment is possibly already here.

He is not negotiating anything up to this moment (Ukrainian delegation still not arrived AFAIK) and anyway it will be low-level talks (Russian delegation head is former Minister of Culture Medinsky, known mostly for his epic fail with installing memorial plate for Mannergeim in St Peterburg –later removed after public outcry). Russian Democrats are always saying sorry (except the cases when Russians are killed) –but also I see rising public movement to exclude this people off Russian society. It is major change in society (before that, Russian Democrats were mostly ignored).

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13 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

He is already negotiating a cease fire with Kyiv, Russian Diplomats are saying 'sorry' for the war. I'd say that moment is possibly already here.

The sticking point is whether Zelensky will agree without getting Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea back, or just tell them to Fuck off Russian Warship. 

In fact, Zelensky just said territorial integrity is his main concern, so we can probably guess what he is thinking.

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1 hour ago, RichTO90 said:

🤣 Yep. "Armored tank" implies there is an "unarmored tank", which is the oxymoron, like "jumbo shrimp" or "military intelligence".

Does uparmored Humvee mean there should be a downarmored Humvee?

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29 minutes ago, DB said:

So, at what point does a "short, victorious war" transition to something less politically appetising?

At what point is was supposed to be "short, victorious war" except 2014 when chances for that were ignored by pro-Western Russian Gov in favour of maintaining illusion of restoring relations with "Western partners"?

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it seems that there is very little infantry in russian forces. manning all this equipment , be it bridging or armor, is so manpower-heavy, that ordinary infantry roles are being filled with natgvardiya, chechens etc.  

 

those russian batallion tactical groups at best have  200-240 infantrymen (3x11x7)  which is not that much if tied down/heavy contact ?

 

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4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

No, I dont believe, if Perimetr does actually exist, it could be hacked, anymore than a minuteman missile can. But why take the chance?

 

How much are you worried about 3rd party hacking looking to cause trouble?  Seems far fetched, (lack of capability of bad actors) but the possibility is in the back of the mind.

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5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Russian Democrats are always saying sorry (except the cases when Russians are killed) –but also I see rising public movement to exclude this people off Russian society. It is major change in society (before that, Russian Democrats were mostly ignored).

Must be a fun country to live in. I wonder why the Ukrainians don't want to be "reintegrated", like you put it at the start of the invasion.

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3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

At what point is was supposed to be "short, victorious war" except 2014 when chances for that were ignored by pro-Western Russian Gov in favour of maintaining illusion of restoring relations with "Western partners"?

Are you suggesting that the idea was to have a drawn-out and ultimately failed war instead? Or some combination of "not short" and "not victorious"? Enquiring minds want to know!

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2 minutes ago, DB said:

Are you suggesting that the idea was to have a drawn-out and ultimately failed war instead? Or some combination of "not short" and "not victorious"? Enquiring minds want to know!

As far as i see now the tempo of operation is remarkably high, far higher that it was expected. Reverse side of it is leaving pockets of resistance behind, of course. 

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1 minute ago, Roman Alymov said:

As far as i see now the tempo of operation is remarkably high, far higher that it was expected. Reverse side of it is leaving pockets of resistance behind, of course. 

It is the start, once Russia fully mobilizes the resistance will be crushed.

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