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Huh ? They gave the last president, how come they have no representation ?!

 

The one who is now in hiding abroad? J Your mistake is you are mixing “representation of East of Ukraine” and “representation of the oligarchs from the East of Ukraine”. All Ukrainian elite got very little to do with public representation (the same is true, to the great deal, in Russia).

 

 

 

And why should joining the EU mean the death of the heavy industry or severing ties with Russia ? Who is feeding you this BS ? If anything, Ukraine will benefit enormously from FDI especially in manufacturing due to skilled labor, resources and low labor costs. Exactly what's missing now.

Tell it to current Ukrainian government - because seems like they have another point of view, even with all their anti-Russian pro-EU rhetoric.

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Huh ? They gave the last president, how come they have no representation ?!

The one who is now in hiding abroad? J Your mistake is you are mixing “representation of East of Ukraine” and “representation of the oligarchs from the East of Ukraine”. All Ukrainian elite got very little to do with public representation (the same is true, to the great deal, in Russia).

 

Isn't that the root of all the revolt and Maidan etc.? The people in Ukraine are fed up with the oligarchs stuffing their pockets. Be it east or west Ukraine they are jolly well fed up . But every small group that was able to establish themselves somehow somewhere by seizing a city has different ideas apart from disliking the state of affairs in the Ukraine as is and disagree on anything else and how to continue.

 

 

And why should joining the EU mean the death of the heavy industry or severing ties with Russia ? Who is feeding you this BS ? If anything, Ukraine will benefit enormously from FDI especially in manufacturing due to skilled labor, resources and low labor costs. Exactly what's missing now.

Tell it to current Ukrainian government - because seems like they have another point of view, even with all their anti-Russian pro-EU rhetoric.

 

If Ukraine gets into ecomomical connection with EU it's economy will be steam-rolled by the much more competetive western european firms. They just expand and flood the ukrainian market with their products. Killing off all of ukrainian economy. So it makes sense to say NO to the economy part of the treaty. But I only see a change coming in how Ukraine's economy works is by a big cathartic breakdown to unseat the oligarchs. I doubt any ukrainian government can advocate a change and enforce against the oligarchs at the moment.

Edited by Panzermann
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And why should joining the EU mean the death of the heavy industry or severing ties with Russia ? Who is feeding you this BS ? If anything, Ukraine will benefit enormously from FDI especially in manufacturing due to skilled labor, resources and low labor costs. Exactly what's missing now.

 

The problem is that this heavy industry is so obsolete that it won't remain competetive without 'friendship price' on NG from Russia (that Ukraine uses 4 times as much as Poland). They did not modernize anything in 20+ years of independence, so the market economy will just kill their 70-80's era heavy industry. That's what happened in Poland and other Central European states after transition to market economy, the question is if the Ukrainians are willing to make the same sacrifices that we made 20+ years ago. We succeeded after all, but still it was a painful process.

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Well the active president of Ukraine has stated that units of the Ukrainian security forces are actively helping the "terrorists" and the situation on the east is out of their control.

I don't get it, if all the separatists, terrorists or whatever are a minority and the vast majority of east Ukrainians want to remain under the new regime in Kiev how can the security forces not control the situation and in addition actively help the terrorists?

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27222023

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Isn't that the root of all the revolt and Maidan etc.? The people in Ukraine are fed up with the oligarchs stuffing their pockets.

 

It is similar to official Russian position- sorry for quoting from Putin, but still is true

“I would like to reiterate that I understand those who came out on Maidan with peaceful slogans against corruption, inefficient state management and poverty. The right to peaceful protest, democratic procedures and elections exist for the sole purpose of replacing the authorities that do not satisfy the people. However, those who stood behind the latest events in Ukraine had a different agenda: they were preparing yet another government takeover; they wanted to seize power and would stop short of nothing.”

What we see now after Maidan is one oligarch group replaced by another, with even greater political power and even less rule of law, replaced by armed Maidan groups. And people of the East are not happy with this (as well as people of the West of Ukraine too) – but above this oligarch rule now they have additional pressure on them not only from nationalists, but also from intellectual elite. What this Kiev inteliegencia (mainly Russian-speaking by the way) is writing in their Facebooks about people from the East is really terrible and add class straggle aspect into situation.

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For any rational individual with half a brain, Moscow's visible/invisible hand is there. Occam's razor is screaming.

 

It's funny how the pro-Moscow crowd is taking Putin's claims ad literam and deconstructing them to show us how dumb we are, but they fail to see his the contradiction between his initial claims/later claims and development on the ground. It's delusional folks, it's all in your head. In reality, Moscow is stirring up the situation in Eastern Ukraine but they've reached an impasse as the bulk of the population ( unlike Crimea ) doesn't support the separatists.

 

It's not so much whether Putin is or is not doing it as it is - why exactly is it that we should care? This probably isn't even going to be the most serious international crisis this year. (Iran and the US haven't exactly reached that nuclear deal that Washington threatened had to be reached for war to be off the table, and I think the expiration on the 6 month period is around July).

Edited by glenn239
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Which begs the question, who gave Putin the Crystal ball that says those who protest in the east are any different from the Politicians he berates in Kiev? Or is a raised Russian flag all he needs to confer legitimacy? :)

 

Nobody is saying this – more over, some Ukrainian analysis believe that at least at some stage protests in the East were initiated and sponsored by local oligarchs as a reason to demand more independence and political power from Kiev. And it was successful attempt, since Kiev formally appointed oligarchs as regional heads. But oligarchs tend to forget people are not toys and not always just pack up and leave after masters say it is time to….

Recently assassinated Kharkov mayor (and local oligarch) - western media portray him to be pro-Kiev and blame Russia, but if you take closer look at this photo he was wearing St. George ribbon when it was politically convenient for him (and was charged with separatism by current Ukrainian minister of interior Avakov, who is by the way his political and personal enemy)

 

Situation is Ukraine is much more complicated then Western media report it to be.

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Roman, of course he is saying just that!. He has 40000 combat troops sat on the border and threatens to intervene if Kiev tries to restore order.

 

The problem is Kiev can’t restore any order since what is now Kiev government is itself completely out of order. The only thing Kiev is able\willing to do now is transforming relatively limited bloodshed (if term “limited” is applicable here) into full-scale civil war with unpredictable outcome. Up to now Russian troops on the border prevented such development.

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An, on the other hand, encouraged eastern separatists to act against Kiev.

The very existence of more wealthy (compared to Ukraine) and more safe\organized (compared to Ukraine) Russia just few kilometers across the border is encouraging eastern separatists to act against Kiev. Presence of Russian troops was not drummed (or even mentioned) by Russian media – it is Ukrainian and Western media who made a huge story out of it, so now every person in Ukraine is aware of this troops standing ready.

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Are you really trying to convince anyone that

 

1. invasion and annexation of mostly Russian-speaking territory of Ukraine

2. presence of Russian troops at the border

 

did not have impact on separatists' stance towards Kiev?

 

Well, good luck with that. :D

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I see absolutely no reason why that trend wont continue with Ukraine

 

 

Association with the West by itself does not equate automatic prosperity. There is no shortage of messed up poor latin american countries which apparently have not benefited all that much from having been in the western camp for a long time. Being in the EU has not stopped Italy decade long structural decline. Plenty of places with low wages, you have to bring something else to the table to be attractive and whether Ukraine can is certainly possible but it remains to be seen.

 

 

Against that, you have the Russian state promising to prop up decaying Eastern Ukrainian heavy industry for every more

 

 

As it is Ukraine makes some stuff (rotors for helicopters just to name one) that they are alredy geared up to produce and with competitive wages, components that the russians actually need or find useful enough, they are not buying them out of purely political generosity. Whether that lasts isn't certainly guaranteed but that the western factories are going to come en masse isn't either.

 

 

Look at it like this, Ukrainians are not going to buy goods they cant afford.

 

 

Same as now.

 

What happens why the price of oil falls? Because Id bet a pound to a quarter ton of shit sooner or later it will.

 

 

As long as economic expansion continues demand for oil will increase. Since supply is constrained, as we can see from the fact that we are chasing increasingly more expensive to get oil (tar sands, fracking, deepwater wells etc.) prices aren't likely to drop massively short of economic contractions.

 

Edited by Marcello
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Are you really trying to convince anyone that

 

1. invasion and annexation of mostly Russian-speaking territory of Ukraine

2. presence of Russian troops at the border

 

did not have impact on separatists' stance towards Kiev?

 

Well, good luck with that. :D

The most part of Ukraine is Russian-speaking region (see Gallup survey earlier in this thread). If country is ok, foreign invasion and threat are believed to be uniting nation. If it is not so – country is deep into trouble. And when country deep into trouble – there is no need to invade it. Standing and waiting is enough.

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The most part of Ukraine is Russian-speaking region (see Gallup survey earlier in this thread). If country is ok, foreign invasion and threat are believed to be uniting nation. If it is not so – country is deep into trouble. And when country deep into trouble – there is no need to invade it. Standing and waiting is enough.

 

Yeah, Ukraine is indeed in deep trouble and it's mostly their own fault, but after Crimea I can't really say Russia is waiting, troops in the border area are also meant as pressure towards Kiev.

 

PS. Speaking Russian =/= being Russian, after all most Irish speak English at home and it doesn't make them more English they you or me.

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The interim president of Ukraine has admitted that whole units of their security services are aiding the "terrorists" and you guys are still arguing if there is a Russian influence in Ukraine? :huh: Unless you believe that somehow the Russians are using some kind of mind control device in eastern Ukraine.

 

The country is falling apart from the inside (with external help obviously from both east and west).

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The most part of Ukraine is Russian-speaking region (see Gallup survey earlier in this thread). If country is ok, foreign invasion and threat are believed to be uniting nation. If it is not so – country is deep into trouble. And when country deep into trouble – there is no need to invade it. Standing and waiting is enough.

 

Yeah, Ukraine is indeed in deep trouble and it's mostly their own fault, but after Crimea I can't really say Russia is waiting, troops in the border area are also meant as pressure towards Kiev.

 

PS. Speaking Russian =/= being Russian, after all most Irish speak English at home and it doesn't make them more English they you or me.

 

 

Forgot the minor detail about religion there though, and all the baggage it brings with it.

Edited by Mistral
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after Crimea I can't really say Russia is waiting, troops in the border area are also meant as pressure towards Kiev.

 

It is pressure to restrain from bloodshed and behave in reasonable manner – but Kiev officials are doing their best to ignore this pressure, continuing with loud threats to rioting regions instead of dialogue. I can’t explain unreasonable behavior by outside pressure. Was appointing oligarchs and demands to ban Russian caused by Russian military threat? Seems like Kiev in fact want to get rid of Ukrainian Eastern regions.

 

PS. Speaking Russian =/= being Russian, after all most Irish speak English at home and it doesn't make them more English they you or me.

 

It is true -already discussed it earlier. But you referred to “mostly Russian-speaking territory of Ukraine” - if was wrong wording, sorry for my tediousness.

Edited by Roman Alymov
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It is pressure to restrain from bloodshed and behave in reasonable manner – but Kiev officials are doing their best to ignore this pressure, continuing with loud threats to rioting regions instead of dialogue. I can’t explain unreasonable behavior by outside pressure. Was appointing oligarchs and demands to ban Russian caused by Russian military threat? Seems like Kiev in fact want to get rid of Ukrainian Eastern regions.

 

1. It was a failed attempt to calm down the situation in the east, but it's hard to blame them, after all it always worked in the past. Basically all of the Ukrainian MPs were controlled by different oligarchs, that's why PoR abandoned Yanuk (Akhmetov & Co told them to do so). Now it looks like the oligarchs have a lot less influence in the East.

 

2. It would be beneficial to them in fact, of course minus gigantic national trauma of losing territory, but all this obsolete industry would then become a Russian problem, not Kiev's. Additionally, Ukraine would become more homogenous after losing those few eastern oblasts'. The rest of the country would be able to basically start from scratch, without this bottomless financial pit of the east and Russian influence in their internal politics.

 

PS. With 'annexation of mostly Russian-speaking region of Ukraine' I meant Crimea, sorry for the confusion)

Edited by urbanoid
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Of course eastern Ukraine would not have revolted without Russia in the background. If they did what they are doing now and Russia was not there, the "terrorists"would have received the Yanukovych treatment long ago

 

And you are also missing the point that they are aiding the "terrorists" not just sitting in their barracks doing nothing.

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Are you really trying to convince anyone that

 

1. invasion and annexation of mostly Russian-speaking territory of Ukraine

2. presence of Russian troops at the border

 

did not have impact on separatists' stance towards Kiev?

 

Well, good luck with that. :D

The most part of Ukraine is Russian-speaking region (see Gallup survey earlier in this thread). I

 

Forget religion & Ireland. Look at Wales & Scotland. Mostly English-speaking, especially Scotland, but I wouldn't call a Welshman or a Scot English, unless I was looking for a fight. Language does not equal nationality.

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Forget religion & Ireland. Look at Wales & Scotland. Mostly English-speaking, especially Scotland, but I wouldn't call a Welshman or a Scot English, unless I was looking for a fight. Language does not equal nationality.

 

Let me self-quote from above: "It is true -already discussed it earlier. But you referred to “mostly Russian-speaking territory of Ukraine” - if was wrong wording, sorry for my tediousness."

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Apparently Kiev government brought some troops into Kiev and...

 

http://112.ua/kiev/vooruzhennye-lyudi-v-kamuflyazhe-blokiruyut-zdanie-kabmina-56417.html

 

"Armed people in camouflage are blocking the Cabinet of Ministers building, gunfire is heard".

 

Some shit seems to be going there right now, but no clear information.

Edited by Lav
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Well the active president of Ukraine has stated that units of the Ukrainian security forces are actively helping the "terrorists" and the situation on the east is out of their control.

I don't get it, if all the separatists, terrorists or whatever are a minority and the vast majority of east Ukrainians want to remain under the new regime in Kiev how can the security forces not control the situation and in addition actively help the terrorists?

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27222023

 

Well, you know how Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place in general? Money talks, shit walks. And across the border, there is a lot more money - just in terms of police and security agencies salaries being 4-6 times higher.

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