Kiev Is Burning

[MiloMorai]

Ukraine's force Russians back across the Dnieper R. in southern Ukraine. Civilian car drivers report dead soldiers along the road.

[jaro]

For example - in my country (Slovakia) biggest Putin supporters of all, are neo-nazi, who recently celebrated Hitler, and Slovakian clergyfascist regime during WW2...  most of them have swastikas tatoed on their bodies (idiots have photos together in bathtub on FB.. go figure) their leader is about to go to jail for open support to nazi regime.. (high court will have his case this march)

Edited February 25, 2022 by jaro

[Perun]

Nice satelite pictures

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-conflict/Satellite-images-reveal-how-Russia-s-Ukraine-invasion-unfolded

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, jaro said:

For example - in my country (Slovakia) biggest Putin supporters of all, are neo-nazi, who recently celebrated Hitler, and Slovakian clergyfascist regime during WW2...  most of them have swastikas tatoed on their bodies (idiots have photos together in bathtub on FB.. go figure)

Ernst Rohm approves.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, On the way said:

Maybe its the F-35 out of Poland that I was theorizing on that shot that SU down? LOL

I don't think F-35's can fly over Ukraine without being tracked to some degree by low frequency radars.

[Perun]

Rate of advance for northern forces is ~45 km daily and for southern group is ~100 km daily

Edited February 25, 2022 by Perun

[jaro]

2 minutes ago, Perun said:

Rate of advance for northern forces is ~45 km daily and for southern group is 100 km daily

Southern group is still at Cherson, so they did not move that much...

[Red Ant]

I got to say, seeing all these videos of people calmly driving or walking past the wreckage of destroyed military equipment ... personally, I'd be extremely wary of even being in the vicinity of a place where fighting took place recently. Aren't they scared that some random artillery barrage might rain down suddenly? Or some unexploded ordnance that might cook off even several hours after the fighting is over?

[Perun]

From 

7 minutes ago, jaro said:

Southern group is still at Cherson, so they did not move that much...

From border to Herson air distance is ~100 km

Eastern group ((Harkiv) rate of advance is ~30 km daily

[jaro]

What better characterize EU as this:

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticized Italian PM Mario Draghi, stating: “At 10:30 am there was heavy fighting in front of Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to Mr Draghi at a specific time”.

[jaro]

destroyed Russian Tunguzka:

 

 

[Yama]

1 hour ago, jaro said:

 

 

Day 1 of Combat 🧵, Takeaways from available information:

1.Russians broke with their own doctrine of relying on heavy, concentrated support fires. 

2.Failure to prepare the operational area with adequate preparatory fire to break up and destroy Ukrainian defenses was a critical hinderance

3.Russians allowed themselves to dilute their own strength by advancing (and dividing their forces & fires) along 4 axis of advance. None were capable of achieving their objectives as a result.

4.Insufficiently supported troops failed to achieve necessary tactical breakthroughs with strategic implications for the battlespace 

5.Airborne/Air Assault forces cannot operate well against even a semi-intact air defense network, or in contested airspace.

6.Airborne/Air Assault insertions against superior local forces are an expensive waste of highly trained manpower.

7.Commando actions ala Joachim Piper in the Ardennes 1944, in Kyiv, did not achieve much success. Commando infiltration of Kyiv a major success prior to operations – massive Ukrainian security failure.

8.Russian morale is lower than expected. Some units appear to have anticipated being met with grateful Ukrainian crowds instead of stiff opposition.

9.Leadership at the Platoon, Company & Battalion level highly questionable in some units based on behavior.

10.Russian troops are ‘green’ overall, noticeable reluctance to dismount APCs/IFVs and provide infantry screen for the armor when in contact. Heavy resulting casualties vs man portable anti-tank weapons

11.Overall battleplan’s basic assumptions on opposition levels and Russian capability fundamentally flawed. Command & Control rigid and inflexible.

12.Ukrainians delayed mobilization far too long. Decision not to hold on the Dnieper politically more viable than abandoning East Ukraine, but possibly a critical strategic failure militarily.

 

All of that sounds pretty much like nonsense - so little actual, reliable information is publicly available that it is impossible to draw such conclusions as he does.

My impression based on the news reports is that the war is not so intense as one might have expected beforehand considering available forces on both sides. In some places there is hard fighting, in others Russians seem to be leisurely driving forward like they were in their own country. This probably reflects how outnumbered and poorly prepared Ukraine is against this kind of invasion, they don't have that many effective, mobile fighting formations and they called up the reservists way too late.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Reports on CNN that Russia is launching an amphibious assault at Mariopol.

[Stuart Galbraith]

CNN says that Zelensky is willing to to talk about neutral status. Which would be the worst possible outcome for Europe.

[Nobu]

8 hours ago, DougRichards said:

One suggestion is that it is simply the incorporation of the Ukraine into 'Russia'.  Isn't that Putin's end game?

I am sure he hopes UKRAINE 2022 "ends" abruptly at that point. I don't see NATO letting him off the hook that easily, however.

The Pentagon having the equivalent of Col. Fellers in Moscow sending intel to it makes Washington's calm in the face of the Federation's bluster even more understandable now.

[jaro]

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

CNN says that Zelensky is willing to to talk about neutral status. Which would be the worst possible outcome for Europe.

At this point, he doesnt owe Europe anything... 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, jaro said:

At this point, he doesnt owe Europe anything... 

I completely agree.

Interestingly, Germany is coming around to ending swift. We shall have to see if that makes any difference.

[KV7]

It is hard to make definite assessment, but the invasion does appear somewhat shambolic. The multiple paths of advance seems to have sound reasoning and especially the unexpected push from Belarus but where resistance was light the exploitation has been poorly executed.

Trying to hastily force the bridge at Kherson with armour was rash and seemingly costly. Far better to have used the airborne forces to cross first and secure the bridgehead.  The current path looping back to flank Mariupol looks better.

Edited February 25, 2022 by KV7

[Sardaukar]

For all alleged combat experience in Syria etc. and recent training, Russian forces do not appear to be very competent.

Maybe they don't have much of a motivation.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The morale of the Russian Forces is reportedly bad. But it's something of a surprise that, for all the investment, Russian Forces are performing worse so far than in Georgia.

Of course the seem to have put only a fraction of their resources in. But it's clear they need a rethink.

 

Meanwhile Putin embarks further into his breakdown.

 

[KV7]

22 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

CNN says that Zelensky is willing to to talk about neutral status. Which would be the worst possible outcome for Europe.

It is totally acceptable, and could have been the end result without any conflict.

The problem here is that after no action on Minsk, Russia may surmise that any such agreement is some last ditch survival effort that will be reneged on once the pressure is gone. Overall the Russian position here is very bad, because Ukrainian domestic politics is going to surely push the political system towards rejecting any sort of agreement imposed by war.

Objectively it may be in the best interests of Ukrainians to have such an agreement but there is almost surely no political force which could make this argument sufficient to prevail in elections. Which means that Russia will likely need to keep making threats to secure their objectives, and they cannot apply pressure in the way the U.S. can, via sanctions and other low politcal cost actions. And so the conflict isn't defused.

The problem could perhaps be solved by the U.S. encouraging the move, but that is extremely unlikely.

Edited February 25, 2022 by KV7

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oopsie.

[jaro]

Ammo deliveries from Poland incoming:

 

[jaro]

Ukrainians blown off bridge between Ukraine and Belarus!

[TonyE]

T-72 and a number of BMP3s between Melitopol and Mariupol: