Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Yama]

14 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

They don't need to commit the whole Army, just a brigade or 2 will suffice, and they can just be providing security to the rear. The push to Kiev seems more like a supporting operation to draw forces and attention away from the East.

I don't know...I think Putin wants to discredit the Ukrainan government, and tries to get them to either surrender or flee. Whatever else, having your own flag fly over the enemy capital is always a powerful message in itself and likely to lower enemy morale. So I think Kiev is a very real objective for them.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The claim that it was an Su27 shot down over Kyiv last night seem to be accurate. The claim is that it was a Ukrainian one shot down by Russian Air Defence forces. The question I have is, if thats so, then why are the Russians only now approaching Kyiv several hours later? Friendly fire maybe? Intercepted by a Russian Aircraft? At least it seems the pilot got out, which is something.

 

[Laser Shark]

13 minutes ago, Yama said:

Ukr side claims the field was cleared: they sent a mechanized brigade there, probably more than enough to deal with a small landing. However they apparently didn't have troops to encircle the field and the landing force may have been just pulled back from the open. If Ukrainans had really killed or captured a large number of VDV forces, the pics would be all over the news.

The Ukrainians claim they scattered into the forest, but yeah, I’d have expected some photos of casualties and/or pows by now. Speaking of which, I wonder if the knocked out T-80BVM and MT-LBs near Kharkiv didn’t belong to an “old friend”, the 200th motor rifle brigade in Petsamo? It's believed over here that they have deployed 1-2 BTGs to this theatre.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Laser Shark

[Stuart Galbraith]

Possibly, though its probable that any other 'Cold Weather' Brigades have just the same Orbat, ie T80BVM and MTLB. They were deploying them from Siberia as well .

 

This was found on Russiadefence.net, its attributed to strelkov.

https://www.russiadefence.net/viewimage?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FFMZABJvXoAAakof%3Fformat%3Dpng%26name%3Dmedium

https://www.russiadefence.net/viewimage?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FFMZATfVXoAkNQS1%3Fformat%3Dpng%26name%3Dmedium

 

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Stuart Galbraith

[Perun]

Very interesting read

 

West must share the blame for Ukraine crisis

It is very unfortunate that many in the West, also in South Africa, are inclined to want to place all the blame for the recent developments in Ukraine on Putin and Russia.

Based on my own experiences with various Russian governments (ie meetings with President Yeltsin , Putin and Medvedev) and people over many years as part of the SA delegations of Presidents Mandela, Mbeki and Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma to Russia, it was very evident back then that the current crisis has had a long and complex history, from both a western and Russian perspective.

The crisis was caused by complicated reasons, including Nato's continued aggressive expansion that caused concrete security threats to Russia and other non-Nato countries in the region. So it would be grossly unfair to simply blame and accuse one side.

The Russian narrative conveyed to our SA delegations by the Russians over a long period in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, was that “the West deceived them and acted in a way that left them out of a post-Cold War Europe”. It was more than evident that it was going to be hard to bridge these positions which let emotions run high, given the fact that Russia strongly reached out to the West at the time but that it was “ rudely ignored “ , with a result that Russian hopes over 30 years ago of being part of Europe didn't materialise. So the current crisis is an ongoing fall out out from the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early nineties.

We as the SA delegations were often reminded by the Russians during discussions on multilateral affairs, that after the Cold War, Russia showed an initial interest in “associating and working with Nato “ but the request was summarily wiped off the table by Nato. Furthermore that Nato promised Russia that it would not expand, but failed to keep its promise.

The Nato expansion has brought heavy pressure on Russia as Nato continued to deploy weapons and missile defence systems in countries around Russia, and this has undermined the nuclear strategic balance in Europe. At the same time, however, it appeared that the Americans were consistently trying to convince the Russians that their concerns about Nato would be respected.

Jim Baker, the US Secretary of State at the time , pledged in Moscow on May 18, 1990, that the USA would cooperate with the Soviet Union in the “development of a new Europe.” And in June 1990 , per talking points prepared at the time for President George Bush, the latter was telling Soviet leaders that the United States sought “a new, inclusive Europe.”

President Yeltsin wrote to President Bill Clinton in a letter in September 1993 stating “ that it is important to take into account how our public opinion might react to that step “ ( the expansion of Nato).

But Yeltsin also cited what he cast as assurances given to Soviet officials during the negotiations on German unification, by adding that "the spirit of the treaty on the final settlement... precludes the option of expanding the Nato zone into the East."

Four years later, in an effort to assuage Moscow's concerns, Nato and Russia signed the Russian and Nato Founding Act , an political agreement stating, among other things, that "Nato and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries."

In 2002, Nato and Russia agreed to set up a joint consultative council, ostensibly as a mechanism to resolve disagreements. But the sad thing was that the USA and Nato never were serious about implementing meaningful dialogue. The 1997 Founding Act was well-intentioned, as was the 2002 creation of the Nato-Russia Council but these agreements have "never worked," because Nato often continued to takes actions that affected Russian or regional security without consulting Moscow.

In fact a few years later , Nato underwent its largest expansion in its history, admitting seven more Eastern European countries, including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which had been republics of the Soviet Union. While it wasn't the first time a Nato member bordered Russia or the Soviet Union, now a Nato member's troops potentially could be located just 625 kilometres from Moscow.

Russia‘s insecurity is compounded by the fact that Russia ‘s defence budget amounts to 8 percent of that of the USA whereas Nato as a whole spends 20 times what Russia spends on its military.

As far back as 2007, at the Munich Security Conference,which i happened to attend , Putin unleashed vehement criticism against Nato, as well as the United States, accusing the alliance of duplicity and of threatening Russia. He stated

"I think it is obvious that Nato expansion has no relation with the modernization of the alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.”

Putin desperately asked “ what happened to the assurances our Western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those guarantees and declarations today ?" A remark that prompted some head-scratching, because the debate had focused almost exclusively on remarks made before the Warsaw Pact fell apart.

Even the last US ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock, had repeatedly insisted, both in congressional testimony and later that Gorbachev had received assurances that if Germany united, and stayed in Nato, the borders of Nato would not move eastward.

Given the current serious crisis in Ukraine, it is a fact that Nato's enlargement could have been "managed" in a much more effective and honest manner to minimise misunderstandings. It is generally stated by International commentators that it was possible to both enlarge Nato and avoid conflict. The chance was, however, missed and today we see a worsening conflict with possible devastating global consequences .

Putin having the support of the overwhelming part of the Russian population , increasingly continues to put forward the narrative to the Russian people that Russia was deceived by Nato and the USA, in fact , presenting Russia as a victim of broken promises . There are many worthwhile books on this topic which reflect the “ trauma, humiliation and broken pride “ of the Russian people in the post-Soviet period . I would recommend to all those who tend to place all the blame on Russia to read a book by Svetlana Alexievich’s, titled “ Second -hand Time.” for which she received the Noble prize for Literature. It provides a fascinating insight and emotional understanding of Russia and its people during and after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“ Second - hand Time “ is a masterpiece – not only for what it says about the fall of the Soviet Union but for what it suggests about the future of Russia and its former satellites. If only the West had read this book!

All parties concerned should, however, continue dialogue and consultation, and seek reasonable solutions to the Ukraine crisis, to address each other's concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect. There is no other option!

https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/opinion/west-must-share-the-blame-for-ukraine-crisis-7fb84a2b-ced6-42ef-a7ec-2543e17b91a5

[Stuart Galbraith]

'I blame Herr Hitler on the Allies. They after all imposed an unfair Versaille's Treaty!'

Which is true, up to a point.But It overlooks that Putin green lit the NATO expansion, inquired about Joining NATO and then subsequently, when it served a useful political narrative, then turned against it.

We kicked this around a million times. Putin may be justified in being peeved with NATO, but I gradually lost interest after Georgia, lost further interest after Salisbury, and frankly no longer give a damn after dropping the first bomb on Kyiv. Frankly, who gives a shit now? Its possibly going to be a world war, and it no longer matters who's right, only who wins.

 

Report on CNN, reconnaisance forces have penetrated into the outskirts of Kyiv, and citizens are being asked to make Molotov Cocktails to use on them.

 

[Sardaukar]

30 minutes ago, Laser Shark said:

The Ukrainians claim they scattered into the forest, but yeah, I’d have expected some photos of casualties and/or pows by now. Speaking of which, I wonder if the knocked out T-80BVM and MT-LBs near Kharkiv didn’t belong to an “old friend”, the 200th motor rifle brigade in Petsamo? It's believed over here that they have deployed 1-2 BTGs to this theatre.

T-80BVM is also used in Far East, so could be troops transferred to west from there.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ok, so its the Mirror and somewhat breathless, but it does give some indication of the state of Ukrainian morale.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-mp-says-thats-ak-26326109

 

Ukraine MP says 'that's why I have my AK-47' when asked about Russian invasion

Sviatoslav Yurash was speaking to BBC Radio 4 when he said that he had an assault rifle ready in case of a Russian invasion, his words come as Kremlin forces try to seize Kyiv

 

Click for SounA Ukrainian MP said “that’s exactly why I’m looking at my AK-47 in front of me” when he was asked about the Russia invasion closing in on Kyiv.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Sviatoslav Yurash said he was readying to fight the Russians himself if necessary with his own gun. Kyiv citizens have been urged to make their own molotov cocktails as part of the defence of the capital.

Yurash said: "This is a full-scale invasion intending to destroy the Ukrainian state and take it over.

“We will fight with everything we have and all the support the world can provide us.

"We are arming people who will be taking that fight to the Russians in every way.

 

“We are a nation of 40 million people and we are not going to just stand idly by as Russia does as it wants all across its borders.

“We will fight with everything we have and all the support the world can provide us."

Despite admitting to have a “rudimentary knowledge” of the weapon, the MP said “these are skills you pick up very fast when you’re fighting for your life.”

He claimed there were Ukraine citizens “gathering in plenty” at recruitment stations, ready to fight as well.

This all comes on the second day of the Russian invasion.

Throughout the night the Ukrainian capital was bombarded with Russian missile strikes.

Air raid sirens sounded across Kyiv and many took shelter int underground bomb shelters.

Pictures emerging from the capital showed smoke plumes rising above the capital and fire from the missile attacks.

Burnt out residential buildings and damaged homes were snapped as well, showing the toll the invasion is quickly taking on the capital.

And now there are reports that Russian troops are fighting outside the capital, as UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said Moscow intends to conquer the entire country.

However, despite Putin’s advances, Russia has already lost 450 troops, and both Ukraine and the UK have said they failed to achieve their objectives on the first day of the invasion.

Speaking to Sky News, he said: "Our assessment as of this morning is that Russia has not taken any of its major objectives, in fact it is behind its hopeful timetable.

“They’ve lost over 450 personnel and… one of the significant airports they were trying to capture with their elite Spetsnaz has failed to be taken, and in fact the Ukrainians have taken it back.”

Outside the northern city of Chernihiv, Ukrainian troops halted the Russian march, and fighting continues outside the city according to the country’s Ministry of Defence.

 

The country’ Ministry of Defence also said that it thought Russia had failed to achieve its day one objectives and had been met with “fierce resistance” across all fronts.

Yurash would be far from the only Ukrainian to pick up weapons for the first time as the Ukrainian Defence Front has welcomed citizens of all ages into its ranks.

[Rick]

24 minutes ago, Perun said:

Very interesting read

 

West must share the blame for Ukraine crisis

It is very unfortunate that many in the West, also in South Africa, are inclined to want to place all the blame for the recent developments in Ukraine on Putin and Russia.

Based on my own experiences with various Russian governments (ie meetings with President Yeltsin , Putin and Medvedev) and people over many years as part of the SA delegations of Presidents Mandela, Mbeki and Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma to Russia, it was very evident back then that the current crisis has had a long and complex history, from both a western and Russian perspective.

The crisis was caused by complicated reasons, including Nato's continued aggressive expansion that caused concrete security threats to Russia and other non-Nato countries in the region. So it would be grossly unfair to simply blame and accuse one side.

The Russian narrative conveyed to our SA delegations by the Russians over a long period in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, was that “the West deceived them and acted in a way that left them out of a post-Cold War Europe”. It was more than evident that it was going to be hard to bridge these positions which let emotions run high, given the fact that Russia strongly reached out to the West at the time but that it was “ rudely ignored “ , with a result that Russian hopes over 30 years ago of being part of Europe didn't materialise. So the current crisis is an ongoing fall out out from the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early nineties.

We as the SA delegations were often reminded by the Russians during discussions on multilateral affairs, that after the Cold War, Russia showed an initial interest in “associating and working with Nato “ but the request was summarily wiped off the table by Nato. Furthermore that Nato promised Russia that it would not expand, but failed to keep its promise.

The Nato expansion has brought heavy pressure on Russia as Nato continued to deploy weapons and missile defence systems in countries around Russia, and this has undermined the nuclear strategic balance in Europe. At the same time, however, it appeared that the Americans were consistently trying to convince the Russians that their concerns about Nato would be respected.

Jim Baker, the US Secretary of State at the time , pledged in Moscow on May 18, 1990, that the USA would cooperate with the Soviet Union in the “development of a new Europe.” And in June 1990 , per talking points prepared at the time for President George Bush, the latter was telling Soviet leaders that the United States sought “a new, inclusive Europe.”

President Yeltsin wrote to President Bill Clinton in a letter in September 1993 stating “ that it is important to take into account how our public opinion might react to that step “ ( the expansion of Nato).

But Yeltsin also cited what he cast as assurances given to Soviet officials during the negotiations on German unification, by adding that "the spirit of the treaty on the final settlement... precludes the option of expanding the Nato zone into the East."

Four years later, in an effort to assuage Moscow's concerns, Nato and Russia signed the Russian and Nato Founding Act , an political agreement stating, among other things, that "Nato and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries."

In 2002, Nato and Russia agreed to set up a joint consultative council, ostensibly as a mechanism to resolve disagreements. But the sad thing was that the USA and Nato never were serious about implementing meaningful dialogue. The 1997 Founding Act was well-intentioned, as was the 2002 creation of the Nato-Russia Council but these agreements have "never worked," because Nato often continued to takes actions that affected Russian or regional security without consulting Moscow.

In fact a few years later , Nato underwent its largest expansion in its history, admitting seven more Eastern European countries, including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which had been republics of the Soviet Union. While it wasn't the first time a Nato member bordered Russia or the Soviet Union, now a Nato member's troops potentially could be located just 625 kilometres from Moscow.

Russia‘s insecurity is compounded by the fact that Russia ‘s defence budget amounts to 8 percent of that of the USA whereas Nato as a whole spends 20 times what Russia spends on its military.

As far back as 2007, at the Munich Security Conference,which i happened to attend , Putin unleashed vehement criticism against Nato, as well as the United States, accusing the alliance of duplicity and of threatening Russia. He stated

"I think it is obvious that Nato expansion has no relation with the modernization of the alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.”

Putin desperately asked “ what happened to the assurances our Western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those guarantees and declarations today ?" A remark that prompted some head-scratching, because the debate had focused almost exclusively on remarks made before the Warsaw Pact fell apart.

Even the last US ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock, had repeatedly insisted, both in congressional testimony and later that Gorbachev had received assurances that if Germany united, and stayed in Nato, the borders of Nato would not move eastward.

Given the current serious crisis in Ukraine, it is a fact that Nato's enlargement could have been "managed" in a much more effective and honest manner to minimise misunderstandings. It is generally stated by International commentators that it was possible to both enlarge Nato and avoid conflict. The chance was, however, missed and today we see a worsening conflict with possible devastating global consequences .

Putin having the support of the overwhelming part of the Russian population , increasingly continues to put forward the narrative to the Russian people that Russia was deceived by Nato and the USA, in fact , presenting Russia as a victim of broken promises . There are many worthwhile books on this topic which reflect the “ trauma, humiliation and broken pride “ of the Russian people in the post-Soviet period . I would recommend to all those who tend to place all the blame on Russia to read a book by Svetlana Alexievich’s, titled “ Second -hand Time.” for which she received the Noble prize for Literature. It provides a fascinating insight and emotional understanding of Russia and its people during and after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“ Second - hand Time “ is a masterpiece – not only for what it says about the fall of the Soviet Union but for what it suggests about the future of Russia and its former satellites. If only the West had read this book!

All parties concerned should, however, continue dialogue and consultation, and seek reasonable solutions to the Ukraine crisis, to address each other's concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect. There is no other option!

https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/opinion/west-must-share-the-blame-for-ukraine-crisis-7fb84a2b-ced6-42ef-a7ec-2543e17b91a5

Did the nations that recently joined N.A.T.O. do so out of love for N.A.T.O. or fear of Russia?  

 

[KV7]

This is quite good:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/united-states-europe-war-russia-ukraine-sleepwalking

 

[RETAC21]

6 minutes ago, KV7 said:

This is quite good:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/united-states-europe-war-russia-ukraine-sleepwalking

 

It's the anti-Theodore Roosevelt school: speak harsly and do nothing.

[Perun]

27 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

'I blame Herr Hitler on the Allies. They after all imposed an unfair Versaille's Treaty!'

Which is true, up to a point.But It overlooks that Putin green lit the NATO expansion, inquired about Joining NATO and then subsequently, when it served a useful political narrative, then turned against it.

We kicked this around a million times. Putin may be justified in being peeved with NATO, but I gradually lost interest after Georgia, lost further interest after Salisbury, and frankly no longer give a damn after dropping the first bomb on Kyiv. Frankly, who gives a shit now? Its possibly going to be a world war, and it no longer matters who's right, only who wins.

 

Report on CNN, reconnaisance forces have penetrated into the outskirts of Kyiv, and citizens are being asked to make Molotov Cocktails to use on them.

 

Don't mix reality. First of all, Hitler and Putin can not be compared in any circumstances. Second, Hitler was credited with "western" bankers and he had many sympathies from their governments. Third, Hitler and his gang had psychopathic plans for other nations. Fourth...

[Stuart Galbraith]

Just now, Perun said:

Don't mix reality. First of all, Hitler and Putin can not be compared in any circumstances. Second, Hitler was credited with "western" bankers and he had many sympathies from their governments. Third, Hitler and his gang had psychopathic plans for other nations. Fourth...

Perun, I do not get your logic. You say they cant be compared, and then show they are indeed directly comparable. Yes, the ethnic purging is not there to the same degree, but as he seems obsessed with the Russian birth rate and the preservation of Russian's in general, its not entirely absent either.

Yes, the west erected Putin, just like they erected Hitler. Im just making the point, the self flagellation is irrelevant now. Ukraine is at war with them, and likely we are going to be soon as well. Does it really help to see any enemy's point of view, when what we must worry about now is containing and defeating him?

I believe in 'know your enemy' too, but a lot of what of Putin believes is hot air. Dont take my word for it, ask a Ukrainian. its the Ukrainians themselves directly comparing Putin to Hitler. I would argue they are well placed to make a judgement on such things.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Stuart Galbraith

[jaro]

5 minutes ago, Perun said:

Don't mix reality. First of all, Hitler and Putin can not be compared in any circumstances. Second, Hitler was credited with "western" bankers and he had many sympathies from their governments. Third, Hitler and his gang had psychopathic plans for other nations. Fourth...

you can compare them quite well... Putin call for "denazification" of Ukraine... country, where their president is of Jewish origin... 

[Stefan Kotsch]

47 minutes ago, Perun said:

Very interesting read

 

West must share the blame for Ukraine crisis

It is very unfortunate that many in the West, also in South Africa, are inclined to want to place all the blame for the recent developments in Ukraine on Putin and Russia.

...

Kenya’s ambassador at the United Nations has received widespread praise for a speech he made about the ongoing crisis.:

 

“Kenya and almost every African country was birthed by the ending of empire. Our borders were not of our own drawing, they were drawn in the distant colonial metropoles of London, Paris and Lisbon, with no regard for the ancient nations that they cleaved apart.

“Today across the border of every single African country live our countrymen with whom we share deep historical cultural and linguistic bonds.

“At independence had we chosen to pursue states on the basis of ethnic, racial or religious homogeneity, we would still be waging bloody wars these many decades later.

“Instead we agreed that we would settle for the borders that we inherited but we would still pursue continental political economic and legal integration rather than form nations that looked every backward into history with a dangerous nostalgia, we chose to look forwards to a greatness none of our many nations and peoples had ever known.”

He continued: “We believe that all states formed from empires that have collapsed or retreated have many peoples in them yearning for integration with peoples in neighbouring states. This is normal and understandable, after all, who does not want to be joined to their brethren and to make common purpose with them.

“However Kenya regrets such a yearning from being pursued by force. We must complete our recovery from the embers of dead empires in a way that does not plunge us back into new forms of domination and oppression.

“We rejected irredentism and expansionism on any basis including racial, ethnic, religious or cultural factors. We reject it again today.”

Quelle

[Sardaukar]

15 minutes ago, KV7 said:

This is quite good:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/united-states-europe-war-russia-ukraine-sleepwalking

 

That guy seems to be another appeaser advocating treaties done over participants' heads (aka "well-worn Munich treaty" or more akin to "Molotov-Ribbentropp treaty"). 

[RETAC21]

5 minutes ago, Sardaukar said:

That guy seems to be another appeaser advocating treaties done over participants' heads (aka "well-worn Munich treaty" or more akin to "Molotov-Ribbentropp treaty"). 

But also part of the current US tendency to claim success for one self and blame others for failures.

[Stuart Galbraith]

In fairness thats not just an American disease, many European nations, my own included, just love doing that.

[Perun]

11 minutes ago, jaro said:

you can compare them quite well... Putin call for "denazification" of Ukraine... country, where their president is of Jewish origin... 

Are you saing that jews are nazis

[Sardaukar]

What is appalling in situation is weakness (even shameful cowardice) shown by Germany and it's leaders (plus few others). 

Watering down economic sanctions by excluding severing Russia from SWIFT is entirely fault of Germany's (and few others' leadership). Their excuse is "to allow even stricter sanctions if Russia goes further". Goes further to what? Uses nuke? Moral cowardness is just that, no matter how dressed up.

[jaro]

2 minutes ago, Perun said:

Are you saing that jews are nazis

NO. i'm saying Putin is saying that....

[Perun]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Perun, I do not get your logic. You say they cant be compared, and then show they are indeed directly comparable. Yes, the ethnic purging is not there to the same degree, but as he seems obsessed with the Russian birth rate and the preservation of Russian's in general, its not entirely absent either.

Yes, the west erected Putin, just like they erected Hitler. Im just making the point, the self flagellation is irrelevant now. Ukraine is at war with them, and likely we are going to be soon as well. Does it really help to see any enemy's point of view, when what we must worry about now is containing and defeating him?

I believe in 'know your enemy' too, but a lot of what of Putin believes is hot air. Dont take my word for it, ask a Ukrainian. its the Ukrainians themselves directly comparing Putin to Hitler. I would argue they are well placed to make a judgement on such things.

I just showed that they cant be comparef

[Sardaukar]

2 minutes ago, Perun said:

Are you saing that jews are nazis

Putin has said just that... Very ironic, calling "denazification" of Ukraine whose leader is a Jewish...

[Perun]

Just now, jaro said:

NO. i'm saying Putin is saying that....

Do you have link for that statement