Kiev Is Burning

[Stargrunt6]

32 minutes ago, On the way said:

Seems they are running their Afghan invasion playbook without the palace coup

I dunno, that airborne assault on the Kiev airport comes close enough.

[KV7]

I am still in shock re. the airborne assault. It seems extremely reckless. Surely they would be better off being used to, for example, get behind the defenses at Kherson, and perhaps block some resupply routes etc. Then soon the city could be taken quickly and they can be inserted somewhere else.

Edited February 25, 2022 by KV7

[Nobu]

Stunning if successful.

Zelensky still being alive is an indication that it wasn't.

His escort company may have been tipped off, by the same intel guys in a Pentagon basement somewhere, who do not seem to have been wrong yet.

[Ivanhoe]

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Multiple outlets are reporting that only a fraction of Russian forces have crossed the border.  Why?  Why invade with only a fraction of the troops you have available?

I have a gut feeling that conquest or total regime change is not the goal. Something else is, dunno what. Wouldn't put it past Putin to have invested massively in gold, crypto, oil etc. then spark a war driving panic buys. Cash out, negotiate a peace, perhaps lock in the continental NG market with concessions.

 

[FlyingCanOpener]

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Multiple outlets are reporting that only a fraction of Russian forces have crossed the border.  Why?  Why invade with only a fraction of the troops you have available?

Seems like the Russians are trying to probe how much the Ukrainians are willing to fall back on/surrender to them before fully committing while at the same time trying to pull a Shock and Awe-ski through an air assault on Kyiv. Only 24 hours in but every minute Ukraine stands is one less minute Putin has until it becomes a quagmire or he ends up sitting on a throne of rubble and most of his domestic collateral spent after achieving his stated goals.

[KV7]

One option is they have forces in reserve for a big push in an unexpected location. But I think it would be too hard to redeploy quickly to make this possible.

Edited February 25, 2022 by KV7

[On the way]

1 hour ago, Simon Tan said:

If the bulk of the Ukranian military is arrayed in the east, they are essentially being pocketed to east of the Dnepr. The killing will really begin when they try to break out. 

Stay and starve. Move and run the gauntlet of fires. This is classic operational  manouevre. 

I suppose they have substantial forces in the area of the capital if they can repulse an airborne attack on their airbase. Plus a lot of mobilization of forces and reserves will take place not in the East. The main population centres being Kiev in the North and Odessa in the south. If they draw their equipment and weapons from their depots in these areas, they can relief any beleaguered forces in the East.

[Nobu]

55 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said:

I have a gut feeling that conquest or total regime change is not the goal. Something else is, dunno what. 

I think the Federation is already starting to think about where the off-switch is. 

I also think they are screwed. There's a room in the basement of the Pentagon somewhere that may be receiving communications from STAVKA as fast as Putin's generals are.

 

[Simon Tan]

The depots are what got hit first. It will be illuminating to see what the purpose of Gostomel was. 

[lucklucky]

Maybe a sort of "Shock and Wave" probably to make Ukranians believe they do not stand a chance and that deep penetration is a threat.

Edited February 25, 2022 by lucklucky

[On the way]

49 minutes ago, Simon Tan said:

The depots are what got hit first. It will be illuminating to see what the purpose of Gostomel was. 

Probably all the shipments of Stingers recently arrived from the US sitting in the hangers there. LOL

[KV7]

Do we know what happened at Gostomel yet ? Did the airborne troops pull out or are there still clashes ?

[KV7]

1 hour ago, On the way said:

I suppose they have substantial forces in the area of the capital if they can repulse an airborne attack on their airbase. Plus a lot of mobilization of forces and reserves will take place not in the East. The main population centres being Kiev in the North and Odessa in the south. If they draw their equipment and weapons from their depots in these areas, they can relief any beleaguered forces in the East.

If Russia can cut a few bridges, reinforcement may still be possible through the remaining routes but the traffic jam will make easy targets for airpower.

[Perun]

Something is weird with this invasion

[KV7]

It looks like the main thrust is towards Kharkov.

[jaro]

He supposedly shot down  2x Su35, 1xSu27/30, 2x Su-25 and 1x MiG29

 

[jaro]

https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkxt-FKBV8j_It53LY94wgxoRloDBfkCMGt

 

Around the north-Ukrainian village of Snovsk locals went out to the road and stopped two Russian armored vehicles, dragged out the crew and set the vehicles on fire.

[jaro]

i think no words are needed here...

 

[jaro]

 

 

Ukrainian rocket artillery got their payback...

[RichTO90]

1 hour ago, On the way said:

Probably all the shipments of Stingers recently arrived from the US sitting in the hangers there. LOL

Unlikely, since Gostomel, unless things have changed significantly since I was there in 2004, is primarily a test facility for Antonov and never really managed to become an air cargo hub as planned. That honor went to Boryspil, which is probably where any air deliveries of arms from the US went through.

Or maybe they just wanted to capture all the Antonov antiques and boneyard aircraft, which is most of what was there. The hints in the one photo are the weeds growing on the concrete and what appears to be an engine-less AN-2 Colt sitting on the taxiway...I remember seeing it or its brother there 18 years ago in the same condition. The derelict AN-124 at the end of the taxiway is pretty impressive though.

[jaro]

1 minute ago, RichTO90 said:

Unlikely, since Gostomel, unless things have changed significantly since I was there in 2004, is primarily a test facility for Antonov and never really managed to become an air cargo hub as planned. That honor went to Boryspil, which is probably where any air deliveries of arms from the US went through.

Or maybe they just wanted to capture all the Antonov antiques and boneyard aircraft, which is most of what was there. The hints in the one photo are the weeds growing on the concrete and what appears to be an engine-less AN-2 Colt sitting on the taxiway...I remember seeing it or its brother there 18 years ago in the same condition. The derelict AN-124 at the end of the taxiway is pretty impressive though.

 

most likely they just needed a runway close to Kyiv to bring more VDV troops for quick attack..

[jaro]

 

wearing uniform of opposite side? isn't that a death sentence if captured?

[RichTO90]

1 minute ago, jaro said:

 

most likely they just needed a runway close to Kyiv to bring more VDV troops for quick attack..

Yeah, I know, shhh! You'll give away the secret. Seriously, Gostomel is a bitch of a ride from downtown Kyiv; its only virtue is that it os on the correct side of the Dnieper, unlike Boryspil. With helos they could have just used the driveway, parking lot, and entrance grounds at the Museum of the Great Patriotic War, its a clear, fairly flat space about 600 by 80 meters or so...and near the center of the city.

[DougRichards]

3 hours ago, Nobu said:

I think the Federation is already starting to think about where the off-switch is. 

I also think they are screwed. There's a room in the basement of the Pentagon somewhere that may be receiving communications from STAVKA as fast as Putin's generals are.

 

One suggestion is that it is simply the incorporation of the Ukraine into 'Russia'.  Isn't that Putin's end game?

[jaro]

1 minute ago, DougRichards said:

One suggestion is that it is simply the incorporation of the Ukraine into 'Russia'.  Isn't that Putin's end game?

That might have worked somewhere else, but Ukrainians don't drop weapons.. they fight.. occupation will be costly..