Kiev Is Burning

[Daan]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well the air assaults are. They haven't even got the armour past Kharkiv yet.

But there has been no sign of an organized Ukrainian counterattack either. International journalists are filming the Russian troops near the base's gate.

[Stuart Galbraith]

You mean the air assault? The Ukrainians counter attacked but we're beaten off. I would agree, there is little coordination. I'm guessing Russian jamming is working overtime.

[Josh]

Forgot to mention, mea culpa on an Odessa landing. They really did it. I can't imagine how they will support that beachhead with their landing assets; presumably they are banking on a link up from one of the ground axis of attack.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Have you got a source for that? Most of the guys whom claimed it backpedaled. It seems the offensive is being conducted purely by kit out of Crimea.

[glenn239]

50 minutes ago, Josh said:

Well in any case, this looks like an attack designed at the minimum to take most of the Ukraine east of the Dneiper and threaten/encircle Kiev. Definitely not a half measure to degrade or save face. Also no sustained bombardment first; just immediate movement on all fronts and even risky air mobile attacks. It's ambitious.

Looks broadly correct in scope.   General impression is that Ukrainian forces are fighting as well as can be expected, but are getting a shit kicking.  Doesn't seem like the Javelins are even slowing them down, just inflicting occasional losses. 

Looks like a huge encirclement operation?

 

 

[bojan]

40 minutes ago, Daan said:

Looks more like a Ukrainian Mig-29.

Weirdness continues. Those were apparently R-73, at least a friend who should know claims so. In which case it was Ukrainian 29 trying to get helicopters but one missile lost a lock..

[Josh]

The Odessa landing indicates to me they are attempting to take the whole country on every front. Regime change or outright conquest. Full on occupation afterwards would be the only option. This is very surprising to me. I have fully expected a war for months, but I thought complete conquest was off the table if only for the insurgency that likely would occur afterwards.

EDIT: landings not confirmed and likely inaccurate reporting. But the air mobile operation to Kiev would clearly indicate encirclement of the capital at a minimum. There might not be a larger effort on the other side of the river outside taking Kiev, which seems more within the capability of what the Russians have fielded.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Josh

[Josh]

I wonder what sanctions will be enacted; surely this is a worst case scenario for the US/EU in terms of their response options.

[Josh]

17 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Have you got a source for that? Most of the guys whom claimed it backpedaled. It seems the offensive is being conducted purely by kit out of Crimea.

The NYTimes mentioned it but gave no details; likely they are going off the same bad info and haven't corrected it yet.

[bojan]

2 minutes ago, Josh said:

... if only for the insurgency that likely would occur afterwards.

I am not sure there would be some kind of widespread (Iraq/Afghanistan level) insurgency.

[Josh]

4 minutes ago, bojan said:

I am not sure there would be some kind of widespread (Iraq/Afghanistan level) insurgency.

Definitely nothing on that level, but I hardly think it would be completely peaceful either. It certainly would take a large protracted occupation that will tie down Russian forces, at least guard units. It's hard to picture how this improves Russian security - a massive military commitment right when NATO will double down its deployments across Eastern Europe.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Josh

[TrustMe]

It seems that after 8 years of low intensity conflict in the Ukraine East. Ukraine hasen't  prepared for war with Russia very well 😐

[KV7]

Really the whole gambit was criminally inept. Some time back in 2010 or so some parts of the Ukrainian political class decided it would be a good idea to start some 'ethnic' conflict which could only have negative effects, and then as the intensity of the conflict escalated and the possibility of a very bad rather than just moderately bad outcome became clear, no one tried to backpedal and they rather seemed to just lull themselves into thinking their western 'moral supporters' would somehow avert the worst case scenario. Those members of the politcal class are going to get their stupid prize for their stupid game but very many Ukrainians are going to pay dearly as a result of such cavalier stupidity.

Edited February 24, 2022 by KV7

[R011]

 

8 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

It seems that after 8 years of low intensity conflict in the Ukraine East. Ukraine hasen't  prepared for war with Russia very well 😐

Given what they had to work with, especially lack of funds, they"be probably done as well ad they can.  This was never going to be a fair fight even at best.

[R011]

3 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Really the whole gambit was criminally inept. Some time back in 2010 or so some parts of the Ukrainian political class decided it would be a good idea to start some 'ethnic' conflict which could only have negative effects, and then as the intensity of the conflict escalated and the possibility of a very bad rather than just moderately bad outcome became clear, no one tried to backpedal and they rather seemed to just lull themselves into thinking their western 'moral supporters' would somehow avert the worst case scenario. Those members of the politcal class are going to get their stupid prize for their stupid game but very many Ukrainians are going to pay dearly as a result of such cavalier stupidity.

Ukraine's fault for wearing a short skirt.  The slut.

[jaro]

 

Gary Kasparov has his "I told you so" moment..

[TrustMe]

It seems that the Ukraine only called up 35,000 reservists last night out of a total of 250,000 men on paper. 

The use of spies on the Russian side after pro government Ukrainians switched sides.

Russia seems to want to not inflict high casualties on the Ukrainians civilian population "Where all Russians now, ho ho".

Attacks on three fronts diluted Ukrainian concentrations of force.

A classic encirclement of Kiev seems to be Russian strategy. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by TrustMe

[jaro]

protests in St Petersburg

[bojan]

21 minutes ago, R011 said:

Ukraine's fault for wearing a short skirt.  The slut.

That is how it works in the international politics.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Friend from Kiev just wrote.

[Stargrunt6]

4 hours ago, jaro said:

Stinger...

The West should have given, not sold, given Ukraine shiploads of manpads and SAMs. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

58 minutes ago, bojan said:

Weirdness continues. Those were apparently R-73, at least a friend who should know claims so. In which case it was Ukrainian 29 trying to get helicopters but one missile lost a lock..

There was also according to one source a low level attack of Su25's that some Mig29's were going after, ive no idea if it was this engagement of course.

[jaro]

2 minutes ago, Stargrunt6 said:

The West should have given, not sold, given Ukraine shiploads of manpads and SAMs. 

as far as i know, those were gifts...

[Stuart Galbraith]

57 minutes ago, Josh said:

The Odessa landing indicates to me they are attempting to take the whole country on every front. Regime change or outright conquest. Full on occupation afterwards would be the only option. This is very surprising to me. I have fully expected a war for months, but I thought complete conquest was off the table if only for the insurgency that likely would occur afterwards.

EDIT: landings not confirmed and likely inaccurate reporting. But the air mobile operation to Kiev would clearly indicate encirclement of the capital at a minimum. There might not be a larger effort on the other side of the river outside taking Kiev, which seems more within the capability of what the Russians have fielded.

You have to bear in mind, he doesnt think there is going to be an insurgency. He thinks Ukrainians are Russians, ergo they will welcome being part of GrossRussia or whatever he is going to call it.

Yes, its nuts. But he is nuts.

[Stuart Galbraith]

40 minutes ago, R011 said:

 

Given what they had to work with, especially lack of funds, they"be probably done as well ad they can.  This was never going to be a fair fight even at best.

As said much earlier, they had 50 year old tanks. They have been sticking Nozh on T64BV's, and 4th gen TIS. Its about as much as they could do without being sold Leopards or Abrams. And even that would have made no difference without 4th gen fighters.

All that said, Russia has not made much inroads. They havent taken Kharkiv. They have not invesed Kiev. For all the speed of some units, other parts seem to be making not so much progress. And to take the country, they have a LOT of ground to cover.