Kiev Is Burning

[sunday]

11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Also. as far as i remember, Rus military engeneers somehow managed to open one of the flood gates (it was impossible to do it regular way as control system was damaged by HIMARS strikes, and dam itself was under fire of UkrArmy snipers from right bank.

Well, that should answer one of Markus' objections.

Many thanks for all that information too. Especially the cross-sections of the dam. I guess that blancolirio has not seen them yet.

[sunday]

18 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

No need to have the dam full for it.

A bit on that - There is no need to have dam full for it, now. However, after several weeks sending water to Crimea, and without without rain influx, the level decreases. So it is important to have the dam full at the end of the "wet" station.

[Josh]

18 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

They said 3715 for 281, or 13:1, which sees feasible under the conditions of an armored assault without aircover going up against enemy arty, drones, air, and mines.   Of the two figures given, I would rate the 281 Russian casualties as most likely truthful, the 3,715 an estimate that is probably prone to a certain level of exaggeration.

 

I think it is far to early to start counting heads. None one is giving out any real information yet, assuming anyone truly knows in the first place. Casualty counts at this point are merely invented.

[Josh]

15 minutes ago, seahawk said:

So a deliberate act by the Ukrainians, who controlled the dam and raised the water levels?

I think the turbine hall was under Russian control, but possession of the eastern section of the dam seems opaque.

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, seahawk said:

So a deliberate act by the Ukrainians, who controlled the dam and raised the water levels?

Pro-Ukrainians were not controlling the Kakhovka dam (but were within the range of sniper fire on it, not mentioning all other weapons). But they were controlling dams upstream Dniper and were using them to raise water level. So quite possible deliberate act, but can't rule coincidence: all Sovier infrastructure in Ukraine is very poorly maintained, starved of investments, and in combination with repeated shelling and record water levels it may result in one of the gated collapsing followed by water washing away the dam.  At least it is one of the options debated by pro-Rus community.

     Interesting the video of moment of incident is still not released.

By the way another incident that is somehow staying in the shade of offencive and dam collapse: pro-Ukrainians have destroyed pumping station on ammonium pipeline in Kharkov region (on the Tolyatti-Odessa pipeline Rus side was repeatedky asking to be reactivated as part of "grain deal"), resulting in poisonous cloud around. https://t.me/boris_rozhin/88203

Now pro-Russians are asking as if pro-Ukrainians  would do the favour of doing the same with NG pipelines - it would destroy the last straws "Appeasement of the West" was grabbing in their hopes to maintain relations with "The World" (aka Borel's garden in jungle)

[sunday]

2 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

t may result in one of the gated collapsing

Those gates are metal structures ca. 10m in height. They do not need to be very sturdy in comparison with other kind of gates used other types of big dams. I guess they would be as vulnerable to subaquatic blasts as a typical merchant ship.

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, sunday said:

A bit on that - There is no need to have dam full for it, now. However, after several weeks sending water to Crimea, and without without rain influx, the level decreases. So it is important to have the dam full at the end of the "wet" station.

Note it is old Soviet infrastructure, designed to provide massive amounts of water to Crimea to grow rice (now this sector of agriculture in Crimea is dead after 8 years of water blockade by Ukraine, and was not renewed - as rice production in Krasnodar region is enough for Russia consumption and export). There is just no way for Crimea to consume so much water it could significantly influence water level in Dniper reservoirs

The North Crimean Canal (SKK, ukr. Pivnichno-Krimsky channel (PKK)) — irrigation and irrigation canal built in 1961-1971 to provide water to the low-water and arid territories of the Kherson and Crimean regions of the Ukrainian SSR with water intake from the specially constructed Kakhovsky reservoir in the lower reaches of the Dnieper, filled in 1955-1958.

When it was opened, it was known as the North Crimean Channel named after the Leninsky Komsomol of Ukraine[2]. The width of the channel at its beginning is 150 meters, the depth is 7 meters. The average annual flow is 380 m3/s (of this volume, usually 60-80 m3/s went to the agricultural needs of the south-west of the Kherson region, 300-320 m3/s — to the Crimea). The maximum technologically possible flow is up to 500 m3/s (this is 30% of the flow of the Dnieper in its lower reaches, equal to 1670 m3/s).

Up to 80% of the Dnieper CCM water supplied to the Crimea was used for the needs of agriculture (60% of which was for rice cultivation[3]) and industrial pond fish farming; about 20% of the Dnieper CCM water was supplied to reservoirs — sources of centralized economic and drinking water supply to cities and rural settlements of the Crimea. Until 2013, the North Crimean Canal provided 80-87% of the volume of water intake to the peninsula[4][5]. In 2013, 1,553.78 million m3 were delivered to Crimea, while the total transport losses for evaporation and filtration into underground aquifers for the year amounted to 695.3 million m3[5].

In April 2014, the supply of water from the Dnieper to the Crimean Peninsula was blocked by the Ukrainian authorities.

[sunday]

Thanks, I did not know of the reduced water demand of Crimea. Looks like the likely reason for the high level of water in the reservoir was the inability to open the gates.

Edited June 7, 2023 by sunday

[glenn239]

20 minutes ago, Josh said:

I think it is far to early to start counting heads. None one is giving out any real information yet, assuming anyone truly knows in the first place. Casualty counts at this point are merely invented.

Counting equipment is more reliable, even if the occasional combine is mistaken for a tank.  What we can safely conclude is that the Ukrainians attacked in force and suffered heavy losses for no apparent gain.  If the theory was that the aggressive use of armor could make up for a lack air and artillery, it does not yet seem to be working in practice.  If the theory was that charging at Russian positions with armor would lead to the collapse of the Russian army, it does not yet seem to be working in practice.

 

[seahawk]

10 minutes ago, sunday said:

Thanks, I did not know of the reduced water demand of Crimea. Looks like the likely reason for the high level of water in the reservoir was the inability to open the gates.

As Ukrainian sniper fire made this impossible. So in combination with the opening of the dams further up river, it is clear that this was an act of ecological terrorism by the blue-yellow Nazis.

[sunday]

Did the UK supply BROACH-equipped Storm Shadows to Ukraine?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BROACH_warhead

I wonder what would be the effect of one or two hits of those in the sills of spillway gates of that dam.

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Counting equipment is more reliable, even if the occasional combine is mistaken for a tank.  What we can safely conclude is that the Ukrainians attacked in force and suffered heavy losses for no apparent gain.  If the theory was that the aggressive use of armor could make up for a lack air and artillery, it does not yet seem to be working in practice.  

It was only initial attack, to divert Rus Army attention away. Today pro-Ukrainians are attacking in Orekhov region, reportedly with aviation support - it looks more like main attack. Will see.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, sunday said:

Did the UK supply BROACH-equipped Storm Shadows to Ukraine?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BROACH_warhead

I wonder what would be the effect of one or two hits of those in the sills of spillway gates of that dam.

No, im pretty sure we used all those up destroying Nordstream 2.

 

[Strannik]

Ukraine blows up ammonia pipeline

 

 

[glenn239]

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

It was only initial attack, to divert Rus Army attention away. Today pro-Ukrainians are attacking in Orekhov region, reportedly with aviation support - it looks more like main attack. Will see.

The attacks that failed were reported to have had aviation support.   All big attacks that fail will be declared in retrospect to have been "to draw attention", whereas if they'd succeeded, they would have been the main effort.  

Edited June 7, 2023 by glenn239

[Josh]

11 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Counting equipment is more reliable

 

I didn't realize your numbers came from photographic evidence? Could you post the link?

Edited June 7, 2023 by Josh

[Josh]

11 minutes ago, sunday said:

Did the UK supply BROACH-equipped Storm Shadows to Ukraine?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BROACH_warhead

I wonder what would be the effect of one or two hits of those in the sills of spillway gates of that dam.

All storm shadows are BROACH equipped AFAIK. I've no doubt they could crack the spillway, but they could not be responsible for the total failure of the structure that we are seeing AFAIK.

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The attacks that failed were reported to have had aviation support.   All big attacks that fail will be declared in retrospect to have been "to draw attention", whereas if they'd succeeded, they would have been the main effort.  

Well, quite in line with tradition,

Treason dothe never prosper; - What's the reason?   

Why ; - if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.

[Roman Alymov]

China-made Tiger armoured cars presented among other equipment handed out by Kadyrov to Russian NatGuard units in Chechnya https://t.me/milinfolive/101829

[Roman Alymov]

Black Hornet Nano UAV set (complete with control station etc.) captured from pro-Ukrainians who were trying to attack Belgorod region https://t.me/milinfolive/101840

Other equipment from the same group https://t.me/ok_spn/25047

[crazyinsane105]

KHARKIV OBLAST, Ukraine—When Yulia’s husband, a Ukrainian soldier fighting on the front lines against Russia’s invasion, told her that 25 men in his unit had died in a single day of fighting, she was absolutely furious.

The Ukrainian woman—who lives in Kyiv and spoke under a pseudonym—told The Daily Beast she had seen photos of one of her colleagues sipping drinks in Berlin on social media earlier that day. They used to work at a foreign IT company together, she said, and he had illegally slipped out of the country. At that point, her rage for draft dodgers had peaked.

“In my former team [at work], there were eight men. Five of them left the country illegally,” she said, calling her former colleague an “arrogant prick.”

At the beginning of the war, a patriotic fervor overran Ukraine, with men and women volunteering in the tens of thousands. The borders with Poland and Moldova were thronged not just with refugees leaving the country, but with Ukrainians flocking back to take up arms to defend their country.

Now, it is a different story. A year of grueling attrition warfare has been described as ‘hell on earth’ by at least four soldiers who spoke with The Daily Beast this year, stripping much of the glamor away from combat service.

In turn, the number of Ukrainian volunteers has drastically dipped, forcing the military to rely heavily on conscription. Those drafted in that process, which is opaque and seemingly random, are often inexperienced.

In an interview with The Washington Post this spring, a Ukrainian lieutenant colonel complained that he was now leading a unit composed “entirely of inexperienced troops,” some of whom would not fire their guns because they were “afraid of the sound of the shot.”

The Daily Beast was invited to watch a combat medic with the Ukrainian Army’s Third Tank Regiment give a crash course in battlefield medicine to a group of freshly mobilized men. The new recruits had been called up to serve in the Ukrainian army as it prepares for its long-heralded counter-offensive. In recent months, Ukraine has created around a dozen new attack brigades with estimates of 40,000 additional troops ready to force the Russians back towards their own border.

“If you have a neck wound, you have 90 seconds to put on a tourniquet, told the group of soldiers in a training ground in Kharkiv Oblast near the Russian border this week. “Or you will likely die.”

His model for the demonstration was a baby-faced young man with slightly chubby cheeks and a mop of bright blond hair. He was barely 18 years old and just out of high school. Rather than preparing for university or hitting up a bar for the first time, he was getting ready to deploy to the front line as part of an assault brigade.

Sitting under a series of canopies next to him were a collection of tanks, mostly T-72 or their variants, donated by Warsaw pact countries. The tanks were well camouflaged, and the base was outside of artillery range. But as one of the soldiers pointed out, the men were not out of danger.

“Where we are now… the front line is not far away. The enemy is not far away. And they can attack us… at the distance we are right now they can attack us with unmanned aerial vehicles or missiles,” one officer said. We could hear the faint thumping of artillery in the distance, and on one occasion, an explosion uncomfortably close to us.

While many of the other observers in the group of more than 10 soldiers—(they didn’t want to disclose exact numbers)—seemed resigned to their fate, the 18-year-old recruit had been watching intently, asking questions and volunteering himself. His desire to get through this war alive was clear.

The men were all inexperienced, and notable for either their youth or older age. It was reminiscent of a line about the bedraggled defenders of Helm’s Deep in Lord of the Rings: “Most of these men have seen too many winters, or too few.”

The Ukrainian Armed Forces press officer did not respond to comment requests from The Daily Beast about Ukraine’s ability to recruit sufficient men of fighting age.

Revolving Door

The officer core were all seasoned veterans, many of them who had been fighting since 2014. That includes Yuri Kulish, the hardened deputy company commander of the 3rd Tank Brigade, who had been involved in liberating the very land we were standing on during the Kharkiv counteroffensive last year. He spent the time recalling battles and the exploits of former comrades. He was lucky to survive the pitched battles in this region.

“We were driving on the road, and turned into a forest belt, and 600 meters away from us were four Russian tanks,” he said, recalling a particularly harrowing incident last year. “They were new developments, maybe T90s… instantly I see all the tanks targeting us.”

The first hit, he said, knocked out their tank gun, and gave his driver a brain injury. He got out of the tank and started running while the Russians fired shells and tank machine gunshots at him. They drove straight towards him.

“I realized I won’t be able to run away from it… I fell on the ground and faked to be dead,” he said. He was soon saved by a Ukrainian infantryman armed with anti-tank weapons, who disabled the lead Russian tank and managed to evacuate him. His injured gunner, Losha, had to leave the armed forces, and was replaced by a 62-year-old who had been voluntarily mobilized from civilian life. He says he is proud of those who have made the impossible transition.

“These people were mobilized the same way, had civil professions, but they fearlessly went to fight, completed their tasks. And this is the most impressive thing to me,” he said. He didn’t discuss the death of his men, but the fresh faces of the new recruits who filled those gaps were telling on their own.

All this fighting has left the 3rd Tank Brigade, and all Ukraine’s armed forces, badly bloodied during the intense months of fighting on the front line. Ukraine and Russia are notoriously tight-lipped about their casualty figures, both claiming unrealistically low numbers for their own units, while vastly inflating enemy casualties. More realistic figures, provided by U.S. intelligence, suggest that both sides have taken well north of 100,000 casualties including wounded, captured and killed.

On the ground in Ukraine, however, a consistent trend has emerged. Many of Ukraine’s most experienced brigades have suffered grievously—their ranks worn down by the brutal fighting in Kharkiv, Kherson, and, most infamously, Bakhmut.

Civilians, meanwhile, are well aware that such blows up their chances of being recruited.

“Can’t go to Kherson these days… you know there is a chance to receive a mobilization ticket for Ukrainian men on the block-post at the entrance to the city in Odessa and Mykolaiv,” one translator recently told The Daily Beast when asked about joining a reporting trip to liberated Kherson. “Don’t want to risk it, sorry man!”

Some men have even complained about getting mobilization notices as “punishments” for minor infractions, such as bar fights or being caught outside after curfew. Telegram channels exist in each major city reporting sightings of teams that hand out drafts. Ukrainian media outlets have documented concerns that the wealthy have been able to bribe their way out of mobilization—either directly, or by exploiting loopholes in the exemption process, such as bribing doctors to certify them as disabled.

Ukraine has also been forced to severely curtail rest-and-rotation periods for their troops. Some have been on or near the front lines since the beginning of the full-scale invasion last February. They report being allowed a total of one and a half weeks off duty in that entire period. The army has also been recalling soldiers who had been demobilized because of injury or psychological trauma.

Everyone in Kyiv or Western Ukraine seems to know a relative, partner or a close friend on the front line. It is one of the reasons some are so lax about the dangers of drones or missile strikes—they know the risks they take are nothing compared to those fighting in Donbas or in the south. With so much riding on the upcoming counteroffensive, the Ukrainian government appears to be pushing many men and women to the limit.

For Yulia, the concern is not only about a shortage of men left to fight for Ukraine. Her frustration is also about Ukrainian values and principles.

“We say we’re fighting for democracy and European values… I just hate to see such corruption in Ukraine again and how people easily commit a felony knowing they won’t be punished,” she said.

[sunday]

8 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

“We say we’re fighting for democracy and European values… I just hate to see such corruption in Ukraine again and how people easily commit a felony knowing they won’t be punished,” she said.

This is very sad, in several levels.

There will be a well deserved reckoning for the Ukrainian leadership once this thing ends in the most likely way.

[JWB]

Residents evacuate a flooded neighborhood in the Kherson region after major flooding caused by a dam breach. 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]