Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Russian intention is probably to try to clear the 4 Oblasts they've annexed, then dig a series of fortifications so impressive that one day it might go on 23 and Me to see whether they're a decedent of the Maginot Line.  

 

At a minimum, there's no way they ever cross into Kherson city again. I'm assuming that objective was put to bed as part of the withdrawal.

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

I agree that we are mostly reactive rather than proactive. It may be partially intentional and partially... the political reality within the alliance.

We don't know how much planning is done in advance, I suppose in Poland we do quite a bit of that, I don't think our MoD declared that we'll equip a Ukrainian brigade without prior preparations, there must've been quite a bit of overhauls and maybe upgrades being done in advance. For all we know fighter aircraft intended for Ukraine may have already been selected and some pilots being trained somewhere in the US. Or suitable pilots chosen to be made into Ukrainians.

 

Poland is the positive exception to the rule. SPG, MBT, AIFV all delivered early and in quantity. 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

The majority of Russia's armed forces are against the policies of their leaders, FSB defector says (msn.com)

[BansheeOne]

So, 31 Abrams for Ukraine. That's either a Soviet-type battalion, or maybe they'll stick them together with the Challengers. Would be a bit of a white elephant unit though.

[bojan]

Ukrainians use Soviet style 3/10/31 org. As seen i battleorder's video about UA mech infantry, that one is also pretty same as late Soviet and Russian org.

[crazyinsane105]

18 hours ago, bojan said:

Impossible, we have all those twatterati and not one poster here claiming that they are shit and dog food and all expired anyway and meat is probably chopped down civilians or cats and dogs at best  

More seriously as а lot of people have noted Russian MREs are quite good, about as close to "home cooking" you can get in the canned/processed food. Their disadvantage, especially with some types that use old school cans is that they are heavy compared to dehydrated version, but as benefit can be eaten w/o preparing them.

No shit, other than committing potential war crime (like anyone would care...) he effectively killed and wounded bunch of people on his own side by shooting surrendering guy.

Fantastic, sounds so familiar, but in totally alien language. My grandmother would have loved it, she listened to any such schlager songs , never mind a language. 

This was also noted by a lot of Ukrainian soldiers, they are not liked in the east, even by those that officially support Ukrainian army. I guess foreigners fighting for VSU are probably even more disliked.

 

More or less, the Ukrainian military from 2014 till 2022 had a number of individuals in its ranks who were notorious for harassing locals in the east. Harassing in terms of, making life difficult for people coming from Russian controlled areas into Ukraine (bribes were higher, soldiers were drunk on duty, etc.) 

Not like things were really that better on the Russian side, but at least those folk were from the east, so more tolerated by local population. Many Ukrainian soldiers were originally from West Ukraine, so that behavior made it worse for them

[crazyinsane105]

41 minutes ago, JWB said:

The majority of Russia's armed forces are against the policies of their leaders, FSB defector says (msn.com)

Defectors will say anything to please Western media outlets.

 

Plenty of evidence, from third party reporting, which shows the vast majority of Russians (both in military and the war) support this war. Russian security services for internal purposes is damn large as well, several hundred thousand officers and police. So defection of a few here and there isn't really telling of attitudes in Russia.

[RETAC21]

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

I didn't see that, actually.

"Spiegel" reports the initial plan is for two battalions of about 40 each; one with Leopard 2A6 from Germany, the Netherlands, Spain (? Would have to be the local Leopardo 2E variant) and Finland, the other with A4 from Poland and Norway. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there's some mixups in there. There's potential for another two battalions by my list, but then we're probably talking of end of this/start of next year rather than late March to early May as with the first two. A third battalion to be formed with Abrams, but also thought to take months or, pessimistically, years.

Spain's number are the 53 A4s that are stored pending refurbishment and conversion to engineer vehicles "sometime in the future, when money is available" - ie, never. These were already turned down by a number of prospective owners due to the high cost of their refurbishment, and tank 54 (half of the tanks leased then acquired) is in the museum already, so they are in serious need of repair and that's not going to happen overnight.

[BansheeOne]

That "Spiegel" report makes not much sense overall. I could guess that they mixed up their Iberians and the "Spanish" A6 are actually the four suggested to come from Portugal, though that still leaves four to eight which would have to come from Finland and/or another A6 owner. Also I don't see how Poland and Norway between themselves would provide 40 A4 with the numbers mentioned for them previously.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, JWB said:

The majority of Russia's armed forces are against the policies of their leaders, FSB defector says (msn.com)

Key word is missing in this headline, let me correct it: "The majority of Russia's armed forces TOP BRASS are against the policies of their leaders, FSB defector says".

Here is the explanation (Yandex-translation from original https://t.me/chadayevru/1282 )

Fear of victory and hope of defeat

This formula was born in a conversation with Sergey Pereslegin back in December, when we were designing at a KTsPN (Coordonation centre for helping Novorossia  - RA) seminar on thinking in war. On Monday, I used it on the air of "Time will Tell", and now I will expand what is meant.

Describing the structure of Russian society as it has been for all 30 post-Soviet years, one important detail cannot be ignored. The level of integration into the "global world" was at the same time an indicator of a high social status in the local pyramid. Conditionally, the most "successful" lived "there" with almost all of themselves — accounts, real estate, families, children's education, etc., and here there was only "hunting territory". The average ones flaunted their photos from tourist trips — who are richer from the States and Europe, who are poorer from all-inclusive in Turkey and Tae, and boasted of successful shopping and branded (or quasi-branded) clothes at Milan and Anatolian sales. And even the simplest ones slowly learned the synonyms of a successful life — "renovation", "iPhone", "McDonald's", etc. Separate "connectors" were for startups and IT specialists — access to global markets (including investment markets), for scientists — publications on Scopus, for politicians — visibility in the world media, for cultural figures — awards and incentives "there", etc.d.

The fact that the current situation is not just a border war, but a conflict with the entire global West, calls into question the entire architecture of such a pyramid. And there is no doubt that even a decisive military victory over Ukraine, if it were won, only aggravates the situation: everything for which they lived, what they focused on and what they adjusted their life strategies for, in this case, will surely turn (and so it has almost turned) into sand.

But there is still a weak, illusory chance, a hope at least in some form to return everything as it was: for this you need to lose. Then Russia, of course, will be punished, but basically the "regime" and the "simple people" who have not dared to throw off its yoke; and "normal people", even if they have bought off some kind of contribution, will again have the opportunity to strive for that shining world, the dream of which was the meaning of their lives. And in this sense, defeat "by score", without the collapse of the entire system, but simply fixing failure and renouncing claims, even with the loss of all "new territories", including Crimea, is almost an ideal scenario for getting out of the situation, the main thing is to endure and wait until "these old men" and "morons in uniform" will finally fail.

Such sentiments exist in the business elite, and among officials (especially beneficiaries of corrupt rent), and even among the military and "siloviki" (the same officials, only in uniform). For them, the reality before 02/24/12 was exactly the "norm", and everything that happened from that moment was a personal disaster. And any possible military successes will only aggravate it, make it irreversible. That is why — the fear of victory and the hope of defeat.

On the other side are all those who fundamentally DO NOT consider this colonial order of things a normal and decent state of our society. But their percentage is steadily falling as they move from the bottom up along this very pyramid, which is not surprising. And if we talk about risks, then this is our most important risk today.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Defectors will say anything to please Western media outlets.

 

Plenty of evidence, from third party reporting, which shows the vast majority of Russians (both in military and the war) support this war. Russian security services for internal purposes is damn large as well, several hundred thousand officers and police. So defection of a few here and there isn't really telling of attitudes in Russia.

Quite likly he is from the circles where this moods are actually wide spread. I have predicted it  (see https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38893-kiev-is-burning/page/2263/#comment-1627342 ,  " I think when they will realize that - we will see the chain of high-level defections of former officials who will now seek personal escape, since they can't escape as political group. ")

Personally, i would prefer to see this people leaving  - as their presence on their positions is significantly harming war efforts. De-facto pro-Russians fight in two fronts - against open enemy on frontline and against own rulling elite.

Another Yandex-translated text from my friend Murz ( https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/1285 )

For two decades, corruption has been the main mechanism of government in our country. And then the war begins, and it turns out (https://t.me/chadayevru/1282 ), that the more people stole and, accordingly, exported money, the more they are interested in the defeat of Russia.

Chadaev, listing influential groups within the country interested in Russia's defeat, writes "especially the beneficiaries of corrupt rent."

Those who did not understand all this either from the very beginning, back in the 2000th, or after the first or after the second Minsk <agreements> (surprisingly, there are such people, and there are a lot of them), will have a painful realization of a simple thing.

Our elite, rushing to "quickly change the government in Kiev" and failing everything possible, wants to negotiate. Not to win, but to negotiate.

And the enemy, the real enemy, and not his "proxy", long and lovingly created with a single purpose - for a non-nuclear war with Russia, will not agree, otherwise than on the surrender of Russia.

Winning the war against the will of the military-political leadership of the state is a very interesting task.

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Stefan Kotsch]

Again and again this defiant ' We don't need you.  Go away.  We don't need anything from anyone.'

😏

[Roman Alymov]

6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Germany cannot simply "declare war". And if it could, it would only be valid if sent by fax.😋

Original statement

 

[ZORK]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Key word is missing in this headline, let me correct it: "The majority of Russia's armed forces TOP BRASS are against the policies of their leaders, FSB defector says".

Here is the explanation (Yandex-translation from original https://t.me/chadayevru/1282 )

Fear of victory and hope of defeat

This formula was born in a conversation with Sergey Pereslegin back in December, when we were designing at a KTsPN (Coordonation centre for helping Novorossia  - RA) seminar on thinking in war. On Monday, I used it on the air of "Time will Tell", and now I will expand what is meant.

Describing the structure of Russian society as it has been for all 30 post-Soviet years, one important detail cannot be ignored. The level of integration into the "global world" was at the same time an indicator of a high social status in the local pyramid. Conditionally, the most "successful" lived "there" with almost all of themselves — accounts, real estate, families, children's education, etc., and here there was only "hunting territory". The average ones flaunted their photos from tourist trips — who are richer from the States and Europe, who are poorer from all-inclusive in Turkey and Tae, and boasted of successful shopping and branded (or quasi-branded) clothes at Milan and Anatolian sales. And even the simplest ones slowly learned the synonyms of a successful life — "renovation", "iPhone", "McDonald's", etc. Separate "connectors" were for startups and IT specialists — access to global markets (including investment markets), for scientists — publications on Scopus, for politicians — visibility in the world media, for cultural figures — awards and incentives "there", etc.d.

The fact that the current situation is not just a border war, but a conflict with the entire global West, calls into question the entire architecture of such a pyramid. And there is no doubt that even a decisive military victory over Ukraine, if it were won, only aggravates the situation: everything for which they lived, what they focused on and what they adjusted their life strategies for, in this case, will surely turn (and so it has almost turned) into sand.

But there is still a weak, illusory chance, a hope at least in some form to return everything as it was: for this you need to lose. Then Russia, of course, will be punished, but basically the "regime" and the "simple people" who have not dared to throw off its yoke; and "normal people", even if they have bought off some kind of contribution, will again have the opportunity to strive for that shining world, the dream of which was the meaning of their lives. And in this sense, defeat "by score", without the collapse of the entire system, but simply fixing failure and renouncing claims, even with the loss of all "new territories", including Crimea, is almost an ideal scenario for getting out of the situation, the main thing is to endure and wait until "these old men" and "morons in uniform" will finally fail.

Such sentiments exist in the business elite, and among officials (especially beneficiaries of corrupt rent), and even among the military and "siloviki" (the same officials, only in uniform). For them, the reality before 02/24/12 was exactly the "norm", and everything that happened from that moment was a personal disaster. And any possible military successes will only aggravate it, make it irreversible. That is why — the fear of victory and the hope of defeat.

On the other side are all those who fundamentally DO NOT consider this colonial order of things a normal and decent state of our society. But their percentage is steadily falling as they move from the bottom up along this very pyramid, which is not surprising. And if we talk about risks, then this is our most important risk today.

Thank you for this post. I think I am understanding much more clearly what you have been conveying many times.

Definitely a world wide problem...but also brings feelings of betrayal and frustration for the extent it is obvious.

My question is what direction do you want your country to go, and what is the process and price for going that way.

What is valued?

[Burncycle360]

How is Ukraine able to train to effectively utilize this variety of equipment in such a short period of time?

Where does the equipment enter into the country from, and is Russia attempting to interdict this at all once it crosses the border?
 

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, Burncycle360 said:

How is Ukraine able to train to effectively utilize this variety of equipment in such a short period of time?

Where does the equipment enter into the country from, and is Russia attempting to interdict this at all once it crosses the border?
 

They do not need to train to use this equipment effectively - only to use it to starting level  (basic driving and shooting). No reason to expect crews trained for years - they do not need it for this type of war.

Re "attempting to interdict this at all once it crosses the border" - Russia is continuing to supply Ukraine with natural gas, and reportedly with diesel fuel (from Lukoil refinery in Bulgaria), no reason to expect decicive measures from Russian leadership to interdict weapons supply, at least at this stage.

[Roman Alymov]

Patrick Lancaster investigating Himars craters and making conclusions on how missiles are used (he believe it is pairs - one pennetrating HE, one airburst Frag on abpout the same point)

 

 

[Yama]

On 1/25/2023 at 2:04 AM, bojan said:

Impossible, we have all those twatterati and not one poster here claiming that they are shit and dog food and all expired anyway and meat is probably chopped down civilians or cats and dogs at best  

More seriously as а lot of people have noted Russian MREs are quite good, about as close to "home cooking" you can get in the canned/processed food. Their disadvantage, especially with some types that use old school cans is that they are heavy compared to dehydrated version, but as benefit can be eaten w/o preparing them.

I think at this day & age it is no longer hard to make good quality MRE's, it's not rokkit science and commercial competition in ready made/convenience foodstuffs is huge. I think any complaints over some particular country's rations are probably grognardism 

 

On 1/25/2023 at 2:04 AM, bojan said:

No shit, other than committing potential war crime (like anyone would care...) he effectively killed and wounded bunch of people on his own side by shooting surrendering guy.

Yes and our poster flat out called it a war crime multiple occasions and seemed fairly bitter over the episode. And militarily a huge cock-up, as in following firefight half their platoon was killed or wounded in stead of which might have been a bloodless victory.

There's a caveat that his account was second hand, he wasn't present during the fight, only heard of it from his friends and was shown the battle site, and bodies still lying there. The medic guy had his own separate thread on same board, but unfortunately he removed his postings due OpSec concerns, before I got a chance to read them.

 

On 1/25/2023 at 2:04 AM, bojan said:

This was also noted by a lot of Ukrainian soldiers, they are not liked in the east, even by those that officially support Ukrainian army. I guess foreigners fighting for VSU are probably even more disliked.

It's something he also mentioned in separate occasion, that when you went towards the East, elderly people were often pretty openly pro-Russian, and were sometimes suspected for being spies or providing coordinates for Russians, rightly or wrongly.

He said - and this is obviously just common sense - that in warn-torn country people have to be careful what they say. If a gossip gets out somebody is a Russian agent, consequences could be very serious even if it was originally said in jest. "Due process" might mean tied in a chair in a dark cellar, canvas bag around your head.

Oh and Nissan was indeed bought from Finland, he drove it all the way there. He paid last installments last month

Edited January 26, 2023 by Yama

[Detonable]

On 1/24/2023 at 5:39 PM, Yama said:

Maybe. As Roman said, 'Spetsnaz' is just a catchall term anyway. American team has footage of the battle which they are in process of putting up to youtube, interesting to see it from their perspective 

-Anyway, rest of the battle was somewhat less dramatic. Third day he was back on action, they spent their day checking out buildings. Other platoon was hit by cluster munition and took some losses. They didn't meet Russians, but found some houses where they had kept quarters, and looted RPG's and MRE's (he says Russian MRE's are very good, and popular war booty). Russian drone directed artillery would fire into town, but apparently not that severely.

-4th day, action concludes. They get an order that if they find any fresh graves, they must be opened  fortuitously, none were found. Some civilians, mostly elderly, are met. Other platoon has a firefight (details not given). Other group captures three POWs, one of whom was an university guy who could speak English. Any way, that concluded battle of Petropavlivka. 

Picture of the Nissan:

-After the battle, American squad leader explained the shooting as 'breakdown in communications' but Finns were angry at him, and relationship between the teams broke down.

If someone wonders who Kake Randelin is, the guy whose Greatest Hits-CD was so cruelly destroyed by BMP, he's a schlager singer who was popular in the 1980's:

-Any way, during October his postings gradually became more disinterested. In December he revealed he has returned to Finland, for good, and didn't really care about following war anymore. He said all his best war buddies were KIA or had returned home.

-About earlier post, I was wrong about identity of his platoon leader - he was not Ralf Sirén, who had already returned to Finland at that point. 'Alfa' seems to have also been some different fighter.

-Eastern Front mud - yes it is really horrible once it really sets in. Even with 4x4 you often got stuck, and they often broke down due to overuse. Also mud gets into weapons, barrels, everywhere.

-Basic consumables, they were not really in shortage as half the world delivers them to Ukraine. Fighters would also buy food and drinks from shops. Our fighter himself mentions buying lots of energy drinks.

-Towards the end, he said he began to feel like 'his head was about to explode' so he requested transfer to rear area duty, which was granted. 

-He began to work in logistics, but quickly became even more frustrated. They were somewhere in Luhansk "10+km from the front", and had to pay rent out of their own pocket (??). Their landlord was an asshole who kept pestering them, shouting at them in Russian and pilfered their firewood. Due to general disinterest and shortage of personnel, even basic things like food and firewood supply more or less collapsed, and people mostly just ate MRE's (which seem to be very plentiful). 

-Finally, his comrade who was paying rent, was killed. He "didn't want to see what happens next" so he terminated his contract.

And that's it, he has twitter account (mostly Finnish) and probably will release some more videos later (he said he has 21 hours of unedited footage).

  Does this mean the Ukranians have penetrated into pro-Russian territory?

[seahawk]

10 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Original statement

 

This gives Russia the needed legitimation to hit targets in Poland or Germany.

[Roman Alymov]

22 minutes ago, Detonable said:

  Does this mean the Ukranians have penetrated into pro-Russian territory?

Yes, since at least 2014.

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, seahawk said:

This gives Russia the needed legitimation to hit targets in Poland or Germany.

I do not think Russian leadership would dare to do it. But it does not mean targets are safe if their destruction is somehow benefitial to US&Co - NS also was not in Russian waters, but still it was blown. 

[kokovi]

11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Original statement

 

Whatever she is saying is legally non-binding. Our basic law/constitution has no rule to declare war on another country. That is even declared a criminal act and will lead to a very long time in prison. There is only a provision to declare that we are now defending ourselves in case we (or an ally) gets attacked or in case an attack is imminent.