Kiev Is Burning

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

And what's in it for you to ask that question? No, I did not, I have prior business arrangements made before the training was announced, believe it or not, I have to work for a living.

Thank you for clarifying that.

 Huba, same question.  Have you signed up for military training under the new Polish program?

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, Adam_S said:

 

More or less, just a signal to Russia, nothing else. No way in a million years will NATO accept Ukraine as part of its alliance while it’s in the middle of the largest ground war to take place in Europe since 1945

[JWB]

 

Russians are calling up the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence asking how to surrender, Ukraine says | Businessinsider

[ex2cav]

3 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Ok at that point I’m at a loss what the goal is for Russia to do this 🤷‍♀️ 

I am not suggesting they didn’t do this as they have done enough crap so far to hurt themselves horribly. I just don’t know what they will get from this 

Exactly. They gain nothing from destroying their own infrastructure. It is easy to believe, as "everyone knows Russians are crazy enough to do this". That said, again, they gain nothing from blowing up their own infrastructure in an area that is close to Nato countries. 

[ex2cav]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Russian mobilization is much larger than advertised.  Soon, presumably, the decisions will be made on the use of nuclear weapons, formal declarations of war and demands for unconditional surrender, etc.  For now presumably Russia is in no hurry, for during the period of mobilization the Russians will want peace, just like how they tried to lull Germany in 1914.   Far from a unified front to get more involved, Europe will become more divided as the crisis deepens.

I think NATO trainers are already fully involved in preparing Ukrainian troops inside NATO territory.  Sending them into Ukraine seems unlikely, they'll bring the Ukrainians to the trainers.

 The  NATO infrastructure interesting to Russia are the satellites and GPS platforms supporting the Ukrainian war, not pipelines. 

I agree with you that the mobilization will be vastly larger than advertised. It will be the only way they will be able to counter the Ukie/Nato mobilization.

I also agree the Nato troops are in country training, equipping, advising, planning already. Likely from day 1. What I suspect that going forward Nato troops will be too large to conceal, or more likely they will want the world and Russia to know that Nato troops are there. 

The pipelines were important to Russia and they were a guaranteed revenue stream when turned on. Noteworthy they were also partially owned by Germany. The gas was used to fuel economies throughout Europe. Blowing them up, I would argue, was a hostile act on the EU as well, and Germany specifically. Who did it is up in the air, and rational consideration without more information is difficult in the elevated emotional times. 

If the Russians didn't blow up their own pipelines, whoever did is not concerned about Russian retaliation or the escalation. Or perhaps they expect it. It worries me. I would expect escalation will continue for the foreseeable future.

You mention satellites and GPS platforms. They are an operation worry the Russians may not have the resources to deal with. 

 

[ex2cav]

55 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

More or less, just a signal to Russia, nothing else. No way in a million years will NATO accept Ukraine as part of its alliance while it’s in the middle of the largest ground war to take place in Europe since 1945

Several months ago I would've agreed. Now it seems western capitals seem to be enjoying the war from afar and are living the glory vicariously. Reading the "news" and social media, it seems to be clouding thinking so I am I am not holding my breath. 

[Ssnake]

13 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

They gain nothing from blowing up their own infrastructure in an area that is close to Nato countries. 

Isn't it obvious? They lose nothing by doing it.

At the same time it's an obvious and credible threat, another step on the escalation ladder. For Putin it's not longer about winning individual chips at the table. With the annexation he has gone all in. By blowing his own shit up he can gauge how serious the unity of the EU and NATO is. The EU by and large has already given up of importing energy from Russia, and isn't coming back as a customer in his lifetime. Both pipelines were utterly worthless even before they had holes.

It was as close to the borders of a NATO member as it gets. It's a move that offers plausible deniability. At the same time everybody (except the professionally clueless) immediately understands that the Don Sends a Message. Now NATO and EU will have to decide if they are willing to risk this escalation in support of Ukraine.

 

(By "professionally clueless" I'm referring to booksmart people who believe in the Harvard Mediation Technique and that literally everybody is interested in "win-win" solutions and are unable to recognize motivations that are radically different from their own world view.)

[Adam_S]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

More or less, just a signal to Russia, nothing else. No way in a million years will NATO accept Ukraine as part of its alliance while it’s in the middle of the largest ground war to take place in Europe since 1945

Agreed. At this point in time, it's basically just a bit, fat f*** you to Putin.

[crazyinsane105]

This wasn’t a bad analysis. More or less, Russia has pulled 700-800 tanks from its reserve and is sending them to be requipped and towards Ukraine. They have about three years left of reserve tanks. If anything, they will run out of competent tank crews well before they run out of tanks. 

[crazyinsane105]

41 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

Several months ago I would've agreed. Now it seems western capitals seem to be enjoying the war from afar and are living the glory vicariously. Reading the "news" and social media, it seems to be clouding thinking so I am I am not holding my breath. 

Some Western countries, sure. Not all though, and certainly not Turkey. 

[Adam_S]

Can anybody explain WTF is going on here?

 

[Josh]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Russian mobilization may have changed tactics on the ground, ie, that the Russian army is to no longer trade ground to avoid casualties.

I’d still be worried about equipment and there’s no reason to just throw men away, particularly the best trained ones.

the situation isn’t clear; maybe it isn’t surrounded yet. But it has seemed clear days ago that it will be and that there’s no means for the Russians to break through. I would have pulled back, personally.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, Adam_S said:

Can anybody explain WTF is going on here?

 

Atomic Cavalry is all.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, urbanoid said:

 

At last, a realistic battlefield assessment. But maybe a few more Dinosaurs, and a couple less war elephants.

 

[Perun]

[bd1]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Thank you for clarifying that.

 Huba, same question.  Have you signed up for military training under the new Polish program?

roman has been calling to invade ukraine, now that his countrymen HAVE to do what he wants. his fellow russians have to fight for him, while he posts on the couch. 

your question would be rightful, if poland would officially militarily enter the conflict. 

but ,  as always, your main intention is just to keep babbling, endlessly, posts after posts after post, and you culd go oen and oen, with little nutritional value.....

[sunday]

5 hours ago, Ssnake said:

Isn't it obvious? They lose nothing by doing it.

At the same time it's an obvious and credible threat, another step on the escalation ladder. For Putin it's not longer about winning individual chips at the table. With the annexation he has gone all in. By blowing his own shit up he can gauge how serious the unity of the EU and NATO is. The EU by and large has already given up of importing energy from Russia, and isn't coming back as a customer in his lifetime. Both pipelines were utterly worthless even before they had holes.

It was as close to the borders of a NATO member as it gets. It's a move that offers plausible deniability. At the same time everybody (except the professionally clueless) immediately understands that the Don Sends a Message. Now NATO and EU will have to decide if they are willing to risk this escalation in support of Ukraine.

 

(By "professionally clueless" I'm referring to booksmart people who believe in the Harvard Mediation Technique and that literally everybody is interested in "win-win" solutions and are unable to recognize motivations that are radically different from their own world view.)

Assessing motive when facts are pending clarification could lead to mistakes.

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, bd1 said:

roman has been calling to invade ukraine, now that his countrymen HAVE to do what he wants. his fellow russians have to fight for him, while he posts on the couch. 

your question would be rightful, if poland would officially militarily enter the conflict. 

but ,  as always, your main intention is just to keep babbling, endlessly, posts after posts after post, and you culd go oen and oen, with little nutritional value.....

If Poland enters the conflict, it will be as part of larger coalition, so there won't be any need to mobilise and train completely green civilians, there won't be any place for them in the military. The training organised by Polish military for civilians will be in large part about basic survival and first aid skills and this is its biggest value, not shooting and throwing grenades (no live-fire exercises planned though).

Conventionally Russia won't be a threat (to NATO) for a long time to come. I doubt if they can even replace the material losses they suffered so far within a decade. And it's not the end of their losses, maybe we have just reached 'the end of the beginning'.

[Yama]

Ka-52 hits an indeterminate object (some AFV I presume) at very long range (with Gorky Park playing, very nostalgic)

https://t.me/rusich_army/5461

Illustrates why gun systems tend to be passé in SHORAD role. If the terrain is open, helicopters will easily outrange any gun.

Any way, pro-Russian sources today claim that Zarichne-Kreminna road is still under Russian control, but forest region south of it is 'contested'.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Yama

[R E lee]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

At last, a realistic battlefield assessment. But maybe a few more Dinosaurs, and a couple less war elephants.

 

Your forgetting the latest camelion class of AFVs, may be 000s of them, or maybe none at all, hard to tell till they move😜

[RETAC21]

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Thank you for clarifying that.

 Huba, same question.  Have you signed up for military training under the new Polish program?

Since you haven't served a day in your life, why do you care about others?

[RETAC21]

14 minutes ago, Yama said:

Ka-52 hits an indeterminate object (some AFV I presume) at very long range (with Gorky Park playing, very nostalgic)

https://t.me/rusich_army/5461

Illustrates why gun systems tend to be passé in SHORAD role. If the terrain is open, helicopters will easily outrange any gun.

Given that we can't see shit about what it hit (a house, a tree, the ground?) definitely it should get closer to get a proper ID, possibly within range of SHORAD...

[Samsa]

14 minutes ago, Yama said:

Ka-52 hits an indeterminate object (some AFV I presume) at very long range (with Gorky Park playing, very nostalgic)

https://t.me/rusich_army/5461

Illustrates why gun systems tend to be passé in SHORAD role. If the terrain is open, helicopters will easily outrange any gun.

Any way, pro-Russian sources today claim that Zarichne-Kreminna road is still under Russian control, but forest region south of it is 'contested'.

It'll be very interesting to read what the experiences with Gepard were after this. We have seen some helis flying very close to enemy positions, so I can imagine them still having some success when the crews know what their limitations are. Also not only vs helis but also vs fixed wings dropping dumb bombs from low altitude, as we have seen in a few videos as well.

[Sardaukar]

https://www.armytimes.com/off-duty/military-culture/2022/10/01/zelenskyy-to-russians-get-names-tattooed-so-we-can-id-your-corpses

Zelenskyy to Russians: Get names tattooed so we can ID your corpses.

🤣

Now, that is good one.

[Yama]

22 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Given that we can't see shit about what it hit (a house, a tree, the ground?) definitely it should get closer to get a proper ID, possibly within range of SHORAD...

Yea can't say if it hit the intended target, or just ground/tree front of it. Still, explosion looks somewhat bigger than just the missile warhead going off.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Yama