seahawk Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 The West will never allow Russia to fix itself, because if Russia would fix itself, it would be more powerful than the west and the west won´t have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 minute ago, seahawk said: The West will never allow Russia to fix itself, because if Russia would fix itself, it would be more powerful than the west and the west won´t have that. In this logic, how it became possible that West created economic giant out of China? Back in 1990th, economy of Soviet Ukraine alone was bigger then one of China, if i remember correctly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawk Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Wait till China really challenges for the global leadership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Markus Becker Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Actually the Russian economy is imploding. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargrunt6 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 On 7/26/2022 at 9:19 AM, Strannik said: Amazing insight ;) “I think this is going to cause us to rethink… some of the spending priorities in the next decade,” Hayes said. Best response: Missile salesman will say this until the next Thunder Run happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Markus Becker said: Actually the Russian economy is imploding. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/ I don't think anybody speculated that Russia's economy was going to get away unscathed. I think the larger issue though is that the current set of sanctions hasn't necessarily sent the shockwave we thought it would, and overall Russia's economy is a bit more resilient to these sanctions than previously thought. While life has definitely gotten harder for your ordinary Russian, it hasn't at all stopped the Russian government from pressing on its Ukraine campaign (which was the entire point of the sanctions). And it is undeniable that the Russian initiated war in Ukraine has caused economic hardships around the world, just when economies were supposed to start recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. Taken as a whole, much of the Western world is also getting punched in the gut as well. Smaller nations are getting punched really really hard. So...yeah, not a great economic situation for any country right now. To add to it, there are now more individuals in the Republican Party who are coming out and asking for an end to the aid to Ukraine. And these voices are getting louder, not quieter. With a GOP takeover in the elections taking place later this winter almost a guarantee at this point, it's going to be interesting to see if this can even be achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yama Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: I'm affraid i have nothing to say about "big" Russian drones operations, so below is Yandex-translation of article about them, overoptimistic (as it is "optimistic" site - original here https://tsargrad.tv/articles/voshod-oriona-russkie-ptichki-gotovy-dratsja-v-nebe-donbassa_579368 Thank you, very interesting. So the article claims that Kronstadt has already produced 8 complexes, which would mean 48 drones. That sounds kinda lot: 6 drones for just 1 control station? Somewhere (I don't remember where) it read that before the war, Russia had just 1 complex and 3-4 drones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Better pictures of Bayractar retranslator https://t.me/voenacher/25998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, Yama said: Thank you, very interesting. So the article claims that Kronstadt has already produced 8 complexes, which would mean 48 drones. That sounds kinda lot: 6 drones for just 1 control station? Somewhere (I don't remember where) it read that before the war, Russia had just 1 complex and 3-4 drones. 48 drones in total for a war taking place across a near 1000 km front, and who knows how deep these drones need to fly… Yeah, the Russians severely underestimated how many drones they needed for a war of this scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said: 48 drones in total for a war taking place across a near 1000 km front, and who knows how deep these drones need to fly… Yeah, the Russians severely underestimated how many drones they needed for a war of this scale Our Gov was busy stockpiling billions of USD nominated value in treasuries and other simmilar assets in Western banks, not investing them in local workers and machinery..... Edited July 28, 2022 by Roman Alymov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ssnake Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said: While life has definitely gotten harder for your ordinary Russian, it hasn't at all stopped the Russian government from pressing on its Ukraine campaign (which was the entire point of the sanctions). That would have been the "ideal" result, but I don't think that this was a serious expectation by anyone. Claiming otherwise sounds a bit like a straw man to me. Anyway, the sanctions are to drive up the costs of the current Russian foreign policy and thus to create a deterrence to further military aggression, or failing that, to reduce Russia's ability to do so effectively. Also, to create domestic pressure on Putin and the people supporting him. At the same time, sanctions are like increasing pressure on an evacuated vessel. Eventually it's going to cave in, maybe just a little, maybe a lot more, but it's nearly impossible to predict where exactly it will start to bend, and how the final shape will look like. National economies are complex, every embargo will create counter-reactions by individuals and by the embargoed state to reduce the effect. Trade barriers do not necessarily stop trade, but reroute it just like a new construction site opening at rush hour in Manhattan. Yes, short term it gets a lot of people angry and stuck longer in traffic. Eventually drivers will learn to bypass, and/or detour signs appear. Expectations beyond that simply aren't realistic. Nevertheless, export bans on microprocessors for example have the potential to be a very serious restriction for the Russian economy, starting from military guidance systems to consumer goods (e.g. that new Lada car without airbags, anti-blocking system, and other safety and convenience features missing; sure, cars in the 1970s didn't have them either and they still got the basic transportation job done despite these gadgets, but outside Russia that car is practically unsellable, and many Russians will probably try and keep their old cars driving longer rather than replace them with one of these). Likewise, Russian aerospace industry will struggle to develop a completely domestic alternative to civilian passenger jets from Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, or Chinese jets that is economically viable outside of Russia, and that will receive international safety certifications. None of that will make the Russian economy "collapse". But it will seriously hurt long-term growth potential, and with it, the tax base to finance greater military ambition. So, no: Stopping the war in Ukraine was not the "entire" point of the sanctions, not even the major point. It is about reducing the threat potential of Russia in the decades to follow by eroding the economic base on which the whole system rests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ssnake Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said: Taken as a whole, much of the Western world is also getting punched in the gut as well. Eh. Russia's economy might shrink 10% this year. Europe's growth is probably going to be cut from 3.5% to 1.2%. In a five to ten year-span, one is a small blip on a wiggly line. The other is a sharp drop that will eventually recover - at a lower level, and with an overall reduced growth rate, so the prosperity gap will only widen over the decade to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: Re "the West still sent you grain so you could feed your people" - was this grain sent for free? As far as i remember, USSR grain import was paid in hard currency (not some kind of treasuries or palaces for elite on Baikal lake). As I recall most was bought by the USSR, because the Collective Farm system was an utter failure. I know we gifted a bunch of grain but I am not sure if any went to the Soviet Union, likley North Korea. The fact that Russia managed to be the worlds top grain exporter shows the potentiel that the country has, but it is the people you elect that decide how competitive you can be. The Chinese have always been industrious and business minded. Likely the Serf to Communist mindset forced onto much of the population did not encourage the average Russian to innovate as much as they should have. At the end of the day, Russia should have focused it's efforts on improving life for it;s citizens and not going on ill planned military adventures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 24 minutes ago, Colin said: As I recall most was bought by the USSR, because the Collective Farm system was an utter failure. I know we gifted a bunch of grain but I am not sure if any went to the Soviet Union, likley North Korea. The fact that Russia managed to be the worlds top grain exporter shows the potentiel that the country has, but it is the people you elect that decide how competitive you can be. The Chinese have always been industrious and business minded. Likely the Serf to Communist mindset forced onto much of the population did not encourage the average Russian to innovate as much as they should have. At the end of the day, Russia should have focused it's efforts on improving life for it;s citizens and not going on ill planned military adventures. I mean, if you want to go on military adventures, at least do it right. The Russians have shown significant failures in this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perun Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 On 7/27/2022 at 10:26 PM, crazyinsane105 said: Militia guys were mostly men who didn’t have the greatest backgrounds, or the best job prospects, and were given a rifle (or whatever weapon assigned to them). For the most part they left other folks alone, but on occasion they did take advantage and Rob folks, and one day they really beat the hell out of a senior citizen for fun. This was just in Gorlovka, I can’t say for certain how things were all over the East. To be fair, the Ukrainian military that was deployed to the front line not far from Gorlovka acted in a similar fashion, and my wife, whenever she did go to meet her parents, saw the Ukrainian soldiers on the front ( she had to cross through multiple checkpoints) as a lot more undisciplined than the militias in DNR and LNR. Which did surprise me, but the way she explained it…Ukrainian military deployed on the front were mostly guys from Western Ukraine, and didn’t particularly like eastern Ukrainians. So their treatment towards folks from East Ukraine wasn’t great either. My family grew to hate the soldiers on both sides. The Russian soldiers…they never had an issue with them. But they only saw them in 2014-2015, and obviously in the days leading up to Feb 24. Those guys more or less kept their heads low and didn’t engage much with the locals. I’m assuming these were the better trained guys and not just conscripts Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 13 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: Note i am not saying anything like "blaming West" - as i have said of course West/Western politicians and business elite benefited greately from using fruits of USSR collapse, and did a lot to make results of this collapse more harmful, but this collapse itself was caused by internal reasons (the same way as current decay of West is caused not by Russia/China/Iran/UFO, but by internal reasons). But my idea (expressed here many times) is reducing corrupt links with West will significantly reduce the complexity of the task of fixing Russia internally. Re "the West still sent you grain so you could feed your people" - was this grain sent for free? As far as i remember, USSR grain import was paid in hard currency (not some kind of treasuries or palaces for elite on Baikal lake). Such as how? Overlooking the undeniable hazard of a possible Third world war poppping up every couple of decades or so, the economic benefits of the Cold War were clear. Id argue that the 'Peace Dividend' was a net negative across the board. It meant we closed our tank factories, so all the component manufacturers went out of business too. Suddenly all those stocks and shares in defence companies went through the floor. And the positive of investing in defence, that you get all kinds of nice things you can sell on the private market as a off shoot from defence tech, dried up. Clearest example of that, cellular communications, or the internet. Wont get anything like that now. Even my father, who worked for the yanks on one of their airbases in the UK, never got paid so well, or treated so well. No, we didnt really gain much from the cold war ending, if anything I think we shot ourselves in the foot. Russia gained massively from the end of the cold war. And due to clueless leadership, its now thrown every single benefit from it away. Not ot worry, im sure you will all benefit massively from this new cold war you built for yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 11 hours ago, Stargrunt6 said: Best response: Missile salesman will say this until the next Thunder Run happens. If a tank is moving slowly, it seems a reasonable bet that its not being utilized correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perun Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Isolation complication? US finds it's ha .. Read more at: http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/93204397.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnthejock Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Some interesting articles on Russian oil trade and repercussions outside of EU/west. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-saudi-arabia-doubles-q2-russian-fuel-oil-imports-power-generation-2022-07-14/ https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-products-saudi-arabia-egypt-fuel-imports-sanctions-ukraine-2022-6?op=1 https://en.mercopress.com/2022/07/28/brazilian-oil-sales-to-china-and-india-drop-significantly-as-russia-moves-in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 58 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: If a tank is moving slowly, it seems a reasonable bet that its not being utilized correctly. That seems like a huge call. Most of the time it will be sitting in reserve somewhere, or perhaps on some road march, and most of the other time it is deployed it will be hidden and waiting to ambush or attack. Even in some assault it is unlikely to involve some constant maneuver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETAC21 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 A look at HIMARS https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208?s=20&t=PxIyXZJWG3MfJEk0vgIWrA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alejandro_ Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 (edited) 59 minutes ago, johnthejock said: Some interesting articles on Russian oil trade and repercussions outside of EU/west. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-saudi-arabia-doubles-q2-russian-fuel-oil-imports-power-generation-2022-07-14/ Other countries like Iran are also being affected. Russia offers cheap oil so they lose market share. 22 minutes ago, RETAC21 said: A look at HIMARS https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208?s=20&t=PxIyXZJWG3MfJEk0vgIWrA Very informative, many thanks. Note use of old processors as more capability is simply not needed. Edited July 29, 2022 by alejandro_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 16 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: In this logic, how it became possible that West created economic giant out of China? Back in 1990th, economy of Soviet Ukraine alone was bigger then one of China, if i remember correctly.... The west didn't do anything more than relax the frustration efforts and permit somewhat free trade in return initially for an anti-USSR alliance of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yama Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, KV7 said: The west didn't do anything more than relax the frustration efforts and permit somewhat free trade in return initially for an anti-USSR alliance of sorts. I don't think anyone truly had an idea what kind of growth PRC really had in store, likely not even the Chinese themselves. At around 2000, people began to take note and projections of what China can become - with current growth rate - began to appear - but always with the caveat "but of course, such growth is not sustainable in real world". And the bottom line is that China-West economic alliance was enormously profitable for the West, in the short term: and that's always the farthest West will plan ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam_S Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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