Kiev Is Burning

[Huba]

Was that indeed a SAM as this tweet claims, and not a BM-30/ BM-27 salvo? 

[bojan]

Will ask people who should know a difference.

[Roman Alymov]

Video of French SPGs transported by short train (probably to avoid detection)

https://t.me/Mikle1On/3531

[Roman Alymov]

Meanwhile pro-Ukrainians are converting small tourist boats on Dniper into gunboats

https://t.me/periskop_pacific/958

[Roman Alymov]

"The commander of the 6th Separate Guards Cossack Motorized Rifle Regiment named after Matvey Platov, Hero of the LPR Vladimir Polupoltinnykh showed a captured M249 SAW machine gun, which was captured after the liquidation of a sabotage group in Zolotoye."

https://t.me/marochkolive/28044

[Cynik75]

14 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

"The commander of the 6th Separate Guards Cossack Motorized Rifle Regiment named after Matvey Platov, Hero of the LPR Vladimir Polupoltinnykh showed a captured M249 SAW machine gun, which was captured after the liquidation of a sabotage group in Zolotoye."

https://t.me/marochkolive/28044

He said not directly that LPR army do no take POW from ukrainian specgroups... 

[glenn239]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

If true, they aren’t doing that well given their advantage. The progress in the last week seems to be better measured in meters than km.

Two things.  First, I wouldn't know what the proper level of progress would be against a determined enemy armed with massive numbers of excellent quality hand held missiles.   Given the way Stuart went  on about Javelin missiles for years before the war, you'd think that it's a miracle that the Russians are advancing at all given that the Ukrainians have thousands of them.

Second, I think the point you are missing is that the Russian strategy appears to be to maximize the number of Ukrainian casualties while minimizing their own losses.   We know from endless news reports now that the Ukrainian army is being gutted to a level far beyond its ability to replace for either equipment or trained manpower.  What we don't know is what damage is being done to the Russian army.  That is to say, if the Russians could inflict a 25:1 casualty ratio if they hold their advance to 1km per week, or they can have a 1:1 casualty ratio by trying to move 20km in a week, they would have to be pretty stupid to pick the 1:1 ratio.  Yet, you appear to be saying they should do that.  Why?

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Cynik75 said:

He said not directly that LPR army do no take POW from ukrainian specgroups... 

Not only this groups.... It is civil war, and civil wars in Russia are always very brutal. But at the same time sometimes it takes very WWI-style forms of trench trade between sides

"The present(ed) footage is not a new material as it comes from a  report made by our troops and hasn't been given to the public before. 

On the Popasnaya front, our men traded ten crates of canned food to the Ukrainian fighters for an American Javelin ATGM, a German Panzerfaust and two domestically made grenade launchers. It was a pretty fair trade-off."

https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/15010

P.S. Helmet cam video from previous owners of this machinegun https://t.me/marochkolive/28069

Edited June 24, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

And the cupboard is bare...

Colin's points looked all correct to me, but the cupboard is not bare.  The USAF could intervene tomorrow and have an immediate effect.  I believe Stuart is saying this could and should happen.  But, they will not, and the reason they will not is because the US military does not like the escalation dynamics.  So what we have here is a fundamental disconnect between reality and Western ideology.  The patch is to shovel in war losing amounts of aid to Ukraine.  But, the Ukrainians appear to be starting to see through the ruse and frustration is growing.  Zelensky needs to go as the first step, (because he is intellectually incapable of dealing with the situation as it actually exists and will destroy Ukraine rather than alter his strategy), then the new leader needs to reappraise the situation based upon the fundamental fact that the West is unwilling to accept the level of risk necessary for Ukraine to win this war.

Edited June 24, 2022 by glenn239

[glenn239]

9 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

On the Popasnaya front, our men traded ten crates of canned food to the Ukrainian fighters for an American Javelin ATGM, a German Panzerfaust and two domestically made grenade launchers. It was a pretty fair trade-off."

https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/15010

The Russian army will obviously be looking to expand these types of trades to the maximum extent possible.  For example, a Ukrainian unit in static trench positions on a backwater front might want not to be bombarded daily, and could pay for the service with some amount of Western equipment.  "A Javelin a day keeps the rockets at bay."

Drones have great potential in this area too, because they allow for covert negotiations between the armies without direct exposure.  Opposing units can talk via drone courier without higher HQ even knowing about it.

[seahawk]

Russia starting to mobilize

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1540202798070919169?s=20&t=gexTaTnpwN7tREFrcBzj7g

[Roman Alymov]

When rush to publicity might be the problem:

Pro-Russians have released the video of pro-Ukr POWs  - https://t.me/boris_rozhin/54876 Note the guy at 0:42 - nothing special, just one among many others

But pro-Ukrainians in Kiev rushed to identify him  as Maxim Butkevich, Maidan activist and  journalist for many Ukrainian TV channels (and BBC), who was also trying to leverage "revolutions" in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/54896 

here from 30:37

 

 

[bojan]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Was that indeed a SAM as this tweet claims, and not a BM-30/ BM-27 salvo? 

Friend thing BUK, but is not sure, but it is definitely not BM-27 or BM-30.

[Huba]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

Friend thing BUK, but is not sure, but it is definitely not BM-27 or BM-30.

Thanks for looking into it! If that's not   a MLRS, then Buk ( i don't think they have Kubs there) is the only remaining option. 

[crazyinsane105]

Well this is interesting! Didn't realize the Russians were up to this:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-decade-long-secret-sabotage-152921901.html

 

 

[RETAC21]

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Colin's points looked all correct to me, but the cupboard is not bare.  The USAF could intervene tomorrow and have an immediate effect.  I believe Stuart is saying this could and should happen.  But, they will not, and the reason they will not is because the US military does not like the escalation dynamics.  So what we have here is a fundamental disconnect between reality and Western ideology.  The patch is to shovel in war losing amounts of aid to Ukraine.  But, the Ukrainians appear to be starting to see through the ruse and frustration is growing.  Zelensky needs to go as the first step, (because he is intellectually incapable of dealing with the situation as it actually exists and will destroy Ukraine rather than alter his strategy), then the new leader needs to reappraise the situation based upon the fundamental fact that the West is unwilling to accept the level of risk necessary for Ukraine to win this war.

If you want to go full retard, just nuke Russia, at the price of a few million lives you show what you can REALLY do. 

[bojan]

4 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Well this is interesting! Didn't realize the Russians were up to this:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-decade-long-secret-sabotage-152921901.html

It utterly ignores a fact that Ukrainians had no money before 24.2. I know they were interested in locally produced Grad rockets, with extended range, but they were interested in 200 pieces, while at same time Greece was interested in few 1000s + license + technology transfer + other things. Guess who got undivided attention?

Same happened with mortar ammo, quantities they could pay for or terms of payment they could afford were 2nd (or 3rd...) best, and no deal was made. Some ammo was sold, 60mm mortar ammo in particular, latest production I have seen is 2019, but you don't win war by buying ~1500 pieces of 60mm mortar ammo.

Edited June 24, 2022 by bojan

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Yama]

9 hours ago, bojan said:

Very weird. Loss of control = self destruct, at least with SA-3/6.

I have seen videos of similar events couple of times - once some fUSSR system, I think Tor, and once from Patriot.

[mandeb48]

Awkward questions: air supremacy over Ukraine and its consequences

https://topwar.ru/198065-neudobnye-voprosy-gospodstvo-v-vozduhe-nad-ukrainoj-i-ego-posledstvija.html

conclusion:

If the RF Armed Forces can seize strategic air supremacy over Ukraine, even if at the risk of certain losses, then it is vital to do so. If not, then this is an occasion to seriously think about the organization of training and the technical equipment of the Russian Air Force.

[crazyinsane105]

https://youtu.be/JOSQNhbVofg
 

Looks like another invasion of Kharkiv is on the horizon…

[ex2cav]

11 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Two things.  First, I wouldn't know what the proper level of progress would be against a determined enemy armed with massive numbers of excellent quality hand held missiles.   Given the way Stuart went  on about Javelin missiles for years before the war, you'd think that it's a miracle that the Russians are advancing at all given that the Ukrainians have thousands of them.

Second, I think the point you are missing is that the Russian strategy appears to be to maximize the number of Ukrainian casualties while minimizing their own losses.   We know from endless news reports now that the Ukrainian army is being gutted to a level far beyond its ability to replace for either equipment or trained manpower.  What we don't know is what damage is being done to the Russian army.  That is to say, if the Russians could inflict a 25:1 casualty ratio if they hold their advance to 1km per week, or they can have a 1:1 casualty ratio by trying to move 20km in a week, they would have to be pretty stupid to pick the 1:1 ratio.  Yet, you appear to be saying they should do that.  Why?

I agree, the javelin thing seemed really overblown here. Though it goes all the way back the panzerfaust. "Are tanks obsolete? Every infantryman will be able to kill a tank!" Reality doesn't work like that. 

The Russians have reverted to the mean and are blowing everything up with artillery before moving in. 

[Junior FO]

On 6/23/2022 at 9:13 PM, glenn239 said:

He says 50,000 to 70,000 Russian shells per day versus 3,000 to 6,000 Ukrainian shells.  Factor in the drone imbalance on top of that.

On 6/24/2022 at 2:06 AM, Josh said:

If true, they aren’t doing that well given their advantage. The progress in the last week seems to be better measured in meters than km.

On 6/24/2022 at 2:23 AM, crazyinsane105 said:

I believe it’s on the entire front though, no? Along a 1000km front, is 50-60k shells going to make such a significant difference where progress can be swift? 

 

If 50-60k shells were true that would be upwards of 3000+ tonnes of ammunition per day (underestimated given I'm ignoring charge weight to account for unknown number of 122).

To put that into perspective, that would be about half the daily consumption of all German forces committed at Zitadelle from 5.-14 July. The average daily ammo consumption of the entire German Army in the 1940 campaign for France was about 2000 tonnes.

This is not accounting for MLRS tonnage which would be proportionally massive.

50'000-60'000 rounds per day would need a thousand guns, or about 80+ Artillery Battalions firing an average 50 rounds a day.

These are big numbers that are being thrown around, with little appreciation for what they mean in reality.