Kiev Is Burning

[Ssnake]

I split off the energy grid debate to here:

 

[Yama]

Short clip from Czech TV shown in YLE (link says it should be watchable outside Finland), showing 19-year old Slovakian volunteer 'Alex', who seems to be in shock when shells fall nearby. After that experience, he tells that "this is not for me" and leaves the front.

Polar opposite opinion from somewhat older Finnish volunteer who says he has "never been happier anywhere but here". Couple of notes: "Most Russian soldiers are quite fearful, but what I heard for example from Kharkiv direction, some outfits are quite capable." They warn about underestimating the Russians. What the Ukrainians need? "Better fire directing. When a new gun arrives from the West, the crew trains couple of days and then its sent to the front." They describe Ukrainian artillery control as 'pretty atrocious to our eyes', though noting that the time constraints Ukrainians have are very understandable.

They talk about seeing 'things' on the front which were 'purely animalistic', but don't go to details which atrocities they have seen, or by whom.

[Roman Alymov]

29 minutes ago, Josh said:

In an interesting twist, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call that Kyiv and Moscow “should push for a proper settlement” in the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to a Chinese readout of the call.

No doubt President Putin's answer was something like "We are pushing, but Kiev side is turning it down". Generally, this war is massive benefit fro China as every day of it is reducing the chances of West negotiating with Russian pro-Western elite Russia's neutrality or even support in future conflict between West and China.

By the way new claimed figures of pro-Ukr losses below. Of course they should be taken with big grain of solt: from one side, Kiev Gov need to keep acknowleged losses figures as low as possible to boost morale inside the country - but on other side they need to claim high losses to get new toys from West quick

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia

Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.

[Roman Alymov]

Video of street fighting from Gennady Dubovoy, one of the best pro-Russian Donbass war reporters (he is actually not reporter, but pro-Russian volunteer with camera)

Mixed group of ecperienced pro-Russians, "Chechens" (some of them ethnic Russians, despite of Akhmad badges) and pro-Russian mobilized reservists clearing Kamyshevakha settlement, under general command of "Talib". Note tank damaged by RPG, but safely rolling back (18+)

Until 2:22 - briefing and departure, note Chechens are back to their fashion to not wear body armor. The variety of uniforms is also striking. 

2:22 to 3:12 - entering the settlement under the cover of a tank.

3:12-7:39 - sweep under the cover of the same tank

7:39-8:39 - The tank was hit, but retaun mobility

8:39-14:00 - Fire exchange. Enemy's attempt to cut off part of the squad from the main forces. From 12:40 there are problems with communication and coordination of units, safely resolved

14:00 - until the end - The life and death of the militia soldier (two radios - probably platoon commander)

 

[Roman Alymov]

Part 2 of the same video from Kamyshevakha

Until 2:22 - briefing Syria-style

2:22-5:44 - enter the village under the cover of the tank No.610.

5:44-7:00 - cleaning. From 6:33 - grenade launchers

7:00-9:00 - progress has become more active. Along two parallel streets. Under the cover of two tanks already. The second tank is named "KARAS" (crucian carp). At 8:35 the fighter nicknamed "Czech" (may alsom mean "Chechen")... Probably his last lifetime image. A few minutes before the death.

9:03 - "Czech" is killed.

9:40-11:19 - the tank is working, then leaving for reload.

11:19-14:37 - on the tank-destroyed positions pro-Ukrainians

14:37 -  Dubovoy is talking with frightened local about the USSR paradise.

16:40-17:33 - another KIA pro-Ukrainian.

from 17:33 - Kamyshevakha is completely liberated, prto-Ukrainians retreated to the next village. 

 

[Roman Alymov]

Text from Andrey "Murz" Morozov explaining how pro-Russian volunteers see this war, and describing what i call "Appeasement of the West" party (source in Russian  https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2153370.html ):

......... As Comrade Grubnik often says, "ours" will not come. All "ours" are us.

I will expand this idea.

The Russian state lost this war back in 2014. It did not want this war, it sought to get away from it, to negotiate, not understanding that that is it, Alles. Russia is scheduled for slaughter, the burning of fifty Russians in a "European country" does not cause any upheavals in the "mass consciousness of the layman", does not cause anything at all, even if it gets into the news at all.

Then the Russian state arranged a long-term trade on the blood of the defenders of Donbass. We haggled as expected. And there was no choice left - either to fight, or the current political regime will soon fall, having lost first Donbass, and then Crimea.

When they decided to officially fight, they decided once again to step into a pile called "save the state of Ukraine" and quickly change the government in Kiev, inspired by the total bullshit of reports, reports, reports, "analysts". Well, it can't be that we invested so much money in Medvedchuk and K, and he turned out to be completely useless.

But it can. It turned out. And it turned out to be completely predictable. And all the blood shed by Donetsk and Luhansk reservists in February and March, which did not allow the Ukrainians to pull troops from the Donbass to Kharkov and Kiev, was in vain. "De-escalation," yes.

And now we are engaged in straining the remnants of our combat-ready infantry against the Ukrainian defense. So far, these remnants are somehow saved from the final extermination by the work of the gunners, but the losses are coming, and to compensate them with diabetics and disabled people is simply ridiculous.

The guardians (name usually used to label internet people who support Russian Gov actions even when  they are obviously stupit, pretending it was tricky plan or just ok - RA), of course, will find a hundred thousand arguments about why it is necessary to shoot yourself in the legs with such frequency and accuracy, but these are such special amazing people, they have such a job.

Reasonable people need to get used to the idea, if someone has not got used to it since May 2014, that the Russian state absolutely cannot win this war. BECAUSE HE DOESN'T WANT TO. The Russian state does not want a red (ESPECIALLY red) banner of Victory over Bankovya (Kiev street where Gov is located  - RA). The Russian state does not want Kiev back to Russia. He does not want the real denazification of the whole of Ukraine. He does not want to crush the reptile of Ukrainian Nazism.

The Russian state does not want a Russian victory, it wants a negotiated settlement. Because after the "agreement" there will still be chances to live somewhere other than Russia, to get mediacal care in old age in Germany, Israel or Switzerland. To see how their children with foreign passports calmly walk around London and Paris. To implement the unspoken "Well, we're okay, we were born and grew up in this dump-Russia-USSR, but the kids, the kids need to be in Civilization,  as white people"

They think so. They think exactly and only so. Therefore, their unwillingness to win the war is absolutely logical. And the massive long-term sabotage is absolutely logical.

And the West understands this very well. And it will try to exploit these hopes and aspirations of our leaders. To defeat Russia and destroy us as a people.

So only the Russian people, our civil society, can win this war (if they can). Simply on the instinct of self-preservation, if we have it massively enough preserved. Unlike the compradors in power, we have no other country except Russia. If we lose, we will perish as a nation, a people, a country, we will lose the opportunity to have our own state. Now we don't really have it either, and it will end with the fact that there will be no chance to have any other. A new edition of the "Ost Plan".

So at least until the moment when the AFU or their allies prepare the necessary reserves and inflict serious, large-scale counterattacks on our troops, until the moment when it becomes completely indecent to turn a blind eye to the current situation, we will have to fight without any mobilization and martial law in the Russian Federation. In a situation when the fighting on our part is conducted by terribly insufficient, poorly trained and poorly equipped forces. Accordingly, we will have to somehow train and equip these forces "on a voluntary basis" in order to incur fewer losses and kill more Nazis at the same time.

We need a victory. Our state does not need a victory.
That is how it is.

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

Gallery of improvised armor on Rus Army trucjs

https://t.me/russianonwars/1097

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

No doubt President Putin's answer was something like "We are pushing, but Kiev side is turning it down". Generally, this war is massive benefit fro China as every day of it is reducing the chances of West negotiating with Russian pro-Western elite Russia's neutrality or even support in future conflict between West and China.

There's also talk today of a new G8 including China, India, Russia, Iran, Indonesia, Mexico etc.  Not sure how feasible this will be, but this will also have come from this call presumably.  Sino-Russian ties are strengthening.  Meanwhile, divisions in the EU between the east and the west that is not keen to play the role of economic martyr,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/15/ukraine-war-support-inflation-europe-poll-yougov/

The further the EU pushes down this path of economic self-affliction, the worse the divisions in the EU will become.

Quote

Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.

Now that's the first time I think the Ukrainians have been honest about their casualties.  An army fighting in the open does not take 300 air and 700 artillery strikes per day without suffering in this ballpark of losses.  Any inkling of Russian daily casualties?  I'm thinking that if Ukraine's losses are in this region that the Russian are losing maybe 50 per day killed or wounded?

[seahawk]

The self destruction of the west, will lead to a new global balance of power.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, I believed thats called Anarchy.

 

[Roman Alymov]

 

[seahawk]

The targeted shelling of civilians by the the separatists makes me sick.

[Roman Alymov]

Rus TV report from Kamyshevakha, at 0:50-1:45 - drone video of pro-Ukrainians retreating under cover of own tank. Interesting nicknames of Chechen commanders onterviewed - "Mojahed", "Hamas", "Akhmad-1" (their regimental commander). In Dubovoy's video group commander was "Talib".

 

[ink]

23 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Rus TV report from Kamyshevakha, at 0:50-1:45 - drone video of pro-Ukrainians retreating under cover of own tank. Interesting nicknames of Chechen commanders onterviewed - "Mojahed", "Hamas", "Akhmad-1" (their regimental commander). In Dubovoy's video group commander was "Talib".

I like how the TV lady is calling Russian forces "Soyuzne sile"... Like "allied forces", right? But could it also be read as "union forces" (i.e. the Soviet Union)?

 

EDIT: Also, are Ukrainian forces being labelled as "nationalists"? All this language stuff is really fun. Like the Americans in... well, just about every war that I can think of in modern times.

Edited June 16, 2022 by ink

[Perun]

Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-06-10/ukraine-ammunition-battlefield-prospects-6303189.html

[jmsaari]

17 hours ago, Perun said:

Turkey wants written response from Finland, Sweden over NATO bid concerns

Ankara is accusing the Nordic neighbours of providing a safe haven for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), listed as a "terrorist" group by Turkey and its Western allies.

Turkey said on Wednesday that it was waiting for a "written response" from Sweden and Finland to Ankara's objections to their NATO bids.

 

"We have transmitted our questions in writing to these two countries," Turkey Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters.

"Now we're waiting for their written responses," he said.

The two Nordic countries reversed decades of military non-alignment by applying for NATO memberships in May, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Any NATO membership deal must, however, be unanimously approved by all 30 members of the alliance, and Turkey has thrown a spanner in the works and blocked their bids.

 

Ankara is accusing the Nordic neighbours of providing a safe haven for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), listed as a "terrorist" group by Turkey and its Western allies.

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told members of his party on Wednesday that "as long as Sweden and Finland don't adopt concrete measures on the fight against terrorism, our position will not change."

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday, during a visit to Sweden, that NATO was working "hard and actively" to resolve Turkey's concerns "as soon as possible".

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin acknowledged on Tuesday that the Nordic bids could stall if agreement with Turkey is not reached before a summit later in June.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/turkey-wants-written-response-from-finland-sweden-over-nato-bid-concerns/article65530323.ece

I'm still wondering what's behind all this, does the sultan think he can squeeze something out for himself, how much is posturing for the domestic show, or does he have a deal with Rus to block it, period, and if so then what's he getting out of it. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by jmsaari

[Mistral]

35 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

I'm still wondering what's behind all this, does the sultan think he cant squeeze something out for himself, how much is posturing for the domestic show, or does he have a deal with Rus to block it, period, and if so then what's he getting out of it. 

I said it before. He hates the west and has been cultivating that hatred for decades now.  And he is best buddies with the Tsar.  My guess is that Russia will be his safe heaven if he is toppled somehow.

[Angrybk]

The whole Finland Is strong! Thing seems pretty silly at this point, you guys don’t have a good defense against a country that’s willing to suffer major losses and has all the artillery. 

[BansheeOne]

Monthly update of IfW Kiel's Ukraine Support Tracker. By share of GDP, the Baltic States and Poland remain in the top spots due to relative size, but the US has come up a lot with the recent huge financial aid packages.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/?cookieLevel=not-set

[sunday]

https://gab.com/ErikDuPre/posts/108486575311946769

Quote

Donbass Today

‘What was done against the Donbass people can be done to anyone, anywhere. Why? Just because they defend their culture, their language, their Motherland.’ Janus Putkonen, a Finnish Journalist, was one of the first to tell the truth about the situation in Ukraine and Donbass. He was at the centre of events in 2014. Today he keeps fulfilling his mission. Thanks to Janus, people in the West can know the reality and not just what is reported by Western media.

 

[jmsaari]

2 hours ago, Angrybk said:

The whole Finland Is strong! Thing seems pretty silly at this point, you guys don’t have a good defense against a country that’s willing to suffer major losses and has all the artillery. 

Define good defence... Russia would be in for a bad surprise i suspect and they would find their artillery having a lot harder time and starting to reduce in numbers at a surprising rate when the opponent has modern counter-battery radars, can use that for accurate long-range fires, and troops are drilled for camouflage and dispersion throughout the military. 

The bad surprise part of course is where the problem is, based on UKR evidence, rational decision-making about how their invasion attempt might be expected to go is not something one can count on for their part which makes deterrence based on own defences a bit less useful, hence the whole NATO application. Even with the RUS would be in for a bad surprise here, it would obviously not be fun to have country in ruins, 5-digit casualty figures and almost inevitably a chunk of eastern border lost anyway. Living quite literally within artillery range of the RUS border right now, the sultan backing off with some nominal victory over his demands would something very much to hope for....

Edited June 16, 2022 by jmsaari

[MiGG0]

13 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

Define good defence... Russia would be in for a bad surprise i suspect and they would find their artillery having a lot harder time and starting to reduce in numbers at surprising rate when the opponent is has modern counter-battery radars, can use that for accurate long-range fires, and troops are drilled for camouflage and dispersion throughout the military. 

 

Yep, Finns have trained their forces against RUS artillery advantage (in numbers) since WWII. Tube for tube Finnish artillery is way more effective than Russian one and it is quite large aswell. 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Mistral said:

I said it before. He hates the west and has been cultivating that hatred for decades now.  And he is best buddies with the Tsar.  My guess is that Russia will be his safe heaven if he is toppled somehow.

He legitimately hates the west for his own personal reasons and politically it is useful to him to blame the west for anything that goes wrong. Right now he's fighting for his life and desperately looking for a hand out or at least some headlines that have nothing to do with the Turkish economy. Lira is currently 17+ : 1USD. US/NATO will probably just wait for the next election to see what happens, and over the long run starve Turkey out until it allows the expansion. Turkey no longer is needed to provide any kind of security against Russia and it is had generally been purely a hindrance in US mideast policy; there's no reason for their needs or wants to be catered to and they are economically vulnerable.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Josh

[Yama]

2 hours ago, Angrybk said:

The whole Finland Is strong! Thing seems pretty silly at this point, you guys don’t have a good defense against a country that’s willing to suffer major losses and has all the artillery. 

I'm on the record of saying that Finland would encounter similar problems as Russians and Ukrainians if we really did mobilize our entire field army, owing to lack of real-world practice in moving, supplying and maneuvering large formations.

Materially, I think we're pretty well off, with some notable exceptions: first is the SAM coverage which is just woefully inadequate - a result of conscious choice between using the money on fighters or missiles. Second is drones, where we are just 20 years behind, well, everybody. FDF position was that we will wait for the future and buy systems when they are mature and proven, but the future is here already.

[Soren Ras]

11 minutes ago, Yama said:

 Second is drones, where we are just 20 years behind, well, everybody.

I think you have so much company in where you are in that area, that the last word in your sentence becomes null and void. Most countries are way behind on the curve here, so it is probably more fair to say that you are 20 years behind where you would want to be...