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Kiev Is Burning


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2 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

To me, this is evidence that Putin can't have the 20th century back. Nobody is afraid to criticize Russia any more.

 

Honestly, this is a bit dumb. Firstly, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union at the time of the Katyn massacre, which means some of the perpetrators may have been Ukrainian. Also, Putin commemorated the Katyn massacre with Polish officials like ten years ago and the Polish movie about the events was aired on Russian state TV.

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2 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

"Vlad says half or slightly less of all weapons given by the US and Britain operate in Ukraine. This time too, the reason is Russian radio interference in the region.

- For example, a Switchblade aircraft is really effective in Afghanistan, where the enemy is unable to harass. The use of airplanes requires perfect conditions. They are not here."

I saw a Russian claim which referred to Switchblade 'nearly harmless', likely meaning the smaller version. "It barely scratches our vehicles".

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40 minutes ago, Yama said:

I saw a Russian claim which referred to Switchblade 'nearly harmless', likely meaning the smaller version. "It barely scratches our vehicles".

That's probably true vs anything armored, but that isn't really the point of the system I think. Can't imagine a truck just shrugging of a 40mm (if wiki is correct about the 300's payload).

Also I don't think anyone inside an armored vehicle can really identify if they have been hit by a switchblade 300 or something else.

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1 hour ago, ink said:

Honestly, this is a bit dumb. Firstly, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union at the time of the Katyn massacre, which means some of the perpetrators may have been Ukrainian. Also, Putin commemorated the Katyn massacre with Polish officials like ten years ago and the Polish movie about the events was aired on Russian state TV.

Well thats one way of putin it...

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-air-disaster-that-haunts-polish-politics/

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Missing Billions Threaten to Break Britain’s Energy Market

The war in Ukraine has exposed the vulnerability of the energy industry across Europe, but the UK market is looking increasingly perilous for suppliers and consumers for reasons closer to home.

...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/billions-in-unpaid-bills-threaten-to-break-britain-s-energy-market

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1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Did you read that article? It says most Poles (remember, this is one of the countries with the strongest anti-Russian sentiment) don't buy into the idea that the crash was anything other than an accident. Even though a major political party has been trying to peddle the conspiracy theory for years.

 

Anyway, if Politico calls something to do with Russia a "myth", who am I to argue.

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9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Been watching for months trying to get a sense of where this is going.  Not seeing how any outcome that looks feasible would be better than if Zelensky had just gone with the Minsk Accords and maintained a more neutral stance overall.  The Western weapons I don't think are going to have a war turning impact, but will make things less stable going forward.

Yep, so no matter what the outcome, it's going to be worse.

They'll slice off 20% of the country then fortify for the long haul.  NATO and the EU are also setting up for a long struggle as well, with the superlative planning that comes with intellectual elites.  For example, the 2022 global grain crisis may well cause millions of refugees to flee Africa searching for food, and Finland entering NATO will open a potential 1,300km general admission turn style for them to march right to the EU chow line.  Now that's quality planning.

The Finland and Sweden thing makes no sense for them. They have been secure for decades, and they were both happy playing both sides. 

It can be argued that Putin created his worst nightmare, politically at least. However. this doesn't strengthen Nato much at all.  Western $$ will pour in , I wasn't sure the 2 countries needed that. Turkey has been making some hay over it, so it will cost some more $$ to quiet them down.  I don't think the Biden administration looked at long term costs for this, and went for the quicker political victory. 

Anyway, its good to not live in Europe right now. No insult intended. 

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Quote

Ukraine’s 127th Territorial Defence Brigade at the border with Russia. In this area, near the settlement of Ternova, they’ve pushed the invaders out of Kharkiv region altogether.

FS1-B4n3-WYAIj-B6-L.jpg

 

Just for the record, the only Ternova G-maps finds is on the other side of Kharkow ~100 km away from the border. 

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11 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

The Finland and Sweden thing makes no sense for them. They have been secure for decades, and they were both happy playing both sides. 

It can be argued that Putin created his worst nightmare, politically at least. However. this doesn't strengthen Nato much at all.  Western $$ will pour in , I wasn't sure the 2 countries needed that. Turkey has been making some hay over it, so it will cost some more $$ to quiet them down.  I don't think the Biden administration looked at long term costs for this, and went for the quicker political victory. 

Anyway, its good to not live in Europe right now. No insult intended. 

You mean as secure as Ukraine was?

It makes perfect sense to us. And you don't seem to know nothing about Finnish military. Maybe those 280 000 troops (plus 870 000 trained reserves) are just irrelevant. :)

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11 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I think in 2021 Zelensky's army was building up for a massive offensive on the rebel enclave, to crush it once and for all.  

An any Putin shill does, but that doesn't make it real.

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5 hours ago, Adam_S said:

Uh-oh. Roman had better watch out.

If Roman gets mobilizes... based in which branch he served we are all fucked up.

Also zero proof of that claim.

Edited by bojan
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4 hours ago, Perun said:

As I remember Ukrainian army had concentrated ~45% of its army brigades just before Russia attacked and before Donbas forces mobilised

Maybe because they had 200.000 Russians on the border for the second time in a year?

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41 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

The Finland and Sweden thing makes no sense for them. They have been secure for decades, and they were both happy playing both sides. 

It can be argued that Putin created his worst nightmare, politically at least. However. this doesn't strengthen Nato much at all.  Western $$ will pour in , I wasn't sure the 2 countries needed that. Turkey has been making some hay over it, so it will cost some more $$ to quiet them down.  I don't think the Biden administration looked at long term costs for this, and went for the quicker political victory.

We've been, or at least felt, more or less secure as long as we thought we're dealing with a rational Kremlin leadership with realistic grasp of threats to themselves and their own means. Turns out that was not so, they seem to believe significant part of their own propaganda, and are willing to repeatedly use military force in ways that don't make any logical sense from a cost-benefit perspective. The only thing current Russian leadership seems to be wary of, is open confrontation with NATO, hence the urgent turn of course. With hindsight, this could have been seen long ago, but better late than never, and now that they're fully tied up in Ukraine, this may well be as late as can be before it becomes 'never'.

As for western $$ pouring in, I very much doubt that would be in any way happening here...

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1 hour ago, ink said:

Did you read that article? It says most Poles (remember, this is one of the countries with the strongest anti-Russian sentiment) don't buy into the idea that the crash was anything other than an accident. Even though a major political party has been trying to peddle the conspiracy theory for years.

 

Anyway, if Politico calls something to do with Russia a "myth", who am I to argue.

Let me do the honour of quoting one of the first paragraphs, since you seem to have missed it. :)

A significant minority of Poles did not believe that it was a tragic accident, as detailed in an official report. Instead, they saw the crash at a military airfield near the Russian city of Smolensk as a plot involving Polish and Russian leaders, mid-air explosions and cruel Russians executing survivors.

And you know what, I believe them. I too thought it was an accident, had no time for conspiracy theory. And then, a British air crash investigator looked at it. He has a rep for puncturing conspiracy theories, he debunked an Itavia DC9 being shot down by a NATO sidewinder theory, by the simple task of moving a panel in a reconstruction of the airliner, proving there was no magic hole.

So when he says the aircraft was on fire before it hit the ground, I think people should pay attention. Particularly when other British investigators examined the wreckage and found traces of explosive on the airframe.

https://news.sky.com/story/smolensk-crash-explosions-on-board-before-plane-hit-ground-investigator-says-11233792

 

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1 hour ago, Sardaukar said:

You mean as secure as Ukraine was?

It makes perfect sense to us. And you don't seem to know nothing about Finnish military. Maybe those 280 000 troops (plus 870 000 trained reserves) are just irrelevant. :)

You know, it constantly amazes me how little Americans actually know about European armies and airforces. Do they completely miss how many F35's you have just bought?

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20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You know, it constantly amazes me how little Americans actually know about European armies and airforces. Do they completely miss how many F35's you have just bought?

I do, but I keep an eye on such things.

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1 hour ago, ex2cav said:

The Finland and Sweden thing makes no sense for them. They have been secure for decades, and they were both happy playing both sides. 

It can be argued that Putin created his worst nightmare, politically at least. However. this doesn't strengthen Nato much at all.  Western $$ will pour in , I wasn't sure the 2 countries needed that. Turkey has been making some hay over it, so it will cost some more $$ to quiet them down.  I don't think the Biden administration looked at long term costs for this, and went for the quicker political victory. 

Anyway, its good to not live in Europe right now. No insult intended. 

 

Virtue signaling and cheap political points.

Remember when Trump was in office, all the left could do was gin up a narrative that he wanted to dissolve NATO.

Reality isn't a part of US politics anymore.

Edited by bfng3569
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4 hours ago, Yama said:

I saw a Russian claim which referred to Switchblade 'nearly harmless', likely meaning the smaller version. "It barely scratches our vehicles".

The 300 series is an anti infantry weapon, not an anti vehicle weapon. I think it's terminal effects are more like a 40mm grenade or 60mm mortar round, tops. Using it on a vehicle is probably a waste. The -600 series is the one with a Javelin warhead, but these apparently barely exist since the US never bought the system and has none in inventory. Apparently none of these have been sent to Ukr. 

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2 minutes ago, Josh said:

The 300 series is an anti infantry weapon, not an anti vehicle weapon. I think it's terminal effects are more like a 40mm grenade or 60mm mortar round, tops. Using it on a vehicle is probably a waste. The -600 series is the one with a Javelin warhead, but these apparently barely exist since the US never bought the system and has none in inventory. Apparently none of these have been sent to Ukr. 

 

If it lands on the hood that should be it for the engine. Maybe for the guys in the front seats too. 

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3 minutes ago, Josh said:

The 300 series is an anti infantry weapon, not an anti vehicle weapon. I think it's terminal effects are more like a 40mm grenade or 60mm mortar round, tops. Using it on a vehicle is probably a waste.

Should certainly be effective against soft-skinned vehicle, and it doesn't take much to punch a hole through BMP roof, either...

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27 minutes ago, bfng3569 said:

 

Virtue signaling and cheap political points.

Remember when Trump was in office, all the left could do was gin up a narrative that he wanted to dissolve NATO.

Reality isn't a part of US politics anymore.

Trump was pretty vocal about wanting the US to leave NATO even before he won the nomination in 2016. Congress was sufficiently worried about his intention to do so that it passed the NATO Support Act in 2019 with heavy bipartisan support (357-22). So "the narative" was definitely believed by many GOP representatives.

Edited by Josh
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38 minutes ago, Josh said:

Trump was pretty vocal about wanting the US to leave NATO even before he won the nomination in 2016. Congress was sufficiently worried about his intention to do so that it passed the NATO Support Act in 2019 with heavy bipartisan support (357-22). So "the narative" was definitely believed by many GOP representatives.

 

Part of the narrative and virtual signaling.

 

Charles Lane, Washington Post, March 21: So, I’d like to hear you say very specifically, you know, with respect to NATO, what is your ask of these other countries? Right, you’ve painted it in very broad terms, but do you have a percent of GDP that they should be spending on defense? Tell me more, because it sounds like you want to just pull the U.S. out.

Trump: No, I don’t want to pull it out. NATO was set up at a different time. NATO was set up when we were a richer country. We’re not a rich country anymore. We’re borrowing, we’re borrowing all of this money. We’re borrowing money from China, which is sort of an amazing situation. But it was a much different thing. NATO is costing us a fortune and yes, we’re protecting Europe with NATO but we’re spending a lot of money. Number one, I think the distribution of costs has to be changed. I think NATO as a concept is good, but it is not as good as it was when it first evolved.

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23 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Yandex-translation of article about DNR tankers in Mariupol: urban tank usage, tanks compared, tricks to prevent ammunition explosion if hit by ATGM http://k-politika.ru/ukropy-nas-xorosho-znayut-kakuyu-rol-sygrali-tanki-pri-vzyatii-mariupolya/?utm_source=warfiles.ru

Therefore, we have not been carrying a full BC (ammunition load  - RA) for a long time. Only the "conveyor" under your feet. Twenty-two shells are enough! Because if they "lock up", then with the hatches open and the empty ammunition, there are chances to get off with a concussion, but if they get into an unmechanized ammunition – and it stands in a circle of the tower – they will fall, then it is the end! Detonation. You 'll throw the tower right away…

 

Thanks for the link Roman. It seems that nobody remembers wars in Chechnya (about tanks no being used in cities).

When they referred to the ammunition, does it include the propellant charges? I was discussing it's role on why T-XX turrets pop up. They are placed in conformal tanks and containers (only bottom part exposed to sparks and fragments), but videos in Syria show the propellent cooking off before explosion.  Can the fire extinguishing system cope before projectiles are ignited?

Edited by alejandro_
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2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

...A significant minority of Poles did not believe that it was a tragic accident...

Sagnificant number of people also believe 9/11 conspiracy theories. So what?

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