Kiev Is Burning

[bfng3569]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Even a few hundred bodies isn’t easy to hide. We’d have satellite photos at this point, like we did for the mass graves in Bucha, Mariupol, etc. Mass graves just aren’t something folks can hide anymore, especially in Eastern Ukraine where you have god knows how many satellites going over the area. 
 

Absolutely no verification from the US or any Western country either. Just some news outlets taking the word of this recording and thinking it’s true.

How fast are beat up bodies decomposing there too?

[crazyinsane105]

14 minutes ago, bfng3569 said:

How fast are beat up bodies decomposing there too?

It makes more sense for the Russians to just leave their dead behind, that’s been more than well documented.

But collecting bodies and dumping them in mass graves? Why even do that when it’s easier to leave them where they die? Sounds cruel but requires a lot less effort, and less noticeable as well

[ClaymoreCA]

57 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

You’re thinking about this waaay too much based on a single Twitter report that claims the video geolocation. 
 

According to the news reporter himself, they were coming somewhere from Donetsk towards Mariupol and the area was under attack by both Tockhas and US supplied loitering munitions. So it’s very unlikely that the area the tank was hit was in that small town near Mariupol. US loitering munitions that can even take out tanks (the Switchblade 600s) haven’t even been delivered to Ukraine yet, as they aren’t even being produced in the US. 

Donetsk is a massive place, large swathes of it being in Ukrainian hands or at the front lines. 

So if this area is being hit by US loitering munitions, its more than well within range 
of Ukrainian artillery and yes, the Ukrainians do have laser guided artillery rounds and drones capable of guiding them. 

I’m not going to look at a single incident on Twitter and make a generalized assumption, especially when it’s very unclear where the tank has been hit. Which is why a Ukr artillery strike seems more reasonable to me as the tank isn’t near where the reporter is claiming it to be, but some other Twitter post is.

 

I’ve been very careful not to jump to assumptions super quick in this war based on info from Twitter. 

I think that a reasoned analysis is far better than your rapid dismissive "unsurprising artillery" conclusion. 

The information that you've provided is:

1. on the road to Mariupole

2. under attack from Tochka U and loitering munitions

3. occurred about 3 min from them

4.  it was a tank.

So,

#1 is supportive of the twitter geolocation to Novoazovs'k.  High confidence.  Supports my original post.

#2. I'm suspicious of this data.  There have been no other reports of Ukr artillery or Tochka strikes along this roadway during the entirety of the war.   Can you provide one?  If it was a Tochka, then a unitary warhead is unlikely as the blast doesn't look big enough.  If it's a submunition strike then its on the edge of being believable, but again I've heard zero reports of any kind of this activity along this route.  Low confidence. 

#2 if it was a loitering munition, what kind?  None of the loitering systems currently in Ukr hands (Switchblade 300, Phoenix Ghost, RAM II, or ST-35) have longer than 30 miles range.  That puts the operator either back at Mariupole (unlikely) or a local SOF/insurgent.  The latter supports my original posting that partisan/SOF/insurgent activity is happening behind the lines.  It's also not your "unsurprising artillery".

Excuse me if I don't understand the following:  "So if this area is being hit by US loitering munitions, its more than well within range of Ukrainian artillery and yes, the Ukrainians do have laser guided artillery rounds and drones capable of guiding them"

Being struck by loitering munitions does not mean it's within range of Ukr artillery.  Loitering munitions are employed by light infantry without the need for the supply chains of artillery.  

Are you suggesting that somewhere within the Ru zone of control there are pockets of land within practical Ukr artillery range of the road to Mariupole?   As far as laser guided rounds, I believe that the Bayraktar TB2 drones are the only Ukr drone assets with a laser designator.  Is there another?  Not beyond the realm of possibility, but the argument that it was artillery doesn't pass the smell test.  If it's not a laser designating drone, then it's being painted by ground troops working in close co-operation with a pocket of land within the Ru ZOC outfitted with Ukr artillery.  Wow.  I mean wow.  If true, that's really not deserving a one-line dismissive "unsurprising" response.

Edited May 12, 2022 by ClaymoreCA
3rd grade error of "their to there" fixed

[ClaymoreCA]

Submitted with a warning of graphic unsettling images.  Also submitted with a comment that these persons are the lowest scum and should be hounded unto the ends of the earth and brought to the dock for justice. 

 

[Perun]

[Perun]

US TAKES WHEAT OUT OF UKRAINE. WAR-TORN COUNTRY DOOMED TO FAMINE

In exchange for weapons and illusory prospects of becoming a member of the “European family”, the Kiev regime is dooming its own people to a protracted food crisis.

...

In the context of the impending global food crisis provoked by the Western sanctions against Russia and disruption of supply chains, the United States and European countries are aiming to replenish their reserves, thanks to the crops taken from the Ukrainian people.

...

https://southfront.org/us-takes-wheat-out-of-ukraine-war-torn-country-doomed-to-famine/

 

 

[lucklucky]

That is straight Russian propaganda.

[crazyinsane105]

11 minutes ago, Perun said:

US TAKES WHEAT OUT OF UKRAINE. WAR-TORN COUNTRY DOOMED TO FAMINE

In exchange for weapons and illusory prospects of becoming a member of the “European family”, the Kiev regime is dooming its own people to a protracted food crisis.

...

In the context of the impending global food crisis provoked by the Western sanctions against Russia and disruption of supply chains, the United States and European countries are aiming to replenish their reserves, thanks to the crops taken from the Ukrainian people.

...

https://southfront.org/us-takes-wheat-out-of-ukraine-war-torn-country-doomed-to-famine/

 

 

Wtf 😳 exactly how is the US taking wheat out of Ukraine again, considering that the vast majority of Ukrainian fertile farmland is actually closer to Russian controlled territory (or now controlled by Russia)? 

[rohala]

My understanding was that Ukraine is a net exporter of wheat and large stockpiles of grain are stuck waiting to be exported, originally by sea.

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Perun said:

US TAKES WHEAT OUT OF UKRAINE. WAR-TORN COUNTRY DOOMED TO FAMINE

In exchange for weapons and illusory prospects of becoming a member of the “European family”, the Kiev regime is dooming its own people to a protracted food crisis.

...

In the context of the impending global food crisis provoked by the Western sanctions against Russia and disruption of supply chains, the United States and European countries are aiming to replenish their reserves, thanks to the crops taken from the Ukrainian people.

...

https://southfront.org/us-takes-wheat-out-of-ukraine-war-torn-country-doomed-to-famine/

 

 

The plundering of the Ukraine by the evil west has already started. Only Russia can save the people from starvation now.

[Angrybk]

I know it’s fun to mock the “MSM” but this is a very tight article that addresses a lot of our questions about US intel sharing etc. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/11/ukraine-us-intelligence-sharing-war/

[Angrybk]

47 minutes ago, seahawk said:

The plundering of the Ukraine by the evil west has already started. Only Russia can save the people from starvation now.

Is there any way we can get you to stop the trolling? Your serious posts are quite interesting and nobody thinks your alternate troll persona is amusing. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

They detected even less than that in Bucha and Mariupol via satellites 🤷‍♀️ 
 

Again, a simple ‘intercepted’ call with no photographic evidence is no different than the thousands of Twitter posts that claimed Democrats stole the election in 2020 by stuffing ballots or throwing them out…but yeah, practically nothing came about it when investigated further.

 

Yes, but in Mariupol that was disturbed earth. In Bucha, they were looking for shapes on the ground that matched the dead alread seen in photos, and I seem to recall there were some on here that doubted those results also.

As far as phone taps, most of them seem borne out by later evidence. And what would be the point of faking it anyway? To make the world think Russia hs far higher losses than its admitting? That Putin cant be trusted to tell the truth? I think we kinda know that already.

Ive heard so many wild stories in this war that subsequently turned out to be true to completely reject this one out of hand. Put it on the shelf, call it 'not proven' by all means, but lets keep an open mind on it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Wtf 😳 exactly how is the US taking wheat out of Ukraine again, considering that the vast majority of Ukrainian fertile farmland is actually closer to Russian controlled territory (or now controlled by Russia)? 

In actual fact, there is masses of wheat already stockpiled that the Ukrainians want to see that they cannot get to market, not a little of which is in Odesa I gather. Its just the kind of Russian volte face agitprop I kind of expect.

In actual fact, the Russians are taking wheat, and farm machinery, and leaving no money in return for the transaction. The former is called trade. The latter is called theft. How very like a post Soviet state to try and pretend they are exactly the same thing.

[Roman Alymov]

28 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

In actual fact, there is masses of wheat already stockpiled that the Ukrainians want to see that they cannot get to market, not a little of which is in Odesa I gather. Its just the kind of Russian volte face agitprop I kind of expect.

"Ukrainians" (who will have nothing to eat this winter) or oligarchs of Ukraine, in allience with Western politicians?

32 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

In actual fact, the Russians are taking wheat, and farm machinery, and leaving no money in return for the transaction. The former is called trade. The latter is called theft. How very like a post Soviet state to try and pretend they are exactly the same thing.

In actual fact, you are taking your media reports as actual fact - while it is just another media story.

[MiGG0]

Pretty much as expected. Finland president and PM support for applying to NATO:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12442140

[Yama]

9 hours ago, Sardaukar said:

Interesting that Ukrainians have been able to push Russians back 20-25km around Kharkov.

So much for vaunted air and artillery superiority. 

Both apparently not so, especially former.

My real surprise has been totally anemic performance of RuAF.

I think that is bit of a perception fallacy. In Syria, RuAF published tons of videos of their strikes against various Rebel/Islamist targets and lots of people were like "Oh wow, they are much more capable than I would have thought". Now, they release relatively little footage, which people take it to mean that they are not actually flying much if at all.

Regarding Ukrainian advance on Kharkiv front, some time ago there was an Ukrainian report which complained about somebody putting up a "village X is liberated" message on twitter too quickly, as very soon afterwards Russian artillery hit the town and caused some losses. There also has not been much reports about heavy fighting around Kharkiv, nor we do see much in the ways of wrecks and captures. Seems the Russians are just gradually pulling out.

[Sardaukar]

2 minutes ago, Yama said:

..... (snip)

Seems the Russians are just gradually pulling out.

That seems to be bit strange. Either they are moving more forces to South or they are spent force.

There are theories that they are tempting UKR to attack Russia proper...but...why let Ukrainians within artillery range of main supply railroad? It would multiply Russia's problems if UKR would start to shell the supply line. 

[Yama]

5 minutes ago, Sardaukar said:

That seems to be bit strange. Either they are moving more forces to South or they are spent force.

I don't think they have that much forces there anymore, perhaps never did. After Russians gave up on Kiev, it was obvious there would not be any renewed push on Kharkiv either.

Advancing on Russian territory is a conundrum for Ukrainians, it would have obvious military advantages, but politically might be extremely disadvantageous.

[Sardaukar]

Just now, Yama said:

I don't think they have that much forces there anymore, perhaps never did. After Russians gave up on Kiev, it was obvious there would not be any renewed push on Kharkiv either.

Advancing on Russian territory is a conundrum for Ukrainians, it would have obvious military advantages, but politically might be extremely disadvantageous.

Not to mention it'd give Russia an excuse to do something extreme...like nukes or chemical weapons... I don't think anyone wants that sort of escalation...

[RETAC21]

11 minutes ago, Sardaukar said:

That seems to be bit strange. Either they are moving more forces to South or they are spent force.

There are theories that they are tempting UKR to attack Russia proper...but...why let Ukrainians within artillery range of main supply railroad? It would multiply Russia's problems if UKR would start to shell the supply line. 

This is a glass half full situation: if the glass is half full, the Russians are undertaking an ordered withdrawal to concentrate their limited forces on the izyum front. If the glass is half empty, they are being pushed back because they lack the forces to counterattack and retake the lost terrain.

In any case, it seems like the Russians recognise that they need to cut back on unprofitable advances up avenues where the "peace settlement" will forces them to pull back anyhow.

[Yama]

1 minute ago, Sardaukar said:

Not to mention it'd give Russia an excuse to do something extreme...like nukes or chemical weapons... I don't think anyone wants that sort of escalation...

I am certain that Ukraine's supporters have privatively warned them about that.

Most remarkable thing is of course that week into the war, it would have appeared completely preposterous that Ukrainian army could advance into Russia.

[Josh]

It looks like there's a Russian counter offensive in the southeast along at least five axes, as reported on liveuamap quoting the UA general staff. It looks like a second bridging attempt might have been successful. Makes me wonder if this is a Russian response to Ukr success in the north or if the offensive in the north was an attempt to pre-empt a known attack planned further south. To early to tell how successful it is yet but having troops across a bridge is certainly progress, presuming they don't get cut off again.

[Sardaukar]

Interesting article:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/did-russias-general-staff-miss-warnings-hard-campaign-ukraine

[bojan]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

Not really buying that twitter threads 1500 figure....

To say at least. 6 tanks, ~20 IFV/APCs, 5-6 other vehicles, even if lost with full crew will hardly make 300, let alone 1500+ dead.

Now, the question is why we have not seen pics from the ground so far?